Sean Gallagher to San Diego in the Scott Hairston trade
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 13, 2009 1:00 PM CDT
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PrintSo, as suspected, Sean Gallagher is the PTBNL going to San Diego in the Scott Hairston trade. This makes this roughly the equivalent of the Rangers giving up Matt Harrison, Tommy Hunter, and Michael Schlacht...raise your hand if you think that would have been a good deal for the Rangers.
There was some praise for Billy Beane on getting Hairston, but he seems like a nice but somewhat fungible bat, a guy you can plug in as a role player on a good team, but also someone who, at age 29, isn't getting any better and is just getting more expensive. And with a team that can't find regular playing time for Travis Buck and Aaron Cunningham, you kind of have to wonder what the point is.
Dan Szymborski goes so far as to suggest that the A's may need to move on without Beane:
Still, you get the sense that the front office the last 18 months or so has been reduced to making decisions merely on the tactical level, a la Dan O'Dowd. A lot of the moves the A's have made have been positive in a completely isolated sense, such as the Holliday trade, but don't seem to fit into a long-term strategic framework. As I suggest in the title, maybe it's time the A's move another direction in regards to team management. I think Beane's been a great GM for the team overall, but after an extremely long stint, one has to wonder if the A's wouldn't be better off if they had someone making personnel decisions that had a few more big ideas that they're just itching to implement. Creative energy can become stagnant, no matter how talented the individual in question is.
Beane has been so good, so long, that there seems to be a willingness in some quarters to give him a pass on deals like this. If Beane is letting Gallagher et al go, then they must not be very good (never mind that Gallagher was, along with Matt Murton, one of the key pieces to the Rich Harden trade last season). And Hairston...well, he's got value, he gets on base, he's not TOO expensive, clearly the Padres must have screwed up.
But for a team that isn't going anywhere this season, you have to wonder what the point of dealing three decent (if low-ceiling) pitching prospects for someone like Hairston is.
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That makes it an assinine trade.
I never want to hear again that Beane is a genius…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Unless..... and forgive me for even hinting that Beane hasn't lost it here..
What if he’s gauging that (a) those arms weren’t all that after all, and (b) role-playing hitters will be the currency of trades this season. Of course, for him to turn Hairston into something better than Gallagher, that would mean that some other GM missed the chance to land Hairston for that price, and that some GM will be eager to beat that price in a month or so.
Me, I think he’s just struggling to find the next “undervalued commodity”; that or just biding his time until Brad Pitt comes a’calling..
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
I'll agree with you and Dan S,
that he is just flopping around trying to stumble on the next “big thing” and regain his former glory. Thing is, it ain’t workin’.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I can see how getting Hairston for hoping to flip him later
is a good strategic move if you are a team like Cincinnati or Colorado, where simply moving a guy out of Petco into a hitter-friendly environment will boost his stats to a point where is trade value would increase.
But Oakland is almost as bad as San Diego when it comes to deflating hitter’s values. And even though most teams are statistically sophisticated enough to take ballparks into effect, there is doubtless a bias against trading for guys with icky numbers, regardless of ballpark. Same goes for the Holliday deal, but at least that can be attributed in part to an attempt to compete in 2009.
Go Rice Owls!
So
we just forget what the A’s did from 1999-2006?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
No
Success as a GM can come from many sources. Good GMs need to be is skilled in some way – good at negotiations with players and other teams; good at recognizing talent in scouts, managers, staff, etc; good at understanding the game & how to structure a team. Or they can be good at recognizing and taking advantage of opportunities – like a day trader who recognizes a good arbitrage situation and invests accordingly.
Beane is probably very much the last type of GM – he recognizes the “lay of the land” and takes advantage of it. Now, I think in the late ‘90s and early 2000’s there weren’t too many GMs doing that – so there were enough opportunities for him to make up for his structural disadvantage (bad owners in a bad ballpark in a bad city for a team). But as with any system with people taking advantage arbitrage, more people try to take advantage, and all the low-lying fruit is taken up. He may be just as good as he was before, but since he’s not the only guy trying to find an advantage, the opportunities are smaller and close faster than they used to.
According to this train of thought, the irony is that the shift in landscape brought about by Beane is ultimately what has made him less effective.
Go Rice Owls!
Yep
Agree on all points.
