Analyzing the Marlon Byrd Situation, Part I
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 28, 2009 10:30 AM CDT
108 comments
Marlon Byrd is a free agent after the 2009 season, and one of the things that you're starting to hear from the media is that the Rangers have to re-sign Marlon Byrd, that they can't let him walk.
I understand why folks would like to see Marlon Byrd come back. I agree he's been a valuable contributor to the Rangers this year. And I'd be open to him coming back under the right set of circumstances.
But one of the main reasons that a mid-payroll team wants to build a strong farm system is so that they won't be in a situation where they have to re-sign a Marlon Byrd. And fortunately, given where the Rangers stand now, they don't have to re-sign Marlon Byrd. Because the reality is that re-signing Marlon Byrd is a luxury that a team with a $100 million payroll might have, but that a team with a $60-65 million payroll -- like the Rangers apparently are -- doesn't have.
* * *
First off, let's get a handle on what it is that Marlon Byrd has been for the Rangers.
Coming here as a free agent prior to the 2007 season, it was expected that Byrd was going to be Kenny Lofton's platoon partner in centerfield and the team's fourth outfielder.
However, early on, Ron Washington became enamored with Jerry Hairston, Jr., and decided Hairston would be Lofton's platoon partner. And since Hairston was supposed to be the utility infielder, the Rangers decided to keep Matt Kata instead of Byrd, because Kata had a hot spring and he could be the utility infielder instead and besides, maybe Rudy could work with Kata and Kata would be the new Mark DeRosa.
So Byrd, who had signed a major league deal and was on the 40 man roster, was put on waivers at the end of spring training, cleared waivers, and had the right to declare free agency. But Byrd -- apparently thinking that a team that had JHJ and Matt Kata on the bench would be looking to AAA for reinforcements pretty quickly -- chose to go to Oklahoma.
Byrd put up a 984 OPS in AAA in a month-and-a-half, Hairston and Kata were terrible, as anyone who looked at their careers rather than a couple of weeks in March could have predicted, and on May 26, the Rangers purchased Byrd's contract. Remarkably, Byrd ended up playing in 108 of the team's remaining 114 games in 2007,* and had a solid season, playing about half the time in center and about half the time in a COF spot, and putting up a .281 EQA.
* Byrd was 6th on the Rangers in games played that season, just behind Gerald Laird, Brad Wilkerson, and Sammy Sosa, and just ahead of Frank Catalanotto and Ramon Vazquez. And that probably tells you everything you need to know about the Rangers' 2007 season.
Heading into the 2008 season, there was much discussion about whether the Rangers should sell high on Byrd, who was coming off the best year of his career, and was seen as a much better fit for a team with playoff aspirations than a team like the Rangers, who were clearly in rebuilding mode. Spring training was full of stories about the Cubs having interest in Byrd, with the Rangers demanding a quality pitching prospect plus Matt Murton for Byrd, while Jim Hendry held firm on Murton and maybe an organizational depth arm. There was a decent amount of carping among Rangers fans that Jon Daniels was being greedy, that he should take Murton for Byrd and go on his way, rather than risk Byrd regressing and seeing his value diminish.
Byrd was awful early, playing on a bad knee, went on the d.l., came back, and in his first appearance, pinch hit for Ramon Vazquez with the bases loaded in the 7th, down one at home against Seattle, and hit into a GIDP.
Now, let's put this into perspective. The Rangers were 20-21, and a win would get the team back to .500. Ramon Vazquez had been a surprisingly part of the team's success, with a .344/.419/.516 line heading into that game. The Rangers had won 11 of their last 14 with Byrd on the shelf, and there seemed to be a sentiment among some fans that Byrd no longer playing every day had something to do with it. A win against Seattle would mean a sweep of the M's in their three game series, and would result in the Rangers getting to 2 games back of first place.
Instead, Byrd hit into a DP, resulting in an epic LSB GDT meltdown, the Rangers lost in extra innings, and Byrd became persona non grata among Rangers fans.
And then a strange thing happened. Byrd kept playing, and he hit. And he hit some more. And he played almost every day, sometimes in center, sometimes in a COF spot, and he performed. And at the end of the year, Byrd had posted a .295 EQA, played good defense in the outfield, and was a valuable contributor on the first Ranger team to finish in better than third place since 1999.
