New T.R. Sullivan mailbag up
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2010 2:03 PM CST
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T.R. Sullivan has a new mailbag up, and it includes a question about whether "Neftali Perez" will be traded, which amused me.
There's also some talk about Nelson Cruz, with Sullivan saying that his OPS and defense per the advanced defensive stats were good, but that "the Rangers still need more than 76 RBIs out of him."
Of course, when you only have 133 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, because you are hitting 5th or 6th or 7th behind guys that hit for power and don't get on base, and you get benched for random stretches because David Murphy and Marlon Byrd are too valuable to take out of the lineup, you aren't going to rack up a ton of RBIs.
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cheerleaders start chanting: "Hit him again! Hit him again! Harder! Harder!"
that’s hot
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
Dykstra has all the money!
ElectricOkra.com
by WhipSmart on Jan 4, 2010 2:53 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You broke the camel's back there
I just had to read the column after that…and now I owe you a punch.
:)
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
my work here is done
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
Dykstra has all the money!
ElectricOkra.com
i see what you did there
"Every Indian feels that where the ball is, there he should be, and though they do not altogether abandon an instinctive disposition, the glory of Lacrosse to them is in the exciting chases after the ball. The Indian village game was not intellectual enough for the whites, and needed systematizing; but never let this improvement be carried to such extreme as to spoil its extemporaneous peculiarities of fielding, and the general free character, which distinguishes it above all other field games."
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Jan 4, 2010 3:31 PM CST up reply actions
he doesn't
Those who have come up with complicated defensive measurements have him ranked quite high among outfielders in 2009.
he says this, then proceeds to make the RBI comment.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
He partially redeems himself right after that
But the point is that an outfielder with Cruz’s talent and production is becoming a premium around baseball and should not be taken lightly.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I don't find +/- complicated at all.
You can’t do it at home because you don’t have BIP data charted, but that’s not complicted; just labor intensive.
FIP being similar. . .
yeah
i have no idea why people think fielding stats like those are complicated at all. It’s the most intuitive way of calculating fielding – have a standard for which balls a player should get to and see if player meets that standard.
i could see complicated variations on +/-, such as trying to weight certain balls a player gets to higher, but nobody has done that.
I think TR's use of the word "complicated" was simply to illustrate that the stat was more complicated
than dividing fielding chances by errors and coming up with a fielding percentage. But what the hell, any explanation that simple would deprive all of us intellectual posters of feeling like we possess a superior knowledge that only those that live on internet forums could ever begin to comprehend.
my comment had more to do with why people wouldn't embrace +/- more in the first place
it’s not like WAR where you have a complicated formula based on subjectively weighting certain outcomes more than others.
Cruz had an .856 OPS, not .832
I’m not sure where Sullivan came up with that .832 number. And his argument about Cruz’s RBI total it dumb. Not only did he bat low in the order behind mediocre players, he also only got only 462 AB.
then get him a MasterCard
thankyouverymuch
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
Dykstra has all the money!
ElectricOkra.com
by WhipSmart on Jan 4, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
ZING!
Scott Feldman – "The greatest Hawaiian-born Jewish baseball player to ever set foot on the mound."
platoon DH
If we signed Garko and put him and Murphy in a DH platoon, what would be wrong with that?
Murphy career vs RH 284 / 349 / 491
Garko career vs LH 313 / 392 / 495
If we added Garko (platoon DH/contingency plan at 1b), Reed Johnson (as a contingency CF), and Khalil Greeene (to backup SS, 3b, 2b), wouldn’t we we really be in pretty good shape? I’m guessing that all l3 of those guys could be signed for less than the $7M we supposedly have in the budget – and I think that would give us a pretty nice roster.
What a drag it is being broke.
I've been all over Garko for a while now
I fail to see how he isn’t a top option for a DH candidate.
I’d be fine with Greene too - but I think Johnson might be unnecessary given all the fringy OFers in the minors (like Gentry/Golson). I guess if you really could get all three for $5$7M I’d be OK with it.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
Double space after your dashes in the future
That’ll fix it.
dash
- dash -
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
the thing about Reed Johnson
We really don’t know how Borbon is going to fare as a full time ML CF. If he comes out and is horrible, or is horrible against LHP, I think it would be prudent to have another CF on the roster that at least gives you a chance.
If Borbon tanks, I think there needs to be a safer fall back option than Boggs/Gentry/Golson if the team is trying to win a pennant, those guys probably aren’t reasonable starting CFs.
