More on the Colby Lewis signing
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 20, 2010 2:15 PM CST
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PrintThe Transaction Oracle offers its thoughts on the Colby Lewis signing...and while there are several paragraphs, the first sentence is a good summation of TO's take:
Terrific, terrific signing by the Rangers.
ZiPS projects a 4.39 ERA in 176 innings from Lewis as a Ranger, and while, as Szymborski notes, there's more potential variance in it because of the issues regarding Japan to US translations, something close to that would make this signing a steal for Texas.
Evan Grant also offers thoughts on the Lewis signing and what it means, noting that a lot of teams are trying to be sure they can go 7 or 8 pitchers deep with their starters, to provide for quality depth and insurance in case of injuries or struggles. Grant thinks Brandon McCarthy will start the season in AAA, although given his service time, I'm not sure he can be optioned without clearing waivers.
UPDATE -- Just saw in the comments at BTF that CHONE has a projection for Lewis, as well...3.86 ERA in 168 innings. I'd take that.
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But
would the return on BMac be worth more than the insurance he provides in the rotation if he’s healthy?
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 20, 2010 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
Frankly, I'm not sure he's got just a ton of value, but in the words of Boba Fett:
“He’s no good to me dead.”
by jam0152 on Jan 20, 2010 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I would assume he'd be worth a good amount as PART of a trade
not the centerpiece; but what are we targeting: catching? another starter? we don’t need a DH or anything else, really…
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:26 AM CST up reply actions
pun intended?
$2.5 million a year is, in the big pitcher of things, a rather small sum.
you decide
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Agreed.
Why the hell did Lewis come so cheap?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Why was Ian Kinsler a 17th-round draft pick?
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
Who knows
Better scouting by the Rangers, maybe he’s been on the Rangers radar longer than others, maybe the Rangers have been talking to him longer, maybe because he’s familiar with the organization and vice versa, could be a lot of reasons.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
The problem with this argument:
I knew about Colby Lewis’s spectacular numbers in Japan from reading basic news articles… I’m sure other teams did as well
Hmm?
That’s really not a problem with his argument. Did you see what he wrote?
by brettgardner on Jan 20, 2010 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
haha apparently not
it’s tough to comment in class without being caught
where i disagree, then, is that Colby’s relationship with the Rangers affects JW’s argument as to whether other teams were willing to offer more money. (i.e. if the Yanks had offered Colby $5 or 6 mil a year for a couple years, the ongoing conversation and relationship b/w colby and the rangers would not have mattered)
No, I think
that if another team offered about the same as the Rangers he might have come here instead, though. I think it’s likely that the Rangers were more willing to go multiple years than the other teams interested.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Maybe baseball is full of morons like you
who think what the guy did in shouldn’t count for shit…
I think it's as simple as
the reasons that so many here are so skeptical. There is unquestionably risk in this signing that isn’t in a signing of most established MLB starters. In my opinion there is just a good deal more upside for the money, as Dan said.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 20, 2010 4:30 PM CST up reply actions
What about when
the Cards went and got Chris Carpenter as a reclamation? They took on a well calculated risk and hit the jackpot value-wise in comparison with the market.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 20, 2010 4:43 PM CST up reply actions
why
does Elmer Fudd have trouble with the letter R?
Who gives a shit what Josey says.............................
by Lil' Jonny Donuts on Jan 20, 2010 5:03 PM CST up reply actions
I have seen that commercial 50 times.
And I laugh out loud everytime. I’m serious. I love it.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch"
-Gdawg
Yeah.
Even in the 4.5-4.8 range, I’d say it’s a great value pick. Realistically, we’re going to need some sub-4.4 ERAs from some starting pitchers to really contend. If you get that from Colby friggin Lewis for $2.5 Million…they may need to invent an award for JD if that happens.
Really though, if he slots in as a good 3/4 with an ERA around 4.6, I’d call that a win.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 20, 2010 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
healthy Harden and Feldman
should be giving us sub 4 ERAs. If Lewis slots in below 4.5 and we just get innings from the other 2 slots, and our bats revive, it’s going to be a fantastic year.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:29 AM CST up reply actions
I don't know
if he has an ERA under 5 I’d be excited – anything in the 4’s. But yes, below 4.50 is huge return…
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
so CHONE has Lewis as our Ace
3.86 ERA would be an incredible bargain
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
That seems crazy to me
But i guess his Japanese ERAs have been sub-3, and they generally go up .5-.75 when they come over… what a deal if it works out that way
That simply doesn't make sense.