"andruw jones hits 3 HRS at LA of Anaheim last nite after hitting zero at LA of LA as Dodger in all of '08. thats nuts." SI_JonHeyman
Nope; but he's sort of turning into the Gil Brandt of MLB
Everyone has his playbook and spreadsheets, and he’s struggling to be more than middling.
Also, I certainly don’t discount his glory years, but hitting on that many rotation guys is as much luck as it is talent, IMO.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Absolutely.
I’ll post it again with an update, but the Zito-Mulder-Hudson trio was and may always remain an unprecedented draft SP trio.
They also mark the transition from Texas to Oakland of the organization in the majors that produced the most wins by their drafted pitchers. Texas went from the top to bottom in only a 5-year period.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
No one is saying that.
They’re saying Beane is stuck in 1999-2006. It has yet to be determined whether Beane will have that next stroke of genius that will carry the organization through the next 7 years.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
Plus
It does sound like that’s what Rodney is saying, which is what Josey is responding to.
by brettgardner on Jul 13, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
No need to forget about those years
But past success doesn’t always lead to future success. He had a great run over the past decade or so, but its definitely possible that he just can’t cut it there anymore and both sides need a change sometime soon with Beane moving on to another team and Oakland moving on to a new GM.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Also
a lot of the guys responsible for the A’s success, Hudson, Tejada, Chavez, Giambi, etc. were signed to the A’s before Beane was GM. Some of the guys responsible for scouting and drafting the next group, like Zito, were also hired by Alderson.
The organization currently in place is pretty much all Beane’s, though.
A lot of GMs get a lot of credit for what their predecessors actually did. I think some of that rings true in Beane’s case.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Whoaaa
So you’re saying a GM that makes a bad trade should be given a pass now and again? No f’n way you just said that.
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
Beane gets a pass
because of the product he put on the field at the major league level from 1999-2006.
Donuts got his ass ripped and doesn’t get credit because the product at the major league level sucked plus he was a human wrecking ball to the future of this team until Nolan was hired.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
How long does Beane get a pass?
This is the third year in a row the team’s been bad. How many oh-shits will it take to cancel out eight years of atta-boys?
Serious question.
You're right
Rangers product on the field sucks. After three full season Donuts only has them 1.5 games back at the ASB. Pretty shitty. It only took Beane two seasons to get ithe A’s into the playoffs. JD’s way the hell behind schedule.
Or should we blame Nolan for the fact the Rangers aren’t first?
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
Donuts is waaaaaaay behind schedule.
We’re in Year 4 and Donuts has yet to build a team that’s finished a season above .500 plus the local fans were so impressed with his fine work that attendance in 2008 fell off by nearly 600,000 since he was hired.
That’s why Nolan Ryan was hired.
Your boy is about to get seriously evaluated once more because this team is in contention yet it has glaring needs and a boatload of prospects creating positional logjams throughout the organization.
Is he going to sit there and piss himself again or is he going to come back with a deal that Nolan approves that actually helps the team?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Sweeeeet - a reference to attendance
That’s 4 I can remember from you.
You never answered the question – isn’t it Nolan’s fault the team isn’t in first?
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
"Isn't Nolan's fault the isn't in first" ?
No, he didn’t build this team.
He oversees and then evaluates the direction of the franchise at the end of the season plus he approves any major trades.
Do you feel differently?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
And oh yeah
Nolan is also most concerned with earning credibility back with the fans (lost from 2005-2008) and putting butts in seats.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
I just have one thing to say
Thank the Good Lord “Donuts” thought better of hiring Trey Hillman.
"andruw jones hits 3 HRS at LA of Anaheim last nite after hitting zero at LA of LA as Dodger in all of '08. thats nuts." SI_JonHeyman
Looks like he should have hired
Wakamatsu.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
that is the perspective if you take a look from outside the box
inside the box, i think Don was too closely linked to the past regime and that hiring him would have been a move of weakness even if he was the best choice. All decisions arent equal regardless of the club
I can't help it. I’m an asshole.
-brettgardner on Jul 7, 2009 10:55 PM EDT
Yep
I liked Wakamatsu, but this club clearly needed a break from the Buck era. Regardless of whether Wakamatsu shares any personality traits with Buck, he still had the Buck stigma and that’s not what the club needed at the time.
The jury is still out on Wak, of course, but I’d say the top two in that finalists pool are clearly Wash and Wak. I am terrified as to what might have happened if Hillman had been turned loose with Holland and Feliz.