Come 2009, though, Byrd looked to be the odd man out. Nelson Cruz was going to play right field, Hank Blalock was going to split the DH role with Andruw Jones, Josh Hamilton was in center, and David Murphy was going to be in left field. Byrd was going to play, no question about that, but as the fourth outfielder, the guy filling in the gaps.
And what happened? Byrd is, as of right now, leading the Rangers in games played, with 102 games in center and most of the rest in left field. Byrd's offense hasn't been as good as it was in 2007 or 2008, but he still has put up a respectable .267 EQA, which is right around average for a centerfielder.*
* BP has Byrd at 1.2 runs below average for his position offensively, but that is weighted about 25% towards LF and 75% towards CF, given that Byrd has split his time between the two positions about 25/75.
So, what have the Rangers gotten from Byrd over the past three seasons?
They've gotten a solid starting major league outfielder. FanGraphs has him as being around a 2.5 win player in 2007 and 2009, and around a 3.5 win player in 2008, worth a little over $10 million in the odd years and a little over $15 million in 2008.
They've gotten a guy who gave them quality offense in 2007 and 2008, and whose offense has slipped in 2009 but is still acceptable from a centerfielder.
Byrd's defense has been a mixed bag. His defensive reputation coming here was as your classic tweener, above average in a corner, below average in center. His UZR in center has been 0.3 in 63 games in 2007, 5.9 in 57 games in 2008, and -4.5 games in 102 games so far in 2009. His UZR in both corners has been comfortably above average.
Dewan's +/- system shows much the same...the enhanced +/- has Byrd at +11 in 3 years in LF, +10 in 3 years in RF, and -8 in 3 years in CF, with 2008 being his best year in center defensively. If we look at runs saved in +/-, he's an aggregate +10 in the corners the past three years, -4 in center.
So that's what Byrd has been...some fans might have railed about him sucking, and a lot of us have been frustrated by Ron Washington's recent seeming overreliance on Byrd and his tendency to hit him cleanup, but once the Rangers corrected their mistake and called him up in 2007, he's performed.
Marlon Byrd hasn't been a superstar by any means, but I think there's no question, in looking at what he's done from 2007-2009, that he's exceeded expectations and been a solid contributor, a guy whose performance would warrant an every day job on a good team.
In the next installment, we'll consider what the Rangers should do with Marlon Byrd going forward.
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Good write-up
and kudos for crediting Byrd with being aware of the impending crappiness of JHJ and Kata.
I think Byrd has to be considered one of JD’s best acquisitions – he has been a very solid contributor that JD got for free. Teams like Texas, in the $50-75 million payroll range, need to have Byrd-like signings. This is why inking mediocre free agents is almost never a good idea. There is almost always someone out there who gets non-tendered or runs out of options with a higher ceiling than someone you can sign for $2-3 million or so. JD is as talented at mining the scrapheap as anyone.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Sep 28, 2009 10:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And the obvious conclusion following from that
is that JD should let Byrd walk, knowing full well that he can find another Marlon Byrd out there.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Sep 28, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am still astonished
by Matt Kata’s ability to find work and by any team that thinks he’s a good option either defensively or offensively.
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For me Byrd has been just fine for the Rangers,
and you cannot measure heart, desire and leadership with some nerd scale such as UZR or whatever it’s called, i know that Byrd will get much larger offers from other teams and as most people do, he will probably go with the money, but if for some reason he wants to be a ranger again and will stay for less pay i would welcome him back in a heartbeat.
Larry Parrish Was Da Man!
by TRFAN on Sep 28, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
LMAO
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Sep 28, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed. Scrappiness and heart are priceless. Pay the man. 4/40MM.
by JDT217 on Sep 28, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget about guttiness and grittiness
I thought it be all warm and shitty, but it just tasted like normal beer. It was still cold.
by RA Dickey on Sep 28, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When did Byrd become an undersized white guy?
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 28, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Hey, this is right on
We can’t really measure things like heart, desire and leadership. Fortunately we can measure the things that tell us how good someone is at playing baseball.
by hca4 on Sep 28, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
His heart grades out at 4.2 jiffies.
by JDT217 on Sep 28, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But only 0.76 Ecksteins
I have no objection to man walking on the moon.
by Chad Crudup on Sep 28, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's got HDL+ of 122
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 28, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd...
has been a great guy to have on the Rangers the last couple years. He has exceeded expectations in every way, and been a key contributor.