Pitchers on the open market that perform that way get at least $ 10 million per for four years.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
I'm with you on that
I think it’ll prove to be a success, but THAT much of a success? If that were the case, wouldn’t nearly every team try to get in on the second coming of The Cobra? Anywhere in the range of 165ish innings and 4.50ish ERA and I’ll be quite pleased considering A) his salary and B) that’s what Millwood would’ve brought to the table this year (at something like 5 times the salary)
"Does this effectively hide my thunder?"
I think the problem with that theory
is that there are so many other intriguing arms ahead of him with histories of success in the ML level: Sheets, Escobar; then the steady arms: Garland, etc.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:31 AM CST up reply actions
Which are you more comfortable with?
A projection based on his statistical track record that takes into account the performance of other pitchers who made the Japan to US transition
or
A projection based on what sort of contract he got, which has a lot more to do with variables completely unrelated to his actual pitching ability (such as which teams have money and how much, and how other GMs/scouts “feel” about the Japan to US transition and the weight to give to his US history (which may or may not be correct, logical, or grounded in anything more than gut feelings)?
I think you’re much safer basing a projection on past statistics than contract size, personally.
Personally, I bet the variance on this projection is much, much larger than normal, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he did considerably worse (I’d be ecstatic with the projected numbers). But I also think the Rangers got a nice deal (a) because I expect that his (brief, years-ago) stateside track record scared teams off, (b) because of the variance, nobody is willing to pay as much for probable success as they are for guaranteed success, © and also the general economic situation for teams this offseason.
I agree that it doesn't make logical sense, but sometimes there are inefficiencies to exploit on the open market
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Internet greatness http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/11/10/1125340/will-carroll-calls-out-josey-wales
Are you f'n kidding me?
Do you actually think dumb ole Donuts could find a market ineffecieny? That Beane’s territory and I’ll be damned if you’re going to malign Wails this way.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
I'll have no choice but to give some
credit to JD if the Cobra Lewis signing works out well.
I just have a hard time believing he’s going to do well because I don’t know of anybody who sucked it in The Show, dominated in Japan and then came back and was successful in The Show.
Couple that with the fact that Lewis is 31 years old this season and came relatively cheap given some of these projections (are you telling me Seattle & LA couldn’t have used him?) and yeah, I’m a little skeptical.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
this is a bit like
ajm saying ross is a better prospect than profar because he got a bigger signing bonus
Cecil Fielder says hi
Or are you just talking about pitchers?
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
I'm well aware of Cecil Fielder
and hell yes I’m talking about pitchers.
Know of any who came back and were successful?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Not offhand
But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
Another Non-Pitcher
The immortal Julio Franco spent 1995 and 1998 in Japan, then spent 2000 in South Korea and 2001 in the Mexican League before coming back to the majors late in 2001, spent 7 more years in the majors, THEN spent 2008 in the Mexican League before finally retiring in 2008.
Americans pitching in japan is pretty rare
Kip Gross crossed the pond and then came back, but didn’t fare very well stateside. The difference is that Gross spent 5 years there, and didn’t return until he was 34.
Bill Gullickson spent 2 years in japan (1988 and 1989) then returned to have a very good 5 year career between the Astros and Tigers including a 20 win season in 1991. He returned at age 31, which is a bit closer to Lewis (who turns 31 in August)
Mike Holtz was another, but he didn’t pitch much in either Japan or in the states after he returned.
Dan Miceli (the well-travelled one) spent part of 2005 in japan, but returned to the Majors for the rest of that year, and one other.
Pete Walker spent the 2004 season in japan, then came back for a 2005 season, but he was pretty much washed up by that point.
John Wasdin spent the 2002 season in Japan, then came back for 5 more years of mediocrity before returning to Japan in 2009, where he still pitches today
there are other, I’m sure
Nice info, thanks
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Without researching this point, I'm going to assume that none of them put up anything close to Lewis's Japan numbers
Thanks for the info.
I’ll also note that Josey is ignoring the scouting side of this. Lewis is not the same pitcher he was in the US:
Perhaps the biggest adjustment Lewis made in Japan, was developing a cut fastball, which also turned Scott Feldman into a competitive starter. The cutter, combined with more command of the fastball, made Lewis a “premium strike-thrower,” GM Jon Daniels said.
Link. We would not be bringing Lewis back if he had not substantially improved while in Japan. It’s foolish to say that Lewis will suck simply because he sucked when in the US the first time.
