Patience at the Plate
So a lot has been made about the poor offense as of late. Since I don't watch many games due to where I live, I can't say for sure but it seems like the Rangers are not showing much patience at the plate. So I decided to look up some stats, and compare them to 2008.
2009 Swing at 1st Pitch:
According to B-Ref, the league average for swinging at the first pitch is 26% of the time (Mauer only swings at 6% of first pitches, that's crazy). The '09 Rangers have a team total of 33%. Now, that does include pitchers which is not a great way to get a good feel for plate patience for an AL team. Regardless of the pitchers, there are only three position players who fall below the league average. They are: Boggs 17%, Murphy 17%, and Vizquel 21%. None of these guys are full-time players. On the other end of the spectrum, Hamilton swings at 50% of first pitches, Byrd 41%, Salty 40%, Jones 38%, Davis 36%, and Cruz 34%.
2009 Pitches per Plate Appearance:
As far as pitches per plate appearance, the league average is 3.83 and the Rangers see 3.79 pitches (pitchers included). The only players who best the league average are: Boggs 3.89, Cruz 3.87, Davis 4.00, Jones 3.94, Murphy 4.13, Salty 3.85, and Teagarden 4.01.
2008 Swing at 1st Pitch:
For the sake of brevity, I am only going to look at those players who were on the team both in '08 and '09, though Milton Bradley will be included. League average for swinging at the first pitch was 27% and the team swung at 30% of the first pitches. Those players who were below the league average were: Boggs 20%, Salty 27%, and Teagarden 27%. Bradley swung at 39% of first pitches.
2008 Pitches per Plate Appearance:
The league average was 3.85 pitches, and the Rangers saw 3.80 pitches. The Rangers who were above the league average were as follows: Bradley 3.99, Boggs 4.33, Salty 4.36, and Teagarden 4.15.
Observations:
The 2008 Rangers were not a team that was patient with the first pitch. While the current team is also above the league average for swinging at the first pitch, the difference between the team and league average has grown by 50%. Also, both teams were below league average for pitches per plate appearance, and the difference between the two teams is negligible. So while the offense is sputtering along, they are still hacking away at the first pitch just like last season and they are not seeing a lot of pitches. My experience is limited, but it certainly feels like last year's team didn't do this. Across the board, there have been bumps in this year's team with regards to swinging at the first pitch; Salty is foremost among these players. With regards to these two stats in particular, Bradley did not stand out as much as I had expected. He jumped on a lot of first pitches, but still managed to see quite a few pitches overall. Also, Boggs is a patient hitter who can work the count, draw a walk, and play stellar defense. Too bad he has been injured.
Walks:
There is, however, a big difference with regards to walks. In '08 the league average for walks was 8.6% of the time, and the Rangers managed to draw a walk 9.2% of the time. The team leaders were: Bradley 15%, Boggs 13.2%, Vazquez 11%, Byrd 10%, and Hamilton 9.1%. In 2009, however, the league average is 8.9%, but the Rangers are only drawing a walk 7.9% of the time. The team leaders are: Jones 14%, Murphy 11.5%, and Cruz 9.4% (Kinsler is right at league average). With regards to this stat, Bradley is a beast. The problem is, however, Murphy and Jones are not going to get regular playing time, and sometimes Washington has benched Cruz for reasons I don't understand. There is no batter with regular playing time who draws a walk with regularity.
Questions:
Without looking up the exact quote, I remember some discussion about how there has been a philosophical change in the way the current Rangers approach an AB. Namely, the hitters are too aggressive and not drawing enough walks. I kind of figured that drawing more walks would mean that the hitters would stop hacking at the first pitch and work the count. As such, the walks would start to appear. However, the 2008 Rangers were not prudent at swinging at first pitch strikes, nor did the see more pitches per plate appearance than the average team. This holds true for the 2009 team (though they are swinging at more first pitches), and yet there is a big difference in walks. I believe that Adam said that this change is mostly accounted for by the departure of Bradley. Is it really that simple? This is nothing more than a cursory glance at B-Ref, am I missing something? How does this team start drawing more walks?
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18 comments
Comments
Nice post
Several things are interesting here to me:
1) Some of these guys first pitch swing numbers are just so stupid I’d start benching them for swinging at first pitches that would be balls. There is simply no reason to throw Hamilton, Salty, or Byrd a strike with the first pitch. You have a 50% chance for a free strike when you bounce a curveball in the dirt to start off the AB
2) Jones’s numbers are fascinating. He swings at the first pitch a lot, but still manages a very good walk rate. I don’t really know what this means. Also, that 14% walk rate is a good reason that the Jones-haters out there should shut up.
3) David Murphy is one of the only hitters who doesn’t aggravate me right now.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Jul 27, 2009 3:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't tell me to shut up!