However I don’t want to see him back next season. This team can’t afford to pay Byrd 5 or 6 million for 4 years. I’m willing to bet he will not produce again like he has this season offensively and he’s overrated defensively imo. He’s a great clubhouse guy and leader, and I love the way he hustles and plays the game. That’s not worth what he will command on the FA market though.
The Rangers simply have too many better/cheaper options for the OF mix going forward and they need to say thanks and cut ties with him. It’s not like Marlon can really be upset with the Rangers for that either. They gave him a chance when other teams wouldn’t and he’s going to turn that into a big payday for himself. He deserves a lot of credit for taking advantage of the opportunity and performing, but he should be doing it next season for another team.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 28, 2009 11:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i agree
Rangers OF/DH is pretty much set with Hamilton, Cruz, Borbon, and Murphy. They could obviously use another RH, and I’m sure they will get that in the offseason….it will just be at a much cheaper price than Byrd would command.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
by willamos2 on Sep 28, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can they let Byrd walk if they hope to contend?
If Josh is Josh2009, instead of Josh2008, who play CF? Borbon? Surely ye jest. Murphy? Nellie? Come on.
I’m not suggesting Byrd is a star, but he is damn sure Hamilton insurance and the only real option they have. He plays hard & hurt(?). Any of the clubhouse leader stuff, whatever it’s worth, is just a bonus.
If they let him walk, I hope the have a back-up plan in case Josh is the Great White (we all) Hope.
by tklawless on Sep 28, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think better/cheaper
is an exageration. Cheaper is the whats true. Lets be sure that we all admit that we are all being bean counters by having this conversation. Thats not necessarily bad, but is necessarily true.
by mcgee48c on Sep 28, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well we are informed fans
We know that keeping a midtier player like Byrd will cost more than hes likely to be worth to us as a team.
Hes a good player now, coming out of what should be his prime years. Hes a good COF, but weak with the bat for a COF over all. Hes got a slightly above average CF bat, but has slightly below average defense.
Hes a 3rd OF on a team with OF problems or a really really good 4th OF.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Sep 28, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's likely to produce the same or better offense next year
I’m willing to bet he will not produce again like he has this season offensively
As Adam showed above, his offense was actually down a bit this year.
While he is a solid average OF, the money he will cost to keep can be spent better elsewhere filling holes that we cannot fill from within. We have other, cheaper options in the OF that are just as good.
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 28, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd
What contract does he get this winter? 3/$30m?
Better D than Milton, obviously a better reputation, better health, but worse contract year and career line.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Sep 28, 2009 11:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I say about 4/25...
hard to tell what the market will do though.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 28, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say
3/$18M
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 28, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be surprised if he get's that much.
There are big names in the outfield in the FA market this year, and unless a team goes aggressively at Byrd early i bet he get’s stuck with an Abreu-like situation. The big names ahead of Him this year are Vlad, Abreu, Bay, Crawford Damon, Holliday etc… Seems like there’s not that many big spenders anymore.
Here are the outfield free agents of 2010:
Left fielders
Garret Anderson (38)
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31)
Emil Brown (35)
Marlon Byrd (32)
Carl Crawford (28) – $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Johnny Damon (36)
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Matt Holliday (30)
Reed Johnson (33)
Jacque Jones (35)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Manny Ramirez (38) – $20MM player option
Dave Roberts (38)
Gary Sheffield (41)
Fernando Tatis (35)
Randy Winn (36)
Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (30)
Rocco Baldelli (28)
Marlon Byrd (32)
Mike Cameron (37)
Endy Chavez (32)
Coco Crisp (30) – $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Darin Erstad (36)
Ryan Freel (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Reed Johnson (33)
Andruw Jones (33)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Mark Kotsay (34)
Corey Patterson (30)
Scott Podsednik (34)
Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (36)
Jermaine Dye (36) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Brian Giles (39)
Vladimir Guerrero (34)
Eric Hinske (32)
Geoff Jenkins (35) – $7.5MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Gabe Kapler (34)
Austin Kearns (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Michaels (34)
Xavier Nady (31)
Randy Winn (36)
by jcAustin on Sep 28, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Byrd will falls into
the 6-10 range on the FA OF depth chart.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 28, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if teams are looking specifically for a CFer
which there is a difference between CF and COF, then who is better than Byrd on this list? I think he should get a good team from another team. There are plenty of options for teams to take but Byrd looks to be the best in Center
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Sep 28, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
*good deal*
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Sep 28, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is this.
