FanPost

Yankees vs Rangers, ALCS Game #6 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and the Rangers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 11:00 PM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob
 NYA TEX P.Hughes vs C.Lewis NYA 51.46% 42.68% 42%

 

Notes:  A pitching rematch of Game #2 back on October 16th, a game in which the Rangers won.  Back on that day, Vegas had the Yankees as a 53.3% favorite and the simulator had the Yankees with a 45.7% chance of winning.  Which means Vegas has lopped off around 2% from the Yankees and my simulator has lopped off around 3% from the Yankees - Mark Teixeira.  The simulator and AccuScore are within one percent on their predictions, so the east coast betting bias is still alive and kicking.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. C.Lewis total strikeouts: 5.5
3. Rangers bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
4. P.Hughes walks plus hits allowed: 7.5
5. Rangers HRs hit plus N.Feliz saves: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 TEX 4-3   51 TEX 8-4   101 NYA 9-1
2 TEX 3-2   52 NYA 6-1   102 TEX 11-1
3 TEX 5-4   53 NYA 8-6   103 TEX 10-6
4 TEX 6-5   54 NYA 8-5   104 TEX 11-4
5 NYA 4-3   55 NYA 8-7   105 NYA 10-7
6 NYA 3-2   56 TEX 6-0   106 TEX 10-7
7 TEX 2-1   57 NYA 2-0   107 NYA 10-8
8 TEX 4-2   58 NYA 3-0   108 TEX 11-5
9 NYA 5-4   59 NYA 8-3   109 NYA 11-3
10 TEX 5-3   60 TEX 8-6   110 NYA 11-4
11 TEX 3-1   61 TEX 8-1   111 NYA 10-1
12 TEX 5-2   62 NYA 1-0   112 NYA 8-0
13 NYA 4-2   63 TEX 9-3   113 TEX 12-3
14 NYA 5-3   64 NYA 7-1   114 TEX 10-8
15 TEX 7-6   65 NYA 8-2   115 NYA 11-2
16 TEX 6-3   66 TEX 9-8   116 NYA 11-5
17 TEX 4-1   67 TEX 9-4   117 TEX 12-4
18 TEX 6-4   68 NYA 4-0   118 TEX 10-0
19 NYA 6-5   69 TEX 7-0   119 TEX 11-6
20 NYA 2-1   70 TEX 9-2   120 NYA 11-6
21 NYA 5-2   71 NYA 9-5   121 NYA 10-9
22 NYA 6-4   72 TEX 9-5   122 NYA 12-4
23 NYA 3-1   73 NYA 9-4   123 NYA 11-7
24 TEX 6-2   74 NYA 5-0   124 TEX 11-7
25 TEX 5-1   75 TEX 9-1   125 NYA 12-5
26 NYA 6-3   76 NYA 9-6   126 TEX 12-1
27 NYA 4-1   77 TEX 9-6   127 TEX 12-2
28 TEX 7-4   78 NYA 9-3   128 TEX 13-3
29 TEX 7-3   79 NYA 8-1   129 NYA 12-3
30 TEX 7-5   80 TEX 10-4   130 NYA 11-8
31 TEX 7-2   81 NYA 9-2   131 NYA 9-0
32 NYA 7-5   82 TEX 10-3   132 TEX 12-5
33 NYA 7-6   83 TEX 10-2   133 TEX 11-0
34 TEX 3-0   84 NYA 9-8   134 TEX 13-4
35 NYA 7-4   85 NYA 10-4   135 TEX 11-10
36 TEX 6-1   86 TEX 9-7   136 TEX 13-2
37 NYA 6-2   87 NYA 9-7   137 NYA 11-1
38 TEX 8-7   88 TEX 8-0   138 NYA 12-2
39 NYA 7-3   89 NYA 6-0   139 NYA 12-6
40 TEX 1-0   90 TEX 10-5   140 TEX 12-6
41 NYA 5-1   91 NYA 10-5   141 NYA 13-3
42 TEX 2-0   92 TEX 11-3   142 TEX 11-8
43 TEX 4-0   93 NYA 10-3   143 NYA 12-7
44 TEX 8-3   94 TEX 10-1   144 NYA 10-0
45 TEX 7-1   95 NYA 10-2   145 NYA 13-4
46 TEX 5-0   96 TEX 9-0   146 TEX 13-1
47 NYA 7-2   97 NYA 7-0   147 NYA 11-9
48 TEX 8-2   98 TEX 10-9   148 TEX 11-9
49 TEX 8-5   99 TEX 11-2   149 NYA 13-2
50 NYA 8-4   100 NYA 10-6   150 TEX 13-5
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