LSB Community Prospect Project: Mid-Season #6
by thedirkatron on Jul 11, 2009 11:08 AM CDT
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PrintYay! No more unsigned draft picks up for discussion! Although I have to admit I will miss all the super fun discussion about why it's wrong to vote for them cause of the, uh... the, you know... wrongness of it all and whatnot.
After 229 votes, Matt Purke has won the right to be called the LSB Community #5 prospect!
The List So Far:
1. 1b, Justin Smoak
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. LHP, Martin Perez
4. RHP, Tanner Scheppers
5. LHP, Matt Purke
Time to move on to the vote for #6
Another interesting vote.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And, as always, please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
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The next tier to me is Font and Beavan and Borbon.
There’s a lot of other guys in this discussion, obviously, but those three are next for me and it’s a very tough call between them.
I’ve been giving this a lot of thought, and I think I have to go with Font here.
I know he’s young and raw and nowhere near as close as the other two, but his ceiling is just ridiculous. He has #1 starter potential, with a potential great fallback option as a shutdown back end of the bullpen arm just based off the fastball of his.
I think Beavan has a much better likelihood of being a help at the major league level, but I don’t see the same ceiling I do with Font, and I’ve gotta go with that ceiling here.
Borbon is totally different animal. I see him as a great CF option and a really valuable piece, but I don’t see any star potential here at all. A .750-.800 OPS CF’er with great defense is a great piece to have, but it can’t compare to Font’s ceiling.
Between Borbon and Beavan? Shit… I dunno. Hopefully I get to make that choice tomorrow.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
Jason Cole attended and charted Font's last start.
His detailed write-up concludes …
The bottom line is that Font still has a long way to go in his development. He must get more consistent with his command and his offspeed stuff. But the potential for above-average command and two solid secondary pitches is evident, and that hasn’t been the case in the past.
Font it is for me
He’s finally pitching, and showing quick progress even with all that time off. I like to vote on ceiling whenever possible and practical, and since Font is coming around I don’t think there is another pitcher yet ranked with a higher ceiling.
Main is next for me, I’m still a believer. It will probably take a year or more for that to look smart, since he may have this mystery illness for a while, but he’s still a top prospect and will show it when he’s healthy.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I (changed mine a little) have Beavan, Font, Main, Borbon, Hunter
as my next five. Mind you i am a huge Beavan proponent but i just see Brad Radke when i see him pitch. I think he is going to be a guy that controls the strike zone immensely well. With ideally an up the middle of Borbon, Andrus and Kinsler Beavan can have great success. A future back end of the rotation with him and Hunter is not bad at all. I think he will be in the roto by 2011 along with Hunter, Holland and Feliz plus a vet (Feldman?) to help out.
Font has had two amazing starts and could be better than any other pitcher we have eventually but i cant discount some of the control problems he has had. However, he is still incredibly young and looks eager to learn. For me Beavan’s age (he is so young), progress and less risk outweigh Font’s projectability and stuff…..BARELY. These next 7-10 spots are going to be a lot of fun to debate.
by Michael Cave on Jul 11, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Went Kiker here
Still such a young guy succeeding in AA. Even though ultimately he may end up in the pen I think he has just as good a shot as Beavan to have success in the rotation and I can’t put Ross above him until he does it in Hickory.
My next 4 would be Kiker, Beavan, Font, Ross
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Curious
where do you have borbon? at 10?
by Michael Cave on Jul 11, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
9
I wasn’t clear. Those are my next 4 pitchers. Ross slots in at 10 for me although the difference between 6 and 10 in this system is very minimal
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Gotcha
See i have kiker a little lower and Ross a little lower as well. Have Hunter above both of them and yes a lot of it has to do with his performance so far in the majors this yr. This is all about preference now. Very interesting because the guys with seemingly lower ceilings (Kiker, Hunter, Beavan) are all at AA or better and showing fairly well. The seemingly high ceiling guys left (Font, Ross) are at the lower levels so more room for something stunting their progress. Definitely a case of projectability over progress and I really cant argue with either side. Such a luxury…
by Michael Cave on Jul 11, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm probably in the minority
but I’m not a believer in Beavan just yet. His control is good but 90 mph fastball doesn’t scream top ten prospect to me. I also have huge doubts about Font’s health and secondary offerings.
Main has fallen by the wayside until his health situation has been resolved. Borbon doesn’t hit enough to excite me and I want to wait about three more spots for Hunter.
So Robbie Ross’ amazing numbers, good velocity, quality secondary stuff and a seeming knowledge of how to pitch and make guys miss makes him number six for me.
MadMax would be next.
So Beavans lack of velocity concerns you
Yet Max’s lack of hitting doesn’t?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
OK
But he says Main has fallen due to health concerns. Just trying to figure out his logic
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Max's problem is identifiable
he has wrist issues. Time and/or surgery fixes that. Rumor has it that the doctors say he just needs time to heal. Once healthy I have no doubt he’ll start hitting again.
