Evan Grant ranks the Ranger roster
Evan Grant ranks the 39 players who have been on the active roster this year for Texas in order of value for the team...
Not surprisingly, he has Michael Young, Kevin Millwood and Marlon Byrd 1-2-3, and (also not surprisingly), I vehemently disagree with those choices...
Putting Young #1 puts a whole lot more importance on his intangibles and leadership than I think is really warranted -- if he's really such a great leader and all that, you'd think that he'd have played on more than one over .500 team in the majors.
Millwood, we've covered at length. I'm not going to re-visit it.
But the top two slots deserve to be Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz...they've hit as well as Young, and they've done it while playing much, much better defense than Young has at third base. And Byrd hasn't hit as well, or been as good defensively, as any of those three, so I don't see how he gets slotted ahead of Kinsler or Cruz, either...
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Ridiculous
>>>Continues to be a quiet, low-key example of how to do things professionally and correctly.<<<
Didn’t he cry about being moved to third? Even going so far as to publicly refuse the move originally.
>>>His influence on young players is seen from Ian Kinsler to Elvis Andrus.<<<
Young has a magical way of only having positive influences. None of his negatives (which we all have) could ever be noticed by a team member.
Young’s a nice player and I’ll even blindly accept that he’s a good guy, but #1 on the list is ridiculous.
And, believe it or not, despite -5.1 in batting.
Tiny E is, in fact, the 3rd best position player on this team in the 1st half.
1. Kinsler – 2.8 WAR / worth $12.5 M
2. Cruz – 2.7 WAR / worth $12.2 M
3. Milly – 1.7 WAR / worth $7.8 M
4. Tiny E – 1.5 WAR / worth $6.5 M
5. Padzilla tha Thrilla – 1.4 WAR / worth $6.2 M
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 12:38 PM CDT reply actions
He's the best hitter and the worst fielder, interestingly enough.
11.3 batting and -11.5 RAR fielding.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
He's tied with Padzilla tha Thrilla at 1.4 / worth $6.2 M
in other words, he’ll have to fix the glove a bit to be worth his contract for the year.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Contract
I chose not to bring up Young’s contract since it didn’t really matter in this discussion. However, since you have…
He’s underperfomring that thing all ready three years from now will be scary.
Nice player, awful contract.
How does his contract not matter?
This is a discussion of player value to the team … contract is certainly relevant in setting expectations.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Well I guess Andrus wins!
I don’t think thats the value to the team they mean heh, but obviously its true.
the preceding post was a great success.
His salary has all ready been paid, essentially. What’s most important then is his production.
The biggest way salary matters is w/r to adding personnel to the team for this season. It might also matter w/r to moving him, which isn’t happening, partly because of his salary.
Sure it matters, but it’s not nearly as importnat for this discussion as his actual play.
If you want to include it in the discussion, I’m more than happy to let it in. It just further illustrates how overrated he is.
Contract ought to matter.
Look at his comments on Max Ramirez.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
This Kinsler love is sickening.
Why do his supporters ignore his last two months of suckitude? I doubt he finishes the year with an OPS above .800.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Well
He’s been terrific defensively and his performance offensively for the entire season is one of the best, if not the best, on the team.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
No
His offensive performance in April was out of this world and is propping up his last two months of suckitude
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Okay
His offensive performance in April was out of this world and is propping up his last two months of suckitude
Does that really make any difference?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah it does
1/3 of his season he was phenominal
2/3 of the season so far he has been below average and even worse considering the spot in the lineup he hits in.
Overall his numbers still look good but its not because hes been good lately.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I guess I don't see why...
…that makes a difference.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
It doesn't
or at least shouldn’t. Production is production.
It’s a modified AROd argument how his homers don’t matter as they only coem when they’re up 7-2 and in innings 7-9.
"Production is production"
No it is not. A 2 run bomb in the bottom of the 7th when you team is down 0-8 has less value then a 2 run HR if the score is tied in the 7th.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Well good thing kinsler has (by random chance) hit much better with runners on to maximize his production
And I don’t think April consisted of a bizarre month long 0-8 situation.
the preceding post was a great success.
Their win values may be different...
…but their predictive value going forward is the same.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions
And what do you predict for
Ian going forward?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Some BABIP regression?
He’s sitting at .241 on the year, but his career mark is .298.
Odds are that Ian will have a very strong 2nd half.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
What is Ian's BAOPU?
Considering the way he has been swinging it for 6 weeks, that’s more important.
Never argue with a fool. Onlookers might not be able to tell you apart.
