Kevin Goldstein on Elvis Andrus
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 10, 2010 2:00 PM CST
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PrintI get that Kevin Goldstein has been an Elvis Andrus doubter for quite some time, and still isn't sold on him.
That's fine.
But when he says this:
If you think [Elvis] was good last year, especially at the plate, he wasn’t.
It starts to strike me as cognitive dissonance.
Let's start off by looking at BP's stats (Goldstein, of course, writes for BP).
Andrus had a .255 EQA last season, and BP had him at 2.1 runs above average for his position.
Think about that...setting aside the fact that he was 20 years old, setting aside his defense, looking just at his offense relative to his position, Andrus was a slightly above average offensive player for his position in 2009.
I find BP's defensive stats to be sketchy, but even so, they had Elvis at 3 runs above average defensively last season.
So, according to BP, Elvis was an above-average shortstop in 2009. That is, by my definition at least, "good."
Prefer VORP? Elvis was 17 runs above replacement in terms of VORP, good for 16th in the majors among shortstops. And, again, that is an offense-only stat...we aren't talking about defense, or Elvis's age.
What about WAR? Fangraphs has Elvis as a 3.0 WAR player, which is comfortably in the "good" zone. That was 10th in the majors among shortstops.
I'm not sure what more Elvis has to do for him to be considered "good" last year. A shortstop who gives you a .255 EQA and comfortably above-average defense is a good player, period. I don't know if Goldstein was just speaking offhand and hadn't taken a close enough look at what Elvis did last year, or if he's just digging in because of his previous positions on Elvis.
There's also, in that same paragraph, a comment dismissing those who think he can be the next Hanley Ramirez, which I think is pretty much a strawman argument anyway...I've seen no one credible suggest that Andrus is another Hanley Ramirez.
But that doesn't mean that Elvis Andrus wasn't a good player last year. He was roughly average with the bat for a shortstop, he was terrific defensively, and even setting aside his age, he was a quality player.
Goldstein does some great work, but he whiffed on this one.
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Damn did that game suck...
my favorite baseball game when I was growing up was called Baseball Stars for the original NES. Anyone else here play that game? I loved it. Would create a Rangers team just about every year and played it for probably a solid decade.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
YES!
was that the one where you got to build your team? YOu’d just play yourself and make some monster team?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Jan 11, 2010 11:57 AM CST up reply actions
He says
He is going to be a plus-plus defender and a .300 hitter. I’d take that I think.
Had the same reaction reading the Parksie interview just now.
The feeling washed over me tho’ that the only thing that would explain his position on Elvis would be that he highly suspects Elvis is 2/3 years older than he really is but doesn’t have the proof to say it out loud yet. Only legit reason I can think of he might still comfortably play the Elvis-hater role.
Apoplectic in the face of luminous prose.
How could anyone hate Elvis?
"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence." -- Vince Lombardi
Hell, even if Andrus were older
we’d have to be excited about what he’s done. 22, 23, whatever, he’s still an above average SS already in his first year.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
On Martin:
he’s left-handed; he’s Venezuelan; he has a helluva change-up; he has a plus fastball. It’s so rare to find a pitcher his age who is that complete a product. He just needs to refine. He doesn’t have holes in his game. To have that at such a young age is very rare.
I forgive him…
TCU Frogs- #3
"THAT WAS MY SPECIAL MONDAY MORNING TAPE, SPECIAL, FOR YOU!
It's fucking Monday afternoon, you should get out of bed earlier."
by FormerLSBUser on Jan 10, 2010 2:11 PM CST reply actions
Given his offensive expectations going into last year
I’d even go with “more than good.” IIRC (and I’m sure somebody will tell me if I don’t), the general sentiment was that his glove was good enough that the organization would be happy with even a .240 BA.
meta-signature
Andrus
I think he’s going to be a similar player to Edgar Renteria- a guy who hits between .280-300, walks 50-60 times a year, hits 12-15 homers, and steals 30-plus bases while playing Gold Glove-caliber shortstop.
If you look at Renteria’s first few seasons, they’re fairly comparable to what Elvis did last year. I don’t see any reason he won’t develop along a similar path.
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
I think he's Bert Campaneris
Which would be just fine. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/campabe01.shtml
"Ho visto il tuo agire, non solo rendono per me. Basta un sacco di fluff".
The Renteria comps have been coming up for a while.
Even PECOTA had him as RIDICULOUSLY similar. I don’t remember Renteria when he was young, but did he have the glove Elvis is showing off so far?
Check out Elvis' first year
compared to Roberto Alomar’s age 20 season. Not too shabby.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 10, 2010 2:25 PM CST up reply actions
if you compare him to almost any 20 year old season
he holds up fine.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
yeah that's not really the point though
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 10, 2010 7:29 PM CST up reply actions
KG just needs to admit that he was wrong about Andrus
And move on.
All he acknowledges is that comparatively speaking, Andrus is not Hanley Ramirez. Like Ramirez is the only acceptable shortstop in MLB and the only one worth measuring a starting shortstop against. His rationalization just doesn’t make any sense.
all THIS
i was just reading that interview and saw that comment by KG. WTF? I was coming to come here and comment about that, i’m glad you made a post about this…
especially the part about people comparing him to hanley ramirez? can he please tell us who specifically said that??
"Clearly, I've been wrong. VY is awesome." - AJM
It was a topic of discussion a few years ago
Some people think Elvis will develop power and some people don’t. The Hanley comp was thrown around by some people on the message boards suggesting that Elvis could still add power because of his age and his profile and that he could develop into that type of player. I used the Hanley comp to spark some discussion with KG. It obviously worked.
the Hanley comp is a little ridiculous
but the Renteria or even Jeter comps are viable.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
I don't see Elvis hitting 30 HRs within a couple of years
but I do think that his overall WAR can be pretty comparable to Hanley’s. Hanley Ramirez’s defense is pretty much average at best.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I think he can be bizarro Hanley.
