Bargain Shopping
Jamey's post has gotten me thinking, and combing the internet too. It's gotten me thinking about the two camps when it comes to the trade deadline as it pertains to your Texas Rangers. The camp that says, "When you have a shot at the playoffs, you load up as best you can and go after it." And then the camp that says. "Stick to 'The Plan' and hold your cards. Don't go chasing 'the missing piece' when this team is a 2010 and beyond team." I guess I should also include the 3rd camp that says, "It's Jonny Donuts time to step up and shine and fix this awful mess he has THIS THING in and stop worrying about BA rankings and worry about what's going on in THE SHOW. And if it fails it's because JD is a moron. But if it succeeds it's because Nolan Ryan identified the guy(s) THIS THING needed. KRIS DAVIS! THIS THING! THE SHOW! T.G.H.B.W.O.J '09!!!"
My thoughts on the matter are somewhere in the middle, where I think the majority of people fall. I think you owe it to the team to give them the best chance you can to make a run in 2009. But I also think that the strides that have been made across the entire organization shouldn't be risked for one piece on a team that could obviously use multiple pieces. So, I tried to identify guys across the league who should be/are available but at the same time aren't guys that are going to cause their team's GM to bring up names like Smoak, Holland, Feliz, or Perez. I don't really have a feel for all of their values or for all of their organizations specific needs. But, based on some internet rumblings and some names brought up right here on LSB, this is the list I came up with.
RH Bats:
Ryan Garko, 1B/DH, Cleveland Indians
.286/.362/.470 Overall, .328/.384/.567 vs. LHP
This tidbit from Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer via MBLTR:
Could be wrong, but I have a sense the Indians are working on a deal for Ryan Garko and that's why Andy Marte (.329, 17 HRs, 64 RBI, .958 OPS) has not been promoted. He will be brought up if the deal is made. Some fans have asked about Marte's contract situation and a Tribe operative sent me this: "He is eligible for minor-league free agency at the end of the year. If we do not add him to the 40-man roster before or at the end of the year, he would become a free agent. If we add him to the roster, he would be under control for next year. However, we would not be able to send him to the minors without first asking waivers because he is out of options."
While it seems more of a hunch than an actual rumor, it makes a lot of sense for a team trying to rebuild and talking about moving a lot of different names. Especially if they wind up with James Loney and want to give Andy Marte a look.
Josh Willingham, OF/DH, Washington Nationals
.291/.407/.565 overall, .326/.492/.674 vs LHP
From MLB.com's Bill Ladson via MLBTR:
The Rangers have been in Washington scouting the Nationals, according to a baseball source. Texas is looking for a right-handed hitter, and it is believed that it has interest in Josh Willingham, who has been one of the Nationals' most consistent hitters this season.
Willingham has been discussed ad nauseum here, and was of course the main subject of Jamey's post. He makes a ton of sense for a team lacking plate discipline and in need of a RH bat who can crush LHP. It helps that he has been crushing all pitching no matter which side they throw the ball from too. He is also sporting a very nice 50:34 K:BB ratio. He only has 219 ABs this season for what it's worth.
In the old, injured, slugger category; Gary Sheffield (40) and Troy Glaus (32). Both of these guys would figure to replace Andruw Jones as the RH DH. Sheffield is on the 15-day DL retroactive to July 18 with a hamstring injury. He has put up solid numbers for the Mets this year and a move to the AL and the DH role should help his numbers down the stretch. Also, the Tigers are paying most of his salary. Glaus hasn't played in 2009 after a very nice 2008 season. He doesn't really fit in St. Louis with Holliday in town. The Cardinals would have to foot some of the financial bill on Glaus which would raise the prospect price a little, but he should be available without having to surrender a lot of talent in terms of quality and quantity.
LH Bats:
Nick Johnson, 1B/DH, Washington Nationals
.298/.410/.409 overall, .343/.444/.515 vs LHP
Johnson has also been the topic of a few discussions here. His name seems to have fallen off the map compared to all the rumors floating around about him over the first half of the season. He could fit nicely anywhere in the lineup from 2-6. He also has a great line against LHP in 99 ABs this year. My guess is that the Nationals must be trying to hold teams at gunpoint. His name could heat up in the last few days before the deadline and he could go from being a bargain to creating a bidding war.