Byrd will probably be viewed as the #1 CF and get more than we would normally think about him getting because of it.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Sep 28, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's actually a fairly unimpressive lot
of FA outfielders. With the exception of Bay, Abreu, Holliday, Dye, and Crawford, I don’t know that there would be any better offensive options than Byrd, and he’s probably got the edge on some of those guys defensively too. I’d guess he gets somewhere in the neighborhood of 3yrs, 15-20mil. My guess, is that after the Cubs trade/ditch Bradley they’ll sign Byrd to replace him.
Incidentally, the one guy on that list I could see being the next GMJ/DeRosa/Byrd project for the Rangers is Austin Kearns.
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Abreu and Dye are not good comps
They are both 36 and are not likely to get multi-year deals.
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 28, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could see both getting a 2-3 year deal somewhere
probably option years involved and incentives but I doubt they are at the point in their careers where they are one year deal guys from here on out.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 28, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any aticle that has a shot at Matt Kata in it
is gold as far as I’m concerned
by BEW on Sep 28, 2009 11:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Byrd
Good stuff. He’s been one of my favorite players the last few years. I have a soft spot for guys like him and other guys like DeRosa, Michael Young, and Feldman who have fought through career setbacks and have surpassed the expectations of naysayers. That said, it would probably be a mistake to bring him back although it’s not cut-and dry. I thought the same thing about Derosa, and in retrospect it was a mistake to let him go. We should have kept him and cut Blalock.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
by trza on Sep 28, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If the Rangers keep Byrd...
that means one of Borbon/Cruz isn’t playing everyday. In fact, I have to think if the Rangers do resign Marlon that they will just deal Nellie (which could happen anyway).
Given the offensive struggles this team has had, I think it would be a big mistake for this team to bump Nellie for Marlon Byrd. Again, Byrd has been great the last couple years. However I can’t see him doing what he has done this year again.
The Rangers offense (and defense for that matter) would be much better with a OF of Hamilton/Borbon/Cruz and Murphy as the 4th OFer. Of course that assumes that Wash doesn’t bump Nellie or Borbon for Murphy. Which is another issue that concerns me.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 28, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OF
One possible solution would be to give Hamilton much more time at DH and go with a platoon of Byrd and Murphy in left field. Keeping Hamilton off the field might help him stay healthy and improve his offensive output. As it stands I’m not sure who the DH will be next season, so this solution might be the best one. I do agree that sitting or trading Cruz would be about the worst thing they could do.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
by trza on Sep 28, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for...
keeping Hamilton healthy. He can be the biggest difference between next years offense and this years, no doubt. If that means he’s the DH then so be it.
However thinking Wash will platoon Byrd with anyone is naive. If Byrd stays Borbon or Nellie (maybe even both with Murphy starting) are going to be on the bech or on another team. I don’t want to see that happen.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 28, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
Byrd has to go, so Borbon can play everyday, and we can’t give up our best power-hitter in Cruz. Cruz would not be easily replaced. I think you can replace Byrd right now.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Sep 28, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wash doesn't platoon his OF
He tends to move all 4/5 guys around so that playing time is more even. You rarely see him just alternate two guys at one position (except catcher).
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 28, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wash will not platoon Byrd if he has him
He will Platoon Cruz with Murphy instead.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Sep 28, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
one reason to think about re-signing Byrd
is that Borbon is still a very young player and he’s likely to have more than his share of ups and downs next season. I would not be surprised to see him go through significant slumps as the league adjusts to him.
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
I think they’ll trade Cruz and find some way to re-sign him.
by LiamP on Sep 28, 2009 11:30 AM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Bet you're right.
And that wouldn’t bother me too much if they don’t overpay too much for The Byrd. They’d be selling high on Cruz if they traded him this off-season.
by jcAustin on Sep 28, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm...
They’d be selling high on Cruz if they traded him this off-season.
Please explain this? Do you really think Nellie has had his best ML season in his first season playing everyday?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 28, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope not, but yes.
He’s 29, and players usually peak at 27-28.
by jcAustin on Sep 28, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He may be slightly better next year
but he’s soon to be on the wrong side of 30.
by bdavison94 on Sep 28, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so what do we expect in return for Cruz?
I’m guessing a Giants trade trying to get Sanchez or a package deal to get Cain?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 28, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely no idea.
Nellie’s a strange case. 1 very good full year under his belt after little to no prior ML success. Cheap but in his late 20’s.
FWIW, trading Cruz to keep Byrd would infuriate me unless Borbon’s arm
has no hope of getting better.
by LiamP on Sep 28, 2009 11:55 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Even if Borbon's arm has no hope
It would still be a mistake. Trade a better cheaper bat to keep a worse more expensive bat. Unless you get something really good back for Cruz, which I doubt because we would be viewed as trading from a disadvantage I suspect, it would be a huge mistake.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Sep 28, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we'd be in a disadvantageous position
if we waited to sign Byrd until after the trade. I imagine a team like the Giants or D-backs, or another offensively inept team with strong pitching, maybe even ALL of the NL, would really covet a bat/glove like Cruz.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 28, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to sign Byrd first unfortunately
If you don’t and you trade Cruz before you find out that some team signed him you have basically made an excess into a lack.
I just think we are talking about making room for an average player by moving a borderline all star level player. It doesn’t make any sense what so ever.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Sep 29, 2009 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not on board with trading Cruz
unless we’re overwhelmed, which I certainly think is POSSIBLE but not PROBABLE.
I’m just thinking, if management decides to bring Byrd back, what the shakeup would look like.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 29, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering if we could get
Adrian Gonzales if we traded Cruz, CJ and maybe one or two other minor leaguers.
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the one or two other minor leaguers....
…were Smoak and M. Perez, yeah.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 28, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
or Davis and
Nippert, Harrison, McCarthy, or .Hurley?
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think about it
One of the best first basemen in the game, under contract for cheap, for Nelson Cruz, C.J. Wilson, Chris Davis, and one of a grab-bag of fifth starter candidates.
Why would San Diego do that?
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 28, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As great as Gonzalez is
he is only one player. In this trade or something along these lines, they get back multiple proven major league talents in Cruz and Wilson, a major league starter or two, and a possible replacement at 1B in Davis with potential. That would go a long way toward putting together a competitive major league roster, all of players on the cheap.
Not saying they’d go for it, but I think they’d at least have to consider it…
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they'd consider it
They’d want something more along the lines of what the Braves gave up for Teixeira.
Cruz and Wilson are nice, but they are in their late-20s, and Wilson has two years to go before hitting free agency.
Davis’s value is at an all-time low, and the arms you mentioned don’t have much trade value right now…other than Nippert, all of them have been hurt much or all of this year.
That’s just not the type of package that would fetch Gonzalez. There are a dozen teams that would trump that deal.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 28, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I wouldn't do it if I were the Rangers
but that’s just me
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 28, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
because he's a quality first baseman
with a good OBP and would provide the perfect offensive upgrade at the right position. I say let bygones be bygones and pursue the best improvement we can get….
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why
everyone assumes Cruz will be the one traded next season and not Murphy. While they don’t have equal trade value, I think the “dislike” of Cruz is overblown and that he will be a Ranger for years to come.
by MikeEl on Sep 28, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so
gary matthews situation all over again?
by selppuc on Sep 28, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pretty much
Just on a smaller scale.
No one will give Byrd 5/55, but I wouldn’t see something like 3/20 being unreasonable.
by Trickman on Sep 28, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what helps
is that he can play CF and that will cause a team to overpay.
by Coolbean04 on Sep 28, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what class of freeagent
will byrd be considered?
by selppuc on Sep 28, 2009 11:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Almost certainly a type B
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Sep 28, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see why
the Rangers may want to keep him, if they can make the numbers right.
For whatever reason, RW isn’t enamored with Nelson Cruz, arguably the best OF on the team. Hamilton’s year has shown that his fragility may mean he is a year to year proposition. David Murphy is a good 4th OF/ platoon 3rd OF. For all the talk of Borbon’s defense in the minors, he doesn’t really look like he has much in the way of reads, and he has almost a Cat level arm.
Basicly, its a big handful of maybes.
As far as the money goes, the obvious place to spend it is on a DH/backup 1B, but I could almost see getting Byrd, and sliding one of the OFs to that slot, and maybe picking up a waiver wire guy. I think with some of the money coming off the books (Blalock, Padilla, etc.) they might be able to clear enough for Byrd. I’d rather them not do it, but it wouldn’t be the silliest thing they have done money wise.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2009 11:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd be willing to bet that we see a massive defensive improvement from Borbon
don’t ask me why, I have NO statistical evidence of why.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 28, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His defense
the second biggest letdown of the season to me, after Davis’ bat.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how can it be a letdown?
he’s hasn’t been given the chance to play enough to really evaluate him
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Sep 28, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think its likely the talk
of him being a GG level CF, and then having Wash not trusting him in left.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Sep 28, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, but Wash has a list of "his" guys
and Murphy and Byrd get the nod because of the gut. Borbon’s speed nuetralizes any supposed advantage defensively from anyone else on this team.
I, for one, would like to see him play more in the field to be able to make a judgment
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Sep 28, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
GG level CFs have about the same arm strength as Seth Morris.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.....
Bad reads on balls and almost a Johnny Damon arm…..Can’t see him being a GG CF anytime soon.
by tklawless on Sep 28, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh nooooo not the dreaded Johnny Damon arm...
HH is that a sock in your puppet or are you happy to see me?
by BigGuns on Sep 28, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
re:
I’d be willing to bet that we see a massive defensive improvement from Borbon
don’t ask me why, I have NO statistical evidence of why.
Do you know how irritating it is to read something like that?
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Sep 28, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
but it's fun to type
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 28, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What would be the max we'd take him for?
if he couldn’t get a big contract, and wanted to come back – what would we be fine with?
3 years/$12 mil?
sounds like many don’t even want him to return regardless of the price…due to the potential Cruz/Borbon/Hamilton starting outfield and Murphy/Boggs/Golson, etc. bench
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 28, 2009 11:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to know
what we could get for Cruz if he would sign for that. I think he gets 6-8MM more though.
by bdavison94 on Sep 28, 2009 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know which
zones Byrd is deficent according to UZR and Dewan’s +/-?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 28, 2009 11:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+/-
Sorry for the formatting, but it didn’t come across to well
Marlon Byrd
Left Field
THROWING PLUS/MINUS
Opps To Extra Runs Outs Runs
Year Team Inn Advance Bases Pct Kills Saved Rank Made Basic Shallow Medium Deep Enhanced Saved Rank
2005 2 tms 386.0 39 17 .436 3 1 0 100 0 +1 -3 +3 +1 1 0
2006 Was 6.2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007 Tex 116.2 12 5 .417 0 0 0 31 +3 0 +1 +4 +6 3 0
2008 Tex 236.0 27 10 .370 0 -1 0 61 -3 -6 -1 +3 -3 -2 0
2009 Tex 305.2 35 15 .429 0 -1 0 73 +5 -1 +5 +4 +8 4 0
Center Field
THROWING PLUS/MINUS
Opps To Extra Runs Outs Runs
Year Team Inn Advance Bases Pct Kills Saved Rank Made Basic Shallow Medium Deep Enhanced Saved Rank
2004 Phi 753.1 62 37 .597 1 -2 24 195 -7 +2 +6 -27 -19 -11 31
2005 2 tms 95.0 3 1 .333 0 1 0 20 -1 0 +1 -2 -1 -1 0
2006 Was 393.1 58 29 .500 1 1 0 125 +3 -2 +3 +7 +8 4 0
2007 Tex 496.1 44 29 .659 2 2 14 114 -3 -3 -2 +2 -3 -2 25
2008 Tex 433.0 48 24 .500 3 3 0 149 0 -2 -1 +4 +1 1 0
2009 Tex 881.0 81 50 .617 3 -1 27 239 -1 +8 -3 -10 -5 -3 24
Right Field
THROWING PLUS/MINUS
Opps To Extra Runs Outs Runs
Year Team Inn Advance Bases Pct Kills Saved Rank Made Basic Shallow Medium Deep Enhanced Saved Rank
2005 2 tms 34.0 2 1 .500 0 0 0 10 +1 +1 0 +1 +2 1 0
2006 Was 83.0 5 2 .400 0 0 0 23 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 0
2007 Tex 304.1 44 16 .364 4 5 0 78 +1 -1 -1 +2 0 0 0
2008 Tex 279.0 45 23 .511 2 0 0 71 +4 +6 -2 +2 +6 3 0
2009 Tex 35.0 5 5 1.000 1 -1 0 12 +2 +1 +1 +3 +4 2 0
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Skype
transformed one of those sets of numbers into a Liberian telephone number on my computer. I’m tempted to call it.
by rodinuk on Sep 28, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And who will answer
Either Marlon Byrd or an ACORN branch office
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Sep 28, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd
Great write up Adam.