Same total value but with more defense and less offense. Sort of like a mirror version.
Is that okay?
Adam, no offense, you're an awesome blogger and a pretty good baseball mind. . .
. . . but I’ll take KG’s opinion on young baseball players over yours. I really don’t mean any offense by that, you’re both smart, it’s just his wheel house. And on these issues, I’ll side with him usually.
Just not this time. Good piece.
huh?
did you even read what KG said about Elvis in that interview? AJM is not trying to be a scout here…he’s just saying that andrus had a pretty dang good year last year, and a good year offensively…
It’s just reasonable statistical analysis.
"Clearly, I've been wrong. VY is awesome." - AJM
There's taking credibility
And the there’s just watching the game. Andrus exceeded expectations last year, and he’ll only get better. It’s obvious KG has a bug in his ass over Andrus. He’s going to be a star here for years, or until management screws it up.
Greetings from the Humungus, the Ruler of the Wasteland, the Ayatollah of Rock and Roll-A. I laugh at your puny plans.
by Lord Humungus on Jan 10, 2010 3:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Am I the only one who caught on
To the fact that Goldstein was kidding when he said that. He later admitted that he was just taking the bait on the question and then said that he’s a helluva player but not Hanley Ramirez. I have no problem with what he said. Read it again.
Agreed
Strawman argument indeed.
Although the point KG made abnout how sub-par of a year Elvis had is also not quite in line with what most of us fans had in mind coming into 2009. Nobody expected Elvis to BE Edgar Renteria his rookie year. Hell we were all just hoping he’d hold his own. He did better than hold his own and performed above average, given age, level and position.
That detraction KG put in there seemed a bit of a stretch.
What's the rumpus?
but the point adam argued is specific to whether andrus was good last year
and he was. the hanley ramirez stuff wasn’t so much a straw man since the question itself referenced hanley
I understand that, but read it again.
It was a loaded question where he says….“Why do you hate Elvis so much”…..so KG starts off by saying that he was awful last year (taking the bait) and rambles on about it….but then he stops and (at least I interpreted it this way) he more or less gives his real assessment of Elvis and says he’s a helluva player. The whole bit about him sucking last year was just that, imo, a bit.
Not a bit
He actually thinks Elvis is a helluva player. He always did, really. He just didn’t think he was great at the plate in ‘09 and he doesn’t think he’s going to be anything more than what he suggested: A plus to plus-plus defender that can hit .290 or .300. It’s really not that complicated.
No
He says he’s “going to be” a helluva a player, but that in 2009, he wasn’t good.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 10, 2010 2:51 PM CST up reply actions
no sir
‘s like the Elvis Andrus thing. I say he wasn’t good in 2009, and everyone tells he that he was for a player so young, or for a player without offensive expectations. I’m talking about without qualifiers. Just taken as a big leaguer last year, offensively, Elvis Andrus was not GOOD by any measurement. Guy had a .329 on-base percentage and just 31 extra base hits over an entire year. That’s not good. He’s certainly GOING to have good years, but 2009 was not one of them.
kg
"Clearly, I've been wrong. VY is awesome." - AJM
those are certainly telling statistics
but is he just ignoring all of the other ones? Or is he just talking about offensive production in absolute terms? He’s really going to say Elvis had a bad year compared to DH’s and COFers? Or does he think we think Elvis had a good year compared to DH’s and COFers? Just puzzling.
i guess if you pick out certain statistics
i follow his argument. but there were many times during the season where he was having the best AB’s on the team. they didn’t necessarily turn into doubles, but he was rarely an easy out.
I now read it and I think I agree with you.
He does seem to be a bit intentionally over-the-top in response to a pretty over-the-top question. I doubt he’d be that condescending if it wasn’t with tongue in cheek.
I don’t think that changes any of Adam’s points, though.
"Is in need of psychology counciling."
It really does seem like a message board response to a message board question.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." -Adam J. Morris
Kinslerhomerun’s signature
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third." Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
This reminds me somewhat
Of KLaw tapping the brakes on Chris Davis last year and everyone jumping down his throat here. Not so much the main post but some of the comments.
This does not really remind me of that.
People were far more volatile, and KLaw had a far more valid point.
Yeah, it may be a bit of a leap
That was just my first impression. I was reading through the comments thinking “Oh no, I hope this isn’t deja vu all over again.”
by BrentTaylor21 on Jan 10, 2010 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
Davis had been in the majors for a few months only, then.
Andrus already has a full season under his belt
I'm sporting my Elvis Andrus jersey today
up yours KG!
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Jan 10, 2010 4:20 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
seems like a matter of semantics
Elvis was slightly above average which is not the same thing as good.
Above average...
is the very definition of good.
by ghostofErikThompson on Jan 10, 2010 11:01 PM CST up reply actions
Well, you can't say
that if average is 50, then 51 is good. Elvis was no doubt about it good last year when you combine his offense and glove value, but his bat alone was about average for SS.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
What I find odd from KG vis a vis Elvis/Profar:
I wouldn’t expect crazy things from Profar in 2010, but I think he can hold his own and I think that’s the key. You hear all this stuff about his make-up and his maturity, but his game is what is really mature.
Does this same argument not carry over in regards to Andrus? Change the name and the year, and I think that’s what the most optimistic would have hoped for from Andrus, and he exceeded that, IMO.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
yep
I remember when KG said how unimpressed he was with Andrus’ season in Frisco a couple of years ago basically saying he didn’t care about how young he was.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
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