One Last Thing on Matt Purke

Nothing against Purke but I think he over-valued his talent.

we get a compensatory pick. the blow to the org is limited.

I agree.

We won’t likely pick a player as good as Purke with the comp pick, but we will likely pick a player comparable to a player we could have taken this year that didn’t have signability issues.

But I basically agree with you.

I don’t really buy the player valuation algorithms you see on Fangraphs and BtB, and the like. But ultimately there is some $ value to performance conversion. But what people often forget is that you have to factor in risk and present day value. For a HS pitcher like Purke, maybe there is a 10% chance he becomes a TORG type pitcher, and a 30% chance on top of that that he becomes a good, though not great, major leaguer. In either case, the $4 million, or $6 million even, would be a good investment – an exceptional one if he TORGed. But there is a 50-60% chance with almost any HS kid that in 5 years we’d look back on that bonus as a lost cause.

Ultimately, paying off bonuses like this is a risk/reward calculation. And if you really consider that most of the reward upside is contained within a 10% chance of exceptional success, it probably isn’t worth paying out $6 million (especially since funds are limited, so that risk you would have bought with Purke can’t be spread out elsewhere, say on that $500K Perez kid they signed today). It is fully reasonable that $4 million was their threshold. Even that could be argued to be excessive for a HS pitcher. Really, what the Rangers did with Beavan, Main, and NeRa was a better strategic move (obviously possible due to the # of picks).

While the overall numbers don’t look good for most players contributing, that is the result of other teams doing a poor job of scouting or drafting in the first place. Take a look at Jason Castro last year with the Astros. Lets say he never has much of a professional career and ends up as only a back-up player. He’d go down as another statistic describing how risky even 1st round picks are, but the reality is that it was an overdraft by the Astros and/or bad scouting on their part. With the bonus demands of players now, signability also plays a part. So while the draft is an expensive crapshoot, the teams that scout players well and draft accordingly are going to beat the odds very often.

thats the part i really dont get, its the reason other passed, i just dont see how you are 3M apart at the end of the other day. how does that happen?

I know baseball players get ass in college, but wow.

If healthy Scheppers should make it through the farm fast.

Here.

“It’s a business and they made a decision they thought was best for their ownership,” Lawrence Purke said. "We were very happy to be a part of it.

“We told all 30 teams in the beginning what it would take and at the midnight hour, Aug. 17, the Texas Rangers and Matthew were not able to agree.”

While Purke acknowledges there is no animosity between the Rangers and his family, he said he was very open with Texas officials from the moment the process began.

“We said at the beginning we wanted a deal similiar to (those given to Detroit Tigers pitcher) Rick Porcello and (Boston Red Sox pitcher) Josh Beckett,” Lawrence Purke said. "We are talking (about contacts worth) around $7.2 million to $7.5 million.

“We mean what we say and we say what we mean.”

Purke said he and his son came away from the process with great respect for the Texas Rangers.

“It’s every player’s dream to be a part of a process like that and we are grateful to the Rangers and their organization,” Lawrence Purke said.