Vladimir Guerrero officially a Ranger

I don’t remember that.

maybe you’re thinking of Rapada

…anything out there?

…Durango Brewing Companies IPA, also 5-Barrell Brewery’s IPA

not that I will have a hard time recognizing vlad.

last season, and I don’t think that’s shocking. McCarthy is 36, Feldman 62, and then Harrison and Holland are 111 and 112 respectively. No one else at least in the top 120 (doin’t feel like looking further). It doesn’t seem like he’s any owrse than your average manager with that.

If you’re scared that Wash is going to let an unqualified player play whether its just getting ABs or if its in the field, Wash not playing Jones should just give you more confidence that he might have some kind of clue on what he’s doing (regardless of what the LSJs and Wailing Joseys say). And Vlad isn’t going to play everyday in RF while Cruz or someone else DHs. If Wash does that and doesn’t realize how horrible it is for the team’s defense, just have faith that JD’s going to step in and fix things.

His bullpen management is definitely his biggest weakness. He puts too much trust in veterans and guys like CJ and FX2 who have more than proven themselves. It was better last year than in the past and inexperienced managers can improve just like inexperienced players; they just sometimes have to learn from their mistakes. I think not having to constantly manage for his job has helped him out as he seemed to make his worst decisions early in the 07/08 seasons when the team was struggling.

I don’t think real dollars is that important in baseball. What does it tell you that a rookie was worth 10 million when no matter how well he played, he was still not going to make more than a few hundred thousand dollars.

The huge difference in pre-FA salaries vs. FA salaries also screws up any kind of dollar value system. I think their system would be better off using the biggest salary for a year for a pitcher and position player as the maximum dollar value and going from their in proportion to that. That would give a more accurate value and avoid having 17 pitchers being worth more than 20 million dollars. But like I said, that still doesn’t make the system that relevant since you have so many players making less than a million dollars. All it really does is give you a different way to look at WAR, but it unfortunately also leads many people to use it as a nearly foolproof way of saying whether or not a player was worth his contract. That’s not what the system tells you and it shouldn’t be used that way.

What I do to value contracts is look at how much they’re getting paid relative to the league vs. where they rank relative to the league. I don’t think you need an exact system to tell you that a player who has a top 10 salary and is a top 10 player is worth that contract nor do you need a system to tell you a guy like Evan Longoria was a great bargain for the Rays in his rookie season.

In the end, you’re worth what someone is willing to pay you. Teams overpay all the time for players that they need even though they know that they likely won’t be worth the contract. That’s what the FA system does. If the Rangers really needed Josh Beckett and overpaid by 10 million dollars because that’s the only way to get him, then that’s what he’s worth to the Rangers. And just looking at a player’s stats doesn’t tell the whole story of how much a player is worth. A guy like Vlad is going to have a hell of a lot more of an impact on overall revenues than a guy like Ryan Garko even if they give you the same WAR.

And really, did you just write “He still hasn’t responded”? Jesus, get over yourself.

and I’ll go point by point as well:

(1) I strongly disagree with you on this point. Regardless of what statistic you use (FIP, xFIP, K/BB ratio, etc), Beckett is one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the AL consistently. And I think it is a little disingenuous to say that Beckett hasn’t been consistent. Really, he has had one mediocre year in his entire career (2006). And even in that season, his xFIP was 4.39.

So rather than FIP, lets use another one of the stats you recommend like xFIP. In terms of xFIP, Becket ranked 5th in the AL in 2009, 2nd in 2008, and 3rd in 2007. So in the last three years, he ranked in the top 5 in xFIP every single season. In terms of WAR, he has ranked 2nd (2007), 8th (2008), and 7th (2009) in the AL. Finally, if we use K/BB ratio, Becket has ranked 5th (2009), 2nd (2008), and 3rd (2007) in the AL.

So using any defensive neutral pitching statistic, Beckett has been about as good as it gets over the last several years. As for consistency, his xFIP and FIP have been under 3.7 every year in the majors, except 2006. I would argue that 7 outstanding seasons in 8 year is about as consistent as get.

Further, I think FIP and xFIP are probably the best available statistics for measuring a pitchers ability. And FIP and xFIP are much better statistics than ERA/ERA+, in my opinion.

(2) I don’t believe that Halladay and Lee are examples that aces are readily available during the off-season and at the trading deadline. Regardless of how much you have to give up in terms of players (we can agree to disagree on that matter), it is still undoubtedly more than a single first round pick.

Second, those players often have to waive their no-trade clause, or require a large extension to do so (see Halladay). Thus you aren’t necessarily saving money.

Third, you mention that trading for an ace isn’t too problematic if the timing is right. But Texas has a limited window over the next three seasons or so in which they can contend for a title. You have to work with the cards you are dealt. I think it is a little risky to rely upon another Cliff Lee to be available next season, without giving up Perez, Scheppers, or Smoak.

And not to mention, the Cliff Lee deal was absolute coup for Seattle, not something I expect the Rangers to replicate going forward. And many sources reported Halladay planned to veto any trade to Texas (plus he wanted a 20+ million per year extension). Also LaPorta is the equivalent of Smoak, and LaPorta only netted a couple month of Sabathia.

(3) We don’t need to belabor this point further. I understand what you are saying, I just think we will be a little further back in terms of development in 2011 than you are predicting (we can agree to disagree there). I still think 17+ million on Beckett, given the projected roster composition in 2011, wouldn’t be a bad investment.

(4) Again, no need to belabor this point. I just think he isn’t any bigger of a health risk than Millwood/Lackey/etc.

Ultimately, we just view Beckett differently. I think all the empirical evidence demonstrates he is an ace pitcher. Absent one single year (2006), he has been a top 5-10 pitcher in the league year in and year out, in terms of FIP, xFIP, K/BB, and other defensive neutral statistics. I think he ranks in the same class as Sabathia/Verlander/Lester, and he is not that much worse than Roy Halladay. I think he could make a heck of a lot of sense for this team, but I do agree that concerns over how he will age are legitimate.