Adam Dunn, OF/1B/DH, Washington Nationals
.275/.403/.553
Everyone has an opinion on Dunn. He strikes out a lot and hits a lot of home runs so he seems like a Texas Ranger already. But, he has the plate discipline that this team sorely needs. He is also hitting in the .270s and I would imagine the short porch would be to his liking. Awful defender, base clogger, and he hits from the left side. Still, if you can snag him at a decent price, you do it. He does have a higher price tag in terms of dollars, so it could be a moo point (it's like arguing with a cow, it's moo) anyway unless Hicks sells his estate to finance the move.
Luke Scott, DH/OF, Baltimore Orioles
.285/.369/.581 overall, .301/.363/.651 vs LHP with 8 of his 18 HRs
I have no gauge for what the Orioles would want in return, or if they would even want to move him. They have their OF set with Jones, Markakis, and Reimold. Their catching is also set with Wieters and they have young pitching that even the Rangers could envy with Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and Bergesen. But that infield is lagging way behind. Aubrey Huff is another guy they could field offers for but his salary is prohibitive and his 2009 numbers aren't good enough to make a move for him anyway. If you could build a package that sent some infield help to Baltimore, they may listen. Problem is Vallejo, Arias, Lemon, etc. aren't going to get you Scott. And Scott is not worth Smoak or Davis. Probably not a match here at all, but he would be a definite upgrade.
Pitching:
SP Zach Duke, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
9-9, 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Duke is a Pirate, therefor he is on the trading block. He would be the most expensive in terms of talent of the Pirate pitching to go after. He has gone at least 6 innings in all but one start, when he went 5.1 innings. He is a Texas boy who throws left handed which has a certain appeal. You just don't know if you're going to get the Zach Duke of 2005 and 2009, or the Zach Duke of 2006-2008. He is also on the wrong end of the GO/AO line.
SP Carl Pavano, RHP, Cleveland Indians
8-8, 5.48 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Outside of May, Pavano has been incredibly inconsistent and uninspiring. He is a flyball pitcher. He does have his best K:BB ratio of his career in 2009. And he is cheap. The Indians are selling, and if you want to grab a veteran SP he should come at a reasonable price. He would bump Holland back to the pen, and provide more depth for a rotation that has lost Harrison for the year and probably B-Mac. It all depends whether you want Holland to learn how to be a ML SP in 2009 for the benefit of 2010 and beyond, or whether you want Holland as a big time bullpen arm and want to give your team it's best chance to win every 5th day. Because I think at this point, while Pavano is nothing special, he is a better #5 option than Holland. Of course, over 70 or so games, that may not make a huge difference.
SP/RP Ian Snell, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
I'm going to leave his stats out for now because of what he is doing at AAA. I don't know if his money is too rich for the Rangers blood, but he would give them the rotation depth they need while also being a viable option in the pen and on future Rangers teams.
I think Jeff (the writer) Wilson had some pretty good relief targets in this article, though Betancourt has since been dealt by Cleveland. I would also add John Grabow, Tyler Clippard (cause Jamey said so), and I'm sure there are others.
Point of this whole thing...there are ways to improve without sending out your top guys. And with the depth of this system, as has been mentioned by Jamey, you would have to make more than one blockbuster move to gut the farm. I hope this wasn't just a regurgitation of Jamey's points and of names that have been discussed plenty already. So, who makes sense? Who isn't on this list that should be? What would these guys cost?
4 recs |
104 comments
Comments
id love to get one of Scott, Johnson, or Willingham
any of those guys would be rather welcome
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 6:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Garko makes a lot of sense for the Rangers
he’s not a big investment, and I’m sure the Indians are ready to deal.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 6:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Garko inf 1 year/$0.4461M (2009)
ML service: 2.091
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Jul 26, 2009 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well this is his last really cheap year, and hes not that good
Won’t be a particularly great value the next few years. Hes still really a DH.
I don’t think hes that good of a player or anything, he just fits the Rangers short term need. If we let Blalock walk he would be a hedge on Davis struggling again though.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on Jul 26, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could he be flipped in the winter?
