think you had a bad year? PECOTA did worse.
by sam in so cal on Sep 29, 2009 10:01 AM CDT
64 comments
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-2009.html
(opens in new window)
Because it's impossible to quantify everything that affects (potentially affects) a team's record over the course of 162 games (especially unknown future events like injuries), predictions made before the season are usually pretty inaccurate - especially when given for more than one team. I think I picked the Rangers to lose 90 (or more), and there were (in my mind) a lot of issues surrounding this team that concerned me, warranting that prediction. I was (mostly) wrong, although the team made a concerted effort plunge toward the end.
It's tough to predict with any accuracy. That said, it's good/enjoyable to look back and see how everyone fared. Here's an article doing just that.
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Thanks for posting this, sam
I don’t feel so bad about picking 73 wins….looks like I had very good company.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Sep 29, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Haha
I’m going to resist going on my semi-weekly rant about how ridiculous pre-season predictions are since I have more important things to do today. But I’m definitely thinking it.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Sep 29, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Almost everybody from the outside
who wasn’t a Ranger Homer had this team at 75ish wins.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Sep 29, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words, the folks on the inside who might have put some weight on the defensive upgrades did alright...
While those who put no weight on the upgrades screwed up.
"Feldman and Feliz and and pray for…infectious disease?"--TheJeezus on Sep 9, 2009 1:01 PM PDT
by WestTxAg06 on Sep 29, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simply underestimated Tiny E (he was 20 years old on Opening Day) and how much influence Nolan Ryan
would have on the pitching staff.
JD not knowing how to replace the offense lost with Bradley gone was fairly predictable.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Sep 29, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nyuck nyuck nyuck
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Sep 29, 2009 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just snorted
Scott Feldman – "The greatest Hawaiian-born Jewish baseball player to ever set foot on the mound."
by Section 339 on Sep 29, 2009 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
'cause, you know
Nolan Ryan’s defense is the shit.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Sep 30, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused...
…is Nolan Ryan’s influence only on the pitching? It’s not on the offense at all? I thought he was all powerful.
"I love winning." - rockin_rangers, on May 16, 2009
by ghtd36 on Sep 29, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No stupid...
haven’t you learned anything. Whatever goes good = Nolan. Whatever could have been better = JD.
So this year the pitching and defense is all Nolan. The offense is JD’s fault.
Next year if the pitching regresses then it will be JD’s fault for not signing anyone. If the offense starts to hit it’s obviously because of the influence of the great Nolan Ryan.
It’s Josey 101.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 29, 2009 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the offense improves next season
Its only because the great Nolan Ryan sat around doing nothing about it this year and decided to finally do something about for 2010.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Sep 30, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rangers scored 901 runs in 2008.
Nolan Ryan left JD alone on this one and trusted he’d come up with a plan for a productive offense again.
Big problem, Little Boy Donuts shit the bed to such a degree that we missed the playoffs despite the excellent improvements made by Ryan re the pitching and defense.
Hard to say what happens in this off-season of uncertaintly because of our ownership situation but Ryan will implement change of some sort.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Sep 30, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
If the pitching goes back to sucking again next year, is that Nolan’s fault?
Keep convincing yourself that this team’s only done well because SuperJesus Nolan is so awesome that he was able to fix all the problems caused by JD. It’s got nothing to do with all those players Daniels acquired. Nothing at all.
It’s going to be fun watching you throw a conniption fit if JD wins Executive of the Year. Hell, if that happens, and Wash wins Manager of the Year, your head might actually explode.
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Sep 30, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
RC Cook
You’d have a much stronger case if Little Boy Donuts didn’t shit the bed so badly from 2006-2008.
And then, ever so coincidentally, no more dumb trades or foolish free agent signings occur and The Thing turns on a dime the very year Nolan Ryan implements change.
Keep working on your case and come back when you actually have something.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Sep 30, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Because I could very well say the same to you. You seem to be the only one who believes 95% of the “theories” you’ve thrown out on this board, particularly that whole “the vets don’t like JD” mantra that you still haven’t provided any real evidence for. Or do you have some quotes from current players now?
You’ve said this team got better because of the improved defense and pitching, which I would agree with- who do you think acquired most of those players?
Nolan didn’t assemble this roster. JD did.
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Sep 30, 2009 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreeance, RC.
This team, just like the 2008 team, was assembled by JD.
This Thing, without Nolan implementing massive change, allowed the most runs and committed the most errors in MLB.
When Nolan sits back for a year and observes, evaluates and suggests, he then decides to put his stamp on the team (with the worst defense and pitching in MLB) JD assembled.
