"The other interesting player who we already know isn’t in this year’s book is Colby Lewis, who as I noted last week has came over to the Rangers from Japan after two good seasons there. As Clay notes, his translation models "love what he did in Japan,[but] they love’d what he did in Sacramento in 2007. Forecasting a roughly 4.00 ERA, with his upsides (6 % breakout/40 % improve) substantially larger than his downside figures (12 % collapse/8 % attrition), plus a solid comp list." The comp list starts with Jon Lieber, followed by John Smoltz, Javier Vazquez, and A.J. Burnett. Working from that PECOTA spits out 169 1/3 IP, 165 hits, 141 Ks, 48 walks, a 1.26 WHIP and a 4.16 ERA (4.05 DERA), or 8.6 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 7.1 K/9. That’s projected for Texas, mind you, so it’s impressive. Or, to be blunt, he’s someone you’ll want to keep in mind, whether for your own league or for the Rangers’ rotation picture."
Very nice indeed.