I am sure AJ is off on another 0-20 slump since he hit a HR yesterday.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
by RangerMad on Jul 27, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good stuff here
one thing that really bothers me is how drastically salty has lost his ability to take a walk. even with last year’s offensive struggles he managed to be passable because his OBP was buoyed by all his walks. this year he cut his BB% in half! the question has to be asked, how did he do this? I dont want to blame it on coaching but it has to be at least a consideration. He could be such a nice player to have if he even made up half the difference – got his BB% back up around 10%.
Byrd’s decline is similarly frustrating.
I really have to wonder how much coaching factors into patience and ability to draw walks. It would be one thing if we had a whole bunch of guys with historically shitty OBPs replicating that this season. But we have a whole bunch of guys with historically mediocre OBPs putting up shitty OBPs this year.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 27, 2009 3:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good post
As for Salty. I have said this several times but his numbers don’t disturb me as much as others. When he was brought over in the Tex trade he was billed as a guy whos offensive potential was through the roof. In fact his offense would make up for his lacking defensively is what we were told. Last year that wasn’t the case IMO. Drawing walks does not make up for sub par defense like he showed last year and only hitting 3 HRs isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. I don’t know what stats may show this but from watching the games last year I can’t tell you how many times I wanted to throw my remote through the tv watching him come to bat and watch a first pitch fastball right down the pipe without so much as lifting the bat off his shoulder. It was maddening.
This year he has obviously gotten more aggressive which I personally like. The problem I see isn’t swinging at the first pitch its swinging at bad first pitches. He has shown a good eye at the plate before so its not like Chris Davis for example who you have to worry if he’ll ever be patient at the plate. Now Salty has to figure out when to be patient and when to be aggressive. Raise his OBP back up to the .350 range and his slugging will go up as well and along with his improved defense will be a very nice young (hes only 23 remember) catcher.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Jul 27, 2009 3:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be interesting
to compare this years team to the ’07 team also. They also were a good slugging team with a crappy OBP.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
by RangerMad on Jul 27, 2009 3:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
'07
Teixeira, Wilkerson, Kinsler, and Lofton all had BB% over the league average and in double digits.
Highest swing percentage at first pitch was 35%. I am too lazy to do the rest.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 27, 2009 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
it’s not so much as first pitch swinging, but swinging in 2-0, 3-1, and even 3-0 counts.
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"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Jul 27, 2009 4:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Swinging (as a team)
3-0 counts: 5% of PA, 159 3-0 counts, swung 15 times
3-1 counts: 9% of PA, 332 3-1 counts, swung 191 times
2-0 counts: 15% of PA, 486 2-0 counts, swung 239 times
The Rangers are right around league average for the percentage of PA in which their batters are 3-0, 3-1, or 2-1. B-Ref does not provide the league average for times swung unfortunately.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 27, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have stats, but.......
they swing at a lot of BAD pitches when up (2-0, 3-1, 2-1) in the count. It’s almost like they make up their mind early that they’re swinging……..What Hindman said is actually pretty true, the guys who throw strikes we can beat, but guys who are wild beat us or more to the point we beat ourselves!
by tklawless on Jul 28, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hamilton swung at 45% of first pitches last year and still managed to put up fantastic numbers.
Maybe patience just isn’t in his blood?
Gracchus (about Obama): I think he knows what America is. America is the mob. Conjure money for them and they'll be distracted. Take away their freedom and still they'll roar. The beating heart of America is not the paper of the Constitution, it's the power of the media. He'll bring them debt - and they will love him for it.
by Aquaman56 on Jul 27, 2009 4:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
That is sorta what I came to as a conclusion. Still, as a team, they are not drawing walks, even Hamilton. I have no idea why, or what could be done to ameliorate this.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 27, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very nice post Choi.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Jul 27, 2009 6:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not a simple question
I remember someone (maybe Evan Grant?) showing earlier this year the numbers for Ian Kinsler showing that he actually had better numbers when he swung at the first pitch than otherwise.
This is similar to the confusing finding that the 2008 team swung at more first pitches but walked more often. I don’t have any stats to back this up, only anecdotal evidence, but I think guys are swinging at a lot more pitches that aren’t strikes, both on the first pitch and throughout the count.
Swinging at the first pitch is great when you are keyed in a certain pitch and get it, but when guys are hacking at curves/sliders out of the zone, then you are just putting yourself in a hole or getting weak contact on a ball.
If you swing at the first pitch and end up 0-1, that’s no problem. The next pitch then is critical. If you go down 0-2, then you are in trouble, even more so since so many Rangers have such poor 2 strike approaches. I think the problem comes from guys giving pitchers extra strikes at bat after at bat. If you only have 1 strike you are more willing to take a pitch which could lead to more walks.
by jhicks83 on Jul 27, 2009 7:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
pitchers who used to throw our hitters good pitches on the first pitch stopped doing that. So while we are still swinging at the same percentage of first pitches, the quality of first pitches our hitters are receiving has gone way down.
by rangerjake on Jul 27, 2009 11:20 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Chris Davis 4+ pitches per AB
yep that’s what I’m seeing. 2 swings for a miss followed by 2 gofer balls, 1 of which he swings at
by corbsclinton on Jul 28, 2009 10:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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