Giants vs Rangers, Game #5 World Series - Simulation

by Xeifrank on Nov 1, 2010 1:58 AM CDT

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Rangers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 11:30 PM PST)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
SF	TEX	T.Lincecum vs C.Lee	TEX	62.26%	57.96%	70%

Notes: Vegas and the Simulator matching up a little better in Game #5 than they did in Game #4. The oddsmakers are still weighting the Rangers chances of winning the game more so than the Giants chances. I suppose most of the people wagering on the game feel that the Rangers will be tough to close out with Cliff Lee on the mound. AccuScore has been taken over by a german shepard. Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 5.5
2. Cliff Lee total strikeouts: 7.5
3. Rangers total bases minus Giants total bases: 2.5
4. Tim Lincecum total number of pitches: 106.5
5. Number of half innings scored in, combined both teams: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 TEX 3-2	51 TEX 8-3	101 TEX 11-3
2 TEX 4-3	52 SF 7-5	102 TEX 10-0
3 TEX 2-1	53 SF 7-2	103 TEX 10-6
4 TEX 5-4	54 SF 5-0	104 SF 9-0
5 SF 3-2	55 TEX 8-4	105 TEX 9-7
6 SF 4-3	56 TEX 8-7	106 TEX 11-5
7 SF 2-1	57 SF 7-1	107 SF 11-4
8 TEX 4-2	58 TEX 7-0	108 SF 11-3
9 TEX 3-1	59 TEX 8-1	109 SF 9-8
10 SF 4-2	60 SF 8-2	110 TEX 12-3
11 SF 3-1	61 SF 8-3	111 SF 11-2
12 TEX 5-3	62 TEX 8-5	112 SF 10-6
13 TEX 4-1	63 SF 8-4	113 TEX 12-2
14 TEX 5-2	64 TEX 9-2	114 SF 11-1
15 TEX 6-5	65 TEX 9-3	115 TEX 10-7
16 SF 5-4	66 SF 8-1	116 TEX 10-9
17 TEX 1-0	67 TEX 9-1	117 SF 10-7
18 SF 5-3	68 SF 6-0	118 TEX 12-1
19 SF 5-2	69 SF 8-5	119 SF 11-5
20 SF 4-1	70 TEX 8-6	120 TEX 12-4
21 TEX 2-0	71 SF 8-6	121 SF 12-3
22 TEX 5-1	72 TEX 9-4	122 TEX 11-0
23 TEX 6-3	73 SF 8-7	123 SF 11-6
24 TEX 6-4	74 TEX 8-0	124 SF 10-0
25 TEX 6-2	75 SF 9-3	125 SF 12-2
26 TEX 3-0	76 SF 9-4	126 TEX 11-6
27 SF 6-4	77 SF 7-0	127 SF 12-4
28 SF 1-0	78 SF 9-2	128 TEX 12-0
29 SF 6-5	79 TEX 10-2	129 TEX 12-5
30 SF 2-0	80 TEX 10-3	130 SF 12-1
31 SF 6-3	81 TEX 10-4	131 SF 10-8
32 TEX 4-0	82 TEX 9-5	132 TEX 13-3
33 SF 5-1	83 TEX 10-1	133 SF 11-7
34 TEX 6-1	84 TEX 9-6	134 TEX 13-1
35 SF 3-0	85 TEX 9-8	135 TEX 13-2
36 TEX 7-2	86 SF 9-1	136 TEX 10-8
37 TEX 7-6	87 SF 9-5	137 SF 10-9
38 SF 6-2	88 SF 10-3	138 SF 12-6
39 TEX 7-3	89 TEX 9-0	139 TEX 13-4
40 TEX 7-4	90 SF 9-6	140 SF 11-0
41 TEX 5-0	91 SF 8-0	141 TEX 11-7
42 TEX 7-1	92 SF 10-4	142 TEX 13-5
43 SF 6-1	93 SF 9-7	143 TEX 11-10
44 SF 4-0	94 TEX 11-2	144 TEX 12-6
45 SF 7-4	95 TEX 10-5	145 SF 12-5
46 TEX 7-5	96 SF 10-2	146 SF 13-2
47 TEX 8-2	97 SF 10-1	147 SF 11-8
48 SF 7-3	98 TEX 11-1	148 TEX 14-2
49 TEX 6-0	99 SF 10-5	149 SF 13-3
50 SF 7-6	100 TEX 11-4	150 SF 11-9

Tweet Comment 14 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

13 TEX 4-1

UOOOU

by nivarsity on Nov 1, 2010 8:11 AM CDT reply actions

I'd just like to point out

that I love your running commentary on AccuScore.

If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.

by GhettoBear04 on Nov 1, 2010 9:46 AM CDT reply actions

I concur, Doctor.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Nov 1, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions

link me please

by alon91 on Nov 1, 2010 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm simple

I like Xeifrank when his simulator says the Rangers will probably win.

I don’t like Xeifrank when his simulator says the Rangers will probably lose.

Bottom line: Rangers lose, I blame Xeifrank.

by VM on Nov 1, 2010 11:03 AM CDT reply actions

8 OOOOU

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Nov 1, 2010 1:41 PM CDT reply actions

17 TEX 1-0

UOUUU

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Nov 1, 2010 2:03 PM CDT reply actions

70%?!

Give me #3, TEX 2-1
UOOOU

Last over/under is kind of a weird one. I also think it’s very high considering the line on the first one.

"Are you willing to do what it takes to win?" - Dave Valle

by Past A Diving Michael Young on Nov 1, 2010 3:02 PM CDT reply actions

O/U

Yeah, that’s a new one for you guys. If the Rangers score one run in three separate innings and the Giants score one time, then you’ve hit the over on it. If you think 6 runs will be scored in a game, how many non zeroes do you think you will see on the scoreboard? Obviously a minimum of four total runs must be scored to have any chance at the over. The more the runs scored are spread out during the game, the more likely the over hits. Everyone has the “under” on it so far. :)

by Xeifrank on Nov 1, 2010 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions