Worst Case Scenario Thoughts
by kentbenfer on Sep 12, 2009 2:58 PM CDT
36 comments
After reading the TR Sullivan article and the Revo article yesterday and today and thinking about where this thing is heading, it got me to think about the worst case scenario if MLB is in full control this offseason.
Worst case scenario:
*Millwood's option doesn't vest - is this really going to be so terrible? Sure MLB will have a huge fight on their hands, as they should, with MLBPA but the Rangers won't really be too much a part of that. And if Millwood's not back next year we will be ok.
*We cannot pursue any free agents, including Byrd - Let's be realistic. We probably weren't going to be huge players in the top guys anyway. We probably, once again, are destined to pursue reclamation projects, or guys who are at a low point and need to come here to rebound, like Ben Sheets. As for Byrd, we already have too many outfielders as it is. If they resign Byrd they are going to have to trade probably either Murphy or Cruz to have enough ABs to go around (or Hamilton). We lose a huge asset in the clubhouse but we would probably survive on the field.
*MLB forces us to dump Michael Young - This would not be good but we would be moving him at a point when his value figures to be pretty high. If we are ever going to be able to move Young with that albatross of a contract, this offseason might be the best time. If this happens, then don't we just move Davis to third (we don't really lose anything defensively, right?) and bring Smoak up to play first.
*Scheppers doesn't sign - This one would be another blow but there are still serious doubts out there about his health.
*Daniels and/or Nolan leave - Don't really want to think about either of these things, especially Daniels but if I was told to tear up what I had been building, I would leave, wouldn't you?
What else am I missing that MLB could force us to do? Who else would they force us to dump? If they make us do these things above we have gotten rid of all of our huge contracts (plus we lose Blalock and Padilla's salaries after this year) but we still would have a pretty decent team. Maybe not the odds-on favorite to win the division but still a pretty interesting team. Thoughts?
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I don't care about Byrd
He’s having a career year, and has zero track record before now. I also wouldn’t lose sleep over Millwood. He’s had a terrible second half, and a flukey all around year. In fact, I would love for him to be DL’d right now.
Face is an enigma. This already mediocre offense would look even worse without his bat. That being said, if they could get value back for him — a stud AA or AAA CF or highly regarded 3b prospect — I wouldn’t mind that. I would hate to see Davis at 3rd. Just because MY set the bar so low, doesn’t mean the Rangers should only aspire to tread water at that position defensively.
If all of that happens, there’s a distinct possibility that Ian Kinsler will be the highest paid Ranger at $3.2 million (that’s what he’s making this year, I’m too lazy to look up whether or not he gets a raise next year).
Not signing Tanner would break my heart. And possibly my hymen.
Obviously, the roster will shape up very different next year. Besides Hank, Marlon, Padilla, and (hopefully) Milly coming off the books; there won’t be Omar, AJ, Pudge, or Eddie types. They’ll have to go young and cheap for the reserves, and try and find Eric Gunderson types to fill out the pen.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Sep 12, 2009 3:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Really, I don't care about Milly, Byrd, or other FAs
but your later worries are what I would be concerned about as well.
But like I said in the other thread. I can see MLB thinking that it would be a conflict of interest to help the team cover new, very high salaries/bonuses (like Purke), but I don’t see them forcing the Rangers to dump salary either.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Sep 12, 2009 3:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
btw
I think M’s defense has been about lg avg in the 2nd halsf which is much better than what CD could do at 3B.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 12, 2009 3:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What if they end up
trading arbitration eligible players that are due for salary increases too? Like Feldman?
by MikeEl on Sep 12, 2009 3:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
C.J. and Frankie would be more likely
Along with Ian Kinsler.
If you really wanted to slash payroll, those three would be the ones to be dealt, not Michael Young, who isn’t really tradeable with his contract.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 12, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If MLB forced the Rangers to slash payroll by trading Young
wouldn’t they force some team to take him?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 12, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They can't force some other team to take him
they have no leverage with other teams
by tyd3311 on Sep 12, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand why people keep saying move Davis to 3B
The downgrade defensively from Young to Davis would be substantial.
Davis isn’t a third baseman.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 12, 2009 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not advocating it
I’m saying that this is a worst-case scenario. If we are made to dump Young and we can’t go out and add anyone, then Davis becomes the 3B by default, pretty much.
"Thank God for Feldman." - Ron Washington to Eric Nadel, August 2008
by kentbenfer on Sep 12, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably not
The Rangers probably go find someone else to play third base. Or bring Esteban German back to play third base.
Davis isn’t capable of playing third base defensively in the majors on an everyday basis.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 12, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't really matter
because there’s no way MY gets traded. Even if they’re thinking of it as a salary dump, the consequent loss in attendance and fan base wouldn’t really justify it.
by MikeEl on Sep 12, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
The ~$20M or so they save in salary easily gets lost in the decline in attendance, merchandise sales, etc.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 12, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it
I don’t think losing Young costs the team $20 million in profits.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 12, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it may not equal the full $20mil
but I think the difference would be big enough to not make it worth it.
by MikeEl on Sep 12, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno
If there’s one thing I’ve learned as a Ranger fan this season, it’s never fail to underestimate the popularity of Michael Young. Both the media and the fanbase love and overrate the guy to sometimes distgusting porportions – you dump him after a career season in which he pretty much carried an offensively dead team over the summer, the fanbase and the media backlash is going to be massive. Akin to the Yankees suddenly dumping Jeter, only on a DFW-scale instead of a New York one.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 12, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that's the case...
…and losing Young would cost the Rangers that much money, then we should stop bitching about the contract, because in that case the contract is a pretty good deal for the Rangers, not an albatross.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 12, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I don't think that makes the contract a "good" deal for the Rangers
A necessary evil perhaps, but not a good deal.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 12, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because we're paying him 16 Mil per year
And until this year he wasn’t worth that. And considering he’s 32 and probably not going to have any seasons that are better than this one…
It was a bad deal when we signed it, and still is. We just can’t get rid of it without creating an undesirable amount of backlash at this point.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 12, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is not $16M per year
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 12, 2009 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to Cots it is (plus 15 mil deferred of course)
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 12, 2009 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe
it is $13M/yr ($65M) with $15M deffered. There was also a report last year or so that he may have gotten a $5M bonus when he signed in 3/07. That does make some sense. That means his ’08 salary was $10M and not $5M.
If all is true, then his 09-13 salary is “only” $12M which is easier to trade then $16M.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 15, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But if trading him would cost the Rangers that many millions...
…in lost profits because of the fan backlash, then it is a good deal.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 13, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how you're arriving at that conclusion from what I said
But whatever.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 13, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sounds good to me.
At least until he stops playing at a high level…
by MikeEl on Sep 12, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Combing his defense with his hitting at 3rd
he would probably have one of the worst WARs of all time
by tyd3311 on Sep 12, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Byrd resigns
we do have to trade an outfielder, though, right? And would not the odds-on-favorite to go right now have to be Hamilton?
"Thank God for Feldman." - Ron Washington to Eric Nadel, August 2008
by kentbenfer on Sep 12, 2009 4:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Hamilton goes anywhere
They’re not gonna sell low on him. I think Adam’s doomsday scenario of Cruz getting traded is more likely than Hamilton being moved, even though it’s a possibilty that Hamilton was a flash in the pan.
Either way, I think re-signing Marlon Byrd would be a disaster for this team. Our version of the Angels GMJ contract.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 12, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
I think there’s no chance Hamilton gets traded. You’d be hoping to get 10 cents on the dollar if you did that.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 12, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we could find
a taker for Murphy if we need to clear up some outfield room.
by MikeEl on Sep 12, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand all of the trade Cruz chatter lately
He’s arguably their best offensive player this season, with apologies to Face. I’m not sure we’ve seen his ceiling either, so I don’t buy into the selling high argument. It’s true, he will probably rake it in during arbitration, but I’d much rather spend that money on Cruz and not Byrd.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Sep 12, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we're talking cost-cutting
there’s no way they resign Byrd. I think they’d be comfortable rolling out Hammy, Cruz, Borbon, and Murph. But, I think they will resign him, unless the market for him goes crazy for some unaccountable reason. I don’t trust Hammy’s ability to stay healthy for a whole season. And they would need a righty for a platoon with Murph. Just for the record, I don’t want Byrd back. He’s having a career year during a contract year, and I don’t trust him to get better or even maintain.
I have trust issues.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Sep 12, 2009 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No we don't have to do anything
Borbon, Cruz, Hamilton, Byrd, Murphy is probably the strongest group of OFs of any team in the league. Boggs would stay in AAA along with Golson and Gentry in case of injury. There would be bitching and moaning about why some guys aren’t playing enough but thats about it
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 12, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
W.C.S.
Is when some dood buys the team, moves it to podunk, Oregon, and wins a WS there…
usa
by Longhorn on Sep 13, 2009 9:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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