It’d be interesting to see if any of the pitchers iblum listed made such substantial changes. I’m guessing the answer is no (which would also explain why none of them replicated Lewis’s level of dominance in Japan).
That's a stupid argument, and you're stupid for making that argument
MLB is filled with market inefficiencies. Here are a few Rangers examples: Josh Hamilton was a Rule 5 pick, Ian Kinsler was a late round pick, Darren O’Day was a waiver pickup, etc.
Let’s take your Troy Glaus example. If Glaus is such a steal at $2M, then why didn’t any of the other 29 teams sign him? Clearly, Glaus can’t be very good if he only will make $2M.
If there weren’t any market inefficiencies, then there would be no such thing as a good signing, a bad signing, or really, any reason to play the games at all because all future performances would be a certainty. This is where projections and scouting come into play, two topics that you generally fail at. Now, just repeat after me:
Past success in The Show does not guarantee future performance, and lack of past success in The Show does not guarantee future failure.
The problem is that you’re too stupid to understand anything beyond your typical hindsight analysis. It’s the reason why you thought Blalock would be worth a 3/30 extension: you assumed that because Blalock was a good hitter in 2004 that he would continue to be a good hitter, even though there was no chance of that ever happening. Similarly, it’s why you ignore blue chip prospects like Smoak, even though Smoak would likely outperform a retread like Glaus in 2010.
Don’t bother replying. You’ll just embarrass yourself.
by cstorm15 on Jan 20, 2010 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
So
you believe Cobra Lewis is a prime example of a “market inefficiency” ?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Yes
No one can guarantee what level of success Lewis will have in 2010, but we do know that the Rangers have a stronger-than-average scouting presence in Asia and that the Rangers are more familiar than Lewis than any other MLB team. Thus, we should have an information advantage.
Some teams probably do not trust their Asia scouts and their internal evaluation of Japanese players. These teams will instead focus their search on low-end proven MLB starters like Garland and Davis. These teams will pay more money for these players that we paid for Lewis, but they will probably not receive more performance than what Lewis will provide.
I can’t recall whether you pretended to read Moneyball or not. If you have read it, you should at least have a very amateur understanding of market inefficiencies.
by cstorm15 on Jan 20, 2010 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
the insults
detract from an otherwise well written post. grow up man. its a message board.
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 20, 2010 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
You postulate from a position
Of zero knowledge, nb09.
Josie Wails insults everyone, usually with a religious, employment related, or intelligence slur.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Zero knowledge?
How do you know? I’ve read enough of these threads to know he insults people. That doesnt make it any more legitimate to insult him back. The Rec’d post made some great points that were downgraded in my mind due to the unnecessary comments about him. I’m not defending him, I’m just saying its not needed.
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 21, 2010 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with your point
but as Rodney says, there’s just too much history to ignore.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
"NPB as a higher-level minor-league than AAA"
I like that thought.
These projections are pretty optimistic. A rough average of ZIPS & CHONE project Cobra with a 4.21 ERA. That would be a super-win for Texas.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Hell, if he exceeds his ZiPS I'll buy a drink or two (for myself)
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Quickly, someone make that their signature.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
click on your profile and then click "edit profile"
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Jan 20, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think those Lewis projections seem too far off
After all, he walked around 1 per 9 in Japan. Even if he doubles that number, he will still post tremendous peripherala in all likelihood. He can allow a lot of hits and still maintain a strong FIP and WHIP so long as his control sticks around.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 20, 2010 2:40 PM CST via mobile reply actions
And I agree with Grant
I think McCarthy, not Holland is the odd man out. Holland has a higher ceiling and would give the rotation a lefty. McCarthy provides the same production as Moscoso, Harrison, or Nippert. Given his salary, it might make sense to just trade McCarthy.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 20, 2010 2:45 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Not to mention that BMac tends to develop a DL-inducing blister every other start.
I’d be happy with Holland in the SR over him.
Holland's service time shouldn't be ignored
"You'll meet them again on their long journey to the middle." -Lester Bangs
worse than what we have now?
in production from 2009 alone?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
For what it's worth
In the year before he went to Japan (2007), Lewis was terrible from end of May to around the ASB, but after he got a September callup, he went:
12 IP, 10 H, 4 R/ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Small sample size, but maybe he changed something while he was in the minors that second time in 2007.
Anyone care to dig up who the pitching coach was in the minors at the time?
I’m a bit too lazy but I’d like to know if there was someone that made him click.
where
is he buried?
Who gives a shit what Josey says.............................
by Lil' Jonny Donuts on Jan 20, 2010 5:07 PM CST up reply actions
Ricardo "Rick" Rodriguez was the pitching coach
Here’s some other press release information from the Sacramento River Cats, the A’s AAA affiliate from the 2007 season.
The July 22nd, July 27th, August 3rd, and August 8th stories have bits about Lewis. I especially like the bit about the game he pitched on 8/8/07
It was a good old fashion pitching duel Wednesday afternoon at Raley Field that saw Colby Lewis dominate once again, but the River Cats were only able to muster two hits and got shutout in their 2-0 loss in the series finale against Oklahoma. Starter Edinson Volquez shined for the RedHawks going seven innings and striking out nine while only allowing two hits. Lewis (7-2) was the tough luck loser for Sacramento after looking nearly un-hittable in the game’s early frames when he struck seven RedHawks in his first five innings and faced the minimum in his first six.
(Wife) "So what do you want to watch on the T.V.? UFC or porn?"
(Husband) "Hmm... well, porn, I guess."
Gimmie innings
Don’t care if his era is 4.5 or 3.5. Both are ok. Hopefully the guy can go 180 or more.
by Black Francis on Jan 20, 2010 2:44 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Chone projections; Zywica
Those are pretty encouraging. All of the rotation candidates project with ERAs below 5.00.
A couple of paragraphs in that Transaction Oracle sound almost word for word like Brett Perryman’s posts on Lewis here.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Zywica's origin
is it Polish for “viscous liquid of plant origin” or some other meaning?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
A 4.39 ERA 3 years ago would be good for 20 wins...
Greetings from the Humungus, the Ruler of the Wasteland, the Ayatollah of Rock and Roll-A. I laugh at your puny plans.
OT
After witnessing all the wild optimism regarding Cobra Lewis I decided to look at some of the wild, wacky LSB Community Projections from last year, specifically Brandon McCarthy.
I said before the 2009 season that Brandon McCarthy -
Would have 6 wins (he had 7 wins)
Would pitch 110 innings (he had 97.1 IPs)
Would strike-out 65 batters (he struck out 65 batters)
Would finish with a 4.69 ERA (finished with a 4.62 ERA)
http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/3/31/816601/community-projections-brandon
Missed on Tiny E last year but hit a HR with my McCarthy projection.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
"I said before the 2009 season that Brandon McCarthy"
You also said that Elvis was in over his head. Why do you insist on continuing to blow smoke up your own ass?
It's pretty amazing when you click in
To read Rangers’ baseball chat, ideas, questions, projections, and commentary … and run into posts “all about me”. When does it become obvious that what someone said or didn’t say x months or years ago is tired laundry? Got an interesting new season coming up, and I don’t know, it may be a lot of fun to follow. Who said what and when isn’t.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jan 20, 2010 5:49 PM CST up reply actions
Like I said,
that’s how he dazzles his own ass.
Josey maintaining that he is the perennial omnipotence on the Rangers failures and successes is pretty much par for the course on LSB at this point.
So yeah, I agree with you.
I took a lot of
justified shat about whiffing on both Tiny E and my Ranger win projection so I’m gonna blow smoke when I stumble upon something like the McCarthy gem.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
What is your point?
That, because you were close on your predictions for one player last year, you’re probably right about Colby Lewis? Seriously? Blind squirrel with nut and sunshine on a dog’s ass.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
offseason projections are blind squirrel finds a nut
nobody seems to be good at them at all. doesnt mean anyone fails if they miss a projection
by nathanbaum09 on Jan 20, 2010 11:08 PM CST up reply actions
It's actually backwards
no one gets their wrong projections pointed out unless they desperately try to convince everyone that they have superior projection abilities (like yours truly)
How do you not break your neck sucking your own d**k?
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
by WyoRanger on Jan 20, 2010 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Congrats on your HR
To bad you hit into a game ending triple play with your win prediction.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
OT - Sale of club
Galloway just said the team sale looked completely off the rails one week ago but he held back from talking or writing about it until everything played out.
Selig jumped in with both feet and had a come to jeezus meeting with Hicks (who was doing everything he could to retain control) to make this happen.
Thinks sale is finalized tomorrow or Friday.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Isn't this just an invitation to scorn?
Galloway just said the team sale looked completely off the rails one week ago but he held back from talking or writing about it until everything played out.