Haha
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions
What is his BAUSL?
Batting Average on Uppercut Swings to Left?
I have no objection to man walking on the moon.
How about his career line of a .829 ops? Why should you
change your opinion of him on bad couple months and in particular a 2 week mega slump.
the preceding post was a great success.
Also, his ISO, fwiw.
Has increased steadily over the past two years.
.178 > .199 > .239
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
From a retrospective perspective
1 great month followed by 2 mediocre months is not as valuable as consistency because the marginal value of additional production isn’t steady.
A 1000 OPS followed by two 700 OPS months gives you an average of 800; but you could argue that the difference between 800 and 1000 provides the team with less probability of winning games than the two decrements from 800 to 700. People don’t really do things like calculate marginal value of stats on win probabilities (they assume that it is linear, but it obviously isn’t).
But whatever, from a long-term strategic point of view, obviously Kinsler is more valuable. And defensively he’s been very steady. I don’t think you can be wrong for saying Kinsler has been extremely valuable this year, I just think there is an added value for consistency that you are not recognizing.
Go Rice Owls!
x
you could argue that the difference between 800 and 1000 provides the team with less probability of winning games than the two decrements from 800 to 700.
What would the basis of that argument be?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I think ..
he is saying that it is more valuable to the team to have Ian sit around 800, with an occasional slump to 700 …
Than for Ian to go from 1000 to 700, 700 (averaging out around 800).
The peaks are not worth it when the valleys are that low.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Early in the season
Someone posted a very nice little graph about how as teams score more runs, the marginal probability of winning, per run scored, is a sublinear function, and is only supralinear at really low levels.
Since the Rangers offense typically sits somewhere around the regime where it is sublinear, the marginal benefit of scoring another run is less than the marginal cost of losing another run. It stands to reason that for an individual player, the marginal benefit of going on a tear is less valuable than the marginal cost of having an equivalent, but opposite, slump.
Go Rice Owls!
i think that is a good point
but i wonder if that effect is mitigated by that fact that product is dispersed across 9 players, whose individual peaks and valleys should theoretically should occur with random frequency. So even when a Kinsler has big swings in his production, those swings account for only slightly more than 1/9th of the team’s offense and a dip from 1000 to 700 isn’t as pronounced as one would think when 3 or 4 other players have an OPS swing from ~675 to ~850. SImilarly, Ian’s ascent from .800 to .1000 won’t help the team as much if several other guys are dipping.
I think one of the problems (and reasons Kinsler’s slump has caused so much frustration and lambasting of him) is that his slump happened to unfortunately coincide with a team-wide slump. This did hurt the team’s offensive output in a substantial way, and it makes Kinsler an easy scapegoat, whereas if the rest of the team had been hitting while he cooled off, I think we’d more readily say he just had a streaky, albeit highly valuable first half.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 16, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
>>>but i wonder if that effect is mitigated by that fact that product is dispersed across 9 players<<<
Exactly my point.
Okay
but for the other 8 players, are they more consistent than Ian, on average?
If so, then his streakiness is mitigated.
If not, (as would seem to be the case), we end up having a Bitch Month, where nobody can get it right.
I don’t know that it is prudent to build an offense that way. With the variances in pitching, it would seem to behoove the team to have a few guys that are bedrocks.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
To follow that logic
If the other 8 players are very consistent, then Ian’s streakiness will have a huge marginal effect on the club’s R/G. Okay for the team, not good for Ian’s relative contribution
If the other players are equally streaky, then the whole team will have big swings. Now, not good for the team and not good for Ian.
Go Rice Owls!
Okay, here is the graph

from Ghettobear’s post in April.
http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/4/30/859792/run-distribution-20-games
Obviously work would have to be done to really look at how this maps onto individual players, but since the Rangers typically are right around 5 R/G, it is more important for them not to go down in runs scored than it is for them to go up
Go Rice Owls!
Ditto
It’s not like Kinsler is the only player with hills and valleys. They all have them. Having a 1000 OPS might carry a team for a month if everyone else is on a slump, therfore providing more value as a 1000/700 player than an 800/800 might provide.
As far as I can tell only variance will account for the some vlaue in consistancy, and if that’s the case than there is no value.
I'm sorry
but the “he’s only one person on a team!” argument really rings hollow.
If you are going to analyze players individually, you have to accept that there is some canceling out effect. Yeah, everyone’s variance tends to cancel out and you tend to have smoother team averages than individuals. So? We’re talking about understanding an individual’s contribution here.