"andruw jones hits 3 HRS at LA of Anaheim last nite after hitting zero at LA of LA as Dodger in all of '08. thats nuts." SI_JonHeyman
Why?
Hasn’t Greinke flourished under Hillman?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Greinke has flourished now that he's got his personal issues under control
I have no idea what role, if any, Hillman has had in that. On the other end if the spectrum, you’ve got the Soria and Meche debacles, both of which are Hillman’s ugly handiwork.
"andruw jones hits 3 HRS at LA of Anaheim last nite after hitting zero at LA of LA as Dodger in all of '08. thats nuts." SI_JonHeyman
by WestTxAg06 on Jul 13, 2009 7:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Greinke had been in the majors for a few years before Hillman was hired
Hillman’s first year as manager, Greinke only started games (he had both started and relieved the year before). In his first year under Hillman, he started 32 games and posted a 3.47 ERA and 123 ERA+ in 202.1 innings. But his first year in the majors was actually 2004, when he started (and appeared in) 24 games and in 145 innings, posted an ERA of 3.97 and an ERA+ of 120. He had his personal struggles the next couple of years, including 2006 when he only appeared in three games, but in 2007, he appeared in 52 games, starting 14, and pitched 122 innings of 3.69 ERA/127 ERA+ ball.
The point is that Greinke was already developed and ready for prime time in The Show by the time Hillman was hired. Holland is a rookie and Feliz will be when he comes up, both seeing their first major-league action this year. They would be seeing their first MLB action under Hillman if he had been hired here instead of Washington.
where was this credibility prior to 2005?
this club has been a complete joke for 30+ years. you cant lose something you dont have.
I can't help it. I’m an asshole.
-brettgardner on Jul 7, 2009 10:55 PM EDT
Direction of the franchise certainly includes firing Donuts
No? If JD sucks as bad as you claim he should have had his walking papers.
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
STOP
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Alright
Done and done. Still, it’s a good mental exercise. Well, maybe not.
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
So you don't wanna answer the question, Wyoranger?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Nolan decided to bring back both Donuts
and Washington – his call all the way.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
you think hicks hires nolan if he thought nolan wasnt on the same page with the direction of the club?
I can't help it. I’m an asshole.
-brettgardner on Jul 7, 2009 10:55 PM EDT
I think Hicks
hired Ryan because this thing was a bleeping mess on the field and at the gate.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
do you actually expect to recieve an answer
to the question you asked?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
STOP DOING THIS
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Dont even bother responding my friend
Everything Bad = Jon Daniels’ fault
Everything Good = Nolan’s doing
You win by not responding. The more you ignore him, the weaker he gets.
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Cave
I believe that Donuts put this team together but he had to have Nolan Ryan here to implement change (revamp the pitching philosophy of this organization) and also carry credibility with the room.
Almost all Ranger FO dumbassery (the foolish trades and expenditures) came to a screeching halt on that glorious day in February.
It’s probably embarrassing for JD to have to submit his trade proposals to Nolan for approval when almost all other GMs have full decision-making capabilities but it’s a system that seems to help Donuts.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
I know
But I’m bored.
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
Ever seen the movie, A Beautiful Mind? ha
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Cave
It’s been a day, don’t you need to ask me about 73-89?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Excuse me Mr. Josey Donuts
i asked wyoranger a question. Thank you.
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Unbelievable...
Even with his injuries, Italiano’s upside is considerable, and I think Gallagher is at least a solid back of rotation guy. I can’t believe Beane pulled the trigger on that.
Just out of curiousity
Beane has been so good, so long, that there seems to be a willingness in some quarters to give him a pass
What if you replaced the name Beane with Rudy.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Then this thread gets A LOT longer quickly....
But point well-taken.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
It's a lot easier to critique a GM than a hitting coach.
by LiamP on Jul 13, 2009 1:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't get it much
I’m not a big fan of Beane, but I’d have thought he’d get the better of any Beane/Kevin Towers deal.
But I think the real story here is how bad the Rich Harden deal was. That trade just stank of a panic hot potato move – Beane didn’t want to be holding Harden when he inevitably got injured, so he just dumped him for the best offer at the time, which was a couple of mediocre prospecty players from the Cubs. Imagine what they could have gotten for Harden at the end of last year if he had stayed and put up the numbers he did with the Cubs? That deal is right up there with the Tim Hudson deal for just awful, bad moves.