The way I see it playing out is the Rangers trading Cruz and resigning Byrd. If Hamilton and Davis bounce back next year along with better production out of the catcher position and Kinsler being more consistent it would mitigate the difference between Byrd and Cruz offensively. And having Byrd and his versatility in the OF will be a huge huge thing for us going forward. Cruz is not a CF. Murphy is not a CF. The Rangers have said they want to keep Hamilton out of CF as much as possible. And Borbon hasn’t played out there yet.
Without Byrd the Rangers would be relegated to Borbon in CF and if something happened to him or he had a sophmore/rookie slump it would be down to Hamilton only. I don’t think the Rangers want that situation playing out.
Anything over 7.5 mil per is too much IMO and anything over 3 guaranteed years is too long. I would say a 3/16 with incentives would be a good deal for both us and Byrd
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 28, 2009 1:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Recognizing the situation for what it is
The tough calculation (and I’ll wait for Adam’s part 2) is evaluation of what part of the team’s personality does Marlon Byrd really represent. His contributions are tangible, his attitude and hustle are intangible. Balancing the worth of either (or both) is going to be an excercise in tactile sensibility. And literally, Cruz should not be trade bait, even refined trade bait. He and the guy in Seattle (Franklyn Gutierrez) typify players who are not public faces (good or bad) but damn excellent ballplayers who are worth more to their team than what can normally be brought back in trade.
Now I’m eager to see Adam’s part 2, which I’d expect would have some of that necessary quantification of things to shed light on the eithers and ors of Byrd’s future, Rangers or otherwise.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Sep 28, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz absolutely should be trade bait
if this team is going to resign Byrd.
Unless you feel that Hamilton wont improve upon this year, Davis won’t improve upon this year, Kinsler won’t become more consistent, and the catcher position won’t improve upon this year.
If you think all those areas won’t improve then yes we need to keep Cruz. But if you think those areas will improve and you are going to resign Byrd then Cruz absolutely should be trade bait. The fact is he is a guy who is getting up there in age (I know all about his late start to baseball) and has played a ton of baseball over the last couple years. He is cheap and controllable which makes him very attractive to other teams. This team has no glaring holes in its roster now or long term. So the whole “we can use the money we would have given Byrd to fill holes we have elsewhere” argument doesn’t make sense to me. We can trade Cruz and improve the core of our team which when you factor in the trickle down effect will imrpove all areas of our team.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 28, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blasphemy if I say this
But Hamilton might get you a TORP and Cruz would not. Kansas City, anyone?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Sep 28, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And while I'm blaspheming
I have visions of a lineup beginning with
Borbon
Andrus
Young
Bradley
Cruz
Kinsler
OF (Murphy/maybe Byrd)
DH
C
With some of Wash’s normal alternations and rest out’s
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Sep 28, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DH should say 1B - mid post edit fail
go’menesai.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Sep 28, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marlon Byrd
named AL Player of the Week from the Texas Rangers website
I soloed in the Mile High Club!
by horsedooty on Sep 28, 2009 2:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good for him
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Sep 28, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd has been a productive roleplayer for us
But sooner or later, you have to let roleplayers go. I don’t see how his approach at the plate fits with the direction this team needs to be taking, or how his managers blind devotion to him fits with the direction we need to be taking, much less how he fits in with the guys we already have. The bottom line is keeping him would mean sacrificing either playing time or worse an entire roster spot that should be going to a better player, and that would be a fucking horrible baseball decision.
Only thing is, that’s exactly the kind of dumbass decision I could see this team making, given how much they like Marlon Byrd and his “leadership”. After all, this is the club that has let corpses like Frank Catalanotto and Eddie Guardado sit around on the 40 man and has dumped two members of their rotation over the past two seasons in the name of clubhouse continuity.
