LSB Community Prospect Project: Mid-Season #7
by thedirkatron on Jul 12, 2009 9:53 AM CDT
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PrintThat one was actually pretty darn close.
After 195 votes, Wilmer Font has won the right to be called the LSB Community #6 prospect!
Quite a nice ascention for Wilmer, who was 17th on our Winter list. It's amazing what pitching in actual games will do for your prospect rep.
The List So Far:
1. 1b, Justin Smoak
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. LHP, Martin Perez
4. RHP, Tanner Scheppers
5. LHP, Matt Purke
6. RHP, Wilmer Font
Time to move on to the vote for #7
Yet another interesting vote.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And, as always, please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
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This just keeps getting harder and harder.
I could see a bunch of guys here. Kiker, Beavan, Hunter, Ross, Wieland, Main, Max, Beltre, etc.
There’s a case to be made for all of those guys, imo.
But I’ve gotta go with Borbon here. The more I think about it the more I think he’s the best guy on the board. He’s a plus defender at a premium position and he’s almost ready to step in as a big league regular, possibly as soon as late this year, and almost definitely by next Spring. His bat is nothing special (I see him as a .750-.825 OPS player in the bigs), but his speed on the bases combined with his defense at a position where this club needs a speedy defender with range is going to be huge for us.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
Arm
I am sure that this has already been discussed elsewhere, but I am too lazy to look it up. How would you rate Borbon’s arm?
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 12, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
From the bushel basket of electrons I've read on him;
Slightly below MLB average, made up for by a very quick/smooth glove transfer, and largely mitigated by superior range & instincts.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Other than Hindman, where have you read that, Rodney?
I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.
"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales
by Brian Thomas on Jul 14, 2009 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I've seen that elsewhere, too
though I can’t remember exactly where.
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How long before you see him with a 750-825 OPS?
Are you saying you can see him doing that in his peak, or by 2011 or so?
And how would that 800ish OPS break down?
I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.
"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales
by Brian Thomas on Jul 14, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions
That seems a tad optimistic to me
I still think he’s going to hit .280/.340/.370, an OPS in the low 700s. I’m happy that he’s walking more and has good plate discipline, but I just don’t see that slugging percentage going much about .380. Maybe he peaks with an OPS in the .750-.760 range for a couple of years. His value will be in defense and baserunning, with a plate approach like Andrus. I’d be pleasantly surprised to see that OPS cross the .800 line.
He’s shown a good ability to adjust and I’m impressed that he’s improved his on base skills a bit. But that doesn’t increase his ceiling for me, just makes it more likely he’ll reach it.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I think we'll see something in the .290/.350/.400 range pretty soon after he takes over in CF, maybe as soon as next year.
I think in his prime he could develop a little more pop, maybe sitting at ~.300/.375/.450 or so, though that’s probably a tad optimistic on the power.
I think there’s some sock in that bat, though.
He’s really impressed me with his willingness to work, though.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 14, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
I just posted this on the other thread
Would you put Yoon-Hee Nam on the list. I don’t think he’s top 10, but the way he is destroying (2IP with 5K’s)for Hickory deserves some love. What do you think? BTW, CWUN again for me.
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
This is a toughie.
I’m leaning toward Borbon, since it was pointed out to me yesterday that Hunter and Beavan really have the same ceiling these days… it really feels to me like we’ve got a boatload of guys this year who I’d put in the 9-11 range that we have to choose a couple from to fill out the 7-8 slots.
I don’t really have time to debate with myself over this now, so I’m gonna have to make my decision later – in the meantime, anyone care to post anything that might sway my vote?
Get on base or die, Salty.
"You know, I’m playing entirely too much." - Andruw Jones
I couldn't figure out how to do it myself ...
but I’d like to see the pitchfx chart of Hunter’s last start. My eye sez he lives up in the zone. I wanna know if that’s true. Tricer and HF made good points yesterday.
This?
It definitely looks like there weren’t many pitches down in the zone.
"You'll meet them again on their long journey to the middle." -Lester Bangs
awesome, thx
I guess I should bookmark that handy page. My eye appears to be correct.
Is his secret deception? He does repeat his motion and release point well for every pitch, right?
He’s got control of a variety of pitches and guys just can’t read him until he releases the ball or something maybe kinda?
His previous start shows much the same
http://tinyurl.com/tommyhunterjuly3
His release point seems very consistent, and, if I’m reading the graph correctly, he’s getting good movement on the pitches. I didn’t see a whole lot of either of those games, so can’t compare it to my eyeballs.
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I concur on the releae point and movement.
That said, how the heck can anyone vote BB over him? I’m on record as being a huge C-1 fan, but I can’t honestly vote him over Hunter, or even Bourbon.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I think the fact that Beavan is 20 yrs old
at AA is definitely one of the factors. I really believe that BB gets a cup of coffee next yr at the end of season and has a legit shot to break camp with the big club in the rotation.
by Michael Cave on Jul 12, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Its easy
I like Borbon, but a SP like Beavan is more valuable than him. If Beavan was voted in at 6, I would be voting for Borbon right now probably. Hunter’s probably a LAIE and I think Beavan can be better than that and he still has a few years to get to where Hunter currently is (which is definitely possible).