What I’m struggling with it whether dumping a player for fear of having him when he got injured is or isn’t a Beane move. I wouldn’t think Beane is that risk averse, but maybe he really is – if you think back on his trades in recent years, one can hypothesize that he hates any risk in established players (though he’ll accept it in prospects).
Go Rice Owls!
What about '07?
That year, Beane fielded a team with players with injury histories. Shannon Stewart, Milton Bradley, Mark Kotsay, etc. This probably has more to do with a perceived market inefficiency with injury prone players than anything else.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 13, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Does anyone have the link to that Dan S. article?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
BTF
It is on the front page of BTF, towards the left of the page.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 13, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Hairston
is not a every day player, he wasn’t every day till injuries made him one, and has had a good run, SD is selling on the high here.
What would Cruz bring back?
Anyone interested in entertaining that thought?
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
If the Rangers start drifting away from first
after the ASB, then yeah, I’d be open to hear some offers for any of our 2nd tier of OFers – Murphy, Byrd, and Cruz.
The thing about Cruz is that if you trade him then you’d better get back a good hitting prospect in return. Because while the future looks bright from 2010 on, the offense still has questionmarks, and it isn’t obvious who would be able to replace Cruz’s bat in coming years. Everyone always says pitching, pitching, pitching; but other than Smoak and Borbon, this organization is really shallow in position player prospects.
Go Rice Owls!
Is Borbon
really a top notch offensive prospect? I think there is a good chance he is basicly like Ellsbury. He doesn’t have much power, and he doesn’t walk enough to be a high OBP guy, and most likely he will walk even less under Rudy.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
I think
Ellsbury is a pretty solid comp, it’s defensive value that makes him a good position player prospect.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I'm not sure
how many great glove, mediocre bats you can carry without sinking your offense. If you are set that way at SS, CF, and C, you basicly concede 3 innings, don’t you?
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Well
I don’t think all 3 of Teagarden/Salty/Max will be mediocre bats, so I think it’s too early to make a definitive statement on the state of catchers. As is, I think a good lineup with Kinsler/Hamilton performing as expected can very much afford to carry both Borbon and Andrus. Heck, for the majority of the season, this team carried 3+ mediocre bats. It can be argued that they’re still carrying 3+ mediocre bats right now.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I don't see any reason
to have much hope for Teagarden or Salty. I’m not sure if Max is up to the defensive parts of catching.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
hope for Teagarden
Well you could look at his minor league OPS, or his major league OPS (.844) and those are a couple things that might give you just a glimmer of hope.
It frustrates me that the guy has a track record of hitting, and so many people are so quick to assume that he’ll never hit.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Really?
Salty is still 24 years old. In his age 24 season, Victor Martinez put up a .678 OPS. Jason Varitek didn’t get a starting gig till he was about 26.
Catchers tend to reach the big leagues at a later age, and, especially their bats, tend to develop slowly. I think it’s perfectly legit to be down on Salty and TT’s performance this year, but to say “there’s no reason to have much hope” is dumb.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Catcher Stagnation Syndrome in effect.
Catchers work so hard on their defense that their offense struggles…who coined that term, one of the BP guys, I think?
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
By the end of his age 24 season
Martinez had 210 major league PAs. Saltalamacchia has 812. By the time Martinez got to that level was the end of his age 25 season, where he was hitting .283/.359/.492.
By the way, I’d like you to show me a study that says that catcher’s bats develop slowly. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen that stated in a reputable study.
I have seen where Jamey stated that Thad Levine had done a study that said at 750 ABs, there was a 90% chance you’d be at your career norms. Salty is currently at 740 ABs.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Sickels & Hardball Times disagree with you on catcher's bats.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I'm trying to find that specific study
by John Walsh, but I remember reading it.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
sorry dont know how to link properly but here are a few:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1953008
Apparently dates back to Bill James in the late 80s.
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
but I think that type player profiles just fine in this lineup as long as you have a couple of mashers on the outfield corners. And another one at DH.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Like the Twins, perhaps.
Some of their other guys are stepping up this year, but for the most part they’ve been Mauer and Morno + a couple of decent bats + some plus defense slap hitters who can defend like hell.
And wouldn’t you know it their offense isn’t usually that great but their pitchers always look better than you’d think they would.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 13, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Borbon
I don’t really think he’s an offensive prospect at all. Which only emphasizes how dire this team’s long-term offensive outlook is.
