LSB Community Prospect Project: Mid-Season #17

You gotta go Poveda here I think

I don’t get the Boscan above Poveda part but its done so now we need to right the ship and get Poveda here.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jul 21, 2009 2:24 PM CDT reply actions

What makes you like Poveda more than Moscoso?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions

He heard

that Poveda doesn’t like Max Ramirez much is my guess.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 21, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

that change is supposed to be the best in the system. Poveda’s problem has been locating his average fast ball (so I’ve read), but if he ever figures that out, his ceiling is a lot higher than Mocoso, who will be a set-up guy at best.

That's why they call them business sox

by egriffey on Jul 21, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Moscoso

has a pretty nice assortment of 2ndaries as well

I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan

by FirebatM3 on Jul 21, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions

why do you think moscoso is a setup guy at best?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Call up Joaquin Arias? He had a legit spring training and seems to have cooled off a little bit in OKC but still a DH option. " -- kch tx

by knockoutking on Jul 21, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions

His stuff

He can’t get lefties out. He’s doing well in AAA at the moment, so I think he’s a trendy name in this discussion. But, that low-90s fastball and decent, not spectacular, secondary pitches won’t play well a second time through the order, IMO. That being said, he is still a great prospect, and I suspect he’d be a top 10 prospect in most systems. In the Ranger’s system, however, a guy that profiles as a set-up man or a 6th or 7th starter shouldn’t break the top 20.

I would personally put Hurley, Beltre, and obviously (because I voted for him) Poveda.

That's why they call them business sox

by egriffey on Jul 21, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions

no offense but how do you put hurley, a guy who hasnt pitched in how long

and ap layer who may or may not had a labrum tear on top of rotator cuff injuries above a player whose doing well in AAA and was the best pitcher in the minors last year at getting swings and misses?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Taking steroids is only gonna make him whiff on those sliders in the dirt with more fury." -thedirkatron

by knockoutking on Jul 22, 2009 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions

Groundball Rates

Poveda has converted from a strikeout/flyball pitcher into a pitch-to-contact/groundball pitcher. His GO/FO in AA is 1.42 and his GB%/FB% is 48%/34%. Like others, I am concerned about Poveda’s k-rate, but he ranks among the most effective pitchers in AA at the age of 22.

Moscoso’s flyball rates are scary. His GO/FO in 2009 is 0.65. HIs flyball rates the last two years have been above 50%. That is higher than even Eric Hurley, whose flyball rate in AA was 46%. I really like Moscoso’s K/BB and AAA ERA, but I am afraid of what is going to happen to him when he faces ML left-handers in Arlington.

by spurdynasty on Jul 21, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Hurley’s 46% flyball rate was in AAA, not AA. His minor league career flyball rate was 45%.

by spurdynasty on Jul 21, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions

why do GO/FO matter more than K/BB??

that just seems a really stupid way of ranking someone. Its of much more importance to have a good K/BB ratio than a good GO/FO ratio…

"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"

by blalock84 on Jul 21, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions

I disagree

The Ballpark cannot handle a pitcher who lives by the flyout. I’m not saying that K/BB doesn’t matter, but a guy with flyball tendencies is gonna get torched in Arlington.

Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador

by Parman on Jul 21, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions

I disagree.

I don’t think the ballpark is so ridiculously homer prone that a high strikeout/low walk pitcher is necassarily “gonna get torched” here simply because he’s a flyball pitcher.

Look, obviously you’d prefer groundballs to flyballs in every pitcher, but I don’t think it’s correct to say that not being a wormkiller is automatically a death knell.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions

exactly, i mean, Id like a groundball guy, but hell, if you wanna look at BABIP, grounballs are

more likely to be hits. We have a HR park, but its so blown out of proportion when we look and think about stuff like this its stupid. Rick Helling was the definition of a FB pitcher, yet he was fine. If you have a good K/BB ratio, the FB % isnt going to kill you.

