Here is an interesting article about some of the inherent problems with evaluating pitchers via DIPS or FIP; specifically, the problem lies with the calculation of component ERA, a factor in DIPS or FIP. Essentially, the author shows that a ground out with runners on is more important than a ground out with no men on (data is provided for other various outs). However, component ERA does not take this, or some other factors, into account. The article does not end with any real conclusions (other than the possible limitations of DIPS or FIP), but poses two important questions when trying to refine how we evaluate pitchers:
- How much of situational pitching is skill?
- How can we use a pitcher's situational tendencies to predict his ERA?