Rangers-Nats trade: Wouldja?
Poveda/Moreland (Moscoso) for Willingham (Clippard): Wouldja??
===================
Run down a list of the Rangers’ most effective young (i.e., controllable) big league pitchers in 2009:
Scott Feldman, Frankie Francisco, C.J. Wilson, Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter, Doug Mathis.
Francisco, according to Baseball America, was Boston’s number 10 prospect in 2002, two years and two organizations before he’d reach the big leagues. He wasn’t among the White Sox’s top 10 prospects in 2003, not among the Rangers’ top 10 in 2004.
Wilson was the Rangers’ number eight prospect in 2003, two years and a Tommy John surgery before he got to Arlington.
Feldman, Hunter, and Mathis were never on a Rangers Top 10 list.
O’Day was never on a Top 10 list with the Angels, who left him exposed to the Rule 5 Draft, or with the Mets, who were smart enough to select him in the draft but foolish enough to float him out on waivers after four early April appearances, three of which were scoreless and one of which saw him allow two unearned runs.
Brandon McCarthy was once high up on Chicago’s Top 10. Matt Harrison was high up on Atlanta’s. Josh Rupe landed on the Rangers’ Top 10 in two of his first three years in the system.
Texas is in the hunt but got only 11 starts this year out of McCarthy (4.92 ERA) and may get no more this year. The club got only 11 from Harrison (6.11 ERA) and, we learned yesterday, won’t get any more. The 4.2 innings that Rupe (15.43) pitched in April cost him his 40-man roster spot and his place in the plans.
The best pitching prospects aren’t always the most dependable big leaguers. Some will be slowed by injuries. Some won’t get major league hitters out. Many will contribute, but not always as much as a number of pitchers who were less hyped as minor leaguers.
It’s one reason you can’t hesitate to trade prospects just because you’re building something strong.
Now, you don’t trade Derek Holland for Kevin Correia and Eulogio De La Cruz, which is what the Mets did five years ago when they shipped Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato.
There’s a fan/media mindset that this isn’t the year to push all the chips in at the trade deadline. OK: No C.C. Sabathia rentals. I’m with you there.
But does that mean you say to yourself, “I have the deepest farm system in baseball, and building from within is the name of the game. I can’t afford to move any prospects even though I have a shot to win this year”?
St. Louis virtually emptied its farm system by trading Brett Wallace in today’s Matt Holliday deal. Texas would have to make five blockbuster trades in the next six days to empty its system.
Wallace may not pan out to be any better than Daric Barton, the last young slugger that the Cardinals sent to the A’s as part of a huge deal. Then again, Oakland wouldn’t undo that 2004 trade, which sent Mark Mulder to St. Louis, because it also netted them Dan Haren.
And Arizona would never take back the 2007 trade that sent four of its top six prospects, including Brett Anderson, to the A’s to get Haren.
The key for the Diamondbacks was that they were getting a controllable young player in Haren, not a rental. It would take that huge a package for Texas to get Roy Halladay, and I’m resigned to the likely fact that even if the offer was enough for Toronto, Halladay wouldn’t agree to come here. But I’m all for striking in the next week, for a player not as singular as Halladay, as long as he’s controllable.
It’s why I proposed a Zack Greinke trade a year ago that would have included Harrison or Eric Hurley plus four others, and one this spring that involved Harrison and Justin Smoak for Josh Johnson or Matt Cain.
Bill Ladson of MLB.com reports that Texas has been scouting the Nationals, and whether that means we’re looking at John Lannan or Josh Willingham or Adam Dunn, I’m encouraged.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports notes that Texas is among at least four teams interested in St. Louis’s Troy Glaus, who is rehabbing now on the farm after shoulder surgery. (If we do deal for him, I’ll trade a Bound Edition for the first photo of Glaus posing with Jason Grilli.) Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi add that left-handed relievers Scott Downs (Toronto) and George Sherrill (Baltimore) are on the Rangers’ radar.
Cliff Lee? Gotta be careful there, considering how poorly he’s pitched in Rangers Ballpark over his career. (Though, unlike Halladay, his trouble with Texas extends to his home park as well, so maybe in his case it really is the opponent and not the park.) I’m interested, but not if Holland or Smoak or Neftali Feliz or Martin Perez is involved.
Zach Duke or Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang or Doug Davis? Not for anything close to that top tier.
Correia? For a reasonable return, sure.
He’s sort of a good example of all this, actually. As he was coming up in the Giants system early this decade, he was on a clear second tier in that system, well behind Cain, Merkin Valdez, and David Aardsma. Cain developed into what he was supposed to. Valdez is 27 and hasn’t come close to fulfilling his promise. Aardsma has come into his own this year, but has been traded four times in the last four years, the last two times for minor leaguers you’ve never heard of and probably never will.
Meanwhile, Correia has carved out his own useful little place in this game, and could be traded this coming week as San Diego tries to further its own rebuilding effort. It won’t take Holland and Smoak to get him. It won’t take Holland or Smoak to get him.
There are players like Correia (under control through 2010) and Willingham (under control through 2011) who could make this club better right now, without costing Holland or Smoak or Feliz or Perez. This organization can afford to move some of its better prospects without killing its system, maybe managing to improve its chances to stay in this fight in 2009. What if the Angels land Halladay and don’t have to give up Jered Weaver to do so? Will you feel as good about 2010 as you do about this season?
I’m OK trading pitchers like Kasey Kiker or Omar Poveda or Guillermo Moscoso or Blake Beavan or Wilfredo Boscan in the right deal, to get someone established and controllable. That doesn’t mean I don’t think those guys will make it in the big leagues. They may, they may not. But they won’t all make it (and if miraculously they all do, there won’t be room for all of them in Texas), and if you don’t take chances by moving some of them for players that you know can help, you’re going to end up holding onto a number of them past the point at which they have any value to you at all, either as big league players or trade chips.
Kiker (4-0, 1.22 in his last six starts) and Poveda (2-0, 2.39 in his last four) in particular have gotten hot at the right time. The two 21-year-olds are pitching well in AA, the level at which rebuilding teams generally start to zero in on prospects as trade targets. Moscoso is 3-2, 1.85 in six starts and a long relief appearance for Oklahoma.
Would you trade Poveda and Mitch Moreland for Willingham? Would you expand it to include Moscoso for right-handed reliever Tyler Clippard?
I sure would (not that I’m sure the Nationals would), but I get the sense that a lot of the opinion-makers in this market have decided that trading prospects for veterans would be an unwelcome departure from the Plan -- no matter who the prospects are, or the veterans -- and the minute a trade like that one goes down, you’ll see columnists comparing Poveda to John Danks, Moreland to Adrian Gonzalez, Moscoso to Armando Galarraga, Willingham to Randy Velarde, and Clippard to Kevin Gryboski.
How did you feel when Texas traded Ricardo Rodriguez for Vicente Padilla?
It’s going to be a fascinating week. The end of July always is.
We all believe that as good as this season has been, better days for this franchise are ahead. But if you’re one of those who’s been convinced that trading prospects for veterans in the next six days would be foolish, by definition, I’d encourage you to stay away from the generalizations that you’re being fed and keep an open mind. Don’t let it kill your optimism, and don’t get brainwashed into thinking that such a trade would automatically kill any sort of franchise momentum.
Instead, it could mobilize an additional, more immediate, very welcome type of momentum.
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Yes
you do that trade without looking back but you’re going to need to make another move to clear up an already crowded OF. Capitalize on Cruz’s value and deal him for pitching, perhaps the Giants?
How the hell is Washington this bad if they have Dunn, NJohnson and Willingham rocking those obp’s on team that also features Ryan Zimmerman?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
They are dead last in defensive efficiency
That has a lot to do with it.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
But 28-68?!?!?
They’re going to lose close to 110 games this year.
That’s the inner circle of historical suck, especially for a non-expansion team.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
They've been a tad unlucky as well.
They’re run differential is shitty, but it’s not as epically shitty as they’re record.
SD actually has a worse run diff this season.
And, yah, Washington’s defense has been comically bad.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Of course I'd do that deal.
Anytime you’re in the middle of a pennant race and can snag a productive hitter with two more years of team control who fills a real need for you (Patient RH power) for a few C+ prospects, you make that deal.
I still think Glaus is a much more likely target for us. We match up very well with the Cards and I’m not sure how many other teams out there are gonna be interested in a DH-only RHH right now. If we could take back enough contract to make the salary relief worth STL’s time, we could probably get away with not giving them too much in terms of prospects, which would be nice.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
Glaus hasn't played yet this year
and shoulder injuries (that’s what has him out, correct?) are very tough to recover plus his numbers were built on the PED foundation. He may say he’s almost ready but I don’t want him.
