Christina Kahrl-PECOTA for Colby Lewis
"The other interesting player who we already know isn’t in this year’s book is Colby Lewis, who as I noted last week has came over to the Rangers from Japan after two good seasons there. As Clay notes, his translation models "love what he did in Japan,[but] they love’d what he did in Sacramento in 2007. Forecasting a roughly 4.00 ERA, with his upsides (6 % breakout/40 % improve) substantially larger than his downside figures (12 % collapse/8 % attrition), plus a solid comp list." The comp list starts with Jon Lieber, followed by John Smoltz, Javier Vazquez, and A.J. Burnett. Working from that PECOTA spits out 169 1/3 IP, 165 hits, 141 Ks, 48 walks, a 1.26 WHIP and a 4.16 ERA (4.05 DERA), or 8.6 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 7.1 K/9. That’s projected for Texas, mind you, so it’s impressive. Or, to be blunt, he’s someone you’ll want to keep in mind, whether for your own league or for the Rangers’ rotation picture."
Very nice indeed.
over 2 years ago
Rodney
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colby lewis with another projection...
…and I jizzed in my pants!
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Meh
Jizzed in my pants, jizzed in my pants, lookin like a perv when I jizzed in my pants.
"I think that Rangers is good team."-DemianBlue
by Pocket Ninja on Jan 26, 2010 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
That would be excellent indeed.
The risk analysis pegs this as a low-risk, high-reward type of move. I’m wondering if this was generally the mood around baseball. It seems he would get a better contract if the risk of collapsing were believed to be this small.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
I wonder
if Lewis signing here was a combo of him being comfortable here from his previous stint, and the fact that they had been following him during his two-year stint in Japan and were probably the first club to talk to him. Or maybe they were the only club willing to offer two years plus an option. And some clubs are probably less inclined to take the Japanese stats as that encouraging over his previous MLB time.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
All of the above is my vote
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Agree, Rodney
I think all those factors played into it, especially with the Rangers’ advanced Japanese scouting.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Internet greatness http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/11/10/1125340/will-carroll-calls-out-josey-wales
I can not wait for ST to begin
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
by boomer1 on Jan 26, 2010 3:31 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
i feel like colby lewis is going to break some of these projections
i expect good things but my expectations are pretty far from the projections
So, you think he will do better?
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Gotcha
I think I would be fine with that too.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Also
why is his DERA better than ERA. Does that suggest that the Rangers have a below average defense?
x
DERA is intended to be a defense-independent version of the NRA. As with that statistic, 4.50 is average. Note that if DERA is higher than NRA, you can safely assume he pitched in front of an above-average defense.
Normalized Runs Allowed. “Normalized runs” have the same win value, against a league average of 4.5 and a pythagorean exponent of 2, as the player’s actual runs allowed did when measured against his league average.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
I think it means above average defense
You have to infer a bit from the above definitions…maybe someone with a subscription can ask that question for us.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Meh
I like FanGraphs more. tRA and FIP.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Jan 26, 2010 3:50 PM CST up reply actions
Who cares about ERA, DERA, tRA, FIP
you should measure a good pitching in wins and wins only.
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on Jan 26, 2010 4:04 PM CST up reply actions
Give this man a big warm cup of
Grandpa Urine!
lol
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Haha
obviously sarcasm
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on Jan 27, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
Holy Cow
any projection on a Mr. Sheets?
(Wife) "So what do you want to watch on the T.V.? UFC or porn?"
(Husband) "Hmm... well, porn, I guess."
100 days on the DL
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Jan 26, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
So, we've seen 3 projections on him
and even the worst of them would be a very, very good value for the contract.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Excellent Smithers...
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Jan Smithers, I hope.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I like that
signing more and more every day.
"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence." -- Vince Lombardi
Crazy Optimistic
Count me as skeptical
I think the NL-style Japanese league, and the increase strike outs that come from that area, are throwing these projections off. Don’t get me wrong – I’ll be more happy than I can describe w/o graphic elements if he in fact hits these projections. Doesn’t it just seems too good to be true? For just a couple million bucks?
If it’s the cutter, that makes some sense. And if our increased scouting in the Far East allowed us to determine that while other teams did not, that’s great.
My gut says that this projection will look way off in Aug/Sept … again, hope I’m wrong, but
I am cautiously optimistic
But he does look like on of the five best options on the roster now.
That's why they call them business sox
Heh
nerd.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I'm sorry. Let me try again.
Javier Vazquez? A big game choke artist who a bunch of basement freaks will overrate because they don’t actually watch games?
Spacist
Yeah. They exist.
Gracchus (about Obama): I think he knows what America is. America is the mob. Conjure money for them and they'll be distracted. Take away their freedom and still they'll roar. The beating heart of America is not the paper of the Constitution, it's the power of the media. He'll bring them debt - and they will love him for it.
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