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Time To Cash In On Millwood?

I'm really sorry if its already been posted, but there's a really interesting story at Fangraphs about Millwood and his numbers this year. The article compares his numbers this year to his numbers two years ago, showing that his strand rate is really the only thing that's keeping his ERA down.

I know this isn't news to most of you, but does anyone think it might be time to see what we can get for Millwood before his ERA regresses to the mean? I don't know the answer myself, but the question lends itself to some (most likely already had) discussion.

 

Pleasures of Strand Rate

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PR Disaster

They couldn’t do it now. The players would throw a collective fit and it would send the wrong message to a fanbase who is starting to get a bit excited.

by bflood36 on Jul 2, 2009 9:43 AM CDT reply actions  

yep, this team can't sell significant pieces of the team right now

They can explain away dumping guys like Jones, Old man I mean Every Day Eddie and probably even guys like Byrd, Hank (although last night would hurt that case) and Padilla but there would be a mutiny if they traded their All Star Ace.

I've won the same lifetime achievement award twice....yes I'm the Most Interesting Man in the World

by Bezekira on Jul 2, 2009 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

MY

would throw a fit if they traded either Hank or Byrd.

by bdavison94 on Jul 2, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

x

Seemed to me in MY’s post game interview that he was talking about Blalock in the past tense like he had already left the team.

by GregoryM on Jul 2, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

thought the same thing

I've won the same lifetime achievement award twice....yes I'm the Most Interesting Man in the World

by Bezekira on Jul 2, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

I thought

his comments were directed right at the Hank detractors.

by bdavison94 on Jul 2, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd be one

I would hate to see Millwood traded though it’s a valid point. I’ve enjoyed this season and would like to see what happens. The team would also have a collective meltdown most likely in losing such a mainstay in the lockerroom.

Lewis - http://texasrangersbb.blogspot.com/

by Lewis on Jul 2, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

You are presuming...

…that other teams aren’t aware of those things.

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 2, 2009 9:46 AM CDT reply actions  

I'm sure

there is at least one team that isn’t. Front offices have been upgraded significantly, but as long as Ed Wade is around …

"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers

by DJCahill on Jul 2, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wait

You mean other GMs read Fangraphs?

"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley

by trza on Jul 2, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe not

but you can bet your ass they have assistants that read that and have the same data. It’s getting harder and harder to sell high, more teams have this kind of data close to hand.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 2, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think he can still be decent for the remainder of his contract with good defense behind him

But yeah, there’s no way he’s pitched as well as his ERA indicates this year and if there was ever a chance to sell high on him it would be now.

It’s kind of a moot point though, because there’s also no way he’s getting traded as long as we have a shot at the division – heck, Nolan didn’t want to trade anyone at last year’s deadline, and we where what, 8-9 games out of first? Unless we’re talking about spares like Blalock, there’s no way we’re anything but buyers at this trade deadline, I don’t think.

Get on base or die, Salty.

"I don’t think we ever envisioned that anyone could shut this offense down to one hit" - Ron Washington

Hello Win Column

by LSJ on Jul 2, 2009 9:48 AM CDT reply actions  

Can't recall the details..

But wasn’t there some discussion around then that JD was ready to do his “flip vets for prospects” thing again, but Nolan didn’t want to run up the white flag?

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jul 2, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Millwood isn't going anywhere this season

Now this winter is a different story. Depending on the owners situation I could see us selling Millwood off this winter to rid ourselves of his salary for next season. It’ll suck but I can see it happening

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jul 2, 2009 10:07 AM CDT reply actions  

If rumors are to be believed

(always a very dicey proposition) and Hicks money problems are getting worse, I fear they would trade him and Padilla and anyone else making above the minimum just as a salary dump. If not, there is no way they trade him, IMO.

Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"

by randyd on Jul 2, 2009 10:08 AM CDT reply actions  

They wouldn't

Because the fans would riot.

Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert

by Conjunction on Jul 2, 2009 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

but they'd have to pay for a ticket to riot, right?

Hmmmm…sounds like a plan Hicks should look into.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 2, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

agree that it would be a

bad PR move, and that it won’t happen unless we totally tank before the deadline, but i think it would be a good idea to sell high. I bet we could get a good return for him.

by jcAustin on Jul 2, 2009 10:10 AM CDT reply actions  

Millwood

Really??? This is what cracks me up about this board. “Well, you can’t do it because it would be bad PR.” How about it would be bad baseball? The team is .5 games out of first and there is every possibility they can stay in the race for the long haul. Millwood is their best, most consistent starter and he has really benefited from the improved defense. Why would they trade him for more prospects? I understand dealing him if keeping him will bankrupt the team, but really? Trade Millwood when you are .5 games out 2 weeks before the ASB? C’mon.

by pblack on Jul 2, 2009 10:14 AM CDT reply actions   2 recs

Padilla is actually making a mil more than Millwood this year anyway

If we’re gonna try and trade somebody at the deadline to dump salary, it’ll be him.