The player I want is Nick Johnson.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Any of
Johnson, Glaus, or Willingham would be an upgrade—it’s all just a matter of price.
I’d do Jamey’s deal in a heartbeat.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
He's playing in the minors right now and the shoulder is fine for hitting, he just can't throw across the diamond from third- and may never be able to again.
Seeing as how they have Pujols rather entrenched at 1b and no DH cause they play in the r-tard league, he’s as useless as a fine naked woman in Brian Thomas’ bedroom (“What’s this? Where are all the dudes?” he was heard to remark.)
Of course he’s no sure thing with the shoulder (He says he’s pain free swinging, but, who knows) and he does have a full no-trade.
But assuming we’re confident the shoulder can hold up to DH’ing for a few months I think he’s a pretty good pickup for us. Patient RHH power. Yay.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
I have to hope (vomit blood) that Glaus's shoulder is fine
and that he can regain form of previous years. Hope, as Billy Beane & Sara Palin have told us, is not a strategy.
I know Willingham and NJohnson are getting on base and productive players this year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
They'll also cost you more.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
At this point
Moreland hopes he has Willingham’s career. When you’re in it like they are now, you gotta make that deal.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jul 25, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Yup.
Although I agree with dirkatron about Glaus.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't have a problem moving Moreland.
You nailed it: He hopes to be the player Willingham is right now.
WIllingham is a really damn fine hitter and exactly what this team needs.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Jamey
Is the money still owed to Willingham (~$1.2M) not going to be a problem? I was under the impression that they couldn’t take any salary on…
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
Where was the money that they were going to sign Sheets
coming from?
The money is there.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
i really think that money
was available in the off season but not now because Hicks’ financial situation has become rather untenable
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 25, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions
MLB
wants the Rangers to be very competitive the rest of the year so their value increases so they should have no problems tapping into their line of credit.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
I dont
think 1.2 mil for the rest of the yr should be a problem even without their LOC as you say. Ill say right now that if Willingham is on the table for that deal, you have to find a way to do it. Willingham has crushed lefties this yr but hasnt exactly failed against righties. Pretty even OPS splits throughout his career.
If we do trade for Willingham he needs to be our everyday DH. This deal makes a lot sense after further diving into Willingham’s numbers
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 25, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
One gets the feeling things have changed dramatically since then
Hicks defaulted on the loan. They had company-wide layoffs. And the general media chatter suggests the pot of gold has dried up.
I hate to agree with Josey Donuts, but I really don't think the team is gonna balk at a deal that good cause of 1.2mm.
I mean, I really can’t imagine that.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions
Money
The money I’m worried about here is what he might get next season. And what position does he play next year? The outfield is already manned by guys who are better defenders and next season you are looking at a possibly 1b/dh of smoak and davis.
I just dont see a fit here past this season and I’d rather not give up guys like poveda and moscoso for 1 yr of a 30yr old positing career high numbers.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
I'm really not that worried about next year
if we have too many players and not enough positions.
Next year will take care of itself and it’s 50-50 this team has a 53-41 (or better) record after 94 games in 2010.
Planned for or not, we’re in a pennant race this year with two roads (AL West & Wild Card) open.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 25, 2009 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
wrong.
the wild card is coming out of the AL East. to think otherwise is silly. i know the “they beat upon each other arguement” and all. but if TOR deals halliday and BAL doesn’t do anything the bottom half of that division is much weaker than ours.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Jul 25, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd say it's 95%.
I think they’re the best three teams in all of baseball so it’s very likely one of ‘em will be the WC, but we’re surprisingly close right now.
And, yah, they do all beat up on eachother, which is nice.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Well to be
fair he is having a career yr, you are right however he has posted an OPS+ at 115 or above in each of his last 3 years. I dont think this guy is a flash in the pan.
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 25, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Didnt mean it like that
Just saying, you’re buying the guy at his career high
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
gotcha
and we could be selling on moreland at his absolute highest. Im sure that the Rangers and JD are pursuing Willingham, like you, i just hope the price is right
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 25, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
If Willingham continues to hit and is a good fit this year, it makes it a lot easier
to give Davis/Smoak another year in the minors or put one in a package to fill another need.
Never argue with a fool. Onlookers might not be able to tell you apart.
I don't think
Either needs another year in the minors.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Smoak could use at least a few weeks in the minors at the start of next season, if you gnome sayin'.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Sure
A few weeks, but if he weren’t up by May/June, something terrible must have happened.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
The real question is, if we get a Glaus or a Willingham... I mean, we have to cut Andruw, right?
You can’t carry two RHH DH’s on the same club.
Are the Rangers willing to do that at this point?
Would Wash cry?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Andruw would be gone
Cut or traded for a Hamburger-type, I’d guess.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the real question is
If this ballclub’s not willing to cut Andruw for an upgrade, what the fuck are they doing?
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
How big an upgrade do you think Willingham is over Jones the rest of the way?
250 PAs the rest of the way for them, if they play every day.
Willingham has a 40 point edge in wOBA over Jones.
That’s about 8 runs the rest of the way — less than a win.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Considering Willingham fills two of our big needs - OBP and hitting leftties (neither of which Jones does)
I think he’s a pretty sizeable upgrade over Jones.
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
I have no idea.
I’m just saying, he fills needs. That’s what we need to do if we’re really contending this year, is fill needs. Of course, if you’d just rather keep our cards close and stand pat then thats fine too, I get that – but if you’re not willing to trade a couple realatively insignificant prospects for Willingham, then you shouldn’t even be thinking about trading more significant ones for rental pitchers.
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
Fill needs
You are 3 1/2 games back. Willingham fills a need, but isn’t likely to do much to make the team so much better the rest of the way that he’s going to make a difference in a playoff push.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
We could use those 8 runs
And that is also assuming that Jones doesn’t play much worse from here on out.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It is also assuming Willingham doesn't play much worse from here on out
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
You sound
Like you’re part of the standing-pat-and-pissing-ourselves crowd.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Meh
If it is Poveda and Moreland for Willingham and Clippard, that’s fine. I don’t think it gets the Rangers to the playoffs, but they can do the “hey, we tried” thing, and maybe someone will give you something for Willingham this offseason so you don’t have to just non-tender him and get nothing for him.
I just don’t see that Willingham does that much for you. He probably plays against LHPs and gives you a bench bat. I think the idea he’s going to come in and be the every day DH and make a big difference to the offense is misguided. You’re trading for a guy who will probably start 30 games at DH for you the rest of the way, and that you’ll cut loose after the season.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Why only 30 games?
The guy kills lefties and does well against righties while being great this season against everyone. I don’t get why he wouldn’t be playing everyday in the final 2 months. And given this team’s biggest need is a slight offensive boost, adding a solid bat like Willingham could easily be the difference maker in the division. Even if you’re only gaining a few runs from adding him, that could be all we need to take the division.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Well
I’m assuming he’s coming in to start primarily against lefties.
He’s not likely to supplant any of the guys starting regularly now against RHPs, I don’t think.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Who do you think Washington sits...
…to let Willingham play against RHPs?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I doubt it
He’d be the most likely candidate, but I have my doubts Washington is going to sit him the majority of the time against RHPs.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
If they traded
Something substantive to get Willingham, I can’t fathom that he would only play against lefties.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
We’re now following a circular line of thought.
I don’t think Willingham is someone they’re going to give up something of significant value for because they’d be playing him primarily as a platoon DH.
Your argument is that they gave up something of significant value for him, obviously, he’s going to play every day.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Completely unrelated
But is the Law Review 2L student note as hellish as it sounds when combined with classes?
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
The biggest waste of time...
…in my law school career was Law Review.
And writing my law review paper was a huge time suck.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Its tough to picture that
Willingham is on fire right now and has a .415 wOBA on the season. Assuming that Davis stays in the minors while Blalock still has everyday 1B duties, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be playing everyday at DH.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Is there anybody
You think can make a difference?
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
This might be a little over the top
Is it possible to acquire Cain for Davis, Cruz, and others? What type of deal would it take?
What would it take to get Willingham and Dunn?
The rest of this year can play out as
C – Salty/Tea
1B-Blalock
2B-Kinsler
3B-Young
SS-Elvis
LF-Willingham
CF-Hamilton/Byrd
RF-Murphy/Hamilton
DH-Dunn
Next year we can make Borbon full-time CF and move Hamilton to RF permanently so Murphy and Byrd would be on the bench. Smoak would take over 1B as we let Blalock go in FA.