Not that I disagree with the canning of Pontoon and Vinnie, of course, but they do serve as perfect examples of how clubhouse-minded this organization has become over the past few years. Which to a certain extent is a good thing, at least in those two cases, but if being clubhouse-minded makes you start sacrificing better players just so you can resign a well-liked roleplayer it’ll have gone too far. And based on all the fawning there has been over Byrd of late, I fear that’s exactly where we’re headed.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 28, 2009 7:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This
Byrd at his very very best is going to give you what Nelson Cruz already can (sans the “leadership” and whatever else), but for over 10 M more over the next 3 years. Is Byrd’s leadership intangibles really worth 10-12 M over the next 3 years? I mean don’t you already have that with guys like MYoung and Kinsler?
With a payroll at around 55M, you just can’t afford to spend money on a guy like Marlon Byrd. If this team does end up trading Cruz and re-signing Byrd, I think it’ll be an enormous mistake.
by behindthebag on Sep 28, 2009 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple things Jonny boy
mean sacrificing either playing time or worse an entire roster spot that should be going to a better player
Who exactly would that better player be? Borbon? They are two completely different types of players but I highly doubt Borbon gives us what Byrd has over the next couple seasons
Frank Catalanotto and Eddie Guardado sit around on the 40 man
We kept Cat around when we didn’t have a bunch of youngsters ML ready yet and he barely played. And who would we have brought up to replace Eddie? AJ Murray? As much as you hate the clubhouse aspect of all this its a real part of things. I know it doesn’t matter in MLB 09 about stuff like that but in real life its a real part of things. Over the course of 162 games a bad attitude in the lockerroom can absolutely kill a baseball team.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 28, 2009 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify real quick
I don’t believe we should keep Byrd and send Borbon down. But to say Byrd would be taking a roster spot from someone is a bit much. Byrd is not a spare player. I can’t think of a single team who would turn a player like Marlon Byrd down.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 28, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about Cruz.
Cruz shouldn’t get traded off or religated to the bench just so Ron can have his precious Byrdman in center.
And re: the clubhouse… I know it’s a real aspect of things. It’s not however, and aspect that should trump talent and common sense. We have no real need for Byrd going forward unless you don’t think Hamilton will rebound or Borbon will be a good player, and we shouldn’t be spending what little money we’re going to have this offseason on him.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 28, 2009 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happens if Borbon can't handle CF next year?
Who plays CF? What if Hamilton is injured most of the season again?
Im not arguing Byrd is better than Cruz. But if keeping Byrd, along with improvements in Hamilton, Davis, the catchers, and more consistency out of Kinsler is worth looking into trading Cruz. Fact is Cruz is gonna be a 30 year old next year and has been playing nonstop baseball for a couple seasons now. Oh and hes a pretty good offensive player under control for several more years so he will be attractive to teams in trade.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 28, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would imagine we'll pick up somebody like Endy Chavez as insurance to stick in AAA for Borbon
And you’ve still got Gentry, Golson and Boggs in the minors. They might not hit, but they’d provide some solid D in CF if for some reason Borbon or Hamilton can’t play there.
Besides, I don’t think you can count on improvement or more consistency from Kinsler, the catchers or Davis. Kinsler is streaky, the catchers suck and Davis is an enigma right now. We need to be adding a top offensive player, not trading one of ours off.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Sep 28, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow captain depressing
If we get an Endy Chavez to “stick in AAA” then which one of our OFs there get demoted to AA? Gentrys already spent 2 years in AA, Boggs was in the majors most of last year, and Golson spent all season in AAA this year. As far as any of them being an everyday CF in the majors…I don’t think so. Boggs barely played there in his time here last year, Gentry probably needs a full year in AAA before hes ML ready, and Golson is fast and thats it. Any of those 3 guys is fine coming up to provide depth for a couple weeks, maybe a month, but to bring them up and expect them to play any significant time is bad.
And I do think Kinsler can become more consistent. Especially if we drop him in the order for good like I believe we do next year. The catchers are my least worry because even if they don’t improve they are at the bottom of the order and their defense is more important. Although I do expect Salty to improve next year. And if you don’t expect Davis to improve then you might as well give him away right now.
Im not saying trade Cruz for the sake of trading him but given all the aspects he is the most likely guy to be moved IF we decide to bring back Byrd which isn’t a bad thing necessarily
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 28, 2009 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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