Rangers Minor League Review: Closing Out The 2009 Season

David Brown conducts his end-of-year minor league review.

5 months ago Joey Matschulat 50 comments 0 recs |

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I'm oddly concerned about the relative dearth of position players in the system.

I know this is illogical, because high ceiling bats rarely appear out of nowhere but can appear by way of trading nifty pitchers (which the team has plenty of), but it seems that other than maybe Moreland no one really forced their way into the high minors picture. Telis seems like the brightest star, but he’s way off.

I shouldn’t be worried about this, because the drop in position players is partly due to graduation (Davis, Borbon, Tea, Andrus) and to a conscious focus on drafting/acquiring high-ceiling pitching, but it’s a little frustrating to lack this sort of upper level positional depth outside of 1b. Because really, where does this team go if a Young, Kinsler, or key outfielder gets hurt next year?

I only say this because I want people to say the glass really is more than half full and that I should ignore this empty part…

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Sep 10, 2009 2:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you can say its is more than half full

But the good news is that we don’t really need any position players now. The OF and IF is set for the next few years at least. We are still wondering about the catcher position and 1B is a bit of a toss up, but the rest of the position players on this team should be expected to be here for the next 3-4 years if not more. And if you don’t remember how things can change in just a few years, take a look back at the Rangers minor league system before 2006 and take a look at it before 2009.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Sep 10, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be fair

much of the restocking was due to the Teix trade. I hope we won’t be seeing anything like that in the next few years, so it will be near impossible to have such a huge influx of premium minor league talent resulting from one deal.

"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out

by tricer on Sep 10, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re-stocking the farm

I agree completely that it is much more difficult for contending teams to maintain strong farm systems because it is difficult to trade veterans for prospects at the trade deadline and they draft later in the first round. But if the Rangers are able to build upon and sustain their cache of quality starting pitchers, I wonder if we might not see the team begin to trade their veteran pitchers as they near free agency for high upside prospects in the lower minors?

If things go well, it is easy to imagine the team coming out of spring training 2011 with a rotation of Feliz, Holland, Perez, Main, and Poveda (or Harrison or Hurley or Nippert or Moscoso, etc) and being able to trade Feldman and Hunter for a decent package of prospects. If the team continues to focus on player development and benefitsfrom a bit of luck, this is a model that could sustain itself for a very long time.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you want 2/5 of your rotation in 2011

to be rookies. Plus a 5th SP. Is that really a playoff contending rotation?

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year

by RangerMad on Sep 10, 2009 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

How about trading Feldman and Hunter (or whomever is deemed surplus)entering the 2012 season?

The point I was trying to make is not so much about who gets traded when but rather that a team with a deep rotation and prospects who are ready to pitch in the majors can use their surplus veterans to replenish their minor league system.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

couple other things

Keep in mind that the model now is for the Rangers to break in rookie SPs through the bullpen. Perez and Main might make thier debuts in 2011, but it is unlikely out of ST as a SP.

Also, I could see the Rangers trading Feldman at the dealine in 2011. It would depend on his productivity, his desire to test FA and if thier is someone ready to take his rotation spot.

Also on Feldman. If his 2010 is similar to this year, should the Rangers try to lock him up for 2-3 yrs?

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year

by RangerMad on Sep 10, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

First of all Feldman won't be a FA until after the 2012 season

I would look into signing him to a extension THIS winter. I think you could easily get him to agree to a 4 yr/ 18-20 million dollar deal. Pitchers don’t normally get big arbitration figures especially their first year. I would think he will get 1.5-2 in arb this winter. Signing the deal I proposed you could spread it out as 3,4,5,6 million over the four years which would buy out his first FA year at only 6 million dollars but would increase his initial arbitration by 50-100%

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 10, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to say this winter but

with Hicks financial situation I don’t think they sign anyone to a multi-year deal. Another reason not to lock him up this winter is that you want to make sure this year isn’t a fluke.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year

by RangerMad on Sep 10, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're costing yourself money and hes a year closer to FA if you wait

Cost certainty is a very attractive thing for a potential buyer. If Feldmans season isn’t a fluke (like I don’t think it is) then next winter he is probably looking at a raise somewhere in the 5 million dollar range. Any extension will most likely have to start there and go up. So the 4/18 you could possibly get him at this winter would turn into a 3/ 20 along with the 1.5 million you paid him in 2010. Yeah its only 4-5 million over a 3 year span but that could be money you use to keep one of the other young guys.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 10, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can see that as a possibility

But in all frankness, Feldman and Hunter have shown something that none (with the possible exception of Feliz) of the others have: the ability to get major league hitters out. Holland, for all his luster, has been up and down this year, and there is no reason to think that those other kids aren’t going to have the same sort of road bumps. Basically, this team will be lucky if even three of those five you list there are rotation locks in 2012. I don’t think you can just dismiss the guys we have now just because they have lower ceilings, because there is substantial value. Bird in the hand, you know?