Whereas people are happy about this season so far, the disappointment this team has seen in Davis and Saltalamacchia cannot be overstated in my opinion. This team desperately needs some more offensive potential to develop – preferably someone who will actually get on base.
Go Rice Owls!
No...
I’d rather see what guys like Millwood, Padilla, Blalock, and Byrd would bring back.
Unless you are getting a young TORP, I wouldn’t deal Nellie.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
you wouldn't get a TORP for him
and we don’t have a COF bat to replace him with.
Plus he will be very cheap the next couple years, I don’t see anyway that there would be a realistic deal to move him and improve the team.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
with the state of our system
I’d argue that a middle order COF is more necessary to the future than another young pitcher. We have waves of alternatives coming up for the pitching spots, not so much with middle order mashers.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Exactly...
and I really don’t want to see guys like Jones and Byd hitting cleanup behind Hamilton anymore. Cruz is the only big RH bat the Rangers have ’til Smaok arrives and we have seen him struggle against lefties.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Well
If you deal Cruz, you are committing yourself to an outfield with Hamilton in RF, Borbon in center, and some kind of Murphy platoon in left (probably Boggs).
I think that’s viable, but it isn’t something you’d move Cruz for just so you could do that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 13, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Okay...
but then who hits in the middle of the order?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I'd say
Kinsler or Hamilton.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
But that means you put an outmachine
in the leadoff spot.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
You kind of
got one now. Kinsler only has an OBP of 327, which is below the AL average of all players. You’d think a leadoff guy would at least be better than average at avoiding outs.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Then it'd be a lead off guy who not only
is an out machine but has less power than our current guy.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I gotta hope
we can find someone with a 350+ OBP to lead off. If only Borbon new how to walk 16% of the time like Rickey Henderson.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Right now the only good OBP guys (>.350) on this team
are Young and Murphy. Murphy is the only one on the club who seems to know how to walk. I’d just as soon have him leading off on days when he’s playing over Kinsler
Go Rice Owls!
Right now being the operative phrase.
Many players on this team are underperforming, they will return to career norms eventually.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I guess I'd be alright...
with a 3-4-5 of Kinsler/Hamilton/Smoak.
But I’d like a 2-3-4-5 of Kinsler/Hamilton/Cruz/Smoak much better. Then you could also drop MY down to 6th. Although I doubt Wash will move Ian from the leadoff spot or MY down in the order.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Conceivably...
…you go:
Borbon
Kinsler
Hamilton
Smoak
Davis
Young
Murphy/Boggs
Catcher
Elvis
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 13, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
We're thinking along the same lines...
with the lineup, but I like the middle of that order a lot more with Cruz in it.
Again, I’d be willing to listen if someone was offering a young TORP, but as Tricer suggests, I don’t see that happening.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
MY is not going down in the order
no matter how much he sucks. Washington won’t do it.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 13, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
If Davis doesn't hit well enough
to be in the middle of the order, we probably need a new 1B/DH.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Um, Boggs.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 13, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Davis can be good...
…for a .330 OBP and .550 or so slugging.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 13, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
I know you do
I hope you’re right. I’m not particularly criticizing Davis in your lineup – as Cahill says, if he can’t put up decent numbers, he’s not going to be a full time DH/1b option anyway, and if he is putting up good numbers he’ll be a perfect #5 or #6 hitter.
I just don’t like that our lineup is full of out machines (even if their non-outs are often extra-base hits)
Go Rice Owls!
Yeah
Hamilton/Borbon/Cruz is far preferable to the alternative where Murphy or Boggs is always out there, but if you could get a good long term OF prospect in return for Cruz, I’d probably go for it.
OF is actually kind of a weak position around baseball right now it seems like. Cruz has value, and it is possible that the Rangers would be dealing high on him if they were to trade him in 2009.
Go Rice Owls!
Who was it that said
that one productive player is always preferable to a productive platoon?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
If we were going to trade Cruz
I’d want someone like Schaefer from ATL. I seriously doubt ATL would make that trade but that’s who I would want.
That's an intriguing notion.
For both teams.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 13, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, it does make some sense
the Braves could really use a bat like Cruz’s if they somehow stay close to the Phillies. I’d be willing to throw in a C+/B- pitching prospect as well.
Go Rice Owls!