To further that, Moscoso has given up all of 1 HR all season. Its nice

"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"

by blalock84 on Jul 21, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions

exactly, i mean

/Grubes

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jul 21, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions

The importance of GO/FO rates

Sorry to post and run like that. I honestly had no idea that the importance of GO/FO was controversial. In my opinion, it is the third most important pitching stat (after K/9 and BB/9)when evaluating prospects.

As is described here, high K flyball pitchers and low K groundball pitchers tend to have similar ERAs. The best pitchers have high K rates and high groundball rates while the worst pitchers have low K rates and high flyball rates.

The problem with Moscoso is that he appears unlikely to produce enough K’s to overcome his flyball tendencies. His career 9.2 K/9 IP was built by repeating levels and pitching against hitters who were his age or younger. Pitching in an age appropriate league this year, he is striking out X/9IP. Assuming he remains a starter in the majors, he is probably going to strike out approximately 6 hitters per 9 innings.

When you look at the current starters in the majors, 14 of the 141 pitchers who have tossed at least 50 innings in 2009 have GO/FO rates of 0.80 or less. There are some very good pitchers in that group who overcome their flyball tendencies by striking out more than 8 hitters per 9 IP (Santana, Weaver, Verlander). When you look at the flyball pitchers who K fewer than 7/9IP, the list becomes Uehara, Young, Hill, Baker, McCarthy, Bush, and Happ.

Moscoso has done about as much as one could expect this year to establish that his 2008 breakout was real. He has remained healthy and is doing a great job against AAA hitters. But his high flyball rate has him swimming upstream to become a major league starter.

by spurdynasty on Jul 21, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions

You're right, of course, but

that argument would mean more to me if I were debating Moscoso for 11 or 12th place in this vote. I still am underwhelmed by the competition here at 17th place. All have warts, choose your poison I suppose. I’m probably being a bit too kind to Moscoso, giving him the benefit of the doubt for all that missed time due to injuries.

Poveda should probably already be on, but once you get past the top 10 or 12 here the next group of ten guys are basically interchangeable depending on your preferences for ranking.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 21, 2009 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't you know that BB rate isn't nearly as important as hit rate in evaluating minor league pitching prospects?

/Big Old Steven

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions

But prospects have value as trade pieces, too

so even if you don’t like Moscoso in Arlington, there are lots of major league parks he’d potentially have more success in. I was a little less worried about Moscoso’s fly balls last year when he was striking out about 4 batters per inning it seemed. His K rate has been rising lately again, hopeful trend.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 21, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions

In other words

I don’t think you should not vote for Moscoso here simply because he’s not the ideal pitcher for this particular ballpark. Voting a guy the 17th best prospect even though he gets a lot of fly ball outs doesn’t seem dumb to me, since all the other guys I considered here have flaws as well.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 21, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I like Poveda more than Moscoso because of DOB.

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Jul 21, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions

That's a good reason

As I said above, I had basically a coin flip decision on this vote. I don’t think anyone here should be criticizing too severely any of several choices. (not saying anyone is)

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by t ball on Jul 21, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions

I like the way this man thinks.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jul 21, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions

This brings up a good point

Should we consider prospect in the context of “how well they would do in TBiA” or should we consider them in a neutral-park context? Obviously a strikeout pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls is great everywhere, but those with fly ball tendencies will suffer more than usual pitching in this environment.

On the flip side, should we also consider hitting prospects similarly – with preference to those who hit more fly balls (assuming consistent line drive % and HR rate) than those who hit ground balls?

by Telegraph on Jul 21, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions

I think neutral park context is better

And I also think it’s clear some are weighting Smoak a little more than they would normally b/c of the shitty OBP of the big club.

I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.