What a drag it is being broke.
I think Hamiltoe
is the backup CFer already on the roster. I don’t see OF depth as being an issue really.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
If all it costs is a couple million
I think it would be worth it to keep Hamiltoe out of CF.
What a drag it is being broke.
Hamiltoe
Tell me I’m not late to the party on this
by oc on Jan 4, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions
two things, no three
If the Rangers win the division next year I will bet that Hamilton is having an MVP caliber season and Elvis has stayed healthy. I can’t see playoffs without those two things being in place.
Also I think Hamiltoe just showed up and you were here to witness.
What a drag it is being broke.
Yep
I think that’s either brilliant or a very fortuitous typo.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Well, you decide
http://www.lonestarball.com/search?btn=Go&order=date&q=hamiltoe&type=Comment
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
It would be a mistake to rely on Hamilton to be the backup CF
1. Borbon isn’t playing 162 games, so Hamilton would get substantial work in CF.
2. Borbon did not hit lefties well last year, and although he may improve, it makes sense to have a backup CF who can hit lefties (which rules out an inhouse candidate like Gohlson). And since this backup CF is going to get some substantial playing time in CF (I’m guessing around 30 games), it’d be nice if the player could hit more than Gentry and was more reliable than Boggs.
3. This team has three hitters who struggle against LHP: Murphy, Davis, and Boggs. You won’t be able to find RH platoons for all three players, but adding a RH CF and a RH 1b/DH covers two positions. If Borbon hits well, then Reed Johnson could shift to DH versus LHP and Garko could shift to 1b.
Basically, adding a CF like Reed Johnson and a righty 1b/DH type makes the current roster work really well. I believe this would be a better use of money than spending on an everyday DH type like Delgado or Thome.
It may be a mistake
But, I believe that is what will happen.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
This team has three hitters who struggle against LHP: Murphy, Davis, and Borbon
I agree with you that the roster with Johnson and Garko added to it would seem to work really well. Gives reasonable contingencies for nearly every spot in the lineup.
What a drag it is being broke.
You caught my typo
I was thinking about the DH situation. If we signed a Delgado or Thome, then Murphy is a complete waste of a roster spot. He’ll basically only play if something goes horribly wrong.
I'm a big proponent of that idea
The problem is that the team also wants to add a catcher and maybe a SP, and you won’t get all five for $7M.
I was worried when you posted a link
I’m ok with these off the field issues.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Him and Holland should get along great...
Derek Holland: Well this is a rap here in good old Japan ive left my stinky farts for the room lady, met lots of japanese and they took my pictures, road the fast ass train and i mean fast, ate a lot of crazy food and , and experienced the night life of a japanese person …had a great time but get me back to my sweet ass country whe…re people dont run away from farts hahaha coming home now see ya soon
Derek Holland: I have offically left my mark in Tokyo….Japanese lady come to my room to do my bed and stuff but i chose to stay in the room playing xbox and all of a sudden i couldnt hold back so i farted…she got a good laugh and so did i but then all of a sudden she started talking in japanese and smelt this horrible horrible sm…ell and walked out hahahahaha i made a japanese lady laugh then get pissed ha ha sorry
"Support the Dutch Oven"
Yeah, but ...
did the fart have late movement?
Apoplectic in the face of luminous prose.
by shroomer on Jan 4, 2010 3:56 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Difference between command and control
And hitting your spots.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Jan 4, 2010 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Or, the Bull Durham take
“I said breathe through your eyelids, your EYELIDS!”
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Ugh can we stop with the "benched for random stretches" bullshit with Cruz
Lets look at Cruz’s days off:
May 15th: First game off after playing in 34 straight starting 32 of those
June 24th: Started 33 straight games in between days off. Previous 3 games 0-13
June 27-28: Here wash was probably trying too hard to make up for not resting him more earlier in the season but he was only 1-11 in the two games after his 2nd day off of the year.
July 7-9: After the two days off Cruz came back strong hitting in 5 straight games but then went 0-8 with 4 Ks in the 2 games leading up to this time off. Plus with the ASB coming up which Cruz would be participating in he could have used a little time off. Maybe not 3 straight days but a day or two would have been ok IMO
July 19-21:really the only one you can scratch your head at. Coming off a 3 hit game against Boston. The Rangers were about to start a grueling stretch without any days off for awhile but I don’t see the need for more than a day off here.