Cain is only 24 and is having an excellent year. I still think a starting point of Davis and Cruz doesn’t even come close to getting a deal done. I have no idea what it would take to get him.
I am not opposed to dealing Nelson Cruz.
Older than Blalock, doesn’t hit leftys, we have a crowded OF, came to the party late (which means his decline may come early) and he should have fairly high value right now.
If we could get NJohnson here (Bascik said the Nats aren’t getting big offers for him so his price may be lower than expected) and then turn to the Giants and send them Cruz for Cain (nobody else, Cain for Cruz, straight up), the Rangers would appear to be in very good shape for the stretch run and perhaps (gulp) beyond.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 25, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Huh?
You really think SF would do that?
And Cruz has way more success against lefties than Blalock.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
No way that deal would happen
Davis and Cruz is still not enough for Cain. You still have to add other pieces to the trade but that’s the part that I’m having trouble figuring out.
Cruz vs. Lefties.
It’s 83 AB’s, dude.
He’s hit lefties about the same as righties throughout his minor league career and through most of his major league career up until this year’s 83 AB’s. 1.050 OPS vs. LHP last year in OKC.
Can you stop fucking spreading that spurious bullshit that he can’t hit lefties?
This is why people hate you.
You get some idea in your head and you ignore all logic surrounding it and just keep braying and braying until we all collectively pray you fall down a flight of stairs and lose three of your permanent teeth.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
x
Can you stop fucking spreading that spurious bullshit that he can’t hit lefties?
No.
Daniels traded Cruz.
Josey has been saying for three years that Daniels came home with a stinky diaper with the Carlos Lee trade.
If Cruz has some value, some utility, well, that doesn’t fit with what he’s been saying for three years.
So even though Cruz has probably been the best player on the team this year, it is necessary to minimize his contributions and suggest that he still really isn’t good.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
This post made me giggle
I think it was the stinky diaper part.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions
+1
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
"Spurious bullshit that he can't hit lefties?"
Nelson Cruz has 291 plate appearances in The Show v leftys and has a career .238 average, .306 obp, .414 slug% and a .720 OPS.
Cruz hit lefties last year (.419 in 31 plate appearances) but his averages in the other three years in The Show were .217 & .212 and he’s back to .217 in 2009.
Nelson Cruz can’t hit lefties in The Show.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 25, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
OMG, I remembered why I don't talk to you.
YOu’re a fucking idiot who makes up his mind and then just brays and brays without ever listening to logic or considering you might possibly be wrong.
This was my fault for engaging you.
Apologies.
I hope you die.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
So
despite the fact that Nelson Cruz has proved beyond all reasonable doubt that he can’t hit LHs as well as he hits RHs in The Show, we get this rant.
291 plate appearances and if you take away the 31 ab’s he had last year v LH’s (when he was hitting everything), his career average against them in The Show in 260 plate appearances is at .215.
Nelson Cruz cannot hit LHs in The Show.
Per me dying, it’s gonna happen.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 25, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Cruz's 300 PAs are conclusive...
Hank F Blalock’s 1000 PAs are not…
Get it? Good.
Hank F Blalock hit well
against LH’s in both 2007 & 2008 (with 150 or so plate appearances) while Cruz has one tiny time in his life (31 plate appearances at the end of a season) where he did well.
Dirkatron and his kind may call it “spurious bullshit” but they can’t prove that Cruz is better v RH’s than LH’s.
Give me something a little more difficult, this is a slam-dunk.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 25, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
So...
About 150 ABs over the course of two years with an OPS in the mid-.800s override the other 800 ABs in his career with an OPS comfortably below .700?
Even when we consider the fact he’s rocking lefties to the tune of a .620 OPS this year?
I believe this argument flew for Davis, let’s see how it works for Hank…
Apparently something didn’t carry over from the last two years, Josey…
The question about "spurious bullshit"
concerns Nelson Cruz.
The Great Hank Blalock War of June 2009 has been fought and won so move forward.
This is Jamey’s thread so I’ll stand down until I hear somebody tell me when Nelson Cruz hit LH’s in The Show but I do wanna say one thing to Newberg…
Your boy JD is on stage this week. There’s nowhere to hide and no acceptable excuses not to attempt to fix this team. Also, there are no medals for trying. You either fix the team or you don’t.
Let’s hope your hype of JD for all these years finally comes to fruition.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 25, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
x
The Great Hank Blalock War of June 2009 has been fought and won so move forward.
You lost.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
There are also still people who think the South won
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I wouldn't count Josey out of belonging to that group either.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well now, you can't possibly suggest Josey is racist
Didn’t you know, he’s got black friends.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
and owns a colored
TV
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 25, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
As is your boy Nolan Ryan....
…because JD can’t do anything without his approval
Never argue with a fool. Onlookers might not be able to tell you apart.
Well
JD better bring an awfully good trade to Nolan for him to approve.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 25, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
What if he brings a good one and Nolan vetoes it?
You and I will never know what goes down in there, so just stop acting like you do.
Never argue with a fool. Onlookers might not be able to tell you apart.
It's running into a brick wall
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
JD is my boy?
Don’t believe I’ve ever taken a stance on JD one way or the other…
And ‘spurious bullshit’ does concern Nelson Cruz. But it also concerns the ass backwards logic you pick and choose to apply to certain players as it fits your agenda…
And the Hank Blalock War is far from over… As suggested by the .620 OPS against lefties this year and sub-.500 OPS post-ASB…
There's a flaw (or seven) in your reasoning vis-avis the deadline
You say JD can’t do anything without Nolan rubber-stamping it.
Then you say JD’s tenure rests on making a gee-wowzers trade that puts this team into the Red Sox-Rays-Yanks stratosphere of for-sure contenders.
Yet, if this trading deadline defines this management regime, and Nolan is the GW-like Decider in the front office, doesn’t this deadline define Nolan, rather than Daniels?
I mean, for all we know Daniels has a Brian Corey for Victor Martinez deal ready to sign, and Nolan’s like ‘Awww hayl no, we keepin’ that Bry-ann Ko-Ree.’
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
More ass backwards logic...
If JD doesn’t make a trade, it’s because he didn’t have the cajones to get it done…
If he does make a trade, it’s because Nolan Ryan stamped it with his seal of approval…
Yet again, another can’t win situation for Boy Wonder…
It's a fun part of the schtick
Of course, Josey will probably either:
A: reply with;
Keynes-
Don’t you agree that trading Danks was a terrible decision? Danks puts up an average Game Score of eleventy-point-four in the Show in the Great Game Donuts Bill James Testicles Scat joke.
or
B: Not reply at all.
I like the Josey game. You have to be on your toes. He also gives you points you can go multiple ways to refute (and he knows that). It’s like chess.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
I remember reading about sham healers
Basically, anyone who goes to one of those con men who supposedly reaches into you and pulls out the cancer or whatever, is going to have one of three things happen to them:
1. They get better. See, the healer worked!
2. Nothing changes. See, the healer was able to arrest the progression of the disease
3. They get worse. Gee, it was just too late for anything to be done by the time the patient came to the healer.
That’s sort of like Josey with Nolan and Daniels.
If the team does well, it is because Nolan came in and took control.
If the team stays the same, well, thank goodness Nolan is keeping Daniels from screwing up the team any more.
If the team gets worse, well, of course it is, because Daniels did so much damage before Nolan got here.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Adam
I don’t think Nolan had much to do with the construction of the roster (in terms of naming personnel) but he did make sweeping changes in this organization’s approach to pitching and defense.
How can you deny his influence in these areas and are the quantum levels of improvement and implement of change all one big coincidence?
Per the every day line-up and offense – that’s JD’s baby all the way and it is his responsibility to fix it. You know it and I know it so stop protecting him. If it’s not JD’s baby, he really isn’t anything more than a messenger boy who fetches the mail and makes copies.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
by Josey Wales on Jul 26, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I've had the same thought recently
Would Cruz, Davis, Beavan, Kiker get it done?
I’m also coming around on the idea of using Feliz as a chip if the org is really starting to think he’ll be a reliever.
by Sherman McCoy on Jul 25, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
No Feliz trades.
He’s a starter and he’s going to be a really damn good one.
Think: Ubaldo Jiminez with a chance to maybe even be a bit better.