You like Schafer that much?
I’m not completely sold on him.
I’ve gotta admit the idea of plucking a potential stud young 5 tool CF’er is mighty sexy, but Nelly is really good and fills a major need for us this year and the next 2-4 years after as well.
It’d be really tough to trade Nelly for a young unproven OF’er right now, even if it is the right “value” play.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 13, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions
From the comments of Dan S's take on Beane
As has been the case for much of his career, Beane’s shown a good eye for minor league and amateur talent and a poor eye for major league talent.
Over the past 1.5 years, they seem to have gotten pretty good returns for Haren, Swisher, Kotsay, Blanton, and Harden. On the other hand, nearly all of his veteran acquisitions (Cabrera, Nomar, Giambi, Springer, Holliday, Sweeney, and Thomas the second time around) have been worse than projected.
Kind of funny to hear Beane described exactly as JD was described in the media and around here over the past few years.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Beane needs to be put in a Nolan Ryan Headlock™!
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Jul 13, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Perusing good ol THT
Interesting article on pitching prospects v. hitting prospects. Is it time for the Rangers to start targeting hitting prospects big time now that they are so unbelievably stacked in pitching prospects?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/matt-wieters-or-david-price/
I dont agree with their logic...
Yes, hitting prospects may be a safer bet…the issue though, pitching always has more value than hitting
you win with pitching and that will always be the case
He is not saying that you DONT
need pitching just saying what type of pitching to pursue. What to use your resources and what not to. Also hitting is only a safer bet in the top 50 prospects and then it evens out near the end of top 100 and slightly outside of it. I think you slightly missed the pt of the article.
“In conclusion, conventional wisdom says to build a team through young pitching. However, data I have collected show that the safest and most productive way for a team to build itself is through top hitting prospects, and then stocking up on lower rated pitching prospects”
Doesnt say you dont need pitching just suggests which type of pitching to go after and which hitters if given the choice.
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
At the end of the day
isn’t it such a longshot that you should just take the best player available, regardless of hitting or pitching?
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Yeah, but their plan seemed to be to lean toward pitching..
I remember hearing quotes to the effect that “we can trade the pitching surplus for bats”.
I see two flaws in that approach: one being the difficulty in managing & evaluating all that pitching, and two is being willing to TRADE that pitching. The day we actually DO trade a couple of young arms will be the return of my ulcer, unless our ML staff is so loaed we can afford to trade a stud. :-)
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
This article
would seem to disagree when dealing with elite pitching and hitting prospects.
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah but that article's prescription
In conclusion, conventional wisdom says to build a team through young pitching. However, data I have collected show that the safest and most productive way for a team to build itself is through top hitting prospects, and then stocking up on lower rated pitching prospects.
Seems to not be a particularly effective postseason model. I just don’t think great frontline starters are available all that often, and I think they definitely help your chances in postseason play.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
I think we are discussing slightly
different things here. If you have a choice between Roy Halladay and say (trying to think of comparably hitter, Pujols no bc he is otherwordly) maybe Justin Morneau, you absolutely take Halladay. Neither of those guys are prospects. They are proven commodities. However, if you were to deal for one of them you are better off dealing Feliz (or even Holland) than Smoak if you had the choice.
The author is talking more about prospects. Obviously, he admits that the odds of either being a bust are very low however Wieters is a much better bet to become a superstar and everyday player. Odds of being an AS is about the same for each.
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions
How many frontline starters
do you get when you take them only in the last 40 rounds or so? It just seems to me that the real front line guys, are usually 1st rounders like Lincecum, Halladay, Greinke or undrafted free agents.
If you don’t draft pitching in the 1st round, when it is the best player available, you reduce dramatically your chances of having a superstar pitcher, it would seem to me. Now I’m not saying always take the pitcher in the first round, but, I think I would have a huge problem with a plan of never taking a pitcher in the first round.
While great hitting and average pitching may be a good template to make the playoffs, it seems like a frontline pitcher or two really helps your chances in the playoffs.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Especially now that...
…they’ve eliminated draft-and-follows…
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 13, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Do you why they did that?
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 13, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Stops cases
where guys sign the day before the next draft.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Is that really that bad though?