Get on base or die, Salty.

"I don’t think we ever envisioned that anyone could shut this offense down to one hit" - Ron Washington

Hello Win Column

by LSJ on Jul 2, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

True

But up until last time out his performance had improved dramatically since we slid him through waivers as well. So you never know.

Get on base or die, Salty.

"I don’t think we ever envisioned that anyone could shut this offense down to one hit" - Ron Washington

Hello Win Column

by LSJ on Jul 2, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Got your point. It depends on how you look at

the offensive struggles. If May/June is an aberration, they can contend, if it’s the real offense then they won’t. It also depends on how you feel about Millwood’s future, especially next year. I’m betting this is his last strong year and he’ll be mediocre at best for the rest of his career.

by jcAustin on Jul 2, 2009 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

good point and I completely agree

One thing I’ll add is that we’re .5 game back of a team that we’re 5-1 against and how many remaining games do we have against the Angels? This team has a pretty decent chance of winning the division and that’s reason enough not to trade the ONLY consistently good starting pitcher.

I've won the same lifetime achievement award twice....yes I'm the Most Interesting Man in the World

by Bezekira on Jul 2, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

2010 IP

You know, if the Rangers were to trade Millwood, who would pitch all those innings? I don’t think you can expect Holland, Feliz, or any other young starter to fill that void. What would you get in return for Millwood? A young, MLB ready starter? Because that is what this team needs. In all likelihood, the Rangers should expect some guys in the low minors (I really don’t see the Rangers eating a lot of salary this season to procure a better prospect). Moreover, these young prospects would mostly likely slot behind any number of Rangers pitchers currently in the low minors. While it is prudent to stockpile quality pitching prospects, any of the potential pitching prospects in a Millwood trade could easily be replicated by the compensation draft picks for some of the departing free agents. Like PBlack said, this is just a bad baseball move; not only for this season, but for the next as well.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 2, 2009 10:40 AM CDT reply actions  

agree very much

i think milwood is very important to this team next year. padilla will be gone, which alleviates payroll concerns and gives opportunities to whichever youngster(s) might be healthy and ready (feliz, holland, mccarthy, kiker, hunter, harrison, etc.). but rookies and second year guys dont pitch 200 innings. and guys get hurt or fail to meet expectations. i’d much rather have our young talent brought into the big league rotation because they are pitching well and ready for the challenge instead of out of necessity because there are innings to fill and no one to fill them.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 2, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

If you're blown away, sure...

But anything short of something you absolutely cannot turn down, and it’ll be a nightmare with the whole “OMGZ THEY TRADED PITCHING!!!!!!” crap again…

by N41D on Jul 2, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions  

Is Millwood this good? No, But who cares?

The defense isn’t going away, so it’s likely that his ERA will outperform his FIP as long as he’s here, even with some regression. Keep him, for that, and because trading him would be a clubhouse disaster, and you really don’t want to try to replace that many innings on a club that hopes to win this year and next.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 2, 2009 10:52 AM CDT reply actions  

I should add

that article is nice, but it’s a hell of a lot more relevant to a fantasy owner than a real team.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 2, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

Excellent point

I would have liked to have seen him come out after the 6th last night considering he’s on short rest and he’s pitched so many innings this year. He’s been a workhorse. He’s also taken pressure off the bullpen which is another reason for the Rangers’ success this year.

Lewis - http://texasrangersbb.blogspot.com/

by Lewis on Jul 2, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Many Good Points

So many good points that I really have no answer to.

I wasn’t necessarily advocating that they trade him (or in response to Adam’s valid point, that any team wouldn’t also realize why his ERA is so low), I was just curious to see what everyone thought.

I understand that they wouldn’t be able to get that much for him, but the club seems to be in a bit of a financial pickle and if he is only doing such a good job because of the defense, maybe its time to plug someone else in that spot and let the defense work for them while we get what we can and enjoy the payroll relief this off season.

