Thinking about Colby Lewis
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 19, 2010 6:50 PM CST
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PrintSo, we now know that Colby Lewis has a two year deal with a pretty reasonable team option for 2012, and barring injury, will be in the team's rotation at the beginning of the 2010 season.
Evan Grant writes that while in Japan, Lewis added a cutter, which, according to Jon Daniels, made Lewis a "premium strike-thrower." Grant says that Lewis is now in the 90-93 mph range on his fastball, as well.
One of the things that is worth noting in Lewis's history is his workload the past several years. He missed all of 2005 due to shoulder surgery, and I think most of us wrote him off at that point. However, he pitched 150 innings between the majors and minors in 2006, and a little over 130 innings while pitching in the rotation in Sacramento and (mostly) out of the pen in Oakland in 2007. In Japan the past two years, he's logged 176 innings in 26 starts in 2008, and 178 innings in 29 starts in 2009.
I suspect that the Rangers look at him and see a guy who is fully recovered from shoulder surgery, and has shown the past four years that he is physically capable of handling a starter's workload. Whether or not he's capable of pitching at an acceptable level in the majors remains to be seen, but he appears to be someone who can eat innings for the team.
And thinking about it, all in all, I have to think that Lewis was brought here to replace Kevin Millwood -- not in terms of being the team's #1 or the leader of the pitching staff, but to replace the 30 starts and 180 innings you would have counted on Millwood giving you.
I lamented the departure of Millwood, not because I thought Millwood was anything special as a pitcher (despite his ERA in 2009, Millwood is an average starter at best), but because I felt the team was better with Millwood in the rotation and everyone else bumped down one rung, giving the team more depth.
Looking at Lewis, in terms of his profile and what he's done the past few years, I think that it isn't unreasonable to believe that his 2010 season will be comparable to Millwood's 2010 season. 170-180 innings with a FIP around 5.00 is probably all you'd expect from Millwood in 2010, and I think that is a reasonable expectation for what Lewis can offer in 2010, as well.
Lewis probably isn't going to repeat his freaky K rate or K/BB ratio that he put up in the Japanese League...think instead something in the Millwood or Scott Feldman ballpark, 5-6 K/9 and a 2:1 K/BB ratio, instead. But with the defense the Rangers will be running out there, that should be good enough for an ERA in the mid- to high-4 range, and if you can get 170-180 innings of that, then you've got a bargain, given the contract Lewis is getting.
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The depth argument
Holland, Hunter, Harrison, Hurley (running out of Hs) can all be sent to AAA. At some point in time some of them will get starts. Possibly a lot of starts depending on injuries (knocking on wood). Lewis should surely provide replacement level production (I think a good amount better).
This is an article I think I pasted a while back. Probably dealing with Kris Benson (barf). But Lewis isn’t Benson. Here’s the gist of some of the article.
How the Ortiz signing does decrease uncertainty is by giving the Twins another replacement-level (or better) starter. There’s something to be said for that: even if Perkins or Garza doesn’t start the season in the rotation, they’ll both probably end up making 10 starts at some point.
To set some parameters, let’s say that the Twins have seven starters—Johan Santana, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, Garza, Perkins, and Ortiz—who they can expect to be replacement-level or better between April and August. If they want to be seven starters deep (a reasonable number, given the variability in pitcher performance and health), they need to ensure that they have seven such pitchers in their organization.
Furthermore, it’s tough to stash starters in your bullpen; while it can be done, a hurler who tosses an inning or two a few times in a week can be hard-pressed to give you five or six innings the next week. Thus, let’s stipulate that the two starters who don’t crack the rotation will have to go to Triple-A.
Garza and Perkins can do that. Ortiz, however, was going to sign a major-league deal somewhere, and the same can be said of the other pitchers of approximately the same skill level (Trachsel, Tony Armas Jr., etc.). In other words, putting Ortiz in the rotation for a while is a necessary sacrifice in order to have seven decent starters in your organization. The alternative for the Twins would be to use Sidney Ponson (or another lesser pitcher willing to go to Triple-A) as the #7 guy and let Ortiz go elsewhere.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/risk-vs-uncertainty/
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
I disagree with your
expectations of outcome. I don’t see Lewis being kind of a LAIE. Either the Japan data is going to hold and he is going to be a strong starter, or he will look about like he has looked the rest of his MLB career, a steaming pile of poop.