That said, I think going forward – specifically next year – the Rangers have to be looking very hard at this top flight of pitchers and asking “is this guy a guy we want to go with”. If they can say that they’re confident about 4 of them (or if a Hurley or Harrison forces their way back into the picture), then I think your suggestion of flipping a Feldman for a solid hitter is a good one (because he could net a solid prospect or two back).

But at the same time, if the Rangers look at Main or Beavan or even a Perez and say “I don’t think we can rely on this guy” for whatever reason, then they’ll have to consider switching out some of this high ceiling pitching talent for high ceiling hitters. They wouldn’t get full value in return (there is a reason a Feldman could return a better prospect than Holland could right now), but packaged with a Harrison/Hurley/Nippert type who has shown some effectiveness in the past, they could get something decent back too.

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Sep 10, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re-stocking the farm

I agree that it is more difficult to restock the farm, but I wouldn’t say much more difficult. Teams like Boston, and it seems, TX if they can continue to afford it, are using aggressive international free agency programs to make up some of the gap for not having guys to trade and drafting later. And even in the draft some guys always fall and good scouting can uncover steals in later rounds.

I believe the Rangers have strong enough scouting and a strong enough Latin American program to keep the system strong, though they won’t likely have any gigantic trades bringing 5 guys in on the deal. But you don’t have to if you draft guys like Tullis in the 8th round and sign guys like Martin Perez.

Even with a guy like Teixeira to trade, Daniels had to have good timing, willing trade partners with top prospects in a contention window and good negotiation skills. None of it is easy, so I think teams that are winning and thus drafting later just have to be aggressive in different ways than teams looking to trade big chips for prospects. The hardest part may be restraining the urge to trade away prospects for someone like Halladay even if the price is too high.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Sep 10, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Tex trade helped

9 of the Rangers top 10 prospects (according to BA) before this season were guys not from the Tex trade and that system was pretty clearly seen as the best in baseball. If the farm system ever got in terrible shape again, making a trade like that one would be a huge boost in turning it around. Since we’re talking about just adding quality depth from this point forward and not seeing the system weaken dramtically in the near future, JD just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Sep 10, 2009 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Without going back to look

Elvis and Feliz weren’t both in BA’s top ten?

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Sep 10, 2009 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Feliz #1
Andrus #4

Beltre and MaxRam were also both in the Top 10 a year after arriving via dealine trades the year before.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for having solid hitting prospects but

it’s not a huge need.

C-Salty, Tea, Max
1B-Davis,Smoak
2B-Kinsler
3B-Young – Won’t move for at least 2 years
SS-Elvis
OF-Hamilton, Borbon, Cruz (could be traded) – Extras in Murphy/Boggs – might resign Byrd – Have high profile in Beltre

Our future for the next 3+ years is set except for 3B and OF. I would say COF is the easiest position to fill.

by Coolbean04 on Sep 10, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

solid hitting prospects are valuable whether you need them or not

You can trade one for CC Sabathia, like Milwaukee did last year, or Matt Holiday like St. Louis did this year.

"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out

by tricer on Sep 10, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I share your concern.

The Rangers are a little better depth wise in the OF than IF. They will likely sign another German type of IF next year and stash him at OKC. They could even resign German to a minor league deal.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year

by RangerMad on Sep 10, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Middle infield depth is frighteningly thin

The failures of Duran, Vallejo, and Arias in 2009 have created a real problem for 2010. It would not surprise me to see the team swap a AAA pitcher or two (Kiker, Kirkman, Poveda, Moscoso) for another team’s surplus upper minor infielder this offseason.

The team’s inability to bring in a solid 3B prospect despite using 2nd round picks in three recent drafts is puzling given their ability to acquire and develop quality players at seemingly every other position.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

middle infield depth is pretty thin for nearly every team

If you go around the league and look at top prospect lists, you see very, very few true SS prospects, and not a lot of top 2b prospects either. I agree that this is a problem for Texas, but it is also a problem for most teams.

That’s one reason I was excited to see that the team is serious about leaving Profar at SS. Legit middle infield prospects are probably about as valuable as top SP prospects, maybe even moreso when you look at the systems around the league.

"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out

by tricer on Sep 10, 2009 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Miquel Velazquez

I think he will be our next position prospect to crack the top 100.

"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out

by tricer on Sep 10, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Velazquez

His statistical profile and scouting reports are great. He and Telis are the two position players that I hope will step to the front next year.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Telis could be

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Sep 10, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kiker was only in AA not AAA

Don’t know how that would affect things.

Velazquez: I’ll keep an eye on him but his age makes me temper my enthusiasm just a bit

watch out for Richard Alvarez folks!!

Good stuff once again David

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 10, 2009 2:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for catching the Kiker typo

The calculations for Kiker were all based upon him being in AA. I just made a mistake in transferring the data into the table.

I love talking prospects because we all bring our personal biases into predicting the future. You are right to question Velazquez’ production due to his age (I certainly did that with a few players), but I am more willing to give him a pass because this is essentially his first year of organized ball since high school and he has the tools to sustain and improve his production through the upper minors. I agree with Tricer that Velazquez could be the top-ranked position prospect in the Rangers’ system next year.