I also understand that there might be some PR concerns in the present, but I believe that its about competing long term, not just hanging on this year. By moving him now while his value is highest (hypothetically), the team will have more flexibility to help long term in addition to whatever they can get for him now.

I’m not totally sold that Ben Sheets will be healthy long term, but if he is, that’s one option that is available next year (and beyond), is probably cheaper than Millwood, and is able to help the team more long term.

Like I said, I really don’t know the answer to the question and I’m not advocating any of these moves, but the thought is certainly intriguing.

-Boneless

by Boneless on Jul 2, 2009 11:11 AM CDT reply actions  

I hope JD is smart enough

to pull the trigger on a smart deal even if it means they take a “PR” hit. And it should be noted that the idea of fans getting riled up because the team got value for a guy who everyone hated until this year is comical. Millwood has a good year about once every presidential term. There is a complete dearth of pitching on the market, so if the team has a chance to cash in AND reroute some money to LA guys, Purke and Scheppers, he should do it in a heartbeat.

Besides, I would put the odds of Scott Feldman having a better second half than Millwood at 50:50. We have a much improved defense, which means our starting pitching is more easily interchangeable. It’s the Billy Beane methodology.

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Jul 2, 2009 11:11 AM CDT reply actions  

he was at least decent that year

but people were still up in arms that we paid him “ace” money for league average numbers. I’m just saying that he’s not a fan favorite, he’s just a guy having a good year. I think the team could trade him without little Max and fans of his ilk getting too worked up.

GMs are smart, but there is still the perception (and, to a lesser degree, the reality) that Millwood is pitching more effectively this year. He is eating innings and keeping his team in games against good teams. He won’t have Sabathia value, but he would be wanted.

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Jul 2, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not sure Hicks is worried about winning at this point

as he is about trying to save his finanial ass.

Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"

by randyd on Jul 2, 2009 11:12 AM CDT reply actions  

Sounds to me like he's trying everything he can think of to keep involved with the team...

The chain of events from “selling a minority share” to “willing to consider selling a majority share” sounds a lot like a guy who knows this thing is about to pay off if he can just keep the wolves at bay.

I think the dude is in serious denial about what he’s going to have to do, and that can certainly lead to some stupid decisions.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jul 2, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

Another thing is...

…he can regress and still be the best pitcher on this team for the year. Sure, it’s helpful to have as a warning that his current ERA is probably unsustainable…but he’s a Texas Ranger pitcher with a 2.80 ERA. If he were league average (which is what his number seem to suggest) for the second half of the year, it would still be one of the best Rangers pitching seasons in a while.

by GhettoBear04 on Jul 2, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions  

let me throw this out there

what if the Mets offered Jon Niese and Jefry Marte for Millwood? Knowing that the money saved would give the team a much better chance at signing their top draft picks and FA targets, could you really say no?

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Jul 2, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions  

SO.......

what makes any of you think the Rangers give a flying duck about what the fans think?? If they don’t trade Millwood I would have to believe that it has more to do with teams not wanting his salary than anybody giving a crap about the fans?

by blueballlefty on Jul 2, 2009 12:23 PM CDT reply actions  

i'm assuming

this is a fantasy baseball thread.

el foldo

by SteveP on Jul 2, 2009 12:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Glad

someone else thinks this.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 2, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

No

Not Fantasy Baseball thread. I don’t play and don’t care to in the future.

Like I said, I wasn’t advocating trading him, I just thought it was an interesting discussion topic considering that some of his stats aren’t necessarily consistent w/ his ERA and he may regress soon.

I know that he’s important to the team right now, its just an interesting thought since he’s making so much, probably won’t be here after 2010, and could possibly be replaced by a cheaper and better pitcher.

-Boneless

by Boneless on Jul 2, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Replaced?

Nobody within the organization can replace him. Even Wonderboy is having his struggles.

The only way they trade Millwood is if the Rangers continue to play like shit and he continues to pitch well, and all the while the LaLaLa’s keep on winning. And even then you may want to see him back next year.

His ERA may regress some. I don’t give a shit. As long as he keeps doing what he’s doing he’s too valuable to them this year and next. He’s not doing it with smoke and mirrors. It’s not luck though there are some people who think so. The only reason you’d trade him would be if you’re willing to go with all youth in the rotation next year along with a Jason Jennings type or two. And if they are going to do that then they need to start as soon as possible, but I don’t think that’s what they want to do. It’s not what I want them to do.

by Black Francis on Jul 2, 2009 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

I just meant

that all of your points are more relevant to a fantasy owner than someone operating a real team.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 2, 2009 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

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