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Beavan should work on breaking 90mph if he wants to be a LAIE.
His velo lately worries me.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
The velocity doesn't worry me much
We were getting reports of him working in the low 90s earlier in the season and now they want him working on increasing his velocity some more. If he keeps this kind of control and can command that fastball (whether its 90 or 95 mph), then he’ll be able to be a LAIE.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
League Average Innings Eater.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 12, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
His control is what makes him special.
Sure, he’d be a better prospect if he threw in the 91-93 range as opposed to 89-90.
But his ability to pound the bottom of the zone and utter abhorrence of the free pass really make me hot and bothered in my prospect pants.
I think velocity is overrated. Sure, it’s really nice to have. But guys can succeed without premium velocity.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 12, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
That's true...
when they also have off-speed stuff to go with it.
by NoNameOnCard on Jul 12, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
what is your opinion of Beavan's offspeed stuff?
Would you rank him or Hunter as the better prospect right now?
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
I wrote a crap-ton about this about a week ago.
Apparently, I assumed incorrectly that I had brought about this gigantic Hunter/Beavan discussion…
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/7/7/rangers-prospect-analysis-blake-beavan-vs-tommy-hunter.html
by NoNameOnCard on Jul 12, 2009 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
good article
I had missed that, and I agree with your points there.
I think that Hunter’s horrible debut has a lot of people waiting for him to crash and burn this season, and he may, but people should not dismiss the improvements that he has made. His arsenal is well rounded, he has nice command, and he has a plus pitch at his disposal. I think he is in the ML rotation to stay.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
"Tiger 15"
Apparently objects to my assertion that a cutter is a type of two-seam fastball.
by NoNameOnCard on Jul 12, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
as far as I'm concerned
that distinction doesn’t have much meaning either way.
The quality and shape of the pitch, and the command with which it is thrown are what is important to me. Don’t care that much about the vagaries of the nomenclature.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
I mostly object to his notion that because I called it a two-seamer...
I must be an idiot who knows nothing about baseball but insists on writing about it anyway.
I have a love/hate relationship with blogging.
by NoNameOnCard on Jul 12, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
You need to grow a thicker skin, broseph.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Jul 12, 2009 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
.
I have a love/hate relationship with blogging.
Why? Don’t let the idiots and jerks get you down. Just ignore them. Don’t try to rationalize or argue with them, just flat out pretend they don’t exist.
I know it’s hard to keep yourself from letting that stuff under your skin when you put yourself out there creatively, but that’s the only way.
The vast majority of us really appreciate the stuff you (and people like you) put out there.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 12, 2009 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions
further
I wish everyone that is voting for Beavan would take the time to read that article and think about it for a minute.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
i read it pretty carefully
saw Beavan pitch in HS 3-4 times, seen him pitch at Frisco once as well
by Michael Cave on Jul 12, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Still on the Beavan bandwagon
20 year old with amazing control in AA. I’m still loving it.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
good point
I’ve always hitched my wagon to Beavan’s control and lately I’ve wandered away from that constructive bias.
Tewksbury
is the guy I keep thinking of, though Beavan gets more K’s.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I keep thinking Brad Radke
but i may have a slightly higher opinion of him than most
by Michael Cave on Jul 12, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Another good one
and maybe closer in terms of K rate than Tewks.
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I keep thinking of Volstad.
I like the Radke comp as well.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
gastronomy says
…Main.
Great athlete totally dismantled by…control problems? Even Tim Murphy has come back from as much, to say nothing for the ascensions of Kirkman and even Blake.
I blame the mystery ailment, and bet he makes a nice return this year. Michael Main still has a high ceiling, good head, and beautiful track record. Setbacks are good for people.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Jul 12, 2009 11:02 AM CDT reply actions
I'm with you
I still believe Main has all the talent that Rick Adair, Hindmand, Joey, Jason, etc. have raved about. And his stats in 2007-08 are good. This year is an aberration for Main, as it is for Max Ramirez.
Someone get House on the phone quick and get Main healthy. Borbon is next for me, and I could certainly see justification for voting for him here.
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I think Main
is the biggest enigma in this system right now.
by Michael Cave on Jul 12, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Setbacks are good for people.
That’s why I’m actually kinda glad Smoak is struggling a bit right now. A good test for his mojo.
The problem for me with ranking Main this high
Is that it looks like over the past 2 years, he’s going to end up with a only a small handful of months to actually develop as a pitcher. I’m not as worried about the injuries or whatever it is he has now but the lost development time hurts.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
He's not on a deadline.
I agree the lost time hurts, but it delays his development, it doesn’t cut it short.