Also, maybe the light has gone on for him:
July 25th: In his last 44 games Garko is hitting .316, with eight home runs and 22 RBI.
He’s not a stud or anything, but would really help, and be a cheap pickup, I think.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Jul 26, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Id be
happy with either him or Willingham. Garko does give up a little power against lefties but he is by no means helpless against them. Id assume he would be cheaper than Willingham, right?
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've read they were looking to move Garko for a while
they really don’t need him, and he is a sellable asset….so I think he would be cheaper, yeah.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Jul 26, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he just got moved...
To the Giants for a low A pitcher…toldja he wouldn’t be expensive. Sigh.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Jul 27, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"He's still really a DH"...
so is Willingham imo. I may be interested in either if the price was low enough. However I think the Nats would want too much for Willingham.
Not sure what the Indians would want for Garko though.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Jul 26, 2009 11:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well put together post.
All of these players are somewhat interesting.. really just depends on the price prospect wise. One of these is definitely far more likely and probably smarter than the big SP names.
One thing I’d consider is which of them will be type B FAs and are wouldn’t be likely to take arb. I have no idea heh.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on Jul 26, 2009 6:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would also add Troy Glaus to your list
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He's there =p
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on Jul 26, 2009 6:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reading comprehension
apparently not one of my strengths.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Sheffield and Glaus
are that much alike, actually. Glaus is still relatively young, and he’s historically had a pretty good eye.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 6:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yea
I labeled him as old, then realized he is only 32. Seems like he should be older than that though. Glaus also costs a lot more and has been hurt all year.
"I tend to like young Latinos" -Jason Parks
by SaltyDawg on Jul 26, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he really won't cost that much
would he, in terms of prospects anyways.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just about to post that
They’ve already replaced him, he can’t play 3rd anymore, and they would get a huge PR boost by dealing him so he could play somewhere.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Jul 26, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it
but you would have to think the Cardinals would ask for a little extra to cover some of the money. But maybe they are motivated sellers now
"I tend to like young Latinos" -Jason Parks
by SaltyDawg on Jul 26, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given they just took on the Holliday contract
I don’t think it’d take much if you are willing to take the contract.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's my point
I don’t think the Rangers would be willing to take on that money…so they may have to send a little extra to get the cardinals to pay some of it
"I tend to like young Latinos" -Jason Parks
by SaltyDawg on Jul 26, 2009 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Garko would be awesome
but he’s young, cheap and is under club control for some time so I don’t see them moving him.
But the list overall is pretty solid and I would probably be happy with almost anyone from there as long as we don’t overpay with prospects.
by behindthebag on Jul 26, 2009 6:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think getting
Willingham makes a lot of sense but I think it would take more to get him then Jamey suggested in his Fanpost.
"I can wake up out of the bed and play outfield. It's easy." --Milton Bradley
by coolaid on Jul 26, 2009 6:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Willingham
would make a lot of sense. Id assume we arent going to re-sign Jones at the end of this yr. Probably will lose Blalock as well. There is no guarantee that Davis or Smoak set the world on fire next year. Willingham would be nice to have as a full time DH next year if Davis or Smoak dont grab that position.
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's your expectations for Willingham as a hitter next year?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well he has a
career OPS+ of 122 which is fluffed up a bit by his possible career yr this yr. He hasnt had an OPS+ less than 115 in the 3 yrs before this. I would think that he could put up a .270/.360/.460 type of line. I think that is possibly conservative because it would give him his lowest OPS in the last 4 yrs (counting this one).
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So if he puts up his career average
and cost us a level B prospect to acquire, do you think the advantage of Willingham vs. Smoak/Davis will be worth the cost (let’s say, Blake Beavan and 4 million dollars)
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the rest of this yr
and under control for the next 2 yrs plus we have no idea when Davis will be ready again and when Smoak will be ready. The primary reason for the deal would be this year of course and i do think willingham can produce a lot better than either Smoak or Davis could the rest of this yr. So yes i do think it will be worth it.