I can see him being good or very bad, but average is not something I can see out of him.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
x
I can see him being good or very bad, but average is not something I can see out of him.
Why?
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 19, 2010 7:30 PM CST up reply actions
i think because it depends on the command of his pitches, something he didn't have in the states and the super power he gained in Japan
he’s either going to have it this year or not, and his success (in my mind) is going to come down to which control/command he’s going to have…
If his success hinges on control/command
Then he’s got a pretty good shot at success, because if theres one thing that should translate over from Japan it’s his control command.
I think the real question is how well his ability to miss bats will translate, and how effective his stuff will really be in the majors.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
Command just doesn't seem like something that's a question mark about him anymore
If a guy can throw strikes in the minors, he’s usually going to be able to throw strikes in the majors too – it’s just a matter of what kind of strikes he can throw in the majors and how effective he can be with the pitches he commands. That was Holland’s problem last year.
The same would hold true for a guy who dominated a AAAA league for two years, I would think.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
I agree, I'm not saying that I don't think he'll keep it.....I'm just simply saying that is the main risk, considering how BIG of a difference there was between his command in Japan and The States....But I feel pretty optimistic about it though...
It’s not unheard of though, that a pitcher loses his command, eccspecially a case like this where he had no control and then all of the sudden gained all-world control in Japan…Like I said though I’m not saying he is or is not going to have his command next year.
Because
in my opinion his problems in the major league were mostly mental, grooving a lot of pitches with men on. In the Japanese league, his stuff was amazingly good. If he has fixed his mental issues, he should be better than average.
If he fails, its because he is still a mental midget and is choking under the pressure of MLB.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Interesting thought
but I kind of think that it could be both — he’s mentally not going to choke but his stuff isn’t going to play as well here as it did in Japan and he ends up being average.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Yeah, that's a goofy comment
I’d say Harden fits more into that definition. Harden’s had a history of injuries or very good seasons. Colby’s been pretty healthy for the last few seasons.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
I don't speak for DJCahill but thats what I read from it......and I don't see it as a goofy comment at all
it’s not whether he can give 170 innings, it’s the quality….
and I’m not make a case either way on the quality he’s going to give us, I’m pretty optimistic though.
I agree that translation from japan to MLB is the key
But there’s nothing in his Japanese numbers to give pause. Great K/9 great BB/9 and it sounds like he has a good to very good groundball ratio. Those are the things you can bank on. I’m not expecting a 1:1 ratio of everything but a mild to decent to regression in his numbers is still good. Also, we aren’t talking about a 22 year old kid skipping from AA to MLB. He’s 30 and pitched against hitters that are probably better than AAA. His makeup should be defined now.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
agree with everything you said.
just like I said above….It’s going to depend on whether he keeps the command/control of his pitches this year…..I’m confident he will though
If lewis fails
it won’t have much to do with injuries.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Exactly.
It will be because he’s just not very good. I would really like to see his Japanese stats if anybody knows where to find them. Judging by his MLB stats I’m not very optimistic. Japan and MLB are two completely different leagues, so him dominating over there doesn’t really impress me all that much. Still I would like to see what his FB/GB tendencies are and other things like that.
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
Baseball Cube has them through 2008
And…they’re….spectacular
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
this is what I'm afraid of...
there’s no grey area…..either he’s going to keep the outrageous control and command of all his pitches and be a steal, or if he doesn’t he could have a 6.00+ ERA by the all-star break
that is what I was thinking
or, at least I think that is what the Rangers were thinking. Adam’s idea about them wanting him to replace Millwood is interesting though
Go Rice Owls!
No offense, but
I think the “he’s either going to be really good or really bad” projection of a player/movie/whatever is really dumb. Especially since it seems like most of the things which get this description appropriately turn out to be so-so
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to give us what Millwood would've in 2010
Problem is, I don’t think that’s aiming very high.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
You need to talk to Josey
He thinks losing Millwood cost the Rangers the West this year.
