LSB Community Prospect Project: Mid-Season #9

really bad joke on my part. I apologize.

to drop his ceiling so much for you? Is it the velocity drop? He continues to put up great numbers in AA ball as a starter — better than any other Rangers prospect not named Holland in recent times. His peripherals look a lot better than Harrison at the same stage.

I think his ceiling is still at least middle of the rotation starter, even if he doesn’t get the fastball back into the mid-90s like he was sitting as late as last season.

but honestly, in this range, there are good arguments for just about anyone

I think Kiker’s floor is some type of RP, whether its just a regular LOOGY type pitcher or a 7th or 8th inning guy, or I could really see him as a lefty closer too, he’s got that type of attitude. But to give up on him as a starter now and label him only as a RP seems like we are jumping to conclusions. He’s put up great numbers with good K numbers as a 21 yr old in AA. Anyways, we’ll see, but if he ends up as a quality RP, Im not gonna complain and that can be more valueable than a guy who’s turns out to be a below avg starter like Tommy could very well be (although, I really like the Hoss as LSJ has labeled him and believe in him). It just depends on how good those 60 IP are above replacement really compared to the 200 IP… I almost feel like Tommy should be ranked ahead of Beavan at this point, im torn about that, and i honestly like Kiker more than Beavan and just ahead of Tommy and Main ( Im not sure what to think about MM) at this point as weird as that sounds. To me, after Borbon in the 7th slot, the next 6 or so guys seem all in a big cloud of guys with alot of talent who could be really big impact players for us in the future but they all have alot of question marks that might hold them back.

that Kiker’s ceiling is a late inning lefty. I think he still probably has a ceiling of some type of SP, but personally I think it is far more likely that he is a ML reliever.

A couple of months ago many here were convinced that Hunter was bullpen bound. Hunter has looked good recently, but Kiker has hardly been dickin’ around in AA. 1 ER in his last 25 innings, with a WHIP under 1. Doing well against both righties and lefties, leading the league in strikeouts (with more K’s per 9 than anyone near him on the leaderboard).

Kiker is no slouch, and succeeding as a starter in AA at 21. I’m not sure why you would say he doesn’t deserve consideration here.

Gabbard at his infrequent best did a great Rogers impersonation, IMO.

now, Kiker needs to develop that Curve some b/c if i remember well, Rogers had a really nice one.

he’s just doing what he did last year. I hope and dont see why he cant be at least a solid MR for us

I’m just pointing out that it’s good, not great. He’s consistently been an extreme flyball pitcher and while his K% and BB% were both good for his MWL stint, neither were eye poppingly good to the point that you’re willing to declare him to be a guy with frontline ceiling.

If Derek Holland didn’t go insane in Bakersfield and Frisco, this would be the reaction to him as well, and I doubt he would have been declared #1 prospect by the community last year. In light of his lack of innings, and his lack of a truly dominant stint, I don’t see how you can declare that Michael Main is better than guys like Kiker/Hunter/Ross.

Maddux(Greg) never had the high 90’s heater, and I’m fairly sure he was #1 on staff with 2 other future HOF’s.

A prospect doesn’t have to put up Holland numbers in Bakersfield to be have something special. Let’s not hold any prospect, Main or otherwise, to a Holland standard.

I’m posting this in defense of Main. Just sayin’ that Holland’s year was unprecedented.

just wondering, i didnt rec them anyways, I actually missed #3 because it was rec’d and I didn’t see it in time, and I prefer for them to not be rec’d

Here is where I sit with Main. I can’t really rank him as high as I did before the season, not because I believe he’s a lesser talent, but because I perceive more uncertainty about how he will develop. He’s still the talent level of a frontline starter. It appeared he was continuing to advance nicely in that mold through his Midwest League performance and Instructs (as best as I can glean from everyone else’s reports).

I would say he’s ahead of Robbie Ross. At the same stage in Main’s career, he was just assigned to a league a step higher than Robbie Ross, after putting up excellent numbers and getting great scouting reviews in the NWL the year he was drafted.

Main is in the mix with Kiker and Beavan, and he has everything one needs to take a step ahead of them. He appeared to do that this offseason. (Aside: I personally think Hunter has taken a step ahead of all of those fellas by improving his ability to strike people out. Hunter is actualizing his low-rotation potential, and he may have upped his ceiling to mid-rotation.)

I interpreted Main’s struggles at Bakersfield as working on things he needed to fix. But, his illness casts some doubt on that, and it’s really hard to know what Main is all about. Nevertheless, I would still rank Main ahead of Kiker and Beavan (though all of them behind Hunter), because I believe Main’s athleticism and capacity to put new things into action give him a better chance to hone his talent.

I don’t have spreadsheet categories, like athleticism and aptitude, that I can correlate with success rate (though I wish I did), and I don’t normally put this much weight on those things (if I had done so in the case of Derek Holland, I would be considered a very savvy fan if not genius analyst), but that doesn’t take away from the fact that there is still plenty of time for Main’s considerable tools (as identified from multiple prospect assessments) to translate into performance. He’s only 20. If he were 6 years into his career or had hit his mid-20s without having figured it out, then, yeah, I would agree with you that performance should trump potential in this case.

The few Bakersfield games I listened to seemed to indicate his fastball was as effective as in the Midwest League. Players have had the look of having a hard time tracking it and squaring up on it. I really don’t know what happened to Main at Bakersfield; I don’t think his fastball was the problem.

Which is almost entirely opposite of what most folks would think if putting together a list of prospects to deal for, say, Halladay.

if we had to make a deal, wouldn’t it be most sensible to deal Perez at this point?

I think if he stays at catcher, he’ll still be fine. I hope he has a strong 2nd half.

IMO, Main’s poor performance has more to do with his “illness” than meeting his expected progression like Beltre. However, when looking at it from a different perspective, I can see what y’all are saying comparing Beltre and Main, and agree they are in the similar places.

An image I will never be able to forget. Thanks.

You don’t think he might’ve upped his ceiling a little bit by improving his ability to strike out pitches.

be gripping about work loads and pitch counts somewhere?

Hunter is the flavor of the week/month, along with Ross (who probably deserves it more, Main is nothing, blah blah blah.

Once a guy like Hunter (or Littleton back in the day) gets to the bigs, he suddenly becomes “real” to most people, as opposed to just some stat-generating name on a page that you get to read a scouting report on once a year when BA releases their prospect handbook.

I think it is a good and natural thing to take the most recent and most pertinent information and incorporate that into the analysis.

For example, any ranking of Hunter that excludes what he has done at the big league level this season would seem to be incomplete. Players develop over time, some learn things as they go and figure out ways to improve their game and succeed, those players should justifiably be bumped up the rankings when they display that skill, especially at the big league level. That is what Hunter has done IMO. He apparently learned from the pounding he got last year, went down and worked on his sequencing and the quality of his changeup and added a cutter.

I know that you favor youth and ceiling in your own rankings, and even knowing that, I don’t see how you can find at least 12 other prospects with higher ceiling in this system. The only way you could possibly have Hunter that low is if you are placing guys like Beltre in front of him, and I disagree. Favoring a guy that has displayed zero ability to adapt or improve above a guy that has shown those abilities in abundance is just something that I don’t understand. The same line of reasoning would have ranked Joaquin Arias a better prospect than Ian Kinsler a few years ago. I’m wondering how many here ranked Arias ahead of Kinsler because he had a higher ceiling?