BTB Predicts Playoff Berths
Interesting: % chance of anyone outside of the AL East winning the Wild Card = 0.
6 months ago
FuturePants
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I clicked on the link hoping to see them predict the A's to win.
Sadly, the funniest thing was the 42% chance they gave the Cubs of making the playoffs.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Jul 16, 2009 3:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Technically it's a 2% chance that someone outside of the AL East wins the AL Wild Card
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Jul 16, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Neftali Feliz Flight Paths fanshot on BTB
It's baseball. You don't always get what you want, and you don't always want what you get. --Ed Coffin
by txranger7 on Jul 16, 2009 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe this is blasphemy...
…but if you promise me, right now, that the Rangers will win 83 games and finish second in the division, I’ll take it.
"I love winning." - rockin_rangers, on May 16, 2009
by ghtd36 on Jul 16, 2009 3:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't
I’d rather be given a 30% chance of winning the division, even if it came with a 30% chance of falling below .500
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Jul 16, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess this season is just gravy for me.
2010 has been my ETA for the Rangers, and anything above .500 will constitute a successful season in my eyes.
"I love winning." - rockin_rangers, on May 16, 2009
by ghtd36 on Jul 16, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
gagree
i’ve been telling all my friends about 2010 for almost two years, i’m not about to let this year go, but i’ve got huge hopes for next year
by kevinkinsler on Jul 16, 2009 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see no value
in 2nd place.
I’d take a 30% chance at winning and a 70% chance of ending up in last place over a guaranteed 2nd place finish any day of the week.
First place makes the playoffs, last place gives you a better draft choice, and 2nd place is just the first loser.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Jul 16, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah
But with second place, you get playoff revenue sharing!
by FuturePants on Jul 16, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and that helps me, the fan
how?
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Jul 16, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That data is skewed
It is using pre-season predictions as a basis , which automatically puts the Rangers in a hole, IMO.
Also, how can they have a higher percentage chance of winning the WC, that makes no sense.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Jul 16, 2009 3:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: skewage
As per the article, pre-season projections are a better indicator of future success than in-season performance until late in the season. Also, it’s not as if we’re using idiot talking head projections here. PECOTA was, well, ok, I just looked it up and they didn’t like the Rangers all that much.
Good news: in the next couple days the spreadsheet used to calculate those numbers will be made public, so you can plug in your own numbers and we get to rag on you for a change. ; )
Not sure where you’re looking but there’s a 0% chance listed for winning wild card.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fwiw...
I think PECOTA’s main problem in terms of being off on the Rangers has to do with its inability to properly incorporate the defensive upgrades.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shocker.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Subsistuting CHONE projections for PECOTA,
improves the Rangers odds by about 3 percent. CHONE only predicted a couple of more wins than PECOTA did.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 16, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
CHONE also predicted horrible defense for the Rangers
by Telegraph on Jul 16, 2009 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could the Rangers defense have been predicted to be THIS good?
I mean, there have been individual improvements in addition to personnel changes, right?
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 11:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sky is right
no one thought Elvis would adjust this quickly and be this good, and no one, and I mean not even Adam, thought Kinsler would be this good. Hamilton’s numbers also surprise. I think most of us thought Kinsler and Hamilton could be better, but not nearly by this much.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jul 17, 2009 7:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, but the prediction was that the defense would be absolutely atrocious in CHONE
At least I assume that’s the case – most of the Rangers pitchers are given a penalty of about 0.4 in ERA over their park/league neutral projections. Since CHONE seems to use a fairly neutral park factor for The Ballpark in Arlington, I was told that it was because of defense.
by Telegraph on Jul 17, 2009 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't remember too clearly, but...
I think the original article had very poor defense for the Rangers, because it was based on basically last year’s defenders. Then Sean updated that. But I’m not sure. I’ll try to find it.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This article has Rangers at 69 wins.