And, for those who don’t knhow, U-Jim is really fucking good.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions
good comparison
it may take Feliz a year or half a year of starting in the majors, but i could see him being that type of pitcher in 2011… That would be awesome.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Agree
Hey, dirkatron, we can agree on somethings. Ubaldo is really good. I wouldn’t mind seeing him in Arlington.
by peachygbc_1 on Jul 25, 2009 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Why would you do that?
Cruz, Davis, Beavan, and Kiker for Cain?
He’s a LAIE. That’s insane.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
He's better than a LAIE.
He’s had a FIP under 4 each of his first four years in the bigs, and is still young enough with good enough stuff to possibly get better.
You’d be buying high on a guy right before he gets expensive, though.
I don’t think I’d be willing to pay out a huge package for him, but, he’s better than a LAIE.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
SF is already talking
how they can’t afford Cain, Lincecum, and Zito in the rotation. They also have a bunch of prospects coming up that can fill the rotation spots. Even though Cain is having a great year, I can see SF trading him to fill the offensive holes.
I think they will, most likely in the off season, but perhaps now.
He’s about to get real expensive in arb and they need bats, bats and more bats.
A deal centered Smoak and some filler could make a lot of sense for both sides if the Gigantes felt Smoak was ready for the bigs right now, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
What's also impressive is that
Cain’s home/away splits are almost identical.
He's had a FIP under 4...
…pitching in the N.L. in a pitcher’s park.
He’s under team control for only two years after this one.
He’s a fly ball pitcher.
Yeah, he’s probably better than a LAIE, but he’s not really a TORP, either. Something in between.
That’s way too much to give up for Cain.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Cain
Totally agree. Never got the fuss over trading for cain.
As a flyball pitcher with a fip that high i’d hate to see him in arlington.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
I suppose it depends on what you thought you were getting.
He’s got a good arm and has been remarkably consistent performance-wise thoughtout his career. A don’t know a 3.8 FIP is high. He’s still really young (26 all next season).
But some seem to view him as an ace, which he isn’t.
He’s a 2/3.
I think the big things with him are expense as he hits his last two years of arb, how FB tendencies would play with the move to a more hitter-friendly park in a more hitter-friendly league, and how amenable he’d be an extension here if things go reasonably well.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
He's under contract for 2010...
…with a team option for 2011, then he’s a f.a.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Wartless players
Generally don’t get traded.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh, didn't see that.
Then he’s much more attractive then I thought.
10:$4.25M, 11:$6.25M club option
Those numbers are absolute bargains.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
People talk about trading for Halladay
Why not trade for Cain who has been one of the most consistent pitchers in his 5 year career. He never had an ERA+ lower than 108 and that was his rookie year.
Halladay’s ERA+ last 3 years
2007 – 120
2008 – 154
2009 – 154
Cain’s
2007 – 122
2008 – 116
2009 – 189
Halladay has been an amazing player but Cain’s #‘s are not that far off. I also think Cain would be a lot cheaper to acquire than Halladay. Cain also has a bright future ahead of him too because he’s not even 25 yet.
I would trade for Cain and then extend his contract.
He has been one of the most consistent guys in the majors.
I can’t stress enough saying that he also has the same road/home splits which is very important.
His ERA+ this year
Fluke. His FIP isn’t nearly that good.
Halladay is much better than Cain.
And Halladay’s been doing it while pitching in the big boy league.
As for extending his contract, how much do you plan on giving him to get him to re-sign with Texas?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Wonder if he'd take a 3/27 extension for '12-'14 this Winter.
I’m betting he wouldn’t cause he’s close enough to FA to see the glimmer coming off the pot of gold, but, maybe.
Security is security after all.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
No way in hell he does that
$9 million per year? Adam Eaton got 3 years, $24 million a couple of years ago after sucking with the Rangers and being up and down his whole career.
There’s not a chance he takes 3 years $27 million. 3 years, $45 million, then you’re talking.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Totally different market and totally different decision.
I know, I know, totally different pitcher, too.
On the open market, yah, 15mm per season is probably a lot closer to it.
But that’s a ridiuclous expectation given the market and how he’s still got two more years before FA.
He’d have to want the security more than the possibility of a big long term deal in Winter ‘11, but I don’t think 9 or 10 mil a year is unreasonable at all given the particulars.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
He's already set for life
He signed his big contract. He and his family are set.
Maybe he’s the type of guy who would take a 3 year, $27 million deal for more security from 2012-14. But I suspect that, if that were the case, San Fran would have already done that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Wow, I thought that's low
If we could get him to sign for that much, that would be great. He will be entering his FA in his prime and looking for one big payday that will take him to around the age of 32.
I think it will take a contract that’s a lot higher than that.
I agree that his ERA+ this year is insane
But for his career he’s
2005 – 183 – only 7 GS
2006 – 108 – Full rookie year
2007 – 122
2008 – 116
2009 – 189
I also think he will improve over the years due to experience so I don’t think it’s out of the question to expect at least a 120+ ERA+ for him.
As for a contract, what do you think it would take to extend him? I think you can extend him for say a
5 year 75M contract
1st – 13M
2nd – 14M
3rd – 15M
4th – 16th
5th – 17M
So we’d have him for what, a total of 7 years? So we’d have him until he’s 32 years old.
I know you think this is way too high for him because you don’t see him as an ace.
I think he can be an ace (if nothing changes and continues to improve) and I would give him that contract.
Age is wrong
He’s 24 now until October so he’s 25 all next season, not 26.
Zuh, I'm bad at seeing, I glanced and thought it said 1 as his birth month and not 10.
Still not a real huge difference, but, you’re right.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions
The Multi-year park factors for the Giants ballpark are 102
FWIW.
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
Not to mention that you shouldn't trade Davis now
Davis’s trade value is practically zero, and even if you thought he was never going to recover you’re better off keeping him and hoping you’re wrong. Before this season a deal like Davis for Cain straight up almost made sense. To now include Cruz and two very good prospects is idiotic.
The only way you trade Chris Davis is if someone gives you 80% of his pre-season value. And that deal isn’t it
Go Rice Owls!
The NL pitching park is no excuse
His Home/Away splits are identical.
You call him a LAIE but you know what?
In the history of the Texas Rangers organization with starters starting more than 60 games in there career. The rankings for ERA+ on the team is
1. Matt Cain – 126 ERA+
2. Gaylord Perry – 117
3. N. Ryan – 116
4. J. Matlack – 112
5. C. Hough – 112
Calling him a LAIE while having better #’s than any other Texas Rangers pitcher in its history is a little insulting to him.
This is also going with 5 years of stats and 125 games of pitching for him while having identical road/home splits.
Cain
He’s not that good.
He’s a solid starter. His not an ace.
And he’s not worth giving up Davis, Cruz, Kiker and Beavan for.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't give up that package either
But to say that he’s “not that good” is objectively false.
And nobody is calling him an ace.
by brettgardner on Jul 25, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't understand why you think he's not an ace?
1. Cain shows he’s a consistent ERA+ guy home/away
2. He shows that he can pitch 200 innings a year
3. Gets a lot of K’s, 7.6 SO/9
I can understand the fly ball ratio but his home/away splits are identical so I can’t see it being that big of a factor.
What is he missing that you think he’s not an ace besides reputation? I think he can be an ace if given the chance.
Why isn't he an ace?
Because he’s not one of the 15 or so best starting pitchers in baseball.
He’s a good pitcher who has consistently posted FIPs in the 3.80 range since coming to the majors.
But he’s a fly ball guy who walks a fair amount of hitters and who has racked up a lot of innings.
I think he is what he is, and I don’t see him coming here and blossoming into ace status.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
What would you be willing to give up for Cain?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
This is tough
because I tend to over value our players.
A couple things to keep in mind considering SF’s needs. They need hitting and they have depth at pitching.
I would start off with Davis, what does SF rate him? Do they see his potential or would they stick with a future of Villalona?
Cruz – I think this is a very important piece for them and a piece they would want.
Beltre – I really think SF will want Borbon but they’re lacking OF prospects. They Rafael Rodriguez who’s a superstar or a bust and no in between just like Beltre.
People mentioned Beaven and Kiker but how much interest would SF have in them? They have Linceum/Bumgarner/Alderson as the top 3. They’re stuck with Zito, have lesser guys like Sanchez and Sosa.
I would offer Davis/Cruz/Beltre for Cain.
I have no problem including a pitcher instead if they want like Davis/Cruz/Beaven.
I know before the season, people were talking about basically trading Davis for Cain almost 1 for 1. I don’t think that was an offer SF would’ve realistically consider making.
Davis value diminished while Cruz’s value blossomed so in the end, I think value wise it’s still the same.