After tracking his starts early in the season, I stopped paying attention because his numbers were consistently mediocre. When his name popped out among the system’s leaders, I took a closer look and had to admit that there are very few 16 year olds who could do what he did this year. In theory, the progress that he makes in the next two years should be greater than any other player in the system because of the physical and mental advances that he should make.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

with a 3.21 GB/FB ratio, 2.1 BB/9 innings, and a 9.2 k/ 9 innings

is it safe to say that Robbie Ross is a breakout candidate for 2010 along with Wilmer Font.

After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL

by hinduplaya on Sep 10, 2009 2:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

For what it is worth,

I like Ross more than Font. Font has the higher upside, but I fear that his flyball tendencies and control problems are going to keep him from becoming a productive major league pitcher.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't Ross older than Font?

Its truly amazing how young some of these guys are

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 10, 2009 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Font is almost a year younger than Ross and what I consider to be approximately one half of a level above him. Because Ross has very good command of his slider and fastball and appears to have the makings of a decent change-up, I think that he can be successful in High A next season. If Font can’t command his fastball next season, he could have a rough year in Bakersfield. It would not surprise me if Ross finishes next year in Frisco while Font continues to work on his game in high A.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You think Ross starts in Bakersfield?

That would be real aggressive.

As for Font I wouldn’t be suprised if he starts off at Hickory and then pulls a Holland and goes to Bakersfield for a month or so and then onto Frisco.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 10, 2009 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Rangers have been very agrressive with their pitching prospects

Among the top 20 pitching prospects in the system entering 2009, Tim Murphy and Guillermo Moscoso were the only starters who began the season pitching in a league where they were less than a year older than the average player. Ross will be 20.8 years old at the beginning of the 2010 season. The average age of players in the SAL will be ~21.5. The average age of players in the Cal league will be ~22.5. Assuming the Rangers remain true to form, the team will challenge Ross with a starting assignment in the Cal League.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent Read

Great to put all players on equal ground to evaluate them.

"Purity of heart is to will one thing" - Kierkegaard

by outofnace on Sep 10, 2009 2:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

One question regarding your methodology for adjustments:

What evidence exists to justify the 7 points per year above/below league average age (and similar position dependent adjustments)?

I think its neat to rank the performance with a single number. The ranking corresponds pretty well to my intuitive sense of who’s done well. The surprises, IMO, are HOW WELL Feliz and Telis did.

Can you include Danny Gutierrez? SSS, I know, if you only use 2009 numbers. He might pop up around the Perez/Kiker level.

Also, I’m not as sold on Kiker being taken out of the rotation as you are. Gotta give him a couple more years as a starter to see if he can refine his control before I start thinking about making him the next CJ.

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Sep 10, 2009 3:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I did a study earlier this year that indicated that prospects improve their performance numbers by an average of 7-10 percent per year. The age adjustment that I use assumes that a player who is one year younger than league average would have performance numbers that were 7% higher than they actually were. A player who is one year older than league average gets a 7% decrease. It is a crude adjustment, but one that accounts for age relative to league, which I consider to be one of the strongest indicators of future performance.

I will try to get to Gutierrez this evening, though I suspect that he is not going to rank among the Rangers Top 10 pitchers in 2009 performance. That is not suggest that he is not among the team’s top 10 pitching prospects.

It seems to me that minor league pitchers with suspect control have k-rates that are disproportionately high relative to pitchers with good control since hitters are more likely to try to work a walk by taking pitches against a pitcher with poor control. It would not surprise me if Kiker’s strikeout rate drops and his BAA rises if and when he lowers his walk and HBP rates.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's pretty nifty.

It depends if you put Gutierrez with the relievers or the starters. His WHIP was pretty low and SO/9 was pretty high, even if he was about league-average age.

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Sep 10, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gutierrez' score is 138

The score is very impressive for a starting pitcher and good for a reliever. It’s hard to know what to do with that score since it derives from 4 starts and 4 relief appearances spanning 27 innings in High A. I did not add his 5 AA innings.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok. I was thinking it would be about that high.

I agree with the confusion on how to rank it. But, he had a good year last year as a 21-yo starter in the Midwest League (5th highest K/9, in fact). I think it makes sense to view him next to the other starters.

He needs to build up innings this next year, so he’s probably 2 years away from a ML starter caliber season, but I could see him learning the ropes in the ML bullpen late in the year next year.

BTW, your overall performance measure…. That is calculated as (WHIP* + SO/9*)/2 + age_adjustment?

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Sep 10, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The formula you have is correct except that there is also a penalty for pitchers who are repeating a level.

by spurdynasty on Sep 10, 2009 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW, thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers on Gutierrez.

I think the Rangers have a really good prospect on their hands, probably better than most others realize. If he’s at all coachable, his ceiling may not be Feliz, but it could be in the top half of a ML rotation.

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Sep 10, 2009 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs