New Top 20 Prospects column (and Mitch Williams on Feliz)
by Jamey Newberg on Aug 6, 2009 8:34 AM CDT
65 comments
The latest installment of my weekly ranking of the top 20 prospects in the Rangers’ farm system was posted this morning on the official Rangers website, www.texasrangers.com.
Here’s a direct link to the column:
This week’s also includes a three-minute segment from MLB Network in which Mitch Williams breaks down Neftali Feliz’s delivery mechanics. Worth checking out.
Also, please note that the column is set up to allow fan comments at the bottom of the page.
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It's really strange that someone thinks of Mitch Williams as an expert on pitching mechanics.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
by rooster on Aug 6, 2009 9:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
But he does have a point. If that wouldn’t mess up his current mechanics I can’t see how hiding the ball a bit longer would do anything BUT help. And if it added just 1-2 mph on his velocity with the added torque…sheesh!
What's the rumpus?
by Hypo-Luxa on Aug 6, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I'm not sure I understand his concerns about the leg kick.
He starts off by saying something about reducing the number of moving parts for a young kid, taking him out of the windup, etc. Then he suggests adding something to his delivery. If it ain’t broke, I’m not sure I’d fix it, and given the concerns over Feliz’ control during his minor league career, why change his delivery if his control has improved lately?
It would be a minor change, though, so my concern is probably unwarranted. Other opinions?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Aug 6, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It does seem
like if you can throw it 100 with less moving parts, why wouldn’t you? Unless of course you can take strain off the elbow or shoulders with a newer delivery.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Aug 6, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't watch what Jamey posted, but I did watch last night as MLB network cut to Feliz pitching to Kennedy.
Before the at bat, Mitch was talking about Feliz kicking a little higher (maybe 3-6 inches) so that he throws more downhill. As he is drawing on the screen on a replay, they show another live shot of Feliz.. Sure enough, bye bye baseball. Mitch looked like a goddamn fucking genius. The fastball plained out (stayed flat), and Kennedy rocked the mic. I wonder what Universe I fell into that had Mitch fricking Williams as a smart and relevant commentator. +1 for the mullet-less Wild Thing.
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
by Parman on Aug 6, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
192 career saves
12+ mil career earnings, dummy.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Aug 6, 2009 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mechanics
Maybe someone who knows more about mechanics can comment here, but I thought Feliz’s problem in the minors was holdings runners. If so, the quick delivery seems like an improvement. Why would he want a higher leg kick? He already throws 100+. The higher leg kick seems like it could throw him off balance and mess with his accuracy. Also, it gives the batter a way to time the pitcher and time to start his swing. I like the idea that Feliz goes from a set position to 100 mph with as little movement and in as short of a time as possible.
by Jack Nicholson 1974 on Aug 6, 2009 10:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
exactly
And, in one minute he says that they’ve done a great job of reducing all those moving parts by putting him in the stretch (bullpen) vs windup then Mitch Williams goes on to say, now all I wish they would do is add more movement in his delivery….hmmm. No thanks
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Aug 6, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Purke and Scheppers
I know you can’t add these guys until they sign, but would Purke at least be inserted into the #5 spot ahead of Kiker? And does Goldstein/Carroll’s opinion on Scheppers’ arm give you pause on adding him in the top 7-8?
I guess I’m a bit down on Kiker (spoiled by our prospect depth is more like it), but if he’s our #5, that kind of bums me out. I would hope that guys like Max, Boscan, Beavan and even Moreland would be better. But again, all I see in Kiker’s future is a servicable LOOGY
What's the rumpus?
by Hypo-Luxa on Aug 6, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Personal opinion
But I think Beavan will pass Kiker if he can start striking more guys out. Also, Max absolutely has the ability to move into the top 5 (minus Purke/Scheppers) if he hits similarly to how he did in AA for the rest of the season in AAA. Then again, if he hits how he did in AA, he’d probably get called up pretty quickly.
Finally, realize how much talent has been graduated to the majors in the last 4-5 months.
by GhettoBear04 on Aug 6, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless lightning strikes Beavan
and he figures something out, I think he may go the way of Diamond. He has been a fairly poor performer as a pro.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Aug 6, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
A 20 year old who makes it to AA and holds his own, albeit with low K totals, is a “poor performer”?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Aug 6, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he has performed well
in the extremely hitter friendly Cal League, he fared quite well. He has back-end of the rotation potential. He is a guy that can hit his spots and many times that is a better pitcher than someone who throws harder and can’t hit his. location, location, location. He’s got that.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Aug 6, 2009 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh...not really.
His ERA hasn’t been that good this year, but the FIP’s have actually been getting better. The precipitous dropoff in strikeouts is worrying, but pretty much everything else has been good.
2008 (A): 2.37 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 5.40 K/9, 1.48 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, .256 BABIP
2009 (A+): 4.30 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 6.26 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 0.74 HR/9, .307 BABIP
2009 (AA): 4.83 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 3.00 K/9, 1.00 BB/9, 0.17 HR/9, .339 BABIP
Assuming his BABIP regresses to normal, I could see him being viewed as an equal though different prospect to Kiker by the end of the year. If he gets his K/9 back up to the 5.5-6.0 range, I think he passes him.
by GhettoBear04 on Aug 6, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kiker in my mind is still more useful
and should be rated higher. we can say all day, how if this guy strikes out more he’ll be higher, but then you can turn it the other way, and say if this guy walks less he would be higher.
Kiker has more use because he can be a good bullpen arm, especially as a lefty, if needed. Beavan has to make it in the rotation. And, he is a back-end type.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Aug 6, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea, his FIP is very nice
his HR rates wont stay like that, but I also have to think his K-rates can rise back into the range you suggested.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Aug 6, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really have trouble
seeing him being a frontline starter with K/9s around 6 in the minors. He would have to come pretty far pretty fast to make it going forward. In a system where we have as many K/9 guys of 9+, its tough to see him not being bypassed.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Aug 6, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fair...
..but I think he and Kiker are in the next wave, so it will take some very, very good seasons from some of the low A/A guys to pass them on the list. Not that it’s impossible as Perez and Font have shown.
I’m not sure that either Kiker or Beavan are viewed as TORP’s, but I still think they could be valuable SP’s for the Rangers.
by GhettoBear04 on Aug 6, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Kiker, Beavan, and Hunter
are those valuable innings eaters slotted at 4 and 5 in a good rotation.
08/03/2009 A day that will live in infamy for the rest of the AL West.
by Michael Cave on Aug 6, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beaven isnt gonna be a frontline starte
i can agree with that for sure, but i definitely think he could be a very valueable pitcher for us down the road. When you walk one guy per nine you have to have something going for you
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Aug 6, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way
Beavan is not over age for his league and having control and health issues, no comp with Diamond. His K rate sucks.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Aug 6, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If anything Beavan is the next Feldman.
Which is just as unexciting, IMO.
J.P. can take Roy Halladay and shove him up his ass. I’ll take Derek Holland. - AJM
Rangers can no hit curve ball. Straight ball, they hit it very much. Curve ball, bats are inept.
by lonestarJon on Aug 6, 2009 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His list
is more of a hot sheet/player ranking hybrid, so players who aren’t playing would have issues getting up high, unless they had been up high previously.
Its not a pure ranking of prospects. A guy with a hot couple weeks may rank higher than his prospect status.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Aug 6, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see worst case scenario is another CJ Wilson
I just don’t get the Kiker hate by so many people. Had he gone to college he probably wouldn’t have even signed his pro contract yet after being drafted this past June and yet hes in AA probably ready for a promotion to AAA.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Aug 6, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
His biggest problem is his BB/9.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Aug 6, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and hit batters
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Aug 6, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why we would rank these players in our system
since they are not yet in our system. Purke, who has very high bonus demands and has already been rumored to be headed to school seems unlikely to sign at this point. I still hold out hope that we sign both Purke and Scheppers and they can stay healthy, but I am also aware of the possibility that we draft these guys because of their lack of signability. Of the two, Scheppers seems more likely to sign, but is still going to take well above slot.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Aug 6, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
x
Purke, who has very high bonus demands and has already been rumored to be headed to school seems unlikely to sign at this point.
I have not heard that he’s unlikely to sign. Everything I’ve heard/read indicates he’ll probably sign at about 11:00 p.m. on August 17.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 6, 2009 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same thing Ive heard
That they knew what his demands were, etc and feel confident he will sign.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Aug 7, 2009 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like Jamwy is
expecting Smoak to get a cameo in Arlington this Sept. If that doesn’t cause any problems with the 40 then lets go for it.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Aug 6, 2009 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather wait till next May.