And saying that Kinslers slumps are not important because other people would likely carry him and that when he’s hot he can carry other people is irrelevant. That only increases the noise in the overall system (a bunch of consistent players would never have had a June like Texas just had). And a noisy team that is going between 7 R/G and 3 R/G more often than staying around 5 R/G simply won’t do as well
Go Rice Owls!
They’d also never have the May TX had either.
If there is true value in consistancy I’m guessing it’s not a real large amount of added value.
I definitely think using a player’s yearly or career stats provide a good enough picture of their true value.
I think that to look at consistency...
…it might be better to consider what each stat is trying to tell us. OPS is valuable to because it lets us account for how much sluggers bring to the table, but it probably overrates the slugging aspect. Compare that to OBP which measures more controllable/predictable skills.
In other words, hitting home runs is going to be subject to a lot more variance than drawing walks and contact percentages.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Good enough picture?
Well, that obviously depends on what you’re looking for. If looking over a career, yeah it doesn’t matter. When assigning value over 3 months – I think it matters.
I’m not saying consistency is a huge factor. But it is a factor, and I suspect it is real (Completely wild, unsubstantiated guess – I’d maybe decrement a player’s OPS by [10points]/[100 point monthly variance]. Again, completely made up heuristic you shouldn’t pay attention to)
Go Rice Owls!
.....but the impact on the team's offense and chances to win is the same no matter how weighted it was
April: .810 ops
May: .810 ops
June: .810 ops
Wouldn’t actually be more valuable, just a lot more comfortable to watch.
And besides, don’t we all know Kinsler isn’t a .220 hitter? We’ve got 1800 at bats that say otherwise. Its a slump. A bad one, but a slump. If he still had a .920 ops then he wouldn’t just be the best player, he’d be it by leaps and bounds. But none the less, hes still been one of the rangers best players.
The only reason I’d care that kinsler was good in april instead of june is if he I was considered it was a total fluke and may/june is what he really is. I hope people arn’t that easily swayed.
the preceding post was a great success.
I think consistency is a huge deal in this type of ranking
Which is why Kins is not on top because he hasn’t been consistent
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
all rankings are silly
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Whats to say this one isn't correct
Its Evans opinion. Hes not going by any stats or anything its his opinion as to who has been more valuable to this club so far. I can’t argue with Young at 1 or Millwood at 2 based on their consistency. Just like if he had put Ian number one I could see that but I also think its acceptable to drop him for playing like shit the last two months
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
People Love Lists.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
You can't cherry pick...
..what numbers to use. Like I said below, if he were a rookie or journeyman who put up one great month then was awful for 2 months, you would be concerned he would hurt your team the rest of the way. But we have enough data to know that even if he isn’t as good a hitter as he was last year, he can still be a great player. Especially considering his improved defense and what position he plays.
If you want to discuss where he hits in the lineup fine, but there’s no doubt that he’s been (one of) the Rangers best player(s).
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
He has been one of the better players
In April he was the best. Overall hes close to the top but his lack of consistency drops him down a couple spots.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
win probability
His WPA is -0.41!
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
yes
My problem is his plate approach hasn’t changed when his superhuman numbers subsided. When pitchers started figuring out after april that he swings hard all the time at pitches up and/or away, he hasn’t taken anything off his swing, worked on taking pitches the other way, or shortened up and put the ball in play with 2 strikes.
Its still aggressive-come-hell-or-high-water and he needs to change his approach when the count, matchup, or game circumstances call for something other than a 400 foot shot. The popups and strikeouts are getting old.
Way to not lurk and instead shit all over yourself during your first fanshot.
-FirebatM3 to Ryan2907. 6/3/09.
by SarasotaRanger on Jul 16, 2009 1:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Absolutely it does...
Because the Rangers didn’t need him to go 6-for-6 with a cycle that wonderful April night. 3 for 4 with a homer would have sufficed. The Rangers didn’t need over a +1000 OPS from Kinsler in April, when the Rangers only won 10 games. They needed him to hit better AFTER April to contribute to the other 38 wins…not to mention the 39 total losses. Put another way, Kinsler played a major factor in 10 of the Rangers 87 games – and has contributed very little the rest of the time.
That’s why stats are so deceiving – outliers abound, padding the overall stats, making it appear that a player has had more impact on a team’s winning than you think. And isn’t that what this thing is about – winning?
Since May 1, he has a .225 average, He is hitting .210 all-season in his first AB with an OBP below .300. Lead-off or not, those are NOT good numbers – especially not good when you (should) have sluggers behind you in the order.