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
I've already tried to discuss the point with Esteban Grande
All I got was a headache.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
I understand
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
With the division being this close right now
I dont see how you could say losing Millwood doesnt hurt the rangers chances. It may not “cost them the division” but it will certainly have some sort of effect. Sucks that we couldn’t keep him.
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 19, 2010 8:02 PM CST up reply actions
The point at the time was...
….that Harden + Millwood > Harden + Ray + Snyder
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 19, 2010 8:12 PM CST up reply actions
Its not wrong
that was the trade….
arguing about this offseason is not fun because there are too many moving pieces.
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 19, 2010 9:02 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not arguing, sorry if it came off like that...
but it is wrong, you can’t look at that trade without bringing Harden into the mix
if the Mavs trade Erick Dampier and Josh Howard for trade exceptions, so they can sign Lebron James….would you say Dampier, Howard > TE……..no, it’d be, Lebron, TE > Dampier, Howard…
True
but this argument basically boils down to the fact that Tom Hicks may have cost us the division title because we had to make a salary dump trade in order to improve the roster. Thats the point im trying to make and failing at it. The Millwood trade was the correct move given all the circumstances, but at the end of the day it may cost us the division. It may not be true but its a good example of just how bad Tom Hicks has hamstrung the rangers
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 19, 2010 9:10 PM CST up reply actions
The problem with your argument
is that basketball has a salary cap and baseball doesn’t. You aren’t going to change the mind of someone that thinks the Rangers SHOULD have been able to keep Millwood and add Harden. The Millwood trade was not to “create cap space”…it was necessary only to keep the Rangers payroll at an unacceptably low level.
For the record, I really don’t care because I think the offseason as a whole has been a success.
i know god damnit, i knew someone was going to miss the point.....but you're a reasonable poster, so I hope you're joking
if i know about trade exceptions it should be obvious that I know about the salary cap, since trade exceptions are directly tied into it….. just making a point
im not trying to convince people that we shouldn't have been able to keep both millwood and harden
I agree with that, just….shit, i really don’t feel like typing the same shit for the 45th time…….my thoughts are somewhere in this thread.,..and i hope the post above didn’t come off rude, because i respect you as one of the reasonable posters. and that post was about to be alot more pissed off lol… untill i saw your name…..cuz when i wrote the post you respnded to, i debated with myself for 5 minutes whether i should reference the salary cap and that i was just trying to make a point……but i figured, it’d be too obvious anyway and then i see your comment, so sorry if it came off bad.
Again
I agree that, in the end, the Rangers are a better team so I don’t really care. My comment was merely from the perspective of an objective third party eves dropping on an argument.
One guy says, "The Rangers should have been able to keep Millwood and ADD Harden (because we are the 5th biggest media market, had increased attendance last year, our payroll is incredibly low, etc etc). Because, as this person argues, the Harden signing should have been done regardless of Millwood, it’s not technically fair to consider him as part of the return for trading Milly.
The other guy (you) says, “Well, we HAD to trade Millwood in order to afford Harden.” Because the Millwood trade was NEEDED, as you argue, to acquire Harden we have to consider Harden as part of the trade. In order to make the argument that the Rangers NEEDED to cut payroll, you provided a basketball analogy.
So again, objectively, I think the first argument is much more sound the second. Personally, I think you would have a hard time explaining why a successful franchise in a large media market with a low payroll needs to cut payroll in order to add a $7 million free agent.
But in the end, who the hell cares? The roster is what it is, and I think it’s better than last year’s.
I remember the post you're referring to... but as you're saying in this post is that Lewis gives us the inning eater insurance policy that Millwood would've given us
and Plus Millwood breaks down in the second half and might even hurt us in a playoff series…….I don’t see how we can fit both him and Harden in the rotation, if you’re expecting both Holland, Feliz, and maybe Harrison to come up from the minors……….IMO Millwood is only worth anything to this team as an LAIE as basically an insurance policy to balance the innings Harden and co. give you…We don’t really need that with Lewis and all the spot starters we have and all the guys waiting in the wings on the farm…
I’m not saying whether or not it wouldv’e been nice to have been able to keep him and sign Harden, if Hicks hadn’t screwed the pooch…I’m with you that it sucks that Hicks is a dumbass FF, but we don’t really NEED Millwood now and a case can be made that if we’re a playoff contending team that we’re in a better position now that we don’t have to rely on a guy that breaks down after the all-star break and costs you $13 mil..
and a case can be made that considering Lewis' consistency in Japan that, there's just as much of a chance of Millwood breaking down this year than Lewis reverting back to his old form
if the “proven commodity” argument was coming into play…and one is over $10 million cheaper…….