Aug 29: Struggled a little coming back from his DL stint just a regular day off IMO
Then he had 3 days off in September but that was the last week of the season and we were already eliminated. The only criticism i can really see is that Wash didn’t space out his days off early. Maybe that had to do alot with hamilton being hurt but other than that I don’t disagree much with how much playing time Cruz got last year. Without the injury he was on pace to play ~140 games which given his year round playing in winter ball for several years is about what you would expect.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
hmmm
May 15th: First game off after playing in 34 straight starting 32 of those
You should consider any game not started by Cruz as an off day. So he didn’t start in 3 of the first 35 games. That would put him on pace to play 148 games.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Jan 4, 2010 3:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It's okay...
Large Steven hates Nellie.
And freedom.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Cruz wasn't named to the All Star team...
…until after that stretch where he was benched by Washington, so the idea that he was resting him for the ASG is just wrong.
And also, he was supposed to sit on July 10, but ended up being put in the lineup because of an injury to, I think, Hamilton.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
Not resting them for the ASG necessarily
But if they knew he would play in the ASG and thus not have 3 or 4 days off when everyone else did they may try and get him a day or two off right before especially if he was struggling. This obviously wasn’t the case since Cruz hadn’t yet been named which I didn’t know although i think it still could have been something they considered. I don’t remember who he replaced and how obvious it was so maybe they did know he would get named eventually.
Point is Cruz played damn near everyday the first half of the season only getting a real rest when he was struggling which seemed to help. In the second half he got an unusual 3 day rest early in the 2nd half but other than that had it not been for the injury he would have played probably more than he should have.
Since he has played winter ball again this winter I wouldn’t expect him to play more than 145 games again next year. Hopefully Washington spaces his days off a bit more and so the extended days off don’t occur but I don’t think he is a 155+ game player given his age and how much hes played over the last few years
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
This was my favorite part of this story
that I heard the entire bit about Nelly in Adam’s voice.
When are we getting a new podcast??
"I think I'm going to name my new car Scooter, because it dominates on the road." - mikeyoungfuturehof, 9.10.09
"I’ve been a Rangers fan all my life and I can tell you there’s been plenty of fucking crying in baseball…" - WhipSmart, 6.3.08
regarding our DH
I don’t think Delgado would be a bad option.
He played in a puerto rico winter league game last night and went 1-4. The fact that he is playing is nice to see.
I, personally, don’t want Murphy getting ABs from the DH spot, he is a 4th OFer, and will get plenty of playing time with the inevitable Hamilton injury and Wash lovefests
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
The only problem is I bet he is either boom or bust.
I just don’t see an average year from him. He’s likely either healthy and hitting or injured for most of it.
I’m really getting to like the idea of Garko or someone of his like more and more. Use our DH slot for more around the 6-7 hole and platoon Murphy/Garko in there and use Nellie up in the 4 or 5 hole. I just don’t like any of the more expensive or big name DH options enough to want to spend resources on them right now.
What do voluntary mean?
I don't think the demand for Delgado will be enough
for him to demand a lucrative deal. Basically, he is behind other players only suited for the DH position, and it will be interesting to see where these players fall. There are still a ton of FAs out there. I thinik he is more of a “presence” in the lineup than say a Garko or Murphy.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Yeah but he's also a lot more likely to be a presence on the DL
What do voluntary mean?
heh, this may be true
people were willing to bring in MB, but outside of last year Delgado has had less than 500 ABs only once since 1996. Say what you want, he’d be a better bet than Bradley.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
"the Rangers still need more than 76 RBIs out of him"
Couldn’t you just say “the Rangers need better OBP and for Cruz to play more” and sound infinitely more intelligent?
No
If you want to learn how to sound more intelligent you have to read Newberg’s fanpost.
by Black Francis on Jan 4, 2010 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
x
6:28pm: And here comes Peter Gammons down the stretch with terms, tweeting: “Beltre 1 yr. Deal for $9m with player option for $5m. Physical coming.”
A month ago
there is no way in hell I would have thought he’d sign for that little. Strike that, 5 minutes ago there’s no way I thought that.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
player option for 5 mil?
So I guess if he completely bombs is the only way he would ever consider exercising that?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
"Of course, when you only have 133 plate appearances with runners in scoring position"
Not to get in the way of a good rant, but Byrd managed 25 more RBI’s in just 28 more PA’s with RISP.
That's true...