Blame it on Kinsler for not taking well to the #1 spot or Washington for playing him out of position. But we can probably name 10 other guys on this team that have contributed to more wins directly than Kinsler has – or in the least, has sucked in less percentage of the teams total games played.
by Bats and Balls on Jul 16, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Or he had an .883 ops 15 games ago and an out of this world slump makes his season look worse.
the preceding post was a great success.
I guess if you only care
about R, HR, RBI, SB and defense then he is having a good season.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Compare him to other 2B
Using OPS, he ranks sixth in the majors behind Zobrist, Utley, F. Sanchez, Cano, and Hill.
Using WAR, he ranks third in the majors behind Utley (4.8) and Zobrist (4.6) at 2.8. The other two’s value is so much larger due to their OPS’ over 1.
Your argument that his numbers are propped up by a great April would carry more weight if he was a rookie who we didn’t know much about. But we have enough data on him to know that he is a good hitter. And to further that point, his BABIP is .241 right now.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
So Evan Grant still has an irrational crush on Michael Young
What else is new?
"You know, I’m playing entirely too much." - Andruw Jones
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
I think Byrd deserves a lot of credit.
When Hamilton went out, he became basically the only guy who can effectively play center field. He’s been solid defensively (2.6 Range Factor/9, though his arm leaves something to be desired), and with an OPS in the .800s, he’s been a solid contributor.
"I love winning." - rockin_rangers, on May 16, 2009
I think the argument isn't..
that he hasn’t been a valuable contributor, just not he’s not the 3rd best player on this team.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh no, I agree.
He hasn’t been a top 3 player; I’m just saying that he’s been a big contributor.
My ranking:
1) Cruz
2) Kinsler
3) Francisco
4) Millwood (/ducks to avoid LSB’s wrath)
5) Andrus
6) Young (/ducks again)
7) Byrd
8) O’Day
9) Padilla
10) Wilson
"I love winning." - rockin_rangers, on May 16, 2009
Millwood at least needs to be given credit for eating innings if nothing else.
Which helps the bullpen and tea in general.
And honestly, if a hitter had an obscenely high babip.. would we try to say he wasn’t valuable because it was lucky? We’d recognize it’s relevance going forward, but he still DID get out of all those jams lucky or not.. well until the past few starts.
the preceding post was a great success.
DAMN YOU, GHETTOBEAR!
I’m doing all this to make you happy! :)
"I love winning." - rockin_rangers, on May 16, 2009
6 seems reasonable for Young
It may be low, in fact.
I think anywhere in the 4-7 range is reasonable for him.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Those rankings are hilariously bad
I would be more upset if I didn’t completely see the top 3 coming.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Who overrates who more
AJM overrating Kinsler
Evan overrating Young.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Jul 16, 2009 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
The latter.
No question.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Signature
i.e. read mine.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jul 16, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Who is it you feel's using statistics for support rather than illumination? Grant?
(Since I’m pretty sure we’re not talking about telephones here…?)
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
The Andrew Lang quote
was located to mock many of the arguments presented here. Normally not Adam, who has a way of equivocating things, and who points out stats at times that counter popular perception. It’s a generality, applicable here because IMO any attempt to rank players in accord with their contribution can be jumbled by positional expectation and league average norms, by weighting SLG or OBP or RISP data heavier than other factors, by just about any mix of defensive data, and by isolating events in situational play. I’ve NO quarrel with performance statistics or their use. But if you get down to assimilating things pertinent to an individual players’ relative goodness, I think you have to take anomalies and situational events into account . You know we had an agreeable discussion with differing opinions on ‘most dangerous hitter’. I never got back on that. The turnkey for me was that among Cruz’s 28 walks in 2009, eleven came in situations where the Rangers could tie the game, take a lead, or extend a narrow lead. He was pitched around, and IBB’d (I think) three times of those eleven. Although that sounds like it ties into “the players and coaches voted him in” support, it had a bearing on wins and losses thus far. And doesn’t show up in his cumulative numbers.
Wow I sputtered this out too long.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jul 16, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah, so it's me you're mocking here?
Fair enough, though I would hate to think I’ve been pigeon-holed as a guy who doesn’t appreciate anything but stats in baseball. Player evaluation calls for a combination of quantitative and qualitative criteria, and I’d like to think I employ both in my posts.
I think Young is the target of some unwarranted hate from some folks, not least because some of what he brings to the table can’t be quantified. On the other hand, I think he gets a lot of unwarranted love from people who are too eager to embrace his “intangibles” while setting aside his performance relative to pay and position (not to mention his demand to be traded upon being asked to move to third base).