I’m not stating my opinion on which one i would rather have, just making the case that should be looked at when trying to bring Millwood’s name into this discussion
I’m really not sure whether I’m playing devil’s advocate or not….
I still think
that Millwood could be more insturmental in helping the Rangers win the division than Lewis.
Its really a pointless argument. You are right that it was a salary dump and it would have been nice not to have to dump Millwood for nothing especially when its reasonable to think the rangers can contend this year. Just not sure any of these moves make us significantly better than we were last year. I think the rangers are better now than they were at the end of the season but not sure its enough to get them over the hump.
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 19, 2010 8:59 PM CST up reply actions
When did I say that?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
You said...
…The Rangers are a worse team without Millwood.
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
Link the exact quote
and put it in context.
I haven’t made any predictions about the AL West and won’t do so until we’re deep into spring training.
I don’t know what the Rangers are right now muchless what to expect from them in the AL West for a variety of reasons including that I don’t know how many innings to expect from Harden in 2010.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
The last part
is fair. I think that is reasonable.
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on Jan 19, 2010 8:52 PM CST up reply actions
Here is your favorite line
I’m lazy go look it up yourself.
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
Which means you lied your ass off about it
yet again.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Shut the fuck up Josey
You spout shit off all the time and never provide a link. You said when the Rangers traded Millwood and signed Harden that the Rangers were a worse team than they were last year. Oh my how are they going to replace Millwoods IP!!!
The Rangers are a better team right now than what they were last year. I know it’s hard for you te hear that becasuse you hate JD but its the truth.
Get Hanks balls out of your mouth.
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
This
is what I said.
“I don’t know what Millwood is going to do next year and maybe he needed to be replaced but to actually improve the team from last year, Harden/Dusty Tits are going to need to do better than Millwood did last year.”
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
by Josey Wales on Jan 19, 2010 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
Other Starters
I too thought Millwood had value in his ability to throw 180+ pitches, and I think Harden is a good bet to throw 150 innings. Still, I am not going to let the departure of Millwood’s innings have me think poorly of the Harden signing. Besides, with so many pitchers under contract the Rangers can mix and match to replace Millwood’s innings. Right? I don’t know, so I ran through all the ML teams to see how many pitchers logged 180 or more innings pitched. The breakdown is as follows:
AL
NYY – 3
BOS – 2
TBR – 3
TOR – 1
BAL – 1
MIN – 2
DET – 2
CHW – 3
CLE – 0*
KCR – 1
LAA – 2
TEX – 2
SEA – 1
OAK – 0
NL
PHI – 2
FLA – 2
ATL – 3
NYM – 1
WSN – 1
STL – 3
CHC – 1
MIL – 2
CIN – 1
HOU – 2
PIT – 2
LAD – 2
COL – 3
SFG – 3
SDP – 1
ARI – 2
*Lee did throw 152 innings for CLE before getting traded, and then thew another 79.2 for PHI
Teams with only one pitcher who threw 180+ innings did not fare well in the standings by the end of the year (the one exception being CHC, but Lilly did throw 177 innings for the Cubs). In fact, the average team with one “workhorse” pitcher finished roughly 21 games back. Then there were the teams like Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Astros who had 2 workhorses and yet finished last or at the bottom of their division. This is far from scientific, but it seems there is a stronger correlation to those teams with more than one workhorse and their placement in the standings. As such, I’d rather the Rangers go with Lewis as opposed to mixing and matching.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jan 19, 2010 7:38 PM CST reply actions
in reality, what are you expecting Millwood would've given us next year in terms of quality, whether it was 180+ innings or not?