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2009/02/team-projected-standings-al-west.html
Must have been updated for this (72 wins):
http://baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm
On pace for 89, right, given actual record? BtB power rankings have them “only” playing like an 82 win team so far, FWIW.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you know if the individual hitter/pitcher pages on the CHONE site were also updated?
Or are they still the the old versions?
by Telegraph on Jul 17, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Rodney refers
To the 20% chance of winning the division, and the 21% chance of getting into postseason play (unless I read both of those wrong). Rounding?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jul 16, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, surely there's a non-zero and <.5% chance the Rangers make the playoffs?
Looking at the source, it’s .27%. Hell, I won’t even claim these are accurate to within 5%.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Justin shall lead them out of the darkness...
Oh, I know what my spreadsheet will say! ;)
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Jul 16, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I generally think most baseball forecasting is nonsense
But as I was about to writeup a full response about why that is the case, I realized that it is silly to criticize a post that is about forecasting for using forecasting.
Basically, the ideal way of doing this would be to use Bayesian statistics where you have your initial prior probability (the preseason analysis) and you proceed to update it throughout the season based on observed results. Some sort of Markov Chain analysis. But that is a lot of work, and the approach here seems adequate enough. I think the real message is that 3rd order wins over half a season aren’t very good predictors.
Since I’m sticking my foot into the whole forecasting business where it doesn’t belong, I’ll go ahead and ask this – are more recent months/weeks more predictive than earlier months/weeks? Maybe the best way to do it would be when predicting July-September’s record, to weight it by 40% pre-season, 30% June, 20% May, 10% April.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Jul 16, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding Bayesian analysis...
That was something that I really wanted to do, but it was getting to be way too much work and I don’t think I was doing it right. Instead I went with the regression method, which usually outputs similar results to a Bayesian style analysis. The only problem would be small sample size in the tests that I used to derive the regression weights, but the results looked about right.
Anyway, the standard error I got on my projections weren’t terrible. Depending on how far into the season I tested, the standard error went up; however, it was always between about 9 – 11 games over a full season, which is about as good as most projection systems.
I’ll go ahead and ask this – are more recent months/weeks more predictive than earlier months/weeks?
That would be interesting, however, I think you would run into way too many small sample size problems. I was only able to test 3 years of 3rd order wins, and if you broke it down by week you would probably get some funky results. Also, I’m not sure how predictive recent performance is.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 16, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, your standard error in projected winning percentage went up, right?
That makes sense. If you computed error by projWINS – actWINS, then your error would go down (hopefully). IT’s a counting stat vs. rate stat type thing.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
projWINS - actWINS
but the Rangers pwn the Angels this year, so pwnWINS>>>>>>>>>projWINS.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jul 16, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whew
When I saw the headline, at first, I thought it said “BTB Predicts Playoff Bertha.”
My next thought was, “who the hell is Playoff Bertha?”
It’s been a long day…
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on Jul 16, 2009 4:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Is Playoff Bertha going to be traded for Roy Halladay?
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah
Playoff Bertha is just a new screen name for Medusa.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jul 16, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Playoff Bertha...
…is who Sam in So Cal took on a Rangers Dream Date for Television.
by FuturePants on Jul 16, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
She is about the only one
who would reply to that site he linked.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jul 16, 2009 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
does anyone
really believe that the A’s will outplay the rangers the rest of the way?
by mo on Jul 16, 2009 10:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wait--what percent?
Mr. Blu—Mr. Blutarsky. Zero POINT zero. Now I want you to tell Mr. Stratton and Mr. Schoenstein exactly what I’m about to tell you right now.
And what’s that, sir?
You’re out! Finished at Faber! Expelled! I want you off this campus at 9:00 Monday morning! And I’m sure you’ll be happy to know that I have notified your local draft boards and told them that you are now all, ALL eligible for military service.
by brettgardner on Jul 16, 2009 11:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great movie
Just saw it again the other day
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
by boomer1 on Jul 17, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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