As for Cruz: again, I agree he’s one of the most dangerous hitters the Rangers have, and one many pitchers would not want to face in “one-swing” situations. Even given your points about walks, though, I’m not sure I’d put him at the top of that list right now, especially given the struggles he had in June. This is one time when I’m not “leaning” only on stats, by the way, but rather relying at least partially on what I saw from Cruz over the past month or so.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Yikes
No not singling out any individual, particularly not you. It’s a generality aimed at those few who use only cumulative stats and discredit the less tangible aspects. I try not to have player favorites, but concede that I think Cruz and Young have been the positional mainstays so far this year, as well as bucking some of the critical tide on both. I was touting Cruz just as soon as the Milwaukee trade was made, sort of “out of left field”, because I believed he’d be a real contributor (even with growing pains and adjustments to make). And Young, even if just in the name of consistency, I’ve supported since 2001 as “a starter”. He’s sort of exceeded that label. Kinsler is a helluva talented player, and I hope he matures well. For me, he doesn’t have to be the best at his position or a league leader in multiple categories to be worth rooting for, but he has the talent to excel, that’s for sure. And I don’t really know what to expect from pitchers, know less about their value analyses, and think they are even more subject to certain situational factors than position players. Those factors not under their control incluse different umpires’ zones, matchups with opposing hitters, opponents BABIP, fielder positioning, runners on or not, etc. DIPS tries to rate them, but even it is not apparently a complete picture.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jul 16, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with most all of this.
I give much credit to your eye for and unwavering support of Cruz, and, yes, Young is definitely more than Joe Starter, whatever his shortcomings. As for Kinsler: I’ve been a big fan of his for a while, but I have to admit that I’ve been shaking my head at him a lot this season.
The thing about rankings is that it’s often unclear what’s being ranked. If we’re looking purely at first-half contributions, for example, Millwood’s “luck” over the first half of the season doesn’t change the results and stats he’s posted ~ even though it should send up red flags when projecting his performance going forward.
More generally: while I’d buy stock in wOBA, UZR, +/-, tRA, FIP, and WAR if they were public offerings, I shake my head at folks who think they’re the be-all, end-all holdings in a robust player evaluation portfolio. (Honestly, though, I haven’t “met” many of those sorts of people here.)
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Young
Where’s Laird in the discussion. ;-)
Full disclosure: I was there eating up every word on Laird.
Definitely
at least the lovefest for Kinsler is understandable. The lovefest for Laird was completely inexplicable, after all the hate carpetbombing of the superior Rod Barajas.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Of course the Laird love was justified..
After all, he was homegrown – no, wait, never mind…
Ok, he was likeable and humble - no, wait, never mind…
Ok, I got nothing…
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
I freely admit...
…that part of it was because I think he got Bucked over by Buck and John Hart after he got hurt.
He won the job in 2004, was playing well, sprained his thumb, came back from the d.l. prematurely because the Rangers were inexplicably in the race and needed a backup catcher, but couldn’t hit because his hand was still jacked up.
And what is his reward? Being sent back to AAA the next year (and being told from the outset he wouldn’t have a chance to make the team, much less win his starting job back, before spring training even started), and then getting to ride the pine the following year, so that Popup could play.
I don’t get it. The old “you don’t lose your job because of an injury” rule that everyone seems to happy with went out the window with him, when him getting hurt meant one of Buck’s Bobos from Arizona could play.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
you don’t lose your job because of an injury
I hate that stupid rule.
I don’t care how a player gets his chance. If he’s shown he’s better, he’s better.
The biggest problem here is Barajas wasn’t better and wasn’t likely to improve where Laird might have.
I agree with you
and so does Lou Gehrig. Wally Pipp would have liked that rule though.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Except
Barajas was better and all Laird ever had going for him was SSS.
There is a reason that Laird isn’t lighting the world on fire in Detroit. He’s just not much of a player.
Buck made the right call, and played the right player.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
I do think the Laird Love was somewhat justifiable from his performance, especially w/r to Barajas.
I think the LL was in part augmented by the apparent lack of an eye towards developing a future winner over playing a Proven Veteran.
Except
Rod Barajas was flat a better catcher in his entire time with Texas than Laird was in his time here. I think he handled the defensive duties better, and he had a little more pop in his bat than Laird had.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Where would you slot Kinsler on this list?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Rankings are gay
I don’t understand your argument though. Why is Kinsler at the top of this list instead of someone like Frankie? Because he plays defense and ‘hits’?
by oc on Jul 16, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
4 or 5
Cruz, Feldman and Millwood ahead of Kinsler, maybe FX2. Kinsler would have been higher, but his fade and the fact that he is up leading off with a fairly hacktastic approach counts against him in my value ratings.