I guess what it comes down to is Davis/Cruz/ and a list of guys who they would want as #3 (Beaven/Beltre/Kiler etc.).
This is also going with that we’re getting Willingham and possibly Dunn.
We can’t make this trade and further weaken our offense since that has been a true weakness this season.
So...
If you send Cruz, Davis and Beavan to San Fran for Cain, what are you expecting to give the Nats for Willingham and Dunn?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
What do you think it would take?
Maybe a C, I don’t know if they think Flores is the future? They do have Nieto and Norris but how realistic are they being everyday catchers? Could Teagarden be a piece?
They talk about trading N. Johnson, they have Marrero in the minors. Could Moreland be a piece?
They have no 2B prospects – Maybe Vallejo
Maybe Murphy could be a piece? I would want to keep Byrd because he’s capable of playing CF.
My next question is how long do we control Willingham and Dunn and how much do they make?
If we can control them for a little while and they can be part of our foundation the next 2 years while not being a salary burden.
Is Teagarden, Murphy, Moreland and Vallejo for Willingham, Dunn, Clippard a respectable offer?
I have no clue what value the Nationals players have so I can be totally off. I think Clippard might have a lot of value due to this season and his age so I would have no problem taking him out of the deal and reworking something else.
If this is indeed a solid offer.
We trade Davis, Cruz, Beaven, Teagarden, Murphy, Moreland, and Vallejo for players that fill holes, control for more than 1 year, and not trade any big prospect studs.
Don’t these trades help the “Now” while not mortgaging the future?
Okay
So you want to trade:
Cruz
Davis
Beavan
Murphy
Teagarden
Moreland
Vallejo
for
Cain
Willingham
Dunn
I don’t think that offer for Dunn and Willingham gets it done, but let’s suppose it does.
Willingham is gone after the season. Byrd is gone after the season. Blalock is gone after the season.
Your outfield is now Murphy, Borbon and Hamilton for 2010, with Dunn as your DH and Smoak at 1B. You’ve got Salty behind the plate with no real backup plan if he continues to not hit.
After 2010, Dunn is gone. You’ve got no DH, a 4th outfielder playing LF, and you’ve got Matt Cain to show for it.
That seems like you are sacrificing quite a bit of the future for what is essentially an effort to win either this year (when you’re already 3.5 games back) or in 2010.
Dunn is gone after 2010.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's the problem that I have
I didn’t know Willingham was a FA after this year. Say we can sign him for another 1 year contract so he can play in 2010 and both Dunn and Willingham are gone after 2010.
2011
C- Salty/Max
1B- Smoak
2B-Kinsler
3B-Young
SS-Elvis
LF-?
CF-Borbon
RF-Hamilton
DH-Max/Possible FA
So going into the 2011 season, we would only need a FA signing in LF (if Beltre is a bust) and DH if Max isn’t hitting well enough to DH everyday.
OF bench can be Boggs, Golson, FA filler
So
1. Our holes can be filled with prospects (Beltre and Max) if they don’t bust.
2. If they are busts, we would need to sign/trade for a LF, DH, some bench guys. We can’t expect our whole offense to be filled internally.
3. Fielding hitters/defensive players is much easier than pitchers.
Rotation and bullpen can consist of
Cain, Holland, Feliz, Feldman, Hunter, Perez, BMac, Harrison, CJ, Fransico, Kiker, Main, N. Ramirez, Moscoso, Gomez, Boscan, Font, Hurley, Ross, Poveda, Wieland, Scheppers, Purke, Madrigal, and etc.
A lot will be busts but the point is our pitching depth can totally fill every pitching spot while the only big contract is Cain.
I don’t think we’re sacrificing the future when we have to sign/trade for less than 7 guys for the 2011 season.
He's not a f.a.
But he’ll get $5-6 million in arbitration, and I don’t see that the Rangers are going to pay him that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
If he can post
a .280 BA and a .400 OBP for the rest of the year. I think it’s worth it to sign him to a 1 year contract for 2010 for at 5-6M.
I think he’s still a RFA in 2011 too from what I read in this thread so then we trade him in the offseason after the 2010 season.
If he posts back to back .280 BA and .390 OBP seasons, I think he would have some nice value to trade.
We might be poor
But we aren’t that poor to have to non-tender a 5-6 million dollar player if he can continue putting up the numbers he’s putting.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
What do you expect him to hit next season?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
close to what he's hitting this year??
i mean, 5 million is a bargain for his numbers really. Even if you dont wanna keep him, you can deal him fairly easily.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
He's having by far the best year of his career
And he’s 30 or 31.
Do you expect him to 1) continue hitting as well the rest of the year as he has so far this year, rather than hitting more like he has hit in the past, and 2) continue hitting like that next year?
And I don’t think you can deal him fairly easily. Bobby Abreu got 1 year, $5 million this past offseason. Willingham isn’t considered to be as good as Abreu, doesn’t play any defensive position well, and isn’t, I think, going to bring back something of value this offseason for hte right to pay him $5-6 million via arbitration.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
BA is not a better player at this point than Willingham
and is older. Willingham would be more valueable by a good bit than Abreu is this year for the Angels and Abreu is well worth the money the Angels spent this year. Willingham is in his prime as a hitter and has shown so far this year that he could be more than just a good hitter, he could be a great hitter…
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Abreu was better than Willingham last season
So far in what has been Willingham’s career 2009 season, Willingham has been better, although as a part-time player.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Ok, but Willingham going into next season is more
valueable than Abreu coming into this season, thats where the argument lies. And if you’d ask me, the Angels got a steal in that signing…
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Also
Do you expect Smoak and Davis to both be here next year?
If so, where does Willingham play?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I think he can be what we were hoping Blalock would be this year
There is the potential log jam next year, but Willingham is going to be an affordable bat who I would expect to have .370+ wOBA next season and he could be in the .390-.400 range again. If we’re “forced” to keep him here and have Smoak or Davis sit in the minors for a little longer, that’s fine IMO.
Anyways, I’m also much less concerned about next season when talking about trading for Willingham now. The main goal in trading for Willingham would be to help the team right now. And after this season, you’re not talking about Willingham really hurting the club but rather blocking a prospect from getting promoted as quickly.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Okay
Willingham is going to be an affordable bat who I would expect to have .370+ wOBA next season
Why? He’s never done that before 2009.
And the reason I talk about Willingham after 2009 is because I’m trying to understand whether the people who are advocating going and getting him are seeing him as a one year rental, or someone who will be a regular on the 2010 team, as well.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm looking at statcorner numbers
I just realized that you are probably looking at Fangraphs. They have him at a .387 wOBA in 2006, .369 in 07, and a .376 last season. Looking at Fangraphs, they have him in the .360s during his Florida time. Is it that crazy even with those numbers to think that he could add a few points to his wOBA to get to .370. Playing in Texas over Florida alone should get him right around that mark.
I think of him mainly as a 1 year rental player. I think we should trade for him now, see what we can do with him this season. At that point, you make the decision whether you want him back for next season or if you want to move him. He’s not going to lose that much value in the offseason for a team to not offer anything for a guy like Willingham. And if he is producing next year, then he’s likely going to have similar value to what he has now.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I believe wOBA is park and league adjusted
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Not sure about the Fangraphs one
but the Statcorner one has wOBA* for park adjusted wOBA. I think both are league adjusted in the original wOBA.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
also, for what its worth, the Rangers spent 5 million retaining Hank Blalock
who has less offensive value and is extremely injury prone. JW has a career 850 OPS with a .367 on base percentage… thats a valueable hitter. This year, he’s hitting even better and you can hope that he can possibly continue producing close to a .900 OPS hitter with over a .400 on base percentage. His BB % has ticked up this year and he’s always had good enough power. I think he would be a good to great asset to have on this team b/c he adds much needed patience. We can sort through where everyone else in our orginization fits. We dont know if both Smoak and Davis will be quality ML hitters and they are still young enough that another year in the minors will not hurt them.
Id love to have Willingham finish the year with us and then i dont see anyway we’d let him walk if he’s gonna only cost 5-6 in arbitration.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
And the Rangers were kicking themselves...
…this spring for spending that money on Blalock. They exercised the option thinking that they’d likely move him for pitching help. If they’d known in October what the market was going to be like, they’d have declined the option.
I think it is funny that we are now talking about keeping Davis or Smoak down in the minors for an extra year so we can dick around with Josh Willingham in 2010.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions
The hell with Ben Sheets
We’d rather spend that money next year on Josh Willingham.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
What the hell is wrong with a .370 On base percentage
and an 850+ Ops??