Whaddya know? The massive change implemented by Nolan Ryan on the team JD assembled makes a huge difference in the standings.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Nolan gets credt
for implementing changes to the pitching and defense — shouldn’t he get equal blame for NOT recognizing that the lineup had issues and making little boy donuts do something to fix it?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 1, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nolan saw last year's line-up that scored 901 runs
and his evaluation at the time gave him confidence that Little Boy Donuts would be able to maintain the productivity so he was hands-off.
Upon further review, the offense Little Boy Donuts put together shat the bed in technicolor and I would assume Nolan will see that in his evaluation and implement massive change.
You see, Nolan let’s people do their job. When he sees them fuck up (like Little Boy Donuts has), massive changes of some sort are coming.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Nolan's evaluation shit the bed
Cool.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 1, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just like with Purke.
Surprised?
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Oct 1, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nolan Ryan doesn't draft players.
The General Manager of the team drafts players.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're reaching sir.
Purke and his agent had very strong ties to Ryan.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 1, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So that means Ryan gets credit for both
Smoak and Ross drafted in 2008?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no.
no it doesn’t.
It means that both JD and NR get credit for not signing Purke just as JD and NR get credit for signing Smoak and Ross.
Come on man.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 1, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no.
no it doesn’t.
It means that both JD and NR get credit for not signing Purke just as JD and NR get credit for signing Smoak and Ross.
Come on man.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 1, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no.
no it doesn’t.
It means that both JD and NR get credit for not signing Purke just as JD and NR get credit for signing Smoak and Ross.
Come on man.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 1, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure seems like Nolan
has a helluva lot on his plate, moreso than most team presidents.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
mmmmkay,,,,
You sure made a sharp turn there…
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 1, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say I agreed...
Don’t know of too many other Team Prez who have to wipe the ass and burp their GMs to the degree Ryan does and then worry about also putting more butts in seats because the stupid sonofabitch Daniels assembled a team that caused incredible apathy (attendance down 600,000 in three years!?!?)
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Attendance is up an average of 3k / gm this year.
So is that bc of the team JD put on the field?
Or bc Nolan sits on the field next to the dugout?
Or can you just be reasonable and say both?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 1, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Seeing as you’re pretty much the only person who believes this theory that Nolan came in with his magical Jesus-presence and made everything better, I don’t think Nolan is that busy.
This team’s better for a number of reasons. I think we all know what they are, and at the end of the day, Nolan, JD, and Wash all had a pretty big hand in improving This Thing.
Nolan’s hire of Maddux and the new pitching mentality certainly helped, but did it help more than JD’s acquisitions of Andrus, Vizquel, Feliz, Hunter, and O’Day? Or how about Wash’s defensive coaching paying dividends with a much-improved Kinsler?
Your “Nolan’s changes were the sole reason this team improved” theory might hold water if the Rangers had brought back the exact same team as last year, but they didn’t.
Credit goes to JD, Nolan, and Wash equally for this year’s success, and I don’t think there are many people, aside from yourself, who would argue that.
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Oct 1, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
JD would get a lot more credit
if he wasn’t dragging that ugly track record of 2006-2008 (before Nolan was here and then implemented massive change) behind him.
JD’s inability to fix the bed he shit in this year (the offense) doesn’t help either.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
You’re just never going to forgive JD for his early mistakes, even though he’s shown he can improve, including making one hell of a deal in the Teixeira trade, and despite him building a farm system that’s provided serious dividends towards this year’s success?
Why not just say that at the outset? It would have been so much easier, and saved us all the trouble of months of arguing.
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Oct 1, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not just JD's "early mistakes" - His incompetency is ongoing.
He pissed himself at the trade deadline (again) this year and his in season strategy to fix the team’s obp (hope) failed miserably.
It’s not like obp should have been something he didn’t foresee as a problem going into the season but he shit the bed in technicolor once again and it cost us a playoff spot.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your opinion
You could just as easily say that Nolan screwed up in not going to bat for JD and convincing Hicks to take on payroll so the team could acquire a hitter.
And I thought the stupidity stopped when Nolan came on board, anyway.
I’ll be curious to see if your opinion of Nolan changes if the Rangers offer Wash a new contract this off-season. After all, that’s a “major decision,” and we all know Nolan has to sign off on all those, right?
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Oct 1, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nolan left JD alone on the offense
because they put up 901 runs in 2008. That’s what a good boss does, right?
Nolan went to work implementing massive changes to the pitching & defense. The results were apparent, immediate and positive.
Ryan let JD handle the offense this past off-season and we’re going to put up 120 runs or so less this year.