To be number 1, he’d need more than a .327 OBP out of the leadoff slot. That seems to subtract some value. That may be RWs fault, but its how I’d rank things.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
As much as Adam is the drug dealer to my addiction that is the rangers...
i have to disagree yet agree at the same time with this one…
kinsler does not need to be at the top. if he didnt have the unbelievable first month he wouldnt even crack the top 10. imagine if he had a normal start, then look at his numbers. yet mike probably doesnt deserve the top spot either.
i realize this is a player rater, but in all honesty most of this teams success comes from maddox. but if you had to pick someone it has to be millwood i guess.
by mikeyoungfuturehof on Jul 16, 2009 1:22 PM CDT reply actions
Kinsler vs. Young
Adam,
I understand that when defense is considered, Kinsler has probably been better than Young this season. But you keep asserting that Kinsler has been better offensively than Young this season. What is this based on? Kinsler’s OBP is bad. Young’s is good. Kinsler’s slugging is good, but no different than Young’s. What am I missing? Steals? Are 13 steals more important than a 40 point difference in OBP? I don’t understand your argument.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
Positional Adjustment
>>>What am I missing?<<<
It’s much harder to find a 2B as ggod as Kinsler than to find a 3B as good as Young.
really?
then why wasnt he voted in by the players?
and why was mike voted in by the players AGAIN?
there are alot more 2b than you know of…
by mikeyoungfuturehof on Jul 16, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
>>>and why was mike voted in by the players AGAIN?<<<
That’s awesome logic.
>>>there are alot more 2b than you know of…<<<
Are there more 2B in the MLB than someone’s not telling me? Maybe a hidden page on baseballreference?
so your telling me that the collective voice of MLB players isnt a reasonable option for determining who is worthy of being an allstar?
you mean to tell me that chase utley isnt a better 2B than ian? what about aaron hill? hell even ben zobrist! thats why the players didnt vote him in, yes the players…
by mikeyoungfuturehof on Jul 16, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
ah, the all important VIBP metric. only surpassed in it’s power of prediction by VIBP (AGAIN)
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 16, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
....
Just because there happens to be a glut of great 2B now doesn’t mean one should assume great hitting 2B will always be easy to find and thus devalue them.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
That's not true
Not this year anyway. Young has the 7th highest OPS amoung 3rd basemen (.112 off the leader) and Kinsler has the 6th highest OPS among 2nd basemen (.196 off the leader). Relative to his position, Young has probably been the better hitter this year.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
D
You need to indlude D in that.
It’s harder to replace the total package, O and D of Kinsler at 2B than the total package of O and and (no) D of Young at third.
offense/defense
I said that when defense is considered then Kinsler has probably been better than Young this year. I was referencing Adam’s point about their hitting so far this year.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
This is a fair point...
…but holy crap what a year it’s been for 2nd basemen.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
I was actually a little surprised what a strong year it’s been. Kinsler has a ways to go before he’s one of the best.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
Seriously?
Kinsler’s got the third-highest WAR for a second baseman in MLB (and second-highest in the AL).
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
well yeah
but the distance between him and the top tier 2B this year is pretty substantial.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 16, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
If by top tier you mean Utley,
then sure. Of course, I think Utley’s a better player than Kinsler.
If you mean Zobrist, as well… well, I want to see what Zobrist does in the second half of the season before making any judgments.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Zobrist
I’m a believer.
He’s completely restructured his swing for the better.
And you don’t just radically improve and stay as consistently good as he has throughout the year, on just a fluke.
Now could he regress? Sure.
But I believe even if he isn’t a > 1.000 OPS, he’s at least a 0.900 OPS guy which is still extremely valuable at 2B.
R
I'm not wondering whether Zobrist is a fluke;
I’m wondering how much better he is (and will be) than Kinsler. If Zobrist regresses some, and Kinsler has a strong second half, that will change the substantial gap between Kinsler and the “top tier” second baseman in the league.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
i think utley pretty much is that top tier
zobrist has been masquerading up there for a half season, but i imagine he’ll regress to just being very good and not otherworldly. what zobrist does has little bearing on the gap between kinsler and utley. if kinsler has a big second half he can make up some ground but it seems unlikely he’s going to catch utley for a while.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 16, 2009 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I just wanted to give Zobrist his props.