"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales

by Brian Thomas on Jul 21, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Probably age is the greatest thing

Ive admittedly been a huge Poveda fan for awhile now. However he has that changeup which is lethal and to me seems like a Scott Feldman starter kit. He dropped his walks from 4 per 9 to 3.3 per 9 in the move from Bakersfield to Frisco while allowing a smidge less hits so he actually allowed less baserunners overall. And as we argued a few polls ago if two guys allow the same amount of baserunners, give me the guy who walks more over the guy who gives up a bunch of hits.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jul 21, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Another nearly impossible vote

I went with Moscoso, I think he’s making progress and he’s stayed healthy. Poveda, Beltre, and Telis are probably my next 3 votes, with Hurley, Madrigal, Strop, Gomez, and Pimentel being guys who deserve to be in the conversation at least any time now.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 21, 2009 2:25 PM CDT reply actions

GiMo

by octoberty on Jul 21, 2009 2:26 PM CDT reply actions

Engel again for me.

Superstar ceiling.

BITA+, indeed.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 2:28 PM CDT reply actions

Is he injured

or has he been benched? I don;t think he has played the last few days.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY

by RangerMad on Jul 21, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions

like 8 games i think

by blueballlefty on Jul 21, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Hand = HBP

The Central Scrutinizer called him back to Surprise for some Rx-eval.

Rangers Farm Probables

by shroomer on Jul 21, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions

thanks

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY

by RangerMad on Jul 21, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions

likewise

I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan

by FirebatM3 on Jul 21, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions

One thing that helped me not give up on Beltre

Adam’s invocation of this guy the other day:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/Players/S/Sammy-Sosa.shtml

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Jul 21, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions

But that guy started doing steriods

by octoberty on Jul 21, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions

He also learned to hit.

A terrible player with no idea how to hit an off speed pitch is what he is.

Taking steroids is only gonna make him whiff on those sliders in the dirt with more fury.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Indeed

by octoberty on Jul 21, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions

i think i found a new signature

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Call up Joaquin Arias? He had a legit spring training and seems to have cooled off a little bit in OKC but still a DH option. " -- kch tx

by knockoutking on Jul 21, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

winner.

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Taking steroids is only gonna make him (Engel Beltre) whiff on those sliders in the dirt with more fury." -thedirkatron

by knockoutking on Jul 21, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Errr... that wasn't directed toward Engel Beltre at all.

It was more directed at this idea some people have that Sosa didn’t leanr how to hit or improve his baseball skills at all, he just one day started taking steroids and became super unstoppably awesome at baseball.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions

fixed

still made me LOL

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Taking steroids is only gonna make him whiff on those sliders in the dirt with more fury." -thedirkatron

by knockoutking on Jul 21, 2009 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Im excited i finally got a good signature for myself ha

You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…

I think you should seek counselling.

(AJM to Josey Donuts)

by Michael Cave on Jul 21, 2009 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions

OMG, link me to that!

lol, I’ve been too busy the last few days if I missed that.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jul 21, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions

In other words, the 'him' isn't Engel Beltre, it's a fictional terrible baseball player. I don't think Engel is terrible.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions

+1 on beltre

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Call up Joaquin Arias? He had a legit spring training and seems to have cooled off a little bit in OKC but still a DH option. " -- kch tx

by knockoutking on Jul 21, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Moscoso

After the show I want Greg Oden to tuck us both in and tell us stories about the old days. - Will Ferrell

by JukeboxJoe on Jul 21, 2009 2:29 PM CDT reply actions

+1

The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...

by Kinslerhomer on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions

it was close but i stuck with Engel over him

by blueballlefty on Jul 21, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't know...

what to do with myself. I’ve voted for either Main or Boscan for the last 13 rounds or so.

Went with Poveda here. Next group will probably include Beltre, Madrigal, Hurley and Moscoso. Not sure in what order yet though.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM CDT reply actions

Tim Smith

The man comes to hit, all business.

