Kevin Goldstein's Prospect List/Q&A
by jparks77 on Jan 10, 2010 2:19 PM CST
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PrintRedundancy Police: Posting this here to keep the party going for a few days.
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/1/10/kevin-goldstein-prospect-qa.html
Q: Is Tanner Scheppers and dominant reliever or a top of the rotation starter and when will he see Arlington?
Goldstein: If it were up to me, I would start him in Triple A and get him to the majors as fast as possible, as a reliever. Here’s the thing, Tanner Scheppers is pitching on borrowed time. Tanner Scheppers is going to break. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. HE IS GOING TO BREAK! Every time he throws a pitch in the minors, you are taking a risk. You are wasting your time. You have to be able to reap major league benefits from this talent as soon as possible because at some point between now and the time he is 30 (if not sooner than that), he is going to break. I would fast-track him and get him into the bullpen as soon as possible.
Q: What makes Martin Perez the top LHP in the minors?
Goldstein: The combination of where he is right now (with his age), what he has done so far, and where he can be. This is not the first left-handed teenager to dominate a full-season league and then hold his own at a higher level. It’s just a matter of how he is doing it. He’s not just throwing fastballs by people, he is showing a mature repertoire. As you know, he has very real secondary pitches and a good idea how to pitch. There is so much more to come out of this kid that it’s scary. The Johan Santana comps are unavoidable at this point, and frankly a bit lazy, but you can understand them at least: he’s left-handed; he’s Venezuelan; he has a helluva change-up; he has a plus fastball. It’s so rare to find a pitcher his age who is that complete a product. He just needs to refine. He doesn’t have holes in his game. To have that at such a young age is very rare.
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Question
How do you view Elvis? Are you in the same boat as KG?
"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence." -- Vince Lombardi
For the most part
I think he profiles as an above-average contact hitter with plus speed that should allow him to hit for a high average. His on-base skills should improve as he continues to mature at the plate, but I don’t think he will ever get on base at an extreme rate. I’m not sold on his power potential, mostly because of his extension and his bat plane, but he certainly can hit ropes when he squares up and I think he could eventually hit more doubles than I suggested he would last season.
I think the main thing to take away from KG’s comments is that everybody sees a different game from different lenses and everybody formulates their opinions accordingly. It’s never as black and white as some people like to make it. KG is a guy who talks to scouts and developmental people and he tends to focus on that side of the game. I think it’s great that people rush to champion a player on their team, especially when a respected national voice doesn’t appear to give him enough credit for a very promising rookie season. But it’s also just one opinion, and ultimately, it doesn’t matter.
Bah on Scheppers. How can he bat that certain? Nobody can be that certain about potential injuries, can they?
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
No.
You can be fairly certain of a breakdown when someone is already pitching with an injury, though. In Scheppers’ case, I’m still unsure exactly what is/was wrong with him.
Rumors spread around from legitimate outlets about a stress fracture, a rotator cuff tear, and even a “50% tear” of his labrum. If it was a rotator cuff problem, he’s clearly healed from that. If it was a stress fracture, you should some concern, but he’s changed his mechanics so that’s probably not an issue either.
If his labrum is actually torn (since we know he never had surgery), that remains a concern going forward and will remain one throughout his career, even if he does eventually get surgery. An intact labrum is not a requirement for pitching, though.
by NoNameOnCard on Jan 10, 2010 3:22 PM CST up reply actions
Didn't Darren O'Day
pitch with one all of last year? How much will it affect velocity?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
It will only affect velocity if...
(1) it causes pain
(2) it affects range of motion
(3) the presence of the injury scares the pitcher out of performing at 100%
by NoNameOnCard on Jan 10, 2010 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
And yes...
O’Day chose rehab over surgery for his torn labrum. A torn labrum, though, will basically never heal without surgical intervention.
Rehab in this case is essentially a retraining of the muscles of the shoulder girdle to better support stability of the glenohumeral joint. Maintenance of a strong rotator cuff along with mechanical adjustments in the delivery are key to pitching for a long time with a torn labrum.
by NoNameOnCard on Jan 10, 2010 3:39 PM CST up reply actions
And, IIRC, surgery for a labrum tear requires going through the rotator cuff.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
So ..
Shoulders being what they are, Scheppers’ being what his is, it sounds like it would behoove a lot of pitchers to go to the “independent leagues” before signing with a professional team in the U.S. or Japan?