So, when others were reporting there was trouble with the sale, he decided not to report on there being trouble with the sale, but he was right about there being trouble with the sale, but now there’s less trouble with the sale, when everyone and their mother is now reporting there’s less trouble with the sale, he’s going to report there’s less trouble with the sale?
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
Who knows? Just passing on what I heard for those who don't listen to his show.
RG has been fairly plugged into the Ranger scene and it appears that he is the journalist of choice for Nolan.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Thanks for the info
I agree with your last point 100%. With all the news Galloway’s broken over the last year or so, he’s become the go-to source.
Wish he would have actually reported it last week.
Josey
I’ll bet you a good bottle of wine that Colby Lewis outperforms Joel Piniero. I know that’s not much, since I expect Piniero to revert to replacement level, but he will make 6 Mil more than Lewis. Would you rather have signed Piniero, since he has the “Major League Track Record”??
In vino, veritas
x
@jperrotto RT @AdamMcCalvy: Hearing that #Brewers agreed with LHP Doug Davis on a 1-year deal with a mutual option for ’11. $5.25 million guaranteed.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
CHONE thinks
pretty highly of Moscoso.
by Randy Richardson on Jan 20, 2010 3:39 PM CST reply actions
I might have ot change my signature
because general commenting on Facebook about the Rangers is even worse than than the DMN blogs commenters.
I mean, on Facebook you have a direct link to the ‘When we gon’ git sum peechin’?’ crowd. On DMN at least they have handles.
(And of course I’m referring to the KLaw line, not the super-classy Hoban Washburne line)
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
Big Damn Heroes, Sir
Only the opposite
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
I think my first leap into commenting was trying to argue with Habib over at the DMN.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
yep
If you look at the date I joined, it’s the day after CJ blew that save with all of the grounders and the triple that Nelson Cruz got hurt on. I was a casual reader here before that, but after reading the inane comments on the DMN board, I swore off it cold turkey.
meta-signature
I'd be happy with the first projection.
I’d be ecstatic with the second.
So who has more threads created for them in the past few weeks?
Colby Lewis vs. Darren Oliver
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Well
Theres 4 dedicated frontpage Colby posts in 2010 (not counting AM thread mentions) 1 fanpost and three fanshots.
Oliver has 5 dedicated frontpage posts, but zero dedicated fanposts or fanshots.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
It Looks Like Adam's Right
Adam,
It looks like you’re right re/ McCarthy. He has burned 3 options, but his service time on 25 man roster would seem to indicate he can’t be optioned. From Keith Law, 3 years ago.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/08/death_taxes_and_1.php
I still think (if he can mentally get pas it) he profiles as a 6th inning arm out of pen. However, given his penchant for routine, I don’t think he DOES mentally get past it.
I keep coming back to the thought that the competition for the last 2 spots in the rotation is going to be delicious.
Jack Daddy
Awesome
Thanks. This is going on the front page.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 20, 2010 5:46 PM CST up reply actions
don't take this as a dump on lewis,
but would anybody else rather roll with harden, feldman, hunter, mccarthy, holland/feliz with lewis being the long man/first substitute? My question ignores the fact that he probably wouldn’t have come here under that scenario, but assuming he would…?
The only issue I'd take with that
is that Holland/Feliz, and particularly Feliz, can be best served by easing into the season. But aside from that, I think it just depends on who the best five are. Having the ability to option Lewis out if he doesn’t happen to be one of the five best would certainly be a nice luxury, but that just wasn’t a possibility due to the interest in him from other clubs.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 20, 2010 6:27 PM CST up reply actions
I like the idea of Lewis starting in the Roto
Hopefully we can find out if he has got it or not early on. Holland in AAA isn’t a bad thing and I would rather see Feliz in AAA roto than big league pen.
I moved last May and thus didn’t really get to see many of Hunter’s starts….is he for real?
by groundingout on Jan 20, 2010 7:00 PM CST up reply actions
adding to Hunter....
I don’t like his chances of doing well in 10.
by groundingout on Jan 20, 2010 7:00 PM CST up reply actions
I saw him in person twice
I’m no scout, but I’ll say this: it’s hard to get solid contact on him. Or at least it was for those teams on those particular days.
I do understand your skepticism, though. Lewin loves to talk about how Hunter gets his success from the way he mixes his pitches, which I always thought was a nice way to say that his stuff isn’t great. Maybe someone with a scout’s eye can enlighten us.
meta-signature
Not me
I think Holland should be AAA for a bit. Feliz is just so darn young I rather he be in either the bullpen or perhaps AAA. I like the idea of Feliz being in the bullpen for a while longer then sent to AAA to stretch out. Lewis has handled full season workloads in Japan and being 30 he should have the makeup to be able to adjust. And given Lewis’s japanese numbers, I’d like to have 170 innings out of him instead of 70.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
I know I sound like a broken record...