Byrd was very clutch with RISP last year. (.912 OPS)
Cruz also had 25 of his home runs with no one on base. That seems like a fairly high percentage of home runs with no one on compared to his total (76%). I would guess that generally a higher portions of home runs are hit without anyone on, but 76%? I would imagine hitting him 4th would lead to more 2 run, 3 run homers and thus more RBIs.
Pitchers tend to get a little more careless with no runners on base
which could go along way to explaining why Cruz didn’t hit a lot of HR’s with men on base.
If nothing else, I'm encouraged to hear the Rangers realize Arias and Tatis suck.
If the Rangers were in the playoffs... the soundtrack could be one long continuous fart, and I would love it. - cmkelly
Yes he does.
2008 was the only time he didn’t, and he had a .345 BABIP that year (second highest in his career). Plus, his career OPS against lefties is .808 and the past two years it’s been .822 and .809. Pretty unspectacular for a RH platoon bat.
I can’t understand why you have a fetish for him.
If the Rangers were in the playoffs... the soundtrack could be one long continuous fart, and I would love it. - cmkelly
by LSJ on Jan 4, 2010 8:01 PM CST up reply actions
It's just something about a guy hitting two grand slams in an inning
that makes AJM go crazy.
Give me team chemistry and emotion over stats any day. Do you think 34,000 Ranger fans were screaming their asses off over Pudge and his .275 OBP?
How so?
"Every Indian feels that where the ball is, there he should be, and though they do not altogether abandon an instinctive disposition, the glory of Lacrosse to them is in the exciting chases after the ball. The Indian village game was not intellectual enough for the whites, and needed systematizing; but never let this improvement be carried to such extreme as to spoil its extemporaneous peculiarities of fielding, and the general free character, which distinguishes it above all other field games."
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Jan 4, 2010 10:23 PM CST up reply actions
There is
But it doesn’t make Fernando Tatis any better.
If the Rangers were in the playoffs... the soundtrack could be one long continuous fart, and I would love it. - cmkelly
You'll have to explain.
"Every Indian feels that where the ball is, there he should be, and though they do not altogether abandon an instinctive disposition, the glory of Lacrosse to them is in the exciting chases after the ball. The Indian village game was not intellectual enough for the whites, and needed systematizing; but never let this improvement be carried to such extreme as to spoil its extemporaneous peculiarities of fielding, and the general free character, which distinguishes it above all other field games."
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Jan 4, 2010 11:52 PM CST up reply actions
Since you are the wOBA/WAR guy
He had a wOBA of .372 in 2008, and .338 in 2009, with WARs of 1.6 and 1.5 in part-time play each of the past two years.
Using BP’s stats, he was 2 runs above average for his position offensively last year, 13.6 above replacement.
Is he someone you’d want to have start 150 games for you? No.
But he’s a quality bench player, and he doesn’t “suck.”
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 5, 2010 9:35 AM CST up reply actions
Quality bench player
Big wazoo. He doesn’t do either of the things we need in a quality bench player, which is play shortstop and/or mash lefties.
When it comes to offensive acquisitions this offseason, “quality bench players” who don’t fill any of our needs are the new suck.
If the Rangers were in the playoffs... the soundtrack could be one long continuous fart, and I would love it. - cmkelly
by LSJ on Jan 5, 2010 8:10 PM CST up reply actions
Really?
He doesn’t hit lefties?
He has better than an 800 OPS against LHPs each of the past two years, while playing in a serious pitcher’s park.
And I must have missed the part where we picked up a quality RH DH who can fill in at 1B and 3B, which Tatis can do. The idea that he doesn’t fit a need, or that we have no use for anyone who can’t play SS, is simply bizarre.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 5, 2010 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
As I said above, he has 822 (in his fluke year) and 809 OPS's against lefties the last two years.
His career mark is 808. That’s okay, but if we’re gonna pick up a bench bat who is weak vs. RHP’s to mash lefties, I’d like him to actually be capable of mashing lefties, ya know?
Tatis is an okay bench player in a vacuum, fine. The positional versatility is nice, but what we really need in a RH bench bat is a strong platoon partner for Murphy. Tatis just doesn’t hit lefties well enough to fill that role IMO, especially if you think his 2008 was a fluke, which I do. Therefore, he doesn’t fit the mold of what we’re really looking for.
If the Rangers were in the playoffs... the soundtrack could be one long continuous fart, and I would love it. - cmkelly
by LSJ on Jan 5, 2010 9:14 PM CST up reply actions
Ryan Garko vs LHP .313 .392 .495 .887
I’d prefer his bat over Tatis ability to play third.
What a drag it is being broke.
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