Fangraphs projections on Vlad Guerrero and Khalil Greene

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 10, 2010 11:16 AM CST

With the Rangers having added Vlad Guerrero and Khalil Greene to their likely Opening Day roster, I thought it would be worthwhile to go to Fangraphs and see what the projections they have up there have for these two guys.

First, on Vlad:

System	AVG	OBP	SLG
CHONE	.291	.337	.489
Bill James	.305	.369	.508
Fans	.298	.345	.487

The "Fans" projection is subject to change, as more people contribute their projections. My gut feeling is that all of these are overly optimistic...if Vlad matches the projection from CHONE, the most conservative of these three and the one of the three I think is most reliable generally, I'd take that and go home.

Next, we have Greene:

System	AVG	OBP	SLG
CHONE	.239	.292	.406
Bill James	.239	.307	.423

Neither system is optimistic that Greene will be a starting quality player, although CHONE does show Greene as a half a win above replacement, which is good enough for a utility man. I suspect that if Greene can hit more like he did earlier in his career with San Diego, we could see him get some ABs at first base against some lefthanders.

Tweet Comment 20 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I'm really curious to see what Vlad's home/road

splits end up looking like.

by Agreen07 on Jan 10, 2010 11:31 AM CST reply actions

i don't know

2009 had the pectoral muscle and other extra injuries hurting him. Obviously something else could happen like that, but the only injury we know he will have is the general state of his knees/body. As such in 2008 he hit .303/.365/.521 and after recovering in 2009 about the same.

the preceding post was a great success.

by DShep on Jan 10, 2010 11:33 AM CST reply actions

I tend to agree with this sentiment

Guerrero may be declining, but he is declining from incredibly consistent numbers. He has a greater likelihood of rebounding. Last year was the first year in his career that he hit below .300 (hit .295) and had an OBP below .350. In 2007, his OBP was .403, so to think he can’t get on base via walk is ridiculous. Last year was injury plagued, and if he isn’t bothered as much by those injuries, he can do big things in the RBiA.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 10, 2010 11:48 AM CST up reply actions

I agree with you completely

and I think CHONE, Bill James, and the fan projections also recognize that 2009 (110 wRC+) was the only mediocre year of his career. The rest of his career, he has generally been between 130 and 160 wRC+. I think, given his strong second half performance, we can expect something closer to 130 wRC+ than 110; I’d say the average of those three projections (124 wRC+) sounds about right.

by Stephen Rushin on Jan 10, 2010 2:36 PM CST up reply actions

.337 OBP

That’s not great but it’s not really horrible. I’d be happy if he put up a line like CHONE has him at.

But the more I think about him, but the better I think he’ll do. It would be one thing if he had a great first half last year and finished poorly, but it was the opposite. As shep points out above his second half line was better than solid. If Hamilton and Davis can get their shit together this team is going to score many runs. I’m not so optimistic about Hamilton but I think Davis will get himself back into shape. As much as we bitch and moan about Kinsler, he’s good. Things seems to be shaping up.

I’m usually pessimistic but if they acquire a half way decent starter who can give them innings, I think that would push them in front of the Mariners and make them my favorite to win the division.

613photo

by Black Francis on Jan 10, 2010 12:09 PM CST reply actions

Would you want Webb?

by brettgardner on Jan 10, 2010 12:16 PM CST up reply actions

what was his injury?

shoulder or elbow?

What a drag it is being broke.

by tricer on Jan 10, 2010 12:20 PM CST up reply actions

Shoulder.

by brettgardner on Jan 10, 2010 12:22 PM CST up reply actions

eh, shoulder injuries.

Not sure but I don’t think he would be my primary target.

613photo

by Black Francis on Jan 10, 2010 1:29 PM CST up reply actions

I'd be shocked if he was available

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 10, 2010 1:12 PM CST up reply actions

or do you mean

at the trade deadline?

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 10, 2010 1:12 PM CST up reply actions

The only problem I have with looking at post ASB numbers for Vlad

is that he was basically two different players in August and September. In August he was a monster. .337/.389/1.014 In September he was below replacement. .253/.297/.655

I hope we get more of the August Vlad and less of the September Vlad. It almost makes me wonder if he didn’t have a nagging injury that wasn’t big enough for him to sit out but effected his bat enough to make him not produce right.

And that’s my main worry with the Vlad we signed, is he going to be prone to nagging injuries that kill his production. And that is a big worry to me with any older player.

What do voluntary mean?

by JKolar on Jan 10, 2010 10:55 PM CST up reply actions

I see what you did there

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Jan 11, 2010 7:26 AM CST up reply actions

Excuse my naivete,

but do these projections generally come close. Seems to take the organic factor out of sports.

"Ho visto il tuo agire, non solo rendono per me. Basta un sacco di fluff".

by scoop16 on Jan 10, 2010 1:46 PM CST reply actions

wRC+ - WTF?

Can someone refer me to a good primer on Sabermetrics? This metrics are making my head spin.

by Joe Mama on Jan 10, 2010 5:17 PM CST reply actions

typo

make that “these metrics”

by Joe Mama on Jan 10, 2010 5:17 PM CST up reply actions

wRC+

"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence." -- Vince Lombardi

by coolaid on Jan 10, 2010 5:46 PM CST up reply actions

wRC+

wRC+ is a complete offensive statistic based upon how many runs a player creates. It is league and park adjusted. It is probably one of the very best tools to measure a players complete offensive ability. 100 is average. Anything below 100 is below average; anything over 100 is above average. For instance, here is the Rangers projected lineup with wRC+ projections (fangraph averages of Bill James, fans, and CHONE) for next season:

(1) Julio Borbon 107 wRC+
(2) Michael Young 114 wRC+
(3) Josh Hamilton 123 wRC+
(4) Vladimir Guerrero 124 wRC+
(5) Ian Kinsler 127 wRC+
(6) Nelson Cruz 130 wRC+
(7) Chris Davis 119 wRC+
(8) Jarrod Saltalamacchia 97 wRC+
(9) Elvis Andrus 96 wRC+

So it looks like we have three average hitters (Boron, Saltalamacchia, and Andrus) and six above average hitters. To put those numbers in perspective: Albert Pujols normally posts a wRC+ over 170. The weakest hitters like Yuniesky Betancourt posted a 62 wRC+ last season. So I’d so based on those projections, Texas looks to have a solid offense.

by Stephen Rushin on Jan 10, 2010 6:11 PM CST up reply actions