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Davis
I think we’re all being a bit too stupid when it comes to Davis. Yeah he struggled, but he has been pretty good in AAA. How exactly do you suggest he “becomes ready” again?
If anything, the only way we’ll know what we have in Davis is if we keep giving him opportunities on the ML level, cause he’s clearly not being challenged in AAA. I think Josh Willingham’s presence prevents that, especially if you want to keep Smoak as well.
If you go for Josh Willingham, it won’t be as Smoak/Davis insurance, it’ll be to replace one of them. So I ask you, do you expect Josh Willingham and his 4-5 million dollars + the guy you need to trade for him justifies the ABs you’re not giving to either Davis or Smoak?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
im pretty sure
the biggest reason for the Rangers to acquire him would be that he would be more productive as a DH than Smoak, Davis, etc. this yr. Do you disagree with that? i was pointing out bonuses of him being here beyond this yr. That wouldnt be the main reason for a deal.
“If you go for Josh Willingham, it won’t be as Smoak/Davis insurance, it’ll be to replace one of them” You really think that? You dont think it will be because he is a better option this yr than either Smoak or Davis?
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So do you non-tender him at the end of the year?
I think it’s reasonable to expect a mid-.850 to .900 OPS performance from him, but with about 70 games remaining, how many more wins does that get us?
I don’t understand your argument, since you have to play him somewhere, and the only place he can play is 1B or DH. So if you trade for him, you trade for him for 3 years. That takes ABs away from Smoak or Davis.
My argument is that the upgrade from Willingham this year could win the Rangers maybe 1 or 2 more games, but the cost of prospects and of opportunity cost will outweight any benefit.
SO unless you’re advocating that the Rangers trade for Willingham and then non-tender him this offseason, I’m not sure how you’ve answered anything.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have answered something
i believe that the Rangers should trade for him if the cost is a B level prospect (i would prefer Poveda over Beavan to be traded personally)
Should i be more blunt about it?
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, you made that clear
but my point is that there’s more cost to Willingham than that prospect.
There’s not only the payroll addition, which would be pretty significant, especially if Hicks sells the team in this atmosphere, but it’d also cost either Chris Davis or Justin Smoak major league ABs.
Given that Willingham is a player entering the age where Old Player Skill guys tend to drop off, do you think that he’d represent a worthwhile investment?
Let’s make this even more simple.
Column 1 Column 2
Josh Willingham B Level Prospect
4-5 Million in arbitration
ABs for Smoak and Davis
Do you think that the guy in Column 1 will be worth the things in column 2?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let Willingham
help the team this yr. Go to spring training and if Smoak and Davis beat him out (very plausible and hopefully expected) then Willngham is a bench player and he will probably take ABs away from Davis against really good lefties.
The main reason for the deal is for this yr. Like i have said before there are bonuses of having Willingham beyond this yr. Lets say it does get them two wins this yr, is the rest of his contract and a b level prospect worth that? Yes two wins is definitely worth that in a close race. If the Rangers dont think that Wilingham will out produce Davis if and when he gets called up then dont do the trade.
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think
that this team can afford a 5 million dollar bench player? I think if you trade for Willingham, you pretty do so with the idea that he’ll be a regular.
I don’t think your plan is very realistic.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or else...
…you do it with the idea that you’ll non-tender him in the offseason.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why doesn't anyone think Willingham would be tradeable if he were to become extraneous here?
by Jamey Newberg on Jul 26, 2009 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
you dont NT guys who are worth more than u will pay him simply b/c he’s not useable… an .850 OPS is worth more than 5 million on the open market. stop being dense about this.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not being dense about this
I just don’t think there’s going to be a big market for Willingham via trade next season.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
markets are based on the value of a player
its really hard to predict the way the market will shape out for FA this offseason, but no matter what, i feel pretty confident in saying that JW’s arbitration reward will be a good couple million below his actual worth.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine
But it doesn’t mean that someone will give you anything of value for the right to pay him that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pay him what?
How much do you think he’ll get?
I think 3.75-4 sounds about right.
That’s not too crazy. I don’t think he’d be a non-tender candidate.