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No deadline
But another wasted year isn’t going to help a guy who hasn’t been able to pitch much as a pro yet. And when you’re comparing him to guys like Beavan, Borbon, Hunter, or whoever, falling another year behind should see him drop in the rankings some.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Not for me
I see Main’s ceiling quite a bit higher than those guys, so, like Font, he outranks them even with the question marks. I might say the others are more likely to reach their ceiling, but I don’t vote that way for rankings. I’m probably pretty far to that ceiling side in my voting compared to most.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Well then we just disagree a lot on that
I think Font was ranked a bit too high and I think you have to play the percentages quite a bit with these rankings. Beavan’s already getting time in AA and will hopefully begin adjusting to the league while still improving as a prospect. Main on the other hand has just not pitched enough and I don’t have much faith in them figuring out what is wrong with Main and getting him back on track anytime soon. The talent is still there and he still could move quickly through the system, but there is a lot of risk attached with a guy who hasn’t pitched much in games and has suffered through 2 seasons filled with injuries.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Me too
I still see a floor of a quality #3 or #4 starter. If he can add a few mph to the heater, which isn’t that unusual for a 20yr oldwho reworked his mechanics at 18 or 19, then his slider probably improves alot too and then all of a sudden we are talking about a #1 or #2.
I went Borbon here
but it would be cool to see C-Wun work a splitter, something or other, into his arsenal.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 12, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Borbon (again)
Mostly due to proximity to MLB duty. So much can happen between even AA and the bigs. But as someone pointed out, it’s getting tough to choose – I can only imagine the 10 thru 15 selection quandry.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jul 12, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions
Does anybody
have the list of when Neftali is going to pitch today?
<!-- extended entry --> Horned Frog Frenzy
by FormerLSBUser on Jul 12, 2009 11:48 AM CDT reply actions
I believe this is going to be a very close vote.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Don't understand the Bevan love but
I made my opinion quite clear yesterday.
Voted for Ross who said he struggled in his last start, but he was still very good. Ross should be in Hickory before the year is out.
After Robbie it’s MaxRam, Borbon and Hunter for me and I’m still not sure in what order. Max’s injuries hurt him but I believe if he gets healthy he’ll start to hit again.
Borbon’s lack of power and still low walk rate make me think he’s more a 9 hitter than leadoff guy. But his floor isn’t bad and he’s practically achieved that already. He’ll be on the big squad next year.
Hunter isn’t great at anything but he keeps getting it done with control and an above average knowledge of how to pitch. His smarts play his stuff way up. Tommy is making me a believer.
Borbon for
everyday defense at CF. If he can provide anywhere near the defense that Andrus gives us at SS, with Crush back up next year, we could be the best defensive team in the majors.
Your uncle molests collies.
Borboun for me.
Then Hunter, then BB (maybe).
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Just curious
How come Tatusko is never discussed as a prospect (at least that I’ve heard). I realize he wouldn’t be ranked where we are voting right now, but I’ve never heard mention of him other than from his e-mails. He’s pitching pretty well in Bakersfield it seems.
I realize he is 24, but
3.29 era, 1.13 WHIP, 48 K/17 BB in 65 IP and he almost threw a no-hitter the other day.
Just curious why this 6’6 pitching prospect we have is never mentioned
Well maybe the 48 K in 65 IP was lot to do with it.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 12, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
At an age
that’s 4 years older than Beavan. and a higher BB% to boot.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I understand that Beavan is a much higher-ranked prospect
I’m just wondering why he is never even mentioned for the top 35/50
Because he's an org soldier as opposed to a legit prospect.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 12, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Borbon
His because his BB% is now nearing 8 and his K percentage is still below 10. He seems to be one of the few guys in the system that’s actively going out there and attempting to cover up the holes in his game. That and his ability to play solid defense and move Josh Hamilton to the corner make him at least #7.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Borbon
Really admire the adjustments he’s made offensively, and he’s got plenty of time to get back to hitting the ball with more authority as he matures.
Agree
I think the org really believes in him…can’t imagine it was easy to hand him a 40 spot.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Jul 12, 2009 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions
if its between Borbon and Beavan, i really am not sure how you can pick Beavan
as it stands now, Borbon’s upside is probably more valueable than Beavan’s and Borbon is closer with an almost certainty of playing in the Majors.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Prospect #7
Main and MaxRam could be future all stars. Hunter, Moscoso, Beavan, Poveda, and Kiker are on track to be key pitchers during the Rangers’ glory run. Ross is the most likely remaining prospect to be included on a national Top 100 list. But Borbon is the guy with my vote because he will make everyone of those pitchers better. I am convinced that the AA transitions of Holland and Feliz in 2008 went as well as they did because Andrus, Vallejo, and Borbon made outs on what had been hits in Clinton and Bakersfield. A center fielder who can make pitchers appear better than they really are is worth carrying in a line-up even if he has a .325 OBP which, in my opinion, is Borbon’s floor.
Wow, its a tie between Borbon and Beavan
42 each.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Tie.
Dirk said no runoffs at the start of this.
"You know, I’m playing entirely too much." - Andruw Jones
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
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