None of this Beltre I do everything good except for the actual game of baseball bullshit.

by SaltyGoesYard on Jul 21, 2009 2:34 PM CDT reply actions

I think its too

early to have had hurley fall off the map. Our # 1 pitching prospect last year cant make the top 15? It would kind of be like Holland having surgery during off-season and not making the list next year.

by corbsclinton on Jul 21, 2009 2:50 PM CDT reply actions

Depending on the surgey that could happen to anyone.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Beltre is posting

crappy #’s every year, when does he drop off list?

by corbsclinton on Jul 21, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions

He's in A ball

Stats are important, but far, far from the only things to consider with a guy that young and that far away. The list of guys with great stats in A ball is pretty long, as is the list of guys with horrible lines that went on to become major leaguers and even stars.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 21, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions

~6 months younger than ross

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Taking steroids is only gonna make him (Engel Beltre) whiff on those sliders in the dirt with more fury." -thedirkatron

by knockoutking on Jul 21, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions

Agree

I voted Engel Beltre. To answer corbsclinton’s question, let’s say he repeats Hi A next yr (I think he will by the way) and then repeats AA AND AAA before he breaks in. He is still only 24 at the time. I know this may not seem like much but his walk rate has improved. He is hitting better against lefties and his k rate has stayed roughly the same. I know it is picky but there some brightspots. Now if he fails at Hi A next yr then it starts getting a little scary.

by Michael Cave on Jul 21, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions

It's easy to get seduced by tools

and he’s got them out the ying-yang

That's why they call them business sox

by egriffey on Jul 21, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions

if holland had surgery

for something that could range from a torn rotator cuff to a huge labrum problem he would drop way down the list

anyway, holland is better in every facet of the game than hurley…except that hurley has the good face.

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Taking steroids is only gonna make him (Engel Beltre) whiff on those sliders in the dirt with more fury." -thedirkatron

by knockoutking on Jul 21, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions

'Good Face' Hurley

sounds like a bandit

"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"

by blalock84 on Jul 21, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Just to get a guage

I know he’s out for the year, but I was wondering where you guys think Eric Hurley would fit in?

'Howard makes me fear the NKoreans less... If they shot anything at us, he’d be there to block it." - Aquaman56

"Also Ian’s season is following the same pattern as Ricky Martins Career. Both needed another hit, bad." - SaltyGoesYard

by MayurP on Jul 21, 2009 3:36 PM CDT reply actions

sorry. should've been a reply up there

'Howard makes me fear the NKoreans less... If they shot anything at us, he’d be there to block it." - Aquaman56

"Also Ian’s season is following the same pattern as Ricky Martins Career. Both needed another hit, bad." - SaltyGoesYard

by MayurP on Jul 21, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Hurley again for me

Vote for Hurley even if its only to make KoK mad

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jul 21, 2009 4:07 PM CDT reply actions

haha

i just dont understand voting for him right now b/c no one is sure what injuryt he had (unless ive missed something) — a labrum tear would mean he should 100% without a doubt not be in our top 10 to me

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
"Taking steroids is only gonna make him whiff on those sliders in the dirt with more fury." -thedirkatron

by knockoutking on Jul 22, 2009 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Wow. Beltre's running away with this shit.

Didn’t see that coming.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?

by thedirkatron on Jul 21, 2009 8:11 PM CDT reply actions

Seems like all of Hurley's votes from 16 are going to the Guillermo now

And Engel is picking up a lot of the ’Fredo contingency

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Jul 21, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Consitutency

Vocabulary fail.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Jul 21, 2009 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions

12 of the top 16 are pitchers

And I’m guessing 15 of the top 20 will be pitchers.

That’s pretty impressive, for a system that’s this strong. Also shows why I don’t think you can afford to deal Smoak, even in a Halladay deal, and why it’s quite possible we’ll end up trading pitching for hitting at some point.

Of course, Hunter may not even be rookie eligible by the time this list is finished, the way he’s pitching right now….

by Darrell McKown on Jul 21, 2009 11:16 PM CDT reply actions