I highly, highly doubt Davis or Smoak will be near as productive as a JW will be in 2010. I really think you have something up your ass on this one.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
You have to avoid
overpaying for a career year. I think that’s the point of it.
This whole thread is tiresome, since it pretty much begins with someone who advocates changing the entire structure of the team to accomodate Matt Cain, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham.
If Willingham could be had for a grade C pitching prospect and a fringy, toolsy position guy, I’m all for it, but I think restructuring the team for players like Willingham is one of the quickest ways to screw up this rebuild.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
well, I agree, he's having a great year, but that doesnt mean he
hasnt been a very solid to good hitter with a high on base percentage every other year he’s played in the majors. And who’s to say he hasnt become a better hitter this year? He entered the year at 29, right at the prime of his career. He’s increased his BB % and shown some more power. Why cant he improve some from an .850 OPS guy to a .900 OPS guy? He’s worth 5 million either way, well worth it. And his patience a the plate is much needed this year and in the future.
Im not for letting prospects rot in the minors, but I see no reason why letting either Smoak or Davis spend most reason next year would really hurt them. Davis still needs to cut down on his Ks and Smoak’s power hasnt quite shown up and he’s struggled to hit AAA pitching so far anyways.
If we plan on winning in 2010, Willingham adds another win or two if not more over whoever we’d internally replace him with.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
x
If we plan on winning in 2010, Willingham adds another win or two if not more over whoever we’d internally replace him with.
No, he doesn’t.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
really? wow, so you think Smoak and/or Davis will put
up enough numbers to negate that?
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Let's say he puts up
his career average of a .360ish OBA, yeah, I think either Davis or Smoak can imitate that at a much lower cost.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
i dont think so
especially Davis
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
I think you're being way too down
on a guy who had a bad 1/2 a season.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
no, i think in 2012 he hits 50 HRs
and hits .280… I just think he has a ways to go in terms of figuring out the strikezone. I actually love Davis, but i just dont see how you can expect him to be an .850 OPS hitter next year.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Isn't that the same logic
that led to Hank Blalock – the 6 million dollar man?
If he puts up his career averages, can we really say for certain if he’ll be a better player than Justin Smoak or Chris Davis?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
And is the extra 25 points or so of OPS...
…that you are assuming you’ll get from Willingham as compared to Smoak or Davis worth:
1) The $5-6 million more than you’ll spend on Willingham, and
2) Not getting Smoak or Davis the opportunity to get more major league experience and be involved in what you are assuming is a pennant race next year?
Hell, if the plan is to roll with Willingham and let Smoak or Davis spend all of next season in AAA, then just trade Smoak or Davis before Opening Day.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions
And Davis
He’s 23, has had success in the majors, and has an OPS over 1000 in AAA right now.
But you want him to go back and spend a third year in AAA in 2010, at age 24, so that we can have Josh Freaking Willingham play first base?
Good grief.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions
uh, why cant Smoak play in AAA?
i think you are not paying attention to what im saying. You have either one of those guys win a spot in the ML, the other sent down. Davis is still striking out too much, he still could use a bit of development. No matter what, we still have the option of dealing any of those three guys, JW, CD, Smoak.
And yes, Id love to have JW play 1B. Who wouldnt like a guy who’s consistently got on base over 36% of the time on this team that only has two players doing that so far this year. I would love to have a guy who might and is currently putting up a +900 OPS on our team. I would love to have a guy walking a good portion of the time at bat.
I dont see why you have it for a guy who is consistently a solid hitter and is showing signs of being a very good hitter this year.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Okay
So Smoak, who was going to be fast tracked, and was expected to be up early next year, can spend a season and a half in AAA instead, so we can spend $5-6 million on Willingham?
Willingham is 30 years old. There’s no reason to believe he’s going to keep posting a 900+ OPS. He is what he is, and that’s certainly not worth $5 million more than Davis and Smoak.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions
i think the increased BB rates and the fact that he
’s entering his prime as a hitter means that i can hope for and expect a .370 + OBP and close to a .870 OPS. Thats not very outrageous
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
He's not entering his prime as a hitter
Hitter’s peaks generally are from age 25-29.
The idea that a guy who will be 31 next season is entering his prime is fallacious.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Because of 2 things
1) He’ll have the price tag, both in prospects and arbitration #s, of a great hitter, not a solid hitter.
2) Opportunity costs. If this team is going to become a consistent winner, it’ll have guys like Smoak and Davis, not Willingham as a central part of the offense.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
consistent winners use pitching and defense
i thought we’ve gone over this… haha
I dont think it matters where we get the offensive production, but as long as we get it. If we want to win next year, JW> CD or SMoak. Thats a no brainer to me. Now the question i guess is whether he’s worth the 5 million there. There are a ton of variables that mitigate that like trades, injuries and the like. Those are hard to put into this equation, but if an injury occurs, Josh, Nellie, CD, or Smoak, this almost becomes moot as JW would just pick that up.
Now, whether or not the 5 million is worth the difference bt. Smoak and Davis one to one, thatsa close call, yes. But if he’s worth one WAR more than either of them, then yes, he’s worth it. The development of those players should not be hurt IMO. I mean, Davis still is not a polished hitter and the K rates have to go down. We saw this year what happened when he lost control of the strikezone, his ML time pretty much became a negative time in terms of development. Its been viewed as a positive time of development so far in the minors. Why cant he spend some time doing the same next year? And ok, so if he stays in the bigs, and Smoak stays down in AAA next year. Why is that such a problem? Smoak has not shown that he’s ready for the bigs yet. And even if he could come up here and hold his own, he would not be bringing an entirely developed game. There are still alot of things for him to work on down in the minors like hitting LHP and his developing his power. He hasnt shown he can hit AAA pitching yet either.
Anyways, I think JW would be worth about 1.5 WAR over one of Smoak or Davis next year, whoever is deemed less worthy of playing everday in the MLs next year. You can say otherwise, but thats just how i feel and i think there is validity to my stance.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
another thing to think about
he could also take a spot somewhere in the corner OF if we deal one of our OFs. Its not like this has to be a Smoak vs. JW.
But no matter what, I think he’s well worth whatever he’ll get in arbitration
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
He's a crappy defensive outfielder
And we already have Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy, and Boggs here next year filling COF slots.
If Willingham gets non-tendered this offseason, would you want the Rangers to give him, say, a 2 year, $10 million deal to come here?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Adam
would you trade, say, Davis and Beavan for Cain?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Really?
I understand your love for CD (which I have also) and that you don’t think Cain is a TORP, but I’d do that deal in a heartbeat.
Of course SF wouldn’t though.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
The problem is
how many aces have we had in our career?
Halladay IS an ace but he would also require a ridiculous haul. Say we can get Cain for Davis, Cruz, and Beaven. That’s significantly less than what we’d have to give up for halladay.
I also have no problem trading Cruz because I previously mentioned that I’d want Willingham and Dunn too (which I have no clue what it would take to get him).
One reason why all of this won’t/can’t happen is because salary comes into play.
I honestly think we could get Willingham/Dunn/Cain for slightly cheaper than Halladay alone.
Why i say slightly cheaper is because I think we can pull these trades off whiling keeping Smoak/Holland/Feliz/Perez
Check his three year splits
that ERA+ isn’t that consistent.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I can't get his ERA+ on his splits so I'll use ERA
2006 – Rookie year
Home – 3.22 – 114.2 IP
Away – 5.57 – 76 IP
2007
Home – 3.48 – 108.2 IP
Away – 3.84 – 91.1 IP
2008
Home – 3.67 – 120.1 IP
Away – 3.88 – 97.1 IP
2009
Home – 2.26 – 63.2 IP
Away – 2.27 – 67.1 IP
As you can see, his rookie year is the only one where it’s complete off. Your 3 year average does not include this year.
Other than that, I think they’re pretty close and you see improvement from the home/away split each year which I think is a very good sign.
Cain
what scares me are the really, really scary usage rates he’s racked up at such an young age. I really think that there’s significant injury risk with a guy like that.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Indeed.
Tons of innings on that arm.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
I give you that but.....
Greinke is pretty much one year older than Cain.
Career so far – 800 IP with a career 96.9 P/GS or 16.1 P/IP
Cain
785.2 career IP while having 104.8 P/GS or 16.6 P/IP
Are they that much different?
This is also going with Greinke have injuries in his past while Cain having none.
My next question for the experts, what kind of pitching form does Cain have? Does he put a lot of stress on his arm? Is his pitching motion like a Peavy where injuries might come in the future?
Greinke has injuries?