I just don’t see how else you can generate leverage in a negotiation if you don’t have any college experience, or an “up and down” experience, like the one Scheppers purportedly had.
"Every Indian feels that where the ball is, there he should be, and though they do not altogether abandon an instinctive disposition, the glory of Lacrosse to them is in the exciting chases after the ball. The Indian village game was not intellectual enough for the whites, and needed systematizing; but never let this improvement be carried to such extreme as to spoil its extemporaneous peculiarities of fielding, and the general free character, which distinguishes it above all other field games."
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Jan 12, 2010 4:04 PM CST up reply actions
I don't really understand the question.
by NoNameOnCard on Jan 12, 2010 5:00 PM CST up reply actions
I guess I found the answer myself this time.
"Every Indian feels that where the ball is, there he should be, and though they do not altogether abandon an instinctive disposition, the glory of Lacrosse to them is in the exciting chases after the ball. The Indian village game was not intellectual enough for the whites, and needed systematizing; but never let this improvement be carried to such extreme as to spoil its extemporaneous peculiarities of fielding, and the general free character, which distinguishes it above all other field games."
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Jan 12, 2010 6:15 PM CST up reply actions
Incredible conversation
Really enjoyed this, thanks.
I loved his description of the change:
Change-ups are hard. They are a hard pitch to learn and it goes against everything you think. It’s a mental pitch. It’s a difficult thing to throw.
That said, Guttierrez’s makeup problems sound harrowing. I hope this dude isn’t in the DSM-IV.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
Not bad
at all. I do think that a pitcher can learn to throw an average CU though. Getting from average to a plus pitch takes a little more than just hard work. Gutz not wanting to learn to throw a changeup is just lazy. I think he is a good to excellent 8th inning or closer type honestly.
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Jan 10, 2010 7:44 PM CST up reply actions
I'm sorry if this has already been asked
With Profar being listed as #5 in our system and Andrus just missing the ROY, how does this get worked out? Obviously both are very young, but it isn’t far fetched to imagine them teammates in the near future (especially if Profar becomes impossible to hold back). I can’t imagine the Rangers asking Andrus to change positions, however mch has been said about Profar picking Texas because they viewed him as a SS.
Profar can change positions
If all goes well for Jurick, I can see him starting at 2B when Kinsler’s contract is up.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Jan 10, 2010 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, that's what I'm starting to think.
If things go REALLY well, Kinsler might even be a big trade chip once his contract is down to 1-2 years.
If the Rangers were in the playoffs... the soundtrack could be one long continuous fart, and I would love it. - cmkelly
Profar would be 18 or whatever in 1-2 years
That’s a little quick, no?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 11, 2010 7:36 AM CST up reply actions
not sure of the contract situation
I thought he signed a longer extension, but he was saying when the contract is down to that length (like Teixeira), not in one or two years
ah, yah misread that
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 11, 2010 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Dude, it was a question. I don’t “worry” about the Rangers having two elite SS prospects in the organization.
by Prescott73 on Jan 10, 2010 11:40 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Ok, but that's not even counting your chickens before they hatched,
that’s counting omelets before you even have a chicken to lay eggs. Or something like that.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Fair enough
Should have just made it a hypothetical, if Profar were to become major league ready while Andrus was still our SS, what would you do?
These things have a way of working themselves out
Profar is more than likely going to have change positions since I don’t think Profar takes more than 5 years to be ready (and of course Andrus could sign an extension to be here longer than that). By the time Profar is ready, Young’s going to be just about done with that contract if not already done, so Profar could fit in there. At that time, Young could just move to DH permanently if he hasn’t already. You run the risk of not having a real fit offensively since Profar might not project to hit like a 3B, but he seems to have the tools to be a good fit there defensively.
Moving him to 2B is also an option, but he’s going to be 31/32 at that time. That’s not likely going to be the end of Kinsler’s productive career. He will be a FA right around that time though so the Rangers could have a lot of options to look at with what to do with 2B. You probably also have a few more suitors for the future 2B job than for the 3B job which currently has pretty much no one in the system who could take over even a few years down the road.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Well, we still know
almost nothing about him. Seriously, I guess you could say he can take over for Kinsler at that point, but speculation now is pretty useless until we know a lot more about how his talents develop and what his best position/value might be.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
were you an extra in "Time Bandits?"
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
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