…but…..
If we’re trying to win the West, Feliz has to be in the pen in Arlington rather than trying to limit his innings as a starter in AAA. You or I may not like it, but I think that’s the reality of the situation.
Also, I have this itch in the back of my throat that tells me, despite what JD says, he’ll be in the pen for his career.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
I don't understand why...
…there are so many people convinced that Feliz will never get a chance to start in the majors.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 20, 2010 7:34 PM CST up reply actions
I just have a hankerin'....
…not that I agree with it.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
Even though they've said otherwise?
And logic dictates that he’s more valuable as a starter? And they’re even giving Wilson a chance at starting, even though he is a key reliever, is not that far from being a FA, and doesn’t have the sort of potential as a starter that Feliz does?
by Brett Perryman on Jan 20, 2010 7:55 PM CST up reply actions
Yup, can't really explain why Z.
When I say “itch in the back in my throat” I meant that it was something that defied logic.
I’m sure I’m wrong and I sure as hell hope I am.
Makes as much sense as a Masturbating Bear doesn’t it?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
noone cares.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
you on the road right now?
I saw one of yall’s trailers around the corner from my house while jogging, someone live over by Woodrow?
Stick it.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
Nope
Ignoring my wife and kid, dazing at the laptop. My sister was staying at a house over there and was using it to move out. What the hell are you jogging for? Don’t you know that shit gets rid of your gut.
okay, I was walking.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
I see Ryin's point though for the foreseeable future
if good team health is in the cards. here’s the logic: we just acquired Harden; add him to Feldman and Lewis, and those 3 aren’t going out of the rotation unless they get hurt. There are 2 more spots for Hunter, Harrison, Holland, McCarthy who have all started MLB games and have shown that they can handle it (at least for a good run). They will get all the chances in the world to succeed. So if 2 of those 4 plus the other 3 in the rotation stay healthy and succeed, and Feliz is in the pen mowing hitters down, I think we’re going to be pretty damn successful. And if we are having that high level of success, blowing by the AL West competition, I don’t think they’ll make any changes until Harden or Lewis are gone 2 years from now.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jan 21, 2010 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
I put Lewis in as the #3 or #4 starter
I trade BMac for a lower level guy or two that don’t need to be on the 40 man. There has to be a team that would take a chance on him if the price is right.
I put Feliz as the closer with Oliver and Francisco as setup men
CHONE
So CHONE projects Lewis to post 1.98 BB/9, 8.14 K/9, and a 1.19 WHIP. Those are unbelievable (borderline Cy Young caliber) peripherals. I’d think that those peripherals would result in an ERA lower than 3.86, especially with this team’s defense. He doesn’t seem like the kind of pitcher who would be susceptible to the home run, given his use of the sinker/cutter and his ground ball tendencies in Japan.
Either way, if Lewis is posting those kind of peripherals, he will be one of the best pitchers in the league. That is a stunningly optimistic projection.
lol
clearly flawed projection system.
I would most definitely expect a sub-3 era with those numbers.
By comparison
Here are some career numbers for some other top pitchers:
Jake Peavy (9.02 K/9, 2.91 BB9, 3.10 K/BB, 1.18 WHIP, 3.46 FIP)
Johan Santana (9.12 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 3.66 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP, 3.38 FIP)
Roy Halladay (6.57 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 3.29 K/BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.47 FIP)
Roy Oswalt (7.35 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 3.58 K/BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.35 FIP)
Colby Lewis’s projection looks remarkably close to these pitchers:
8.14 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 4.11 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP
Unless CHONE is projecting he will post a very high HR rate, then it seems that he should have an FIP somewhere around 3.30-3.60. I think that would put his ERA, given our strong infield defense and his ground ball tendency, at 3.00-3.60 or so. So, yeah, I cannot believe how bullish CHONE is on Lewis. If there is a somewhat decent chance he could post these kind of numbers, then the Rangers made an absolutely terrific deal. Here is to hoping that there is something to this projection.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 20, 2010 9:33 PM CST up reply actions
Uh, Hey Steve!
It’s like 19 HR in 168 IP. I don’t know how much you love your Mommy with that mouth, but that’s like kinda high.
/Roger
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
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