I’m not saying you are, but people seem to be assuming Millwood will repeat the performance of the first half of last season…
and John Koronka might be able to give us 180+ innings but that doesn’t make us better off for it, but I guess if a team lets a pitcher pitch 180+ innings then he is atleast a LAIE… so nvm…
x
people seem to be assuming Millwood will repeat the performance of the first half of last season…
I don’t think anyone is assuming that.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 19, 2010 8:48 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think anybody else in MLB
shares your vision of Lewis getting 175 IPs with a 4.00-4.50 ERA.
Pitchers like that on the open market cost a lot of money. See Suppan, Lilly, Meche. They all received $ 10-11 million per for at least four years.
If the Orioles felt the same way, why wouldn’t they make a play for Lewis at $ 3.5 million and use the rest on somebody else?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Where did I share a "vision"...
…of Lewis getting 175 IPs with a 4.00-4.50 ERA?
I said I saw him as a 170-180 IP guy with a FIP of around 5.00.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 19, 2010 8:58 PM CST up reply actions
He's probably thinking of this
But with the defense the Rangers will be running out there, that should be good enough for an ERA in the mid- to high-4 range, and if you can get 170-180 innings of that, then you’ve got a bargain, given the contract Lewis is getting.
He’s just a tad off with the numbers.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 19, 2010 9:01 PM CST up reply actions
Pardon me, Oh Great One
“that should be an ERA in the mid-to-high 4 range, and if you can get 170-180 innings of that, then you’ve got a bargain, given the contract Lewis is getting.”
If enough MLB teams felt that way about Lewis doing that in 2010, he would have received a helluva lot more than 2 years / $ 5 million.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Lewis
But how many teams are scouting the Pacific Rim heavily, and know Lewis’ potential like the Rangers do?
I’d venture that answer is one, and it’s the team that just signed him.
But hey, JD did this deal, and we all know that in your eyes, JD = Everything Bad. I’m sure that if Nolan had negotiated this one, you’d be falling all over yourself finding ways to praise his intelligence.
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
There are several players in The Show who have played in Japan
which makes me assume there are also several teams scouting the Pacific Rim for talent, especially pitchers.
So who’s bringing up the Nolan / JD Dynamic now? Certainly not me.
Make no mistake, no matter how Lewis does in 2010, this (and the entire off-season has been) is a JD deal all the way.
JD loves pick up a player or pitcher and then require them to do something they either didn’t do last year or has never done in their career.
Colby Lewis turns 31 this season, has been in 5 different major league organizations and has a career 6.45 ERA in 217 IPs in The Show.
Yet, he’s been given nearly $ 6 million and a spot in our rotation by JD.
This should end well.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Jan 19, 2010 11:33 PM CST up reply actions
Hope springs eternal...
C’mon man, have a little faith. You should be able to enjoy this team, instead of thinking worst case scenario.
I understand the cynicism, being a lifetime Ranger fan, but that’s what’s gonna make it so sweet when it happens.
Considering budget restraints, this has been a pretty exciting offseason. Sure, there’s question marks, that’s sports.
Jump on board brother, there’s still room
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
It
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Jan 19, 2010 11:41 PM CST up reply actions
It's been a very active off-season and JD has definitely "looked busy."
I don’t think we’ve moved backwards but I’m having a hard time figuring out where we’ve improved. Our glaring team weaknesses of 2009 are still just as glaring.
Colby Lewis seems like somebody who should be considered AAA depth and nobody that you’d be giving $ 6 million and the ball every 5 days.
If he was really good, more teams would have been after him and he would have been a helluva lot more expensive. That is, unless the Rangers Pacific Rim Job knows more than everybody else.
I’m not a fan of Brandon McCarthy at all but he’s a better pitcher than Lewis. I’d rather see Harrison, Holland or CJ being given a chance to start than watching a 31 year old Cobra Lewis throw down a 6.00 ERA while killing our bully every 5 days.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Jan 19, 2010 11:52 PM CST up reply actions
To dove tail off this thought...
Has there ever been a big league pitcher who sucked it in The Show for several years, went to Japan to get his act together and then came back to The Show and had a successful career?
I know it happens with hitters but I can’t think of any pitchers.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Jan 19, 2010 11:56 PM CST up reply actions
Not that I know of.