Main has some mysterious illness that no one knows what exactly it is. Before that had major command issues and was all around bad last year and this year. I have no confidence that Main’s issues will be figured out and even if they are he resembles more N. Ramirez than Martin Perez at this time. Main can catch up next season but his celing is very questionable right now and the actual likelihood of him reaching it is even more in doubt.
Does that make my position more clear?
sure
I don’t necessarily agree but thats why this is such a fun exercise. Everyone has their own opinion on each prospect
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Main was not
all around bad last year and this year. Main’s composite stats in 2007-2008:
2.92 ERA, 86.2 IP, 10.3 K per 9 (close to 30% of batters faced), K/BB 3.19.
I’d say he was all around good until this year. The sky is not falling. Main’s illness needs to be properly diagnosed and then treated. He hasn’t suffered any damage to his pitching body parts, so when he gets healthy again it’s not like he has to worry about that. Then he can resume his work on keeping the ball down.
Yes, his illness is weird, but I don’t see how can you say he was all around bad last year and this year.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Max has one injury
right now, Main has missed a bunch of time with two freak injuries. Note that I am voting Main next. Neither of his injuries have anything to do with pitching mechanics. When he gets healthy he’ll be fine. Max will be, too, but it will take time for his power to come back with his wrists being sore.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I agree that Main will be fine once hes healthy
I just hope thats sooner rather than later
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Max has hit in professional ball
Beavan hasn’t thrown a ball very hard since HS.
by Brett Perryman on Jul 11, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Do you think there will ever be questions about reworking his delivery again?
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 11, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm juggling Font and Beavan here
I had originally planned to go Beavan at #6 when these polls first started, but with all the bad things we’ve heard about him lately (the Tommy Hunter comp, bad reviews of his slider, ext) I think I’ll go with Font instead, and Beav next.
After that I’ll fill out my top 10 with some combination of Borbon, Boscan and Main.
Get on base or die, Salty.
"You know, I’m playing entirely too much." - Andruw Jones
how do you justify Beavan ahead of Hunter?
Apparently several are voting this way, looking for someone to explain to me the thinking on that.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
I'd like to hear this as well
Beavan has become what Hunter was when he was drafted. A guy with a questionable fastball, good command and a good 2nd pitch.
Hunter added the curve, improved his changeup and started throwing a cutter all the while keeping his command and velocity. He’s actually what we hope Beavan will be next season.
Hunter has to be before Beavan. People are still caught up in what he was and was supposed to be rather than what he actually is now and that’s less spectacular ceiling.
my thoughts exactly
If Beavan’s next year of development goes absolutely perfect, then he is at where Hunter is at right now. There’s just no justification for Beavan over Hunter, unless you think BB has a ton of projection left, or you think Hoss is doing it with smoake and mirrors right now.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Yeah, that's a very good point actually
I’m interested to see what going back to his 2-seam fastball will do for him next year, but yeah, I guess you’d have to rank both him and Hunter together. And Hunter’s probably around #11, maybe #10 for me.
Get on base or die, Salty.
"You know, I’m playing entirely too much." - Andruw Jones
Both Beavan and Hunter have had their ups and downs
and changed their stuff and/or delivery. The picture is not at all clear what either will be and I don’t see any way it’s clear that Hunter is better than what Beavan will be in a year or three.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
A month or six weeks ago
I would have said Beavan based on his improved velocity (or at least reports of) and how he adjusted in the Cal League. His K rate was trending up little by little, and with his low walk rate and hit rates I could squint and see him being a very good 3rd starter in a decent rotation, maybe even a 2nd starter, which is all I ever thought he was when he was drafted if I thought about it seriously.
His performance in AA hasn’t been great, but I’m less bothered by that (at his age) than by the reports of his velocity and stuff not being all that. However, it’s entirely possible that, like in the Cal League, he makes adjustments, the velo creeps up, the K rate keeps trending up, and then we would look at him differently.
Hunter meanwhile looked like a back of the rotation guy when drafted and is now giving glimpses that he might be closer to a 3rd starter. It’s really pretty amazing how difficult that choice now is compared to a couple months ago. Neither of them get my next vote, though, and I’ll probably still put Beavan ahead of Hunter a couple of votes from now, but they’re close, and both might be Joe Blanton, Bob Tewksbury, Derek Lowe, who the hell knows. My next vote goes to Main, then Borbon after.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Wilmer Wingding
until he wins.
The guy’s age coupled with the raw talent is just too much to overlook for me. Learning to be a pitcher and not a thrower is tough but we’re seeing that evolution before our eyes. Unfortunately last year derailed that evolution a bit.
What's the rumpus?
Font
Seeing how Wilmer’s season is unfolding makes me appreciate Neftali’s run through Clinton a year ago. Holland too, but especially Neftali.
I’m buying Wilmer’s progress because of his last couple outings (5 BB in 22.1 IP). There are no guarantees but it’s a big pro that he’s taking the ball consistently in a full-season level, even through some bum outings.