The impending ownership situation makes everything murky but I’d be surprised if there isn’t massive change next year on several levels with the offense.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
It’s pretty obvious by now that you’re going to stick with this simplistic theory of everything Nolan does is Jesus-awesome, and everything Little Boy Donuts does is pissing his pants.
So there’s really no point in arguing this any further. I’m done.
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Oct 1, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tell
Little Boy Donuts to fix the offense (here’s a hint, we need more men on base) next year and both of you will have a much stronger case.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
The pitching’s Nolan’s job, the offense is JD’s. Got it.
So if the pitching fails next year, we all know who to blame.
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Oct 1, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"He pissed himself at the trade deadline (again) this year..."
You’ve yet to substantiate this assertion, other than to say that Nick Johnson (ahem) was acquired for a song. Got anything else?
by JDT217 on Oct 1, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haven't you said that
you were optimistic regarding Davis coming into this year? I know you were optimistic about Young turning it around at 3B, which he did. Nobody could have thought Kinsler, Hamilton, and our catching situation would have sucked it up on offense as much as they did. Replacing Bradley is one thing for the offense, but I find it difficult to believe that if the other players on the team did what many expected that the offense wouldn’t have been productive. We expected to mitigate Bradley’s departure with Blalock, who you criticize JD for giving his option the ok when Abreu signed for cheaper, even though that is ridiculous rear-view mirror thinking, and you even figured Blalock was good enough for a 3-year, $30 mil extension. In hitting, Blalock sucked, Davis sucked, Hamilton sucked, the catchers sucked, and Kinsler didnt meet expectations. Is all that because Bradley didn’t come back? Had JD let Blalock go and signed Abreu, would everything have been peachy? Can we put a timelimit on your bullshit for each subject? I understand the need to cry about everything, but can we change the record every once in a while to keep things fresh around here?
by CS3 on Sep 30, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Line spaces ..
http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/9/22/1049043/josey-hank-and-davis
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Sep 30, 2009 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was about
more than Hank vs. Davis though. I am questiong Josey’s Monday morning quarterback view. He questions the Blalock signing, when Abreu was signed for less, yet thought we would be deserving of a big contract. He says the offense wasn’t well put together, but a lot the same players of last year underperformed relative to what was expected of them. I understant the purpose of the other thread though. Thank you for that.
by CS3 on Oct 2, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PECOTA did well
on predicting the struggles of the Rangers offense.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Sep 29, 2009 11:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But "I" did well because the experts agreed with me
Unlike you homers…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Sep 29, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Have another drink, flyboy.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Sep 29, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Homers
Well, those of us who predicted 85-88 wins (including myself) will just have to content ourselves with actually being correct, instead of claiming the moral victory of “hey, I didn’t screw up any worse than most of the experts.”
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Sep 29, 2009 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Odd
I sip my rose colored glass half full iced tea and not knowing any better, come up with 87-75 year after year. I had never realized I would be disappointed to have that “guess” be accurate.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 1, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're awfully lucky I don't make internet bets, Ed
or I’d be cashing a check for a few large seeing as the Ms are on the Rangers’ ass and may even pass by the weekend.
- I said before the season the Ms & Rangers would be fighting it out in the standings and Ed wanted to bet me thousands or a “hundreds if that was all I could afford” the Ms wouldn’t be within 10 games of the Rangers by the end of the season.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh
As true as that is, I wouldn’t call it luck. Lost one baseball related bet ever, to Chris Martin. And it was less than serious. I just don’t take such stuff seriously, nor care much for braggadocio (that’s Italian for being an insecure twit who makes up for it with repetitive loud noises of self praise). You chose not to bet, even though I have to admit I wildly exaggerated the supposed stakes. Had you actually bet, evil forces would have emerged and I win. Now, it’s certain the Rangers aren’t 10 better in the W-L column, and you are (were) right. I was wrong.
Happy?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 1, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and what does that have to do with
Me being disappointed now if the Rangers “only” win 87 ?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 1, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Talk to Dizzy Dean about braggin' -
“It ain’t braggin’ if you can back it up.”
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 1, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, it's a good thing you don't make internet bets
I think a few of us would have really enjoyed collecting on that 73-win prediction.
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
by RCCook on Oct 1, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess PECOTA was due
for a bad year sooner or later.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Sep 29, 2009 7:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if philkid3 will roll out there with another PECOTA campaign this off-season
by oc on Sep 30, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Sep 30, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PECOTA hit the exact number of Texas Ranger wins
for the 2005 & 2006 seasons and also had the 2007 team below .500 when many in here and other places (Evan Grant said 90 wins).
They’ll adjust for Tiny E next year and they should be more accurate.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Sep 30, 2009 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
They shit the bed.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 30, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
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