The slash stats are fantastic, but arbitration cases aren’t based solely on slash stats. They take into account things like “Was the guy a regular or did he accumulate the stats playing part time and only playing against pitchers where he had an advantage?” and things of this nature.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 26, 2009 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he goes to arbitration...
…he’s getting $5-6 million.
He’s making $3 million this year. He’s not going to go from $3 million to $3.75 million in arbitration.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some people do
I don’t, though.
I don’t see there being that much demand for a guy who is going to make $5-6 million in arbitration next season.
Someone might give up a Ricardo Rodriguez-type fringe/out of options/whatever type guy for him, but no one is going to give up a significant prospect to get him next offseason.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, but you still are capable of getting something for him simply because
a team would pay more for him if he was on the open market… Thats pretty simple economics
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand the economics
But you are assuming that there’s rational behavior out there, and that there is a team out there that wants him and thinks he’s underpriced and is willing to act on that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is no way Willingham will be outproduced by both Smoak and Davis next year
unless willingham regresses a ton… To expect both of those young players to hit anywhere close to an .850 OPS is a big stretch. I expect them to be good players in the future, but to expect Smoak in his first couple 100 ML ABs to do that is ludicrous, even his sensational comparisons didnt do that. Davis, Id give him about a 20-30% chance of producing that well, I think its gonna take him some good bit of time to figure out how to be a productive big leaguer b/c he’s probably always gonna strike out alot. It seems like it takes players like him some time to figure out how to be a consistently productive big leaguer and he’s still 23 this year and will be 24 next.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anywhere close to an 850 OPS?
So neither should be expected to put up, say, an 800 OPS next year?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can hope for an .800 OPS
id say id hope for a .780 OPS from Smoak, and who knows from Davis… like i said, i give him about a 20% chance of being the player we all think he can be all year next year, otherwise id say he’ll improve over the course of next year some to be near an 800 OPS hitter assuming he gets alot of ABs.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are underestimating both those guys
Particularly Davis. To say that, well, maybe he’ll get near an 800 OPS next season if he gets a lot of ABs…that’s awfully pessimistic.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I assume you're willing to pass on Sheets?
Because if we are paying Willingham $5 million, we probably aren’t going to be able to afford Sheets, as well.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there are so many variables regarding this
what do we have coming off the books next year?
Im too lazy to do a detailed study, but i know its around 20-30 million almost with Blalock+Benoit+Paddilla+Cat+Byrd.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
And you’ve got a bunch of guys getting raises, as well, next year.
I don’t think you can afford Sheets and Willingham, unless you are willing to non-tender Frankie or C.J., or something like that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much do you think Sheets will cost?
He won’t have pitched in well over a season.
Brad Penny’s contract this year from the Sox seems like it’d be too much, don’t you think?
Or do you think it’s going to cost in the 6-10mm range?
I can’t see him costing a lot.
Too many questions.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 26, 2009 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It will be very interesting...
to see what the market will be for Sheets. With him sitting out all year, and his injury history, I could see him having to accept a 1 yr/3-4 mil base sal with a lot of incentives for next season.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Jul 26, 2009 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think a .820 OPS is a very conservative suggestion
He’s improved his power and BB rate this year, he’s in his prime and his career OPS is .850. I dont think its out of line to hope for a .860-870ish ops with a .375 on base with the way he’s hit this year
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's 30
that’s outside his Prime.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
when do you think
hitters are in their prime?
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
especially for players with Old player skills
like Willingham.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
link?
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a old research
but here’s something that explains it pretty well.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
according to that
fantasy study players’ power numbers increase to 29-31. Also, according to that study hitters in their prime from 27-28. Willingham is 30 and is having a career yr. As the author states that study is not perfect. You said it is reasonable to expect a .850-.900 OPS from him yet you arguing a .860-.870 projection? Im confused….