This is a good year for Wilmer Font, folks.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Jul 11, 2009 11:33 AM CDT reply actions
I'm digging Font here too
It’s the improved walk rate that has me thinking he belongs here. He has the stuff, and now he’s controlling it. That plus the awesome ceiling puts him in front of Beavan/Hunter (3/4 ceiling) and Borbon in this next tier. As for Main, I’m a bit worried about the mystery of his situation. Until I know what’s wrong with him, I’m putting him below Font/Beavan/Hunter/Borbon for now.
This is really where it gets messy
because there’s just not a ton of distinction between the guys in this tier. I was deciding on Kiker, Font, Beav, Whisky, and Hunter (and I know I’m one of the only ones who holds him this high, but he was awesome in the AAA playoffs last year and what he’s done in the majors this year has to count somewhere and maybe I just like jolly-looking fat guys. Whatevs.) with Ross jumping up and down behind them going ‘Duuuude! Dude! What about me? I’m striking out, like, 19 guys every freakin’ time I throw!’, and Main feebly attempting to text me from the set of a House episode.
And no to rip off Mr. Tron’s reasoning, but Font’s combo of scary high ceiling (super-awesome strikeout starter) and still-really-neat-to-have middle floor (bad-ass back o’ the bullpen dude) give him the vote for me.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Now, after voting, I see Hunter's right there
behind Borbon in voting at this point, and I feel a little silly for going out of my way to justify my including him in the round.
And a little bit gay for saying I like jolly fat dudes. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
so, concentrate less on the Hunter parenthetical statement, and more on the Main-House episode joke. There’s plenty of potential for chuckles there.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
C-Wun & Hoss Hunter
If the next couple years go just perfectly for Beavan, doesn’t he become something like what Hoss is right now?
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Well Hunter's got 3 years on Beavan
That’s a pretty significant difference between the two. You’re doing what Josey did when he talked about the Rangers this year. If the next couple of years go perfectly for Beavan, he’s a part of the Rangers rotation and dominating in the Majors.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
If the next couple of years go perfectly for Beavan, he’s a part of the Rangers rotation and dominating in the Majors.
Sorta like Tommy Hunter is doing right now?
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Okay,
so you think that Hunter is going to be a dominant pitcher from here on out?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I think Beavan has to make a lot of progress to get to where Hunter is at
And I also think Hunter has shown an aptitude for making adjustments and refinements in his game when necessary. There is just no assurance that Beavan will ever have stuff that is the equal of what Hunter is showing right now.
In my opinion, these two guys have ceilings that are near identical, and Hunter is a lot closer to reaching his, so I am going to rank him as a better prospect.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
I don't think many of us
around here thought Hunter would have the stuff he has now. I don’t think he will ever have one plus-plus pitch but on any given night one of his five could be a plus pitch that allows him to an effective pitcher.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Gotta go with Ross
Ross then Font…until Font can be more consistent. Ross is absolutely freakin’ dominating! He may not have the ceiling of Font…but he has way more pitchability at this point then Font.
"The mystery of the beginning of all things is insoluble by us; and I for one must be content to remain an agnostic" - Charles Darwin, you know who he is...
by 8legs2fangs on Jul 11, 2009 1:09 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Older than Font pitching at a lower level
Big points off for that for me
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
He's 19 years old
sporting ridiculous stats in every category. He probably should be pitching at hickory, seeing as how he’s made an absolute mockery of the NW league
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
He's 20.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 11, 2009 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Still the equivalent
of a college sophomore dominating recently drafted college juniors and seniors.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Borbon
i really cant see how you overlook him for this spot. He’s gonna be here soon, he’s got the upside to be a quality leadoff hitter and a plus defender in CF. All the other guys are either inning eater closer to the bigs pitchers or high upside, but high risk guys far away. Borbon has more value to me than those guys.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
I think what is really hurting
Borbon in most everyone’s eyes is his poor slg%. Also, we are somewhat caught up in this pitching craze that we tend to discount the position players a bit.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Tough
Really tough. I went with Kiker but I think you could make a case for about 10 different guys here.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
Beavan for me
20 year old in Frisco right now. He’s struggling a bit, but he’s still managed to lower his walk rate from Bakersfield to Frisco and that ridiculously low HR rate to give him a 3.42 FIP. Now they have him working on getting some more velocity back which will make him even closer to a TORP. Font has the huge fastball and amazing natural talent, but the 5 walks per 9 innings is painful to see. He’s started cutting down on the walks a bit recently, but I’m still skeptical until he starts doing it more.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Beavan
Having seen him several starts I think he has a long way to go before you can even throw TORP around.
Right now I see his ceiling as a 3/4 innings eater, but if the velo gets back to mid 90s
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
This is where it gets tough
Its Font or Borbon to me and I guess i’ll give a slight edge to borbon based on how much further he is, but fonts ceiling is droolworthy
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
Borbon
and then Robbie Ross. Both are showing tremendous improvements to their game so far this year, but Borbon gets the edge because he’s doing it at a higher level and is more ready for the major leagues.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Hunter
although h’es not likely to qualify for this list much longer
Yoon-Hee Nam
This kid is destroying. Last outing 2IP with 5 K’s. I don’t think he’s top ten, but I do think he is deserving of making the list. What do you think Dirk?
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