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Sunday morning Rangers things

The story from yesterday is the ongoing failure of Kevin Millwood to pitch well in the second half.  After the first few months, there was a lot of talk about Millwood having really taken to the Nolan Ryan program, working deeper into games, pitching to contact, getting ground balls when he needed them, and basically turning back into the top of the rotation starter that the Rangers thought they were signing almost four years ago.  There was talk of him deserving an All Star berth or even Cy Young consideration.

The counter to that argument, that the stathead community put forth rather vigorously, was that Millwood was for the same guy he had been in 2008 -- his peripherals were no different, and his great first half was due in part to an improved defense and in part to an incredibly fluky strand rate that was driven by holding opposing hitters to an exceptionally low level of production with runners in scoring position.  The argument was that he'd regress to his expected ERA in the mid-4s in the second half, bringing his numbers up as the season went on.

What we have instead seen is Millwood fall apart in the second half of the season.  Since July 1, he's posted a 5.92 ERA, with 29 walks against just 35 Ks in 59 1/3 IP, with 9 homers allowed.  Millwood had 70 Ks and 36 walks in 112 1/3 innings prior to July, with 14 homers. 

This isn't regression to the mean -- this is Millwood getting demonstrably worse over the last two months, with his peripherals all declining.  And while correlation doesn't always equal causation, one has to seriously question whether this late season fade is connected to the new mantra of pitching deeper into games, throwing more pitches, going one or two more innings than you've done in the past.

Earlier in the year, the talk about no pitch counts and pitchers expected to finish what they start was all the rage around the Rangers, with this new, tougher mindset being credited with the Rangers improved pitching and getting back in the playoff race.  That was crap at the time, of course, and what we now may be seeing is the unintended consequence of pushing at least one veteran starter harder than he's been pushed in recent years -- Kevin Millwood being worn down and out of gas in the last month of the season, when the Rangers are fighting for a playoff berth.

Evan Grant's post-game analysis focuses a lot on Millwood's second half collapse.

Jeff Wilson's game story notes that the Rangers blew an opportunity to gain ground in the Wild Card race, with Boston getting hammered.  Anaheim, of course, beat the Royals again, getting an unearned run against Zack Greinke thanks to an error by Willie Bloomquist that allowed them to get into extra innings, ultimately winning 2-1 in 11.

The S-T has updates on Josh Hamilton and Michael Young.  Hamilton, it sounds like, won't be playing today.

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Comments

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Because I guarantee you as soon as you skip him in the rotation you will have a grievance from the players association on your hands

And it will probably piss off alot of the clubhouse

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 6, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

As much as it would be great to see that

there is no way that happens. He’s going to get to 180 despite what might be best for the team.

Everyone, including Millwood and the team know that he’s basically done. He’s looked completely gassed for 2-3 months now and he’s not going to turn it around. But he’s way too close to having his option vest for the team to just shut him down.

by behindthebag on Sep 6, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

The MLBPA would go nuts

The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...

by Kinslerhomer on Sep 6, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think let him skip a start

and he’ll be at least a little rejuvenated.

by MikeEl on Sep 6, 2009 11:25 AM CDT reply actions  

x
The counter to that argument, that the stathead community I, AJ Morris, put forth rather vigorously

by brettgardner on Sep 6, 2009 11:26 AM CDT reply actions   2 recs

Yeah, Brett

You are right. I’m the only one who said anything about it. Good call, there.

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 6, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

They wouldn't have even needed Cruz

I’m with you OC…what could have been.

by Agreen07 on Sep 6, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Bah

What could have been is KC saying “Uh, yeah, no thanks, we’re keeping Greinke.” They knew what they had before this year. And you can’t really think that the Rangers never approached KC about a possible deal.

Wouldn’t have even needed Cruz, that’s pretty funny.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Sep 6, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

+ Juan

Hank is the elephant in the room. When will he disappear?

by inactive lsb user on Sep 6, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Millwood

Based on looks, which doesn’t mean much, he appears doughy to me. Almost makes me think he came into spring training in good shape and then failed to either have or participate in a decent in-season conditioning program.

by Kyle Mc on Sep 6, 2009 11:36 AM CDT reply actions  

I agree, KMC

He looked fit and sharp at the beginning of the season, as I’m sure the results bore out.

But damn, I guess he thought throwing would keep him in shape throughout the season.

Kinsler had a quote about how much weight he loses during the season, in spite of working out.

Hank is the elephant in the room. When will he disappear?

by inactive lsb user on Sep 6, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Feldman seems to be flourishing

in the new conditioning program prescribed by Nolan Ryan.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"

by Josey Wales on Sep 6, 2009 11:45 AM CDT reply actions  

Absolutely

The 3 times he’s gone 7 innings is testament to that. Why even limit the credit to the conditioning program? It’s clearly just Nolan’s presence.

by brettgardner on Sep 6, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

As much as I love...

seeing you hand JW his ass in every stupid post he makes you know he’s not going to admit he’s wrong about anything, right?

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 6, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Player

It takes a commitment from the player to keep himself in shape both in the off season and during the season. Millwood appears to me to be out of shape or extremely rundown.

by Kyle Mc on Sep 6, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

good point, he's just lazy

HH is that a sock in your puppet or are you happy to see me?

by BigGuns on Sep 6, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

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