I don’t really remember that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 25, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
He really doesn't.
He spent time on the 60-day as the result of his anxiety disorder, if you want to count that as an “injury”.
I'm going by pitching 3 games one year
and the mostly being used out of the pen the following year.
I figured there was something injury related with that.
his anxiety stuff was a pretty big story in baseball that year
the preceding post was a great success.
That's definitely one of my concerns with Cain
Its not just at the ML level either. When he started in the minors, he had one half season of A ball where he pitched 75 innings and then jumped up to the 160 mark followed by a 190 inning season at the age of 20 and then pretty pitching at least that many innings since then.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I'm not sure I would make that offer for Halladay
and he is much more gooder than Cain.
You wouldn't trade
Davis/Cruz/#3 being Beltre or a Beaven for Halladay?
It will take a lot more than that to land Halladay. Phillies are balking on Toronto’s demand because the asking price is Happ, Drabek, and Brown. There’s no way we can talk about Halladay without trading a Feliz or a Smoak type player.
Cruz/Davis/Beaven/Kiker...
Is what I was intending on replying to. I think I did actually, it was just WAY down the page now.
Anywho, you could certainly argue that Cruz has the most value of any of the guys listed. I would probably rank them Drabek-Cruz-Happ-Davis, but I would much rather have Beaven and Kiker over Brown. Very different packages, but not very far apart in value.
And, no, I am pretty sure I don’t trade Cruz/Davis/Beaven/and Kiker for Halladay.
Yeah, I'd do that.
I’d really love to nab Clippard, but I kinda doubt the Nats give him up, since young pitching is supposed to be what they’re after.
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
I almost spit coffee out of my nose when you called Clippard young, cause it seems like he's been around for so dang long, but you're right.
He’s only 24.
I would’ve guessed 29 or 30.
Interesting.
But, yah, I don’t see anyway he gets included in that deal. He seems like exactly the kind of dude Washington needs to be hlding onto.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
That deal is a no brainer.
If you can improve this team without giving up one of the top 10 prospects in the system (and yeah, I guess some list somewhere may have Poveda or Moreland around #10, but you know what I mean), you have to do it.
Of course most of the effective pitchers for the Rangers were not top 100 prospects. Most players in baseball weren’t. Doesn’t mean that you hold onto ever non-top 100 prospect around. At most, Poveda is a 10% shot to be an effective pitcher in the majors. Moreland has a higher chance of being a big leaguer, but it’s doubtful he’s ever a critical cog to a team.
The odds are so high on some of these prospects that you have to cash them in for something real and tangible when you get the chance, especially if you could really use it. And this team could really use someone to get on base.
Go Rice Owls!
I liked the part of the Article about trading our Double A team for Greinke
Lots of prospects for the best …
Scattershooting
With the roster glut that having Willingham would cause (OF – Murphy, Hamilton, Cruz, Byrd, Willingham, Jones and DH – Willingham and Jones, both RH) I think you need to maximize value for Byrd while you can.
CIncinnati has been said to be looking for ML OF help and is shopping Arroyo and maybe even Harang. Would you do Byrd, Kiker and Boscan for Harang and convince them to throw in Josh Ravin who looks like he could be on a faster track, with somewhat similar numbers, than Boscan?
Keeping with the Washington deal, trade up Poveda, Moreland and Moscoso for Willingham and Clippard and try to snake Mitchell Clegg from them?
Our 40 (which trumps all) is a little stacked right now and for the foreseeable future. These moves take away three and add three to the 40, so that is a wash, but we’d also take two more young, high K pitchers to plug in to Hickory (Clegg) and Bakersfield (Ravin) in the mean time.
Daniels has created a habit of coming out of nowhere with “throw in” pieces that the field scouts do an excellent job of researching, that track record definitely needs to continue if we are going to push some of the chips in to the pot for this season.
Rotation of Millwood, Harang, Feldman, Padilla (post swine) and Hunter/Holland wouldn’t be too bad in my estimation. Understanding that Byrd is a clubhouse guy, that’d be the tough part, but if we’re trying to get to the postseason and do something there, you need guys on the team that have been there. Willingham, Andruw Jones (who’d get more playing time) and Harang have all been there and you’d think have a bit more calming influence and better words of wisdom once the time comes for all of this to matter. Yes the financials may be a bit of work to sort out, but it’s for one season only and you’d have to think that MLB would pitch in a little on the LOC (like Josey suggested above) for there to be an increased interest in the Rangers at the gate and interest in potential investors.
Rivalries aside, RIP Nick Adenhart 04/09/2009.
"if daniels was fired today, he would almost be sure to get another shot somewhere else as a GM
i dont know if you can say the same thing abotu RW" - knockoutking
Won't someone think of the 40?
Let’s say JD does call up the Nats and offer them that deal. Being a good gentleman, he refuses their counter offer (‘We want Smoke, Fleas, and that Switzerland kid!’) and then refuses their second counter offer (‘We want Hyatt, Stoneburner, and a bucket of that mud they use on the basesballs before the game!’).
They settle on the Poveda/Moreland for Willingham/Clip Art deal. In a reverse Thunderdome move, one guy goes off the 40 while another two come on.
Not a huge problem, you say- we can just 60 Matty Ice, and we got this covered.
As you’re filling out the form 901D, ‘Request to 60-Day DL a somewhat disappointing Lefty’, you feel an odd pinge.
You go on out to lunch before the press conference, knowing full well it’s not wise to eat before coming into the presence of Jennifer Floyd Engel, and that pinge stays there. ‘Nerves.’, you say, and you finish your ribs and waffles.
An hour later, you’re standing at the podium, introducing the two latest additions to the Texas Rangers. Nolan’s there, Hicks is there (which is odd, for some reason he didn’t go to lunch with you. You notice later there’s a Lunchable package with an out-of-date clearance sticker on it in his trashcan. You chuckle at his financial poor-being.). You answer some questions, and head home for the evening a little early- it’s been a long day, and you just did quite a bit to settle your teams OBP problems. There’s some I35 shufflin’ to be done in the morning, but it’s your personal time now. You drive home, your mind flitting about how exactly you’ll make those 25 Man moves tomorrow, and that pinge gets worse. ‘Just stress.’ you tell yourself. Heckuva day.
You eat a nice dinner, watch some Deadliest Catch (That Sig’s just irascible!) , and turn in a little early. As you settle down, that pinge gets stronger… and stronger… and stronger…
‘What is it? Should I have gone after Johnson instead? Should I have tried to move Andruw somewhere, even if I only got Hamburgers back for him? Am I prepared to tell Ron that this is going to cut into Byrd’s and Andruw’s playing time more than anyone else?’
The pinge seems to go away thinking about the lineup- that’s not where the problem is.
‘Maybe it’s this bullpen thing. This Clip Art guy’s not too bad. We needed another strong Righty in there.’
Your mind wanders back to who’s going tohave to go back down to OKC. Who would you remove to add a young, strikeout righty to this pen, one who has a chance of transitioning to starting in the not-too-distant?
Wait- that feeling, it just magnified. The most intense it’s been- what was it?
Righty, young, high strikeout, bullpen, starter down the road…
And it hits you- Matty’s 40 spot should have gone to Neftali Feliz.
You then realize you just thought out your entire day, with references to Thunderdome, Deadliest Catch, and Tom Hicks being forced to eat out-of-date Lunchables, all to say ‘Would we be better off long-term using this oppurtunity to get Feliz on the 40 and the 25, rather than adding in another ML reliever right now?’
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
OT: The Blue Jays apparently want
JA Happ, Dominic Brown and Kyle Drabek for Halladay. And, apparently, it’s too expensive.
What would be the Rangers equivalent?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I don't think the Rangers have anyone
by LiamP on Jul 25, 2009 11:32 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Stupid phone
I meant to say the Rangers don’t have anyone like Brown; Beltre comes closest I think.
by LiamP on Jul 25, 2009 11:35 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
They're not a match
Brown rated a lot higher than Beltre.
Of course they're not a direct match
We don’t have an outfielder in this system that is even remotely Brown’s level. Beltre’s a comp in terms of toolsy OFs. The huge difference, obviously, is that Brown’s actually parlayed his tools into results while Beltre hasn’t come close to doing that.
Still, Beltre’s still a couple of years younger than Brown and they’re both in high A, so there’s some hope.
BA ranked Brown and Drabek as the 17th and 24th best prospects in all of baseball at mid-season, fwiw.
And Happ is a pretty decent looking young pitcher producing in the bigs, though nothing to right home about.