To avoid the 40 hassle, to have another year of Smoak so that he doesn’t get expensive with Elvis, Holland, etc, but mainly because I’m not sure the upgrade he would bring is worth the extra year of service time. If we were in this position with MaxRam, I think the benefit would be worth the cost of a year. But maybe that’s me lowering my expectations on the season after this Oakland road trip/seeing this offense away from RBiA.
by GhettoBear04 on Aug 6, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good lord
didnt we learn with elvis this year…if a guy is ready to be a MLB player, fucking play him
worry about that shit when you need to
by Horns130 on Aug 6, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm no
In this day and age of baseball if holding a prospect back a couple weeks gives you control over that player an extra year a smart organization is going to do it. I think Elvis was a special case this year mainly due to the circumstances surrounding his position. But I guarantee you in the winter of 2014 if Elvis, at age 26, leaves in FA we will be looking back at this year and wondering why we didn’t wait a couple weeks.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Aug 6, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
idk
they wouldve caught so much shit for moving young off short but starting elvis in the minors
some people wouldve understood it but they wouldve taken a pretty big pr hit and risked upsetting both young and andrus
go here to view my blog: http://dirtfromd.blogspot.com
by studcrackers on Aug 6, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats exactly the special circumstances I am talking about
With Smoak we have a viable guy at 1B and we can float someone at DH for a couple weeks
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Aug 6, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to look at how it helps your team.
Elvis provided such a defensive upgrade right from the start that he didn’t even have to hit that well to be more valuable at that spot the Michael Young, especially when you consider that Young would then replace the awful, awful defense at 3rd. There was a significant upgrade to be had.
Realistically, will Smoak be able to provide better than what you’re getting from 1B right now? Hopefully, but that’s not guaranteed. It took him some time to adjust to AAA hitting and he’s just now getting back into the swing of things. It would be reasonable to expect him to need time to adjust to major league hitting also, and more time than it would take if he truly mastered AAA pitching first. The upgrade is very unlikely to be as much as with Elvis, and when you consider the value it adds to wait another 2.5 months to bring him up (more development time, smoother transition, contract status, ‘not upsetting the clubhouse’, etc) I’m just not sure if it would be worth it.
I’m not sure I’d trust whatever JD wants to do in this situation since they have been a little too aggressive with promotions in some cases (Borbon), but he and the FO know a hell of a lot more about what to expect out of these players than I do. So, if they think it’s time, so be it…
by GhettoBear04 on Aug 6, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Borbon
Borbon looks to get significant service time, not necessarily playing time, this year otherwise we would be faced with the same situation with him as well.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Aug 6, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I am remembering incorrectly...
…but didn’t JD say Main was already in Arizona?
by FuturePants on Aug 6, 2009 10:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He went home to FL
to recuperate.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Aug 6, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand.
What I meant was, at Newberg Report Night on Sunday I"m pretty sure JD said Main was back in Arizona. Jamey’s column said he was still in Florida.
by FuturePants on Aug 6, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB Network...
should have Williams, and a couple other former players, do more spots like that. I’m not sure I really agree with him that Feliz needs more deception in his delivery, but it was still an interesting take on it.
Williams is just not good when sitting on the set talking about games and doing highlights.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Aug 6, 2009 11:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No comment about Fin this time?
After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL
by hinduplaya on Aug 6, 2009 12:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It was suggested by more than one of you that that bit was getting stale.
by Jamey Newberg on Aug 6, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasnt your bit that was stale, it was your lists
If you want to read a decent prospect list look for mine in the next few days. I’m back!
by Finnerty.Fan on Aug 6, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Promises Promises
I think your not posting is one of the reasons the Rangers have been in a funk lately.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Aug 6, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
kabooooom!!
hahaha
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Aug 6, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yay!!
I love reading your lists in my Ribbie Paultz voice…
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
by bking on Aug 6, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think i might have just started this all over again
heh
After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL
by hinduplaya on Aug 6, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont give yourself too much credit
by Finnerty.Fan on Aug 6, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
x
Dont give yourself too much credit
lol maybe you should think about what you just said
After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL
by hinduplaya on Aug 6, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you that bored?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Aug 6, 2009 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a banner day for internet disease!
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
by Keynes on Aug 6, 2009 3:47 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, so...
Finnerty.Fan=Internet Herpes ?
by GhettoBear04 on Aug 6, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha....wow
Even Internet Herpes doesn’t want to be associated with Finnerty.Fan
by GhettoBear04 on Aug 7, 2009 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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