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm worried about the old player skills
I don’t think Willingham is that predictable of a hitter, my argument is simple – he’s a guy at the tail end of his prime with a skill set that doesn’t age well. I don’t think he’s a lock for that .850-.900 OPS for next year, like many here seems to believe.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
nobody is ever a lock for anything
but if i had a choice today, Id say Willingham is more likely to end up with an OPS .850-900 than .820… Back to the players hitting their prime, I think that can be somewhat misused when you look at individual players. Its pretty obvious that Willingham is having his best year this year in almost every way to look at it, so his prime is now IMO and i dont think you can expect a huge drop off next year all of a sudden. ANyways, the idea of non-tendering a player who is likely to give you a .850 OPS and would make maybe 5 million seems really stupid.
anyways, thats just me, you can come to ur own conclusions. I think im done argueing about a player we have no idea if we’re gonna have.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Old Player Skill
guys are well known for their sudden decline, check out Travis Hafner. I think the chances for an epic collapse for a guy like Willingham is much greater than you’re forecasting.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt he collapses
every player has their risks and Willingham is Hafner who has tons of injuries, alot of players are derailed by injuries.
But going back to this non-tender thing, do you really think if he was a player on this team we’d non-tender him?
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andruw Jones
He’s only 32.
He was a superstar as recently as age 29 (2006).
He’s fallen off a cliff and he was on the certified path to the Hall of Fame.
Willingham has the same possibility there, and it’s a matter of whether you’re feeling lucky about it.
by Trickman on Jul 26, 2009 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's also played for a long, long time
i bet wear and tear and a bit of apathy had alot to do with it. Willingham hasnt even hit his first big FA contract yet… Every player is a different case once you have alot of data to look at in their career. Yes, you can project out how a career is gonna look like at certain points, but to say since most players peak at 28 and Willingham is 30 going on 31 he is going to decline is not smart. He’s producing like he’s in his prime now and to expect that to all of a sudden disappear is not reasonable.
AJ had some tailing off before he hit rock bottom last year, even his demise was somewhat forseeable.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
x
to say since most players peak at 28 and Willingham is 30 going on 31 he is going to decline is not smart.
To ignore everything we know about aging patterns isn’t smart, either.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
im not but you have to look at how a player has progressed
i mean, 31 is not considered an auto tailing off time for players. Im saying take each player as he comes too. ugh.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I seem to recall...
…hearing/reading/whatever that part of the reason Willingham has not played more the past few years is injury issues.
I could certainly be wrong, though.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
even if he's had some injuries
he’s no Hafner is all im saying
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And here's a specific Richie Sexson study
demonstrating Old Player Skills
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting article
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ibanez
I think it’s pretty clear that he’s more of an exception than anything we can commonly expect from a player. Not many guys make it to the bigs at 30 and sticks for so long and become so productive.
Sometimes, exceptions have a way of making analysts look bad.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Im an analyst for a living.
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 27, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about
Poveda, Moscosso, and someone like Moreland for Zach Duke? His K to BB ratio is stunning, and, as SaltyDawg pointed out, he’s a Texas boy. Also, Cris Davis and someone of the Kiker caliber for Willingham. Those two moves address two weaknesses and make this team appreciably better.
There is no way that LAD trades either Kershaw or Billingsley, Peter Gammons just said that Cliff Lee trade is dead. So I doubt Garko would be available.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Jul 26, 2009 6:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Zach Duke
is kinda like the lefty Scott Feldman. You’d be paying the premium for a mediocre—>servicable pitcher who has gotten quite lucky.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
by lonestarJon on Jul 26, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think that
Davis is by any means untouchable but i really dont like the idea of selling low on him.
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 26, 2009 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And you're way, way, way, way underselling Davis
unless you’re talking about somehow acquiring Arizona Catcher Kris Davis, then yes, that’s a reasonable deal.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No kidding.
.940 ops in A/AA at 21
1.029 ops in AA/AAA at 22
.886 ops in mlb at 22
1.026 ops in his brief AAA stint at 23.
Granted a .671 ops for 3 months in the mlb is far more worrying than usual since it comes with a 114:17 k:bb, but still.. if that one half season has taken him from elite prospect to minor trade piece.. might as well just hang on. Willingham is a solid player but i think it would be unwise to value him at his 09 numbers rather than his career numbers.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on Jul 26, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cris Davis and someone of the Kiker caliber for Willingham.
Are you crazy?
by tyd3311 on Jul 26, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been drinking
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Jul 26, 2009 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd burn down the internet.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 26, 2009 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Davis and Kiker for Willingham
Bleah.