Then again, how many times has a #1 overall pick been suspended from baseball before ever playing in the bigs, and then become an MVP candidate a decade later. Shit happens.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
How about
Haywood Yablome?
Who gives a shit what Josey says.............................
by Lil' Jonny Donuts on Jan 20, 2010 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
But, are you excited for the season?
Are you hoping this is our year?
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
I'm ALWAYS excited about baseball season
starting (still 2.5 months away) and ALWAYS hope it’s our year as well. The fact that Tom Hicks is being tossed out in humiliating fashion is also a plus.
I haven’t fully processed what this team is just yet but I don’t think they’ve improved enough to win the 95+ games it usually takes to make it to post-season.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Jan 20, 2010 12:09 AM CST up reply actions
Good deal.
I know you’re a fan, you should be able to enjoy it.
I think we got a decent shot at the West this year, as a building block for the upcoming years. i.e. a fully stretched out, maturer Holland, Feliz, Perez, Main et al.
It’s the most exciting time to be a Rangerite since I’ve been a fan.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
I think your scale is off a bit
If he was really good, more teams would have been after him and he would have been a helluva lot more expensive.
The fact that scouts and teams think he is good is the reason he got as much as he did. It’s quite the opposite of teams thinking he’s not very good and that kept the price down.
Your starting point on all this is out of whack.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 20, 2010 7:45 AM CST up reply actions
For wondering if Lewis
can give up 175 IPs with an ERA between 4.50-5?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Jan 19, 2010 11:34 PM CST up reply actions
Adam's statement was just simpler than you are making it
either
a) you must disagree that his 5 FIP will translate to a 4-4.5 ERA
or
b) you don’t think that if he pitches 170 IP, he would be a bargain (and you already expressed otherwise)
not even a 4-4.5 ERA
He used 4.50 as the high end which I think is pretty reasonable. Lewis could bomb big time, but a 5 FIP with this defense and an arm that can eat 180 or so innings has some value as a good back of the rotation guy. And at that price, its a solid risk to take. The more I think about this move, the more I understand why its necessary even though I’d rather see one of the younger guys start in the rotation.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
well if he doesn't then we didn't really lose anything....because without the first half of last year, his stats wouldn't have left anything to be desired
BTW I’m not referring to you, I know where you stand and I agree with what you’re saying and said in the past… But for you to say that you don’t think anyone assumes that is kinda weird, considering a guy a couple of posts up said that losing Millwood is what hurts our chances of making a run at the divsion title, he stopped short of saying it cost us the title but still…….and for anyone to hold that opinion they’d have to expect him to repeat the first half because if he doesn’t repeat the first half to balance out the second half, then he might even be below average this year(considering age regression, etc.) which means there’s nothing desirable about the aspect of keeping him, because even if he gives you 180+ innings, there’s a very good likely hood of them being below average if he doesn’t get off to a good start under the realistic assumption that he’s going to regress because of age and his second half will be worse……..
I never said he would repeat the first half
I said losing him hurts our chances at the division title. He wont repeat his first half numbers. He probably also wont repeat his second half numbers
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 19, 2010 9:04 PM CST up reply actions
I know you didn't say that.....but for you to think it hurts us, you have to assume he's going to be better than below average, which is what he was and has been the second half....
so you’d have to assume that he’s going to do well the first half if you expect losing him will hurt us……I don’t know why I’m doing this, i don’t even give a shit to be honest…
and I don’t hate Millwood, I know it’s probably going to look like that……..
League Average
On the whole, I’d expect Millwood to be around league average. If he starts out strong and then tapers badly, then so be it. In reality, the really dominant performances are going to come from Harden, Feliz, and Holland. Will they start the season in the rotation, get called up halfway through the season, or stay in the bullpen? Who knows, and I don’t think it matters. The Rangers need somebody to pitch deep into the game without it getting out of hand.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jan 19, 2010 8:53 PM CST up reply actions
It'll be interesting to see the contract Garland gets
Lewis should be capable of at least matching his performance.
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
Or Pavano, Washburn, etc.
there are several guys out there who will make more money than Lewis that I expect to pitch the same or worse.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
The only difference between
lewis and those two starters are you know what your going to get thats why they will cost more.
This may be slightly ignorant, but...