When I first saw him in the fantasy ranks, I was like “What?” but after some information digging and research, I became a believer. I’m not sure why, but just something in the way he was hitting and the talking about his hitting and his performance in 2008 screamed “legit” to me.
Here are some articles about the complete re-working of his approach:
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/4/23/849233/cracking-the-zobrist-code-what-is
http://roadtripmkanx.wordpress.com/2009/07/07/the-ben-zobrist-code-pt-2-an-exclusive-interview-with-ben-zobrist-draysbaya-tampa-bay-rays-blog/
Now, if only we could get the guys to work some magic on our hitters here! (Though, I think it’s much harder to teach plate discipline and pitch recognition which is the Rangers’ main problem.)
R
Zobrist
has been consistently good every month. Not so much the one month wonder.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Yeah
I was basically referring to Utley.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
I don't think Kinsler will turn out to be the equal of Utley,
but one can dream.
And even if the dream doesn’t come true, I’d be happy with Kinsler being what Kinsler can be.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
In this post...
…I say Kinsler has hit as well as Young this season.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions
The Kinsler Consistency Argument
is dumb. Nobody is completely consistent over the course of the season. His variance may be greater than most, everyone has a pretty significant amount of it. Moreover, for the tea leaf readers out there trying to suggest that his downward trend represents a sign he’s going to be bad the rest of the year, then I guess we should trade all our players for David Murphy.

Consistency is good, but too often consistent players are really just average players. It’s hard to stay consistently above a .950 OPS.
Gaaa
I hate the overall trendline I see :)
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Dude, I just cite your graphs above
and then you throw a post up saying you disagree with me!
I think that it all amounts to how you weight these certain factors. I would argue that a consistent player is more valuable than an inconsistent player with the same ultimate stat lines (actually, it depends on the situation, an inconsistent pitcher on poor offensive club is probably more valuable than his consistent counter-part).
But obviously an inconsistent player is better than a consistent player with much worse statistics. And with inconsistent players sample sizes become more of an issue – due to Kinsler’s wide variance, it is very hard to predict his second half performance based on his first half performance. This is a very important feature of inconsistency that is important for prediction, but really doesn’t apply to a retrospective list like EG’s
Go Rice Owls!
Haha...
…just reading that now. I don’t disagree with you/myself. My point here isn’t that consistency isn’t valuable or that Kinsler is consistent. It is and he hasn’t been this year. My point is that the argument that Kinsler should be knocked down a 5 spots on Evan’s list is because he isn’t consistent is bunk because all players have variance over the course of a season and I don’t think it’s enough to knock him down that much. It’s kinda hard to tell, but Kinsler was a better hitter than MY for 2 of the 3 completed months so far.
While I haven’t seen data on the variances of individual players, this is why a lot of stat people say that OBP is undervalued in OPS. From what I understand, OBP has less variance over a career and even from minors to majors.
Is a consistent .820 better than wild swings? Absolutely. Is Kinsler’s variance enough to say he’s worse than MY? Absolutely not.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’m not saying Kinsler should be knocked way down for that reason alone, I was just questioning Adam’s statement that the inconsistency doesn’t matter. It does matter.
And frankly, when people argue that Andruw Jones should be cut because he’s only been good for about a week here and there (even though his season stats are respectable), but Kinsler is an all-star despite his May and June, I sniff some selective reasoning.
Go Rice Owls!
One of the reasons I mark Kinsler down
and it may not be all his fault, is that he bats leadoff with an OBP under .330. Maybe its RWs fault for leading him off, but thats just not very good for a leadoff man. League Average is .348 from the leadoff, so I think his lack of getting on has probably let the team down.
On the other hand, MY has been a well above average #2 hitter.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
For what the players are on the team to do
MY has performed above and beyond what the team needed him to do in 2009.
Ditto for Andrus, Cruz, Feldman, Jones and a handful of others.
Kinsler is playing about where one would expect, maybe even a little less than expected.
That isn’t “value” per say, because obviously Kinsler’s expected value was higher than Jones’s coming in.
Go Rice Owls!
Yeah, when you base it on "value"
some non-“pure stats” come into it.
AJ should be a little higher, because he is essentially a minimum wage bat leading the team in OPS.
MY can get marked down because of his pay.
IK can get marked down because he is a fairly mediocre leadoff bat.
Feldman should be marked up because his filling in out of the pen has been brilliant, etc.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
I dunno.