I’m not all that convinced Willingham out-hits Davis over the final two months of the season.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How would you feel
About Seth Smith (now or offseason)?
by brettgardner on Jul 26, 2009 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather just roll with our own average-ish OF guys like Murphy, Borbon and eventually maybe Moreland, Smith and Gentry than pay fora guy like Smith.
He’s not young and I always worry a lot about getting guys out of Coors and expecting them to produce at similar levels.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 26, 2009 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That Cliff Lee rumor was the stupidest shit I've ever heard.
Loney sucks balls and the Dodgers were never going to deal Kershaw and especially not Billingsley.
People seem to be of the mind tha Cliff Lee is valueless.
There was a note in one of the Halladay stories about how the Phills should turn their attention to Lee, who could probably be had for Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald. Are you fucking kidding me? Carrasco and Donald? Idiots. Such dumb freaking idiots.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 26, 2009 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea, if the Dodgers had dealt Kershaw
well, i dont even know what id say. You dont deal aces who are 21 with 5 years of team control left.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 26, 2009 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are there really any bargains at this time of year?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
by RangerMad on Jul 26, 2009 7:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The A's got a really nice deal on Scott Hairston, imo.
Though many people hated that deal.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 26, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see...
…that it was that big a bargain.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, your position on the trade was well noted. It's also confusing.
Beane sent a pu-pu platter to San Diego for an underrated very productive OF’er with a cheap contract.
Hairston’s become a really good defensive LF’er now that he’s had a chance to learn the position after making the switch full time a few years back, and the bat’s really come along. He’s playing out of position as a CF’er, first some in San Diego, and now pretty much full time in Oakland, but that’s not his fault.
He’s been worth 2.3 wins this year agter being worth 1.8 last year in limited action.
He’s good and he cost very little in terms of dollars and prospects.
From Dave Cameron at Fangraphs:
When I heard that the Padres had traded Scott Hairston for Craig Italiano, Ryan Webb, and a PTBNL, my first reaction was to wonder if they were trying to tank as quickly as possible to give themselves a shot at drafting Bryce Harper. There weren’t too many other explanations that made much sense, given that Hairston was one of only two guys on the Padres roster hitting his weight and that he made a total of $1.25 million this year while not being eligible for free agency until after 2011. <SNIP> Call me crazy, but I think low cost, above average major league players should command more than a potential back-end starter and a pair of bullpen arms.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Everyone needs to drive a vehicle, even the very tall. This was the largest auto I could afford. Should I therefore be made the subject of fun?
by thedirkatron on Jul 26, 2009 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The move itself
makes a whole lot of sense taken in a vacuum, but when you have a team that’s not competing and you have several young OFs (Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Ryan Sweeney (fuck that guy)) all in need of playing time, does it make sense to waste valuable resources in order to obtain Scott Hairston?
I think the move is great, but Oakland is certainly not a Scott Hairston away from contending, I guess it’s the same analysis I would have for a Willingham trade, except X10 because the As were like 14 games out when the trade was made and should have spent more time evaluating their existing talent rather than trading for a player who will likely not be an A by the time they’re ready to contend.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 26, 2009 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if they plan on competing in 2010 and 2011
it makes plenty of sense… I dont see why its a crime to trade for a player who can help next year this year.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Jul 27, 2009 2:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hairston
I don’t see him as particularly valuable past 2010.
San Diego sold high.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 26, 2009 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
These guys are more of what I'm thinking about when it comes to improving the team at the deadline this year
Halladay/Lee just cost to goddamn much and don’t actually take care of our biggest problem (the offense).
There’s not a whole lot in the way of cheap starting pitchers out there, but I’d really like to nab Snell on the cheap (he’d probably help more next year than this year, but you never know how a change of scenery/coaching can effect a guy) and do Jamey’s deal for Willingham and call it a deadline.
"After intense analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Neftali Feliz throws fucking hard." - John Sickels
by lonestarJon on Jul 26, 2009 7:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would cry if all that happened.
Depending on the cost of Willy.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Jul 26, 2009 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crap---*wouldn't*
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Jul 26, 2009 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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