Revisiting Kevin Millwood's Strand Rate

Millwood’s results are his results. No need to try to tell us why they should be different when we all can see what is actually happening.
That’s simply using stats to try to paint an alternate reality… Dumb, dumb, dumb.

It’s using normative data that correlates with what happened. Neither the data (nor Adam’s POV) are certainties that Millwood’s ERA will continue to climb, nor that his strand rate will continue to drop. Are those likely? Yes. Are they certain? No. Both strand rate and BABIP result from situational play, and you can’t see into the future to ascertain that sharp grounders will result in either base hits or double plays. OTOH if his LD% shoots up, that can affect all his numbers. Can’t predict accurately if he gets fatifued, and whether or not that causes some loss of command, or how different batters in matchups will handle his pitches. One SSS weirdness was Rob Johnson’s HR – whodda thunk it?

that because someone is having part of their game looking overwhelmingly good due to fairly flukish numbers, that they aren’t an all star.

If you have 100 RBIs at the break, like Juando, or are hitting .400 or close to it, or if you won every single game, but your FIP shows you are a fairly average player, you are still an All-Star in my book. I’m sure Hank Blalock is pretty happy that guys with a fluky half season get in.

Its just an exhibition game anyway.

Sure, the whole :Kevin Millwood’s strand rate was really good because he really knows how to dig down was a load of crap, but still, I think he should have been in over Wakefield in my book. I’m just not motivated enough about All Stars to start a half dozen fanposts though.

Young is a crappy offensive player

He’s a bigger problem offensively than just about anyone else in the lineup.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 18, 2009 6:29 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions 0 recs

Why AJM shares Josey’s obsession with self-congratulation when a fairly obvious prediction occurs.

A pitcher having a good year probably subscribes to the dictum “there is something I can do here to influence the situation in a positive manner”. “There’s always one last thing I can do”. You know, the Hal Moore shit. These are a bunch of numbers out there on a ball field. They’re human beings and they fight.

Then again, shit is what it is and believe me, I know luck exists. I don’t want to believe it’s luck when something good happens to me. I want to believe it was because I did something to cause it. And when I’m a fan of a baseball team, the same thing applies.

And then again, maybe it’s a little of both. Confidence goes a long way, no matter what a person does for a living.

But I don’t think Millwood is the same pitcher he was last year or the year before. His stuff is better and he’s not throwing nearly as many marshmallows. He’s staying on the corners a lot better. Maybe his stuff isn’t any better…I’m not in the batter’s box so I wouldn’t really know for sure. The location is better, though. You can tell by the kinds of swings guys are having against him.

I guess when you finally do get into better shape, it can’t help but to affect your attitude, and if you’re confident instead of pensive good things will tend to happen.

I’m not stupid. Luck exists in baseball like it does everywhere else in life, but I don’t think it exists to the point that some people who post here do. Baseball is a game of skill, not of chance.

if Millwood has just been luckier this year would it be wise for the Rangers to see what they could get for him now? I mean, if he is viewed as an ace right now the market for him would be pretty high, especially with the option year in his contract being basically a given.

If the Rangers could get a young ML ready starter back in the deal (obviously he has to have a decent ceiling) among a couple other prospects do you think about it?