## Rangers vs Rays, Game #5 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rangers and the Rays using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 10:30 PM PST)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob TEX TB C.Lee vs D.Price TB 52.72% 49.45% 46%

Notes:  Vegas is drinking the David Price kook-aid in the fifth and deciding game.  Still a close game but the simulator has this as a coin flip while UnAccuScore actually has the Rangers as a favorite to win.  Hard to bet against Cliff Lee, but this is likely to be a classic game.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Lee total batters faced: 29.5
3. C.Lee total strikeouts: 8.5
4. D.Price total strikeouts: 7.5
5. Rangers total bases: 8.5

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 TB 2-1 51 TEX 8-3 101 TEX 9-8 2 TB 3-2 52 TEX 8-2 102 TB 10-0 3 TB 4-3 53 TB 7-4 103 TEX 11-0 4 TEX 3-2 54 TB 7-1 104 TB 9-6 5 TEX 2-1 55 TB 7-3 105 TEX 10-6 6 TB 1-0 56 TEX 7-0 106 TB 9-7 7 TB 3-1 57 TEX 8-4 107 TB 11-1 8 TEX 4-3 58 TEX 7-6 108 TEX 11-4 9 TEX 3-1 59 TB 7-5 109 TB 10-5 10 TEX 4-2 60 TEX 8-0 110 TB 11-3 11 TB 5-4 61 TB 7-0 111 TEX 12-2 12 TB 4-2 62 TEX 9-2 112 TEX 12-1 13 TEX 1-0 63 TEX 8-5 113 TEX 10-7 14 TB 2-0 64 TB 8-1 114 TB 11-2 15 TEX 4-1 65 TB 8-2 115 TEX 12-3 16 TEX 2-0 66 TEX 9-3 116 TEX 11-5 17 TEX 5-2 67 TEX 9-1 117 TB 11-4 18 TB 4-1 68 TB 8-7 118 TB 12-1 19 TEX 5-3 69 TB 8-3 119 TB 12-3 20 TB 3-0 70 TB 8-4 120 TEX 12-4 21 TEX 5-4 71 TEX 9-4 121 TB 11-0 22 TEX 3-0 72 TEX 8-6 122 TB 12-2 23 TEX 5-1 73 TB 9-2 123 TB 11-5 24 TB 5-2 74 TB 8-0 124 TB 10-6 25 TB 5-3 75 TB 8-5 125 TEX 11-6 26 TEX 4-0 76 TEX 9-5 126 TB 10-9 27 TB 6-5 77 TEX 9-0 127 TEX 12-0 28 TEX 6-3 78 TEX 10-3 128 TEX 12-5 29 TEX 6-2 79 TEX 10-2 129 TEX 10-8 30 TB 4-0 80 TB 8-6 130 TEX 13-2 31 TB 5-1 81 TEX 10-1 131 TEX 12-6 32 TEX 6-1 82 TEX 8-7 132 TEX 10-9 33 TEX 5-0 83 TEX 9-6 133 TB 10-7 34 TEX 6-4 84 TB 9-3 134 TB 10-8 35 TEX 6-5 85 TB 10-2 135 TEX 14-2 36 TB 6-3 86 TB 9-0 136 TB 12-4 37 TB 6-2 87 TB 9-1 137 TB 12-0 38 TB 5-0 88 TEX 10-4 138 TEX 13-3 39 TEX 7-2 89 TB 9-4 139 TB 11-6 40 TB 6-4 90 TEX 10-0 140 TB 13-3 41 TEX 7-3 91 TB 10-3 141 TB 13-2 42 TB 6-1 92 TEX 10-5 142 TB 13-0 43 TEX 7-1 93 TEX 9-7 143 TB 12-5 44 TEX 6-0 94 TB 10-1 144 TEX 13-0 45 TEX 7-4 95 TEX 11-2 145 TEX 13-1 46 TB 7-6 96 TB 9-5 146 TEX 14-1 47 TB 7-2 97 TEX 11-3 147 TEX 11-7 48 TB 6-0 98 TB 9-8 148 TB 13-4 49 TEX 7-5 99 TEX 11-1 149 TB 13-1 50 TEX 8-1 100 TB 10-4 150 TEX 12-8

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