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 13, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know
imagine if Smoak did it and he lost a year of developmental time. That would have been pretty awful.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Yeah, I guess can see it.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 13, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Im not saying
you never draft a pitcher. For example there is no hitter available that I would have wanted over Purke. I agree with the BPA philosophy especially in a draft with fairly weak hitters (iirc). Just saying if you had two equally elite prospects. The hitter is the better choice. Obviously, if you are stacked in regards to positional prospects or every hitter that is available isnt near what you think the pitcher is then of course draft the pitcher. The key is comparing two LIKE prospects. While I think JD’s philosophy of drafting and trading for pitching is terrific, im just wondering is it time to be more aggressive acquiring young hitting? Not reaching for a player like Mendonca in the draft but using the pitching to acquire a quality hitter. For the first time in a while I can honestly say the outlook for positional prospects in our system looks pretty bleak.
by Michael Cave on Jul 13, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Positional prospects
Do we really need alot of positional prospects right now?
Our IF (including Davis at 1B instead of Hank) is all under team control for the next 4+ years with 3 of the 4 being in the prime or pre-prime of their careers. Our Of has a young platoon in LF with Murphy and Boggs, a young CF on the cusp in Borbon, and Hamilton and Cruz in RF who are both under team control for 4+ years.
Sure it would be nice to have ton of positional talent to watch but in reality there isn’t any room for them in the major leagues now or in the near future and all it would do is cause us to moan and groan about trading one or more of them away.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Except
most anyone you draft is likely 3 from contributing anyway, and you certainly can keep them up to 6 years in the minors fairly easily.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
You always want some depth
Just because the infield is pretty well covered now doesn’t mean it will be in a year. Things can change fast. What if Davis doesn’t recover his stroke – who is your other DH/1b? What if Young gets injured – who takes over 3rd? Kinsler has missed considerable time with injuries before. Salty/Tea/MaxRam have stalled in their offensive growth. I can’t be too excited about an OF with Murphy/Boggs/Hamilton/Cruz/Borbon and a precipitous drop after that. Hammy gets injured, Cruz has been Cruz his whole career and Murphy/Boggs/Borbon all have ceiling issues.
Go Rice Owls!
depth
The only position I am really worried about depth-wise is 3B. At catcher we have Max who could step in right now if needed (it would be a drop off for sure but thats why hes in the minors and not the majors) and then Pina starting next year as depth. We have 1B covered. Smoak could probably step in now if needed and although it would be a dropoff it wouldn’t be for too long. After him I think there are plenty of guys coming up who could fill in at 1B in an emergency (Moreland, Smith, etc). Utility wise Vallejo and Lemon along with Osuna is plenty. In the OF on top of the 5 you listed there is Golson who could be used in a pinch and then a gaggle of guys who could be called upon.
To me it sounds like you want to have a ML ready backup in the minors at every position so there is no dropoff if someone goes down. Thats just not possible. Thats why the teams who have alot of injuries tend to struggle in the standings. Its very rare to have ML caliber players standing by in the minors in case of injury. If you have them there it is usually due to having a veteran in front of them on the ML team. With the Rangers we have young veterans on the ML team which means any ML caliber guys we do have will probably be traded off rather than let rot in the minors.
Hopefully we don’t make the same mistake we made with Adrian Gonzalez and just start throwing guys in deals as filler but I am confident we have grown since then.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well,
I think I’d use the state of the farm as the tiebreaker with two relatively equal prospects. If we were pitching deprived, I’d go pitching, but since we seem to be a little thin at positional players, I’d go that way right now.
However, that study wouldn’t provide much input to my decision.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
The article
is trying to say that great frontline hitters are actually harder to come by by pure chance. There are very few Ian Kinsler’s out there – the best hitters are pretty obvious from the start. If/when you ahve one, you can be pretty certain you’re going to get good value from them.
Pitchers are more variable – both in getting to that point as well as once there. The high variance of pitchers means that you can “get lucky” more often, but it also means that there is rarely a sure thing with them. Of course, as a player moves up through systems, their variance decreases and you get a better idea of what they really are. Ideally, your system has a lot of high variance high ceiling pitchers all pushing towards that high expected value (which makes them assets to then trade for high ceiling, low variability hitters)
Given this theory, the ideal strategy becomes (1) draft the premier hitter, if available (2) if no premier hitter, take a high ceiling, high risk pitcher. We’ll note that in relatively small sample size, this has been JD’s draft strategy.
Go Rice Owls!
"this has been JD’s draft strategy"
Agree completely.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
BINGO!!!
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
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