It’s fair to say that the best way to arrange a lineup in a sabermetric way is to put your highest OBP guy up first because you really need them getting on base. But how much do you penalize Kinsler for being out of position? Furthermore, do we know if this is what the Rangers want from their leadoff guy? Personally, I don’t think they’ve told him/tried to get him to work on his OBP the way they have some of their other players.
Still, to get to your point, it is not optimal having an OBP that low as the leadoff hitter. So dock him some for that. But then you have to include his defense, which has been great by any way you look at it. The only player who’s close enough to Kinsler’s WAR that you could bump up due to Kinsler’s misplaced lineup spot would be Cruz. So, realistically, I don’t see how he’s any lower than 2.
by GhettoBear04 on Jul 16, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
"work on his OBP the way they have some of their other players."
I didn’t know that they have been trying to get anyone to work on their OBP
Go Rice Owls!
I think WAR
underestimates pitchers. Just my opinion though, and it would be a tough one for me to press in an argument.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
I assume you mean the FanGraphs WAR based on FIP, correct?
If so, I don’t know that I fully agree that it underestimates them in general, but I would agree that it over and undershoots some pitchers and is not the best available catch-all stat for them out there.
(Not that I think it’s not good.)
Yeah, that's batting order fail.
And then batting order isn’t even that important, so it definitely shouldn’t really matter in any sort of player rankings like this.
Is that Carl's Hockey Stick graph returned from the dead???
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
reply fail..
This was obviously in response to the consistency graph.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Yeah, I started to post 'reply fail fail', but decided to just slink away..
I swear, it looked to me like I had hit ‘post new’ instead of reply.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
better than
DMN blog
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Rotation from here on out
so the rotation from here on out looks like this?
Padilla, Feldman, Hunter, Feldman
Any idea who the 5th is? Harrison ready? If not, or if Hunter falters, what’s the plan?
Bullpen: Grilli, Guardado, Jennings, Holland, O’Day, Wilson, Francisco
I guess they’ll keep Mathis up for a little while and send Nippert down when they need a 5th?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
this is true.
mistake made.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jul 16, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
As long as I don't see
Nippert and another one of his 3 inning starts.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
I would wager...
…it will be Nippert for a start, maybe two, while they scour the trade market looking for someone cheap to plug in there.
Then he gets bumped for Harrison.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Millwood - Padilla - Feldman - Hunter - Harrison
can that get it done, AJM?
With the pen and an offense due for regression, I could see the team making the playoffs.
Once there, I don’t see any way that our pitching stacks up.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah
but once in the playoffs you run Millwood for 2 starts, Padilla for 2 starts, and your hot starter of Hunter, Feldman and Harrison.
Not great, but not nearly as scary looking. Playoff rotations can be 3 man
Go Rice Owls!
Oh, I know.
It would just seem that the margin for error in starting those guys, is very very slim.
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not going to worry about what happens when we make the playoffs
If we do.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Hahahahaha
"We're One Nation Under a Groove"
- Ayjayem
by inactive lsb user on Jul 16, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
coming out of the break
it is Padilla, Feldman, Hunter, Millwood, TBA
I hope TBA doesn’t become Nippert.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Type-o
the 2nd Feldman should be Millwood. That’s how they have it scheduled from the start…
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jul 16, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Everyone should know that Nolan Ryan is #1
I don’t care if he hasn’t actually played. Nolan forced JD to bring up Elvis and moved Young to 3B, then he locked JD in a closet so he couldn’t make any trades, then he had a come to Nolan meeting with every pitcher and told them to eat lots of sausage and pitch complete games.
Then he had a Dos Equis.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jul 16, 2009 2:40 PM CDT reply actions 5 recs
+infinity...
…I’m so m’erf’ing ashamed at myself for not thinking of the Long Tall Texan first.
I have no objection to man walking on the moon.
I put the CJ/O'Day/Francisco bullpen combo in the top 5. Without them we are maybe 7-10 games below 500
we're from Texas
CJ says "Relax"
For the stat guys here....
What have the primary ranger hitters done when it comes to Clutch Hitting, it use to be a Strong point of Michael’s game, i don’t think those numbers are very good this season, anyone have the numbers for all of the rangers hitters?
Larry Parrish Was Da Man!
Last time I looked
MYs clutch numbers were regressing to the norm.
He used to suck Close and Late, and he is having a good year at it this year.
He used to be good at RISP, this year he sucks at it.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
For the team:
Fangraphs’ clutch stats and Baseball Reference clutch stats (click on the stat for a player-by-player listing) for 2009.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).

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