Hard to come up with an uquivalant package, but gun to my head I’d say Justin Smoak, Martin Perez and Tommy Hunter.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
No, for us. I don't think we have the money, I don't think Halladay'd re-up here, and we're in a position where adding Halladay puts us over the top.
But, if I’m Philly? Fuck, yes I’d make that deal.
They’re in a strong position financially and are set pretty much everywhere at the big league level. They have enough prospects that their system won’t be bereft with out Brown and Drabek, too.
That deal makes them an absolute BEAST both this year and next.
If they pass up on a chance to snag Doc Halladay because they want to keep Drabek they’re nuts. He’s an awesome young pitching prospect, but Doc’s freaking Doc, man.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Heh
"Guys are visual creatures, that’s how we’ve been wired, for millennia…only fat and or ugly chicks use that word you just typed." - Rodney
by inactive lsb user on Jul 25, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I get all choked up everytime I hear about drabek
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
Me too, brother.
Me too…
Of course I get all rigid when I think about Smoak and Purke and Scheppers and Der-Hol and Feliz and Perez, so, you know.
Shit evens out.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
word
you never know how it’d all work out. Word was, the season long injury really straightened Drabek out. Who knows what would have happened had he been drafted by Texas.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
True enough.
And it’s not like we went Drew Meyer over Kazmir there, either. More like Joe Saunders over Kazmir if you ask me.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
This is true
but drabek will still be the one that got away.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
I wouldn't make that deal
Then again, it looks like the Phillies won’t be making that deal either.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
If you were the Phills you wouldn't make that deal?
I understand they’re balking now, cause why give in right now when there’s a chance Toronto might give in and settle for less.
But if Toronto plays hard ball and won’t settle for anything less than that package, I think Philly’d be crazy not to pull that trigger.
They’re in a perfect position to add a true ace for a playoff run.
This is one of the ways a farm system can help you contend. For all the Josey Donuts rhetoric about how dudes don’t matter until they do it in The Show, this is why they do.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know much about the Phillies guys past their stats and what's been said about them here
But if you’re talking about those guys in a package as similar in value to Smoak/Perez/Hunter, no I wouldn’t. Going for 2 WS in a row is great, but I think they’d sacrificing way too much of the future if they make that deal and of course, those players might be key players for future playoff runs too.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Gotta make a run sometime, man.
And that core ain’t getting any younger.
I’m a huge advocate of building through the farm, but the chance to add Roy Halladay to team like that is 100% worth that price tag, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
They've made their run already
They’ve got their WS and now should make sure that they don’t risk future WS runs to try and win this year. This is just my opinion and it looks like we disagree on what Philly (or in general, a team in their position) should do here. For me, I’d be happy with the 1 WS victory and work on maintaining a dynasty team after that. I think that you risk a lot less that way while still putting yourself in a great position to succeed.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
The past is the past and shouldn't come into play here at all, imo.
The fact that they won last year shouldn’t play any part in deciding how to play the next few years.
When the window is open and you have chance to add an elite ace at the price of a couple of blue chippers 1.5-3 years away from helping at the big league level, you have to do it, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions
You know what's funny
when I see writers say the Phillies have a ton of very good prospects,in addition to Happ/Drabek, to entice the Jays and then they mention John Mayberry Jr.
Trade for Ian Snell.
Heh.
They do have a slew of real interesting guys, though.
Carrasco and Bastardo are intriguing upper level arms.
Taylor and Brown are hotshit toolsy OF’ers who both made the top 25 in BA’s mid-season list.
And Jason Knapp has busted out to a ridiculous degree this year. 2nd rounder out of HS last year reportedly dials it up as high as 97. 111 k’s in 85 innings in A- as a 19 year old. Um, yes, please. He made the honorable mention in that same BA top 25, so he’s in the same 26-50 range as our beloved Marteen.
So, yah. The Phills have a very strong system at the top. Not sure how they’re depth is, but that shouldn’t matter too much in this context.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
sure that what the Jays want.....
They will not get that, but you might as well shoot high.
My guess all along is that the Jays get 1 bluechip prospect (Smoak), 1 back of the rotation young guy thats ready of the bigs (Hunter) and 1 lottery ticket (Font)
so from the Phils….that would be Drabek or Brown….Happ, and then a low level A player that projects highly.
by death of the cool on Jul 25, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
If the Jays could get Drabek, Happ or Carrasco, and Knapp, that'd have to be seen as a great package for them, imo.
That’s two top 50 prospects + a decent major league ready arm.
Packages better than that don’t get sent out that often, not even for pure aces.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Jamey's proposal
Would you trade Poveda and Mitch Moreland for Willingham? Would you expand it to include Moscoso for right-handed reliever Tyler Clippard?
I would do and I think Washington would do the Poveda and Moreland for Willingham deal. I am not sure about the expanded deal. Do they see Clippard as a future closer?
One reason the Rangers woildn’t do it is because Willingham is making $2.95M in his first year of arbitration. He would probably cost the Rangers ~$10M over the next 2 years at a time when Hicks wants to reduce payroll by attrition.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
I'm very intersested in Duke and Downs
for second tier prospects. And I’d part with Feliz, Font, and one or two second tier guys for Johnston. And I’d do the Willingham/ Clippard deal. To me, Dutch is the only guy off the table.
Imagine a team with Willingham’s dreamy ops, Duke and Johnston in the rotation, Downs and Clippard in the pen, and I dare you not to touch yourself. I know I just did.
That's why they call them business sox
I’d part with Feliz, Font, and one or two second tier guys for Johnston
You’d also lose your job and have to move to rural Afghanistan to avoid being drawn and quartered, Braveheart-style.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
He's a top of the rotation guy
with ace stuff, and an impressive, albeit small, track record.
That's why they call them business sox
And Johnson's a good OBP DH
with a long track record of injuries who’s expensive and will either be gone next year with no tangible long-term benefit (assuming we don’t offer arb, being broke and all) or we’re stuck with him on another one year deal and he’s hella expensive (assuming he accepts arb).
In short, that’s not worth dealing away two TORG potential pitchers plus two more second-tier prospects (and our second tier guys are pretty damned good too).
In short, you don’t let the fucking Nationals rape you on a trade.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Hmmm... I think he switched subjects and meant JOSH Johnson with that one.
At least I hope so…
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Whew, that's a relief
Because Fleas and Wilmer and two other dudes for Nick Johnson is, like, Josey meeting a Holocaust denier level crazy.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Heh, you actually reacted quite sensibly then.
I would’ve burned down the damn internet if I’d thought he was suggesting that package for Nick Johnson.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Could you imagine how much that would piss Al Gore off?
Destroying his creation AND damaging the environment?
That’s some James Bond villain level evil.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Indeed.
No Feliz trades, people.
He’s young and cheap and close.
He’s going to be very, very good and he’s gonna be that way soon.
I hate to keep dropping the Ubaldo comp, but Feliz has a chance to be Ubaldo or maybe even better (more K’s, less homer prone), and he’s right on our damn doorstep. Everytime I watch Ubaldo blow people away with his fastball sitting in the 94-98 range all game long I just smile.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Concur...
Feliz goes nowhere, except Arlington in a couple weeks.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I think Downs would take a lot more than a secondary prospect.
He’s a really good reliever who has now done enough to satisfy the question of whether he can handle the pressures of closing.
But I’m with you in that acquiring one of the second or third tier veteran arms might make some sense.
Not just for this year, but we need another vet to pencil into the rotation behind Millwood next year, imo. Right now it’s Millwood, Feldman, Der-Hol and a bunch of maybe’s.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Poor timing.
He’s a really good reliever who has now done enough to satisfy the question of whether he can handle the pressures of closing.
He just blew his third straight save.
Heh, didn't know that.
Still, he’s been damn fine in the role overall since taking over for BJ Ryan’s carcass.
Hitters have a .465 OPS against him in save situations this year.
That’s pretty ridiculous.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
A solid established lefty reliever capable of closing or setting up who's signed affordably through next season.
He’s gonna cost.
Unless there’s something tangibly wrong with him recently that’s causing the blown saves, no one’s gonna kneejerk and devalue him cause of a SSS like that.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 25, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Just got in, haven't read all the comments
The Willingham portion of the deal seems fine to me, but what in the hell would we want with Tyler Clippard? I don’t think he is better than any of the options already available, and I don’t think he’s better than Moscoso.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
i don't get it.
2 effin recs?! this is a serious, informative and post with good incite, and it gets less rec’s than miles complaining about mavs or sharky shitting himself and wiping it off with the wrong hand.
jesus.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...

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