Why does everyone seem to think Washburn is just average? I know he hasn’t been a Cy Young candidate or anything, but didn’t he have an ERA in the low 3-high 2 range last season? That’s gotta be a sign the guy is at least a little better than average…
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Jan 20, 2010 12:44 AM CST up reply actions
i agree with you
on Lewis having a season comparable to Garland’s IMO or maybe better.
I'd be willing to bet it
Maybe not innings but probably FIP
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Season prediction if he stays in the majors
12-9 4.32 ERA 187 inn k’s 143
Hmmmm
with 187 innings and a 4.32 ERA I would think more like 16-9. And if he gets a few breaks, he could see 17-7 or something like that.
I would predict a 2009 Feldman result, similar record and ERA.
"we’re a bunch of knee-jerking yahoos who like new and shiny things." -- FirebatM3 July 10, 2009
And I would take that all day long
If he had that line. There is your innings to replace Millwood.
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
Id take
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on Jan 19, 2010 8:54 PM CST up reply actions
Thats alot of k's in 187 innings
Looks pretty similar to Hollands 2011 season…
by groundingout on Jan 20, 2010 12:56 AM CST up reply actions
he does that we're in the playoffs.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Jan 20, 2010 6:22 AM CST up reply actions
Feldman
he did have a 3.79 ERA as a starter, i still see a garland type season from Lewis or a little better who knows these days. Baseball is so unpredictable. and who knew Feldman would get a cy young vote lol.
Your title is creeping me out.
It sounds like he just broke up with you or something and now you’re pining for him.
Here you go
It can be yours for a lot less than an MLB jersey… Hiroshima Carp Jersey
"we’re a bunch of knee-jerking yahoos who like new and shiny things." -- FirebatM3 July 10, 2009
Did you see their caps?
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Jan 19, 2010 10:06 PM CST up reply actions
BEST CASE SCENARIO
If enough of us wear Carp jerseys to the game and chant a little Japanese, he might think back to his JPB days and forget he’s a Texas Ranger.
I still believe Holland will be the #5 starter
Durrett had this snippet in his article about Lewis today:
Tommy Hunter has the inside track to another spot, leaving Derek Holland, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz and C.J. Wilson fighting for the No. 5 starting job. Daniels said he’d prefer to have a lefty claim a position in the rotation, but the club will go with the five best no matter which arm they use.
I don’t think this team is set on giving McCarthy the final spot in the rotation. They have the depth to trade McCarthy, and he has experience as a long reliever in the past. I also don’t think that McCarthy gives you anything more than say Harrison or Moscoso. (And most projection systems seem to agree) Holland seems to be a good bet to give you at least a 5.00 FIP, with a significantly higher upside. McCarthy seems to be a good bet to give you a 4.75-5.00 FIP with a considerably lower ceiling.
Maybe I am just biased towards Holland. But I think that if he comes to spring training throwing the ball well, he will be given the fifth spot in the rotation. He could probably pitch 170 IP without any concern over his innings total, which seems about right for a #5 starter. He probably has the highest upside of any starter outside of Harden and he would give the rotation a lefty.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 19, 2010 10:44 PM CST reply actions
Whoops
This was supposed to be in Adam’s roster projection thread. My bad.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 19, 2010 10:47 PM CST up reply actions
That could also mean give Harrison a good chance as well
Although I wouldn’t count McCarthy or Harrison as one of our 5 best arms.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
I agree
Ultimately, I think McCarthy offers us basically the same level of production as Harrison, Moscoso, Nippert or Mathis. Here is how the various projection systems view McCarthy, Harrison, Moscoso, Nippert, and Mathis:
McCarthy: 4.58 FIP (James), 4.63 FIP (CHONE), 4.73 (Marcel)
Moscoso: 4.38 FIP (CHONE), 4.48 FIP (Marcel)
Harrison: 4.39 (James), 4.99 (CHONE), 4.91 (Marcel)
Nippert: 4.44 (James), 4.28 (CHONE), 4.52 (Marcel)
Mathis: 4.16 (James), 4.32 (CHONE), 4.44 (Marcel)
They all look pretty similar. (Mathis probably shouldn’t be grouped here, since he being projected as a reliever though) Previously, I think most people saw McCarthy as someone with the upside to post a 4.00 or below FIP at some point in his career. But now that his fastball is sitting in the high 80s and he can’t regularly throw his plus curve without hurting himself, I don’t think people view him as a high ceiling starter anymore; he looks like another #4 caliber arm, much like Harrison, Nippert, Moscoso, etc.
