FanPost

Rangers vs Yankees, ALCS Game #3

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rangers and the Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 4:15 PM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob
 TEX NYA C.Lee vs A.Pettitte TEX 51.46% 57.80% 61%

 

Notes:  The series moves to New York for three games, but the trend of the betting public making out with the Yankees continues, as we see another large gap between the Vegas and Simulator numbers.  AccuScore comes in as an outlier in the Rangers favor, giving the Rangers a 61% chance win probability.  I think the simulators numbers on this game are once again the most reasonable.  Andy Pettitte always seems to do well in big playoff games, let's hope the Yankees and their fans do not get a happy ending.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. C.Lee total strikeouts: 7.5
3. Rangers bullpen batters faced: 5.5
4. A.Pettitte earned runs allowed: 2.5
5. N.Feliz saves minus M.Rivera saves: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 NYA 3-2   51 TEX 8-5   101 TEX 10-0
2 NYA 4-3   52 NYA 7-5   102 TEX 12-4
3 NYA 5-4   53 TEX 9-2   103 TEX 10-7
4 TEX 3-2   54 NYA 8-7   104 TEX 12-5
5 TEX 4-3   55 TEX 9-3   105 NYA 9-7
6 NYA 2-1   56 NYA 7-3   106 TEX 11-6
7 TEX 4-2   57 TEX 7-0   107 NYA 10-2
8 TEX 2-1   58 NYA 4-0   108 NYA 9-1
9 TEX 5-4   59 TEX 8-6   109 NYA 10-4
10 TEX 5-3   60 NYA 7-2   110 TEX 11-0
11 TEX 3-1   61 NYA 6-1   111 NYA 10-3
12 NYA 6-5   62 TEX 9-4   112 TEX 13-3
13 NYA 4-2   63 TEX 9-1   113 TEX 13-2
14 TEX 5-2   64 TEX 10-3   114 TEX 13-1
15 NYA 3-1   65 TEX 10-2   115 NYA 8-0
16 TEX 4-1   66 TEX 9-5   116 NYA 10-5
17 TEX 6-3   67 TEX 8-0   117 NYA 10-9
18 NYA 5-3   68 TEX 8-7   118 TEX 13-4
19 TEX 6-4   69 NYA 8-5   119 TEX 12-0
20 TEX 6-2   70 TEX 10-1   120 TEX 10-8
21 NYA 5-2   71 NYA 8-3   121 TEX 12-6
22 TEX 5-1   72 NYA 7-1   122 TEX 11-7
23 TEX 6-5   73 TEX 10-4   123 NYA 10-6
24 NYA 4-1   74 NYA 8-6   124 TEX 14-3
25 NYA 7-6   75 NYA 5-0   125 NYA 10-1
26 TEX 6-1   76 TEX 9-6   126 TEX 13-5
27 NYA 1-0   77 NYA 8-4   127 NYA 10-7
28 TEX 3-0   78 TEX 11-3   128 NYA 11-4
29 NYA 6-3   79 TEX 11-2   129 NYA 10-8
30 TEX 7-3   80 NYA 8-2   130 NYA 11-3
31 NYA 6-4   81 TEX 9-0   131 NYA 9-0
32 TEX 7-4   82 NYA 9-8   132 TEX 10-9
33 TEX 7-2   83 NYA 6-0   133 NYA 11-2
34 TEX 2-0   84 TEX 11-4   134 TEX 11-8
35 TEX 4-0   85 TEX 10-5   135 TEX 14-2
36 TEX 7-5   86 TEX 9-7   136 TEX 12-7
37 TEX 1-0   87 TEX 11-1   137 NYA 11-5
38 TEX 7-1   88 TEX 10-6   138 TEX 13-6
39 TEX 5-0   89 NYA 9-3   139 TEX 14-1
40 NYA 2-0   90 NYA 9-4   140 TEX 14-4
41 TEX 8-2   91 TEX 12-2   141 TEX 13-0
42 NYA 5-1   92 NYA 8-1   142 NYA 11-6
43 TEX 8-3   93 NYA 9-2   143 TEX 15-2
44 NYA 3-0   94 TEX 12-3   144 TEX 14-5
45 TEX 7-6   95 TEX 12-1   145 NYA 11-1
46 TEX 8-4   96 TEX 11-5   146 TEX 15-3
47 NYA 6-2   97 NYA 7-0   147 NYA 12-3
48 TEX 8-1   98 TEX 9-8   148 NYA 12-2
49 TEX 6-0   99 NYA 9-5   149 TEX 11-9
50 NYA 7-4   100 NYA 9-6   150 TEX 14-6
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