Holland’s projected FIPs look pretty similar to those other candidates: 4.78 FIP (CHONE) and 4.77 FIP (Marcel). But I think the one big difference between McCarthy/Moscoso/Nippert/Mathis/Harrison and Holland is that Holland projects as a possible TORP.
I think this team is better if they give Holland every chance to lock down a rotation spot. And I think McCarthy would be a prime trade candidate; he doesn’t give this team anymore than Moscoso, Nippert, or Harrison. Even if we trade McCarthy, we have ample depth between Feldman, Harden, Lewis, Hunter, Holland, Harrison, Moscoso, Nippert, Feliz, and Mathis.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 20, 2010 12:13 AM CST up reply actions
and I can see CJ winning that battle
if it was just between the lefties…
question: if CJ does start this year, are we fine plugging the gap with our offseason acquisitions and throwing Holland back into the pen?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 20, 2010 12:07 AM CST up reply actions
McCarthy going to the bullpen
could give him some time to try and build some stamina and work on his new mechanics while still helping the ML team.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Possibly, but the bullpen is awfully crowded...
Francisco, Wilson, O’Day, Oliver, and Nippert are all locks for the pen. In addition, Ray is probably a lock if he is healthy, although I am still confused about whether he can be optioned to AAA. I thought he had too much ML service time, but I’ve seen media publications claiming he had options left. That means, in all likelihood, 6 spots are already filled before we hit ST.
So it seems like putting McCarthy in the bullpen would cause the Rangers to send Feliz to AAA to start the season. I’d think they would want to limit Feliz’s innings. So Feliz will probably be in the bullpen for part of the season, be that in AAA or MLB. For the team’s sake, if Feliz is going to spend time in the bullpen, I’d rather he do it at the ML level. And regardless of role, Feliz is one of the best pitchers we have and would benefit this team in any role in 2010. I don’t want to see him spend much time at AAA.
I really think, given the plethora of other average starters in the Rangers system (Moscoso, Nippert, Harrison, Mathis, etc), it might make more sense to trade McCarthy if you can something of reasonable value. Feliz is going to get some time in the ML rotation this year. Nippert is a viable long-man/6th starter, and Harrison/Moscoso are strong insurance at AAA. Even Mathis could be an acceptable #5 starter should we need 10+ starters.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 20, 2010 1:19 AM CST up reply actions
Yes
In 2003, he was the #32 ranked prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, one spot ahead of Josh Hamilton and just below Adrian Gonzalez, Cliff Lee and Rich Harden.
In 2002, he was the #82 ranked prospect in baseball.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 19, 2010 11:52 PM CST up reply actions
wow
so if he pitches somewhere between Lee and Harden, and Harden stays healthy, it’s going to be a VERY good year (not saying the ranking is indicative of what he can/will provide)
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 20, 2010 12:08 AM CST up reply actions
He'll get more than Howard I would think.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Jan 20, 2010 6:28 AM CST up reply actions
$13M
will buy a lotta weed.
It’s Advil and beef in the Texas Rangers, you yankee bastard.
- Nolan Ryan
The good stuff too.
Not that sticks and stems he’s used to getting in SF
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch"
-Gdawg
Japan vs. MLB translation
I’ve seen a lot about Lewis’ great numbers translating to average/slightly above average numbers here. Question: if we take a dominant starter, like healthy Johan Santana or Harden, and send them over to Japan, would we see a ridiculous set of data returning? or does it top out close to Colby Lewis’ numbers?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 20, 2010 12:09 AM CST reply actions
Jeepers, when the troll shield crashes
This entire blog seems like one old man fighting over gargling his balls or Hanks…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Browsing LSB without a troll script is like browsing the net without an adblocker
If you haven’t done it in awhile, it’s extremely noisy and distracting.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
You use the term "jeepers" and have
the gall to call anybody old?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
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