Risk and Pitchers

by pblack on Nov 18, 2010 4:09 PM CST

The Rangers are currently connected with both Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke. Both would be considered TORPs and both would come at a high price, but the price would be different. I am interested in what everyone thinks is the bigger risk in acquiring a TORP, $$$ or prospects. Let's compare.

For argument's sake, let's say it would cost 6/120 to get Lee. That would give you his ages 32-37 seasons. The first 2-3 seasons, one would expect very good to excellent performance, while the last 3-4, one would expect decline to the point where, by year 5, the Rangers could be paying $20 million for league average or worse performance. So the risk is obvious, and it would be at the expense of payroll flexibility.

Now consider Greinke. The cost for him will be prospects + $$. His contract is currently around 2/27, and then there are players required to get him. Today, Jamey streamlined his potential offer to this: Holland, Perez and then a choice of 3 guys, so to simplify we will choose Profar. So you have Holland, Perez and Profar, + $27 mil for Greinke's age 27-28 seasons, and his mercurial nature.

So, my question is, which is the bigger risk?

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This is a risky post.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Nov 18, 2010 4:27 PM CST reply actions

Bofe

by Jobu. on Nov 18, 2010 4:55 PM CST reply actions

If the risk if financial, you can almost always defer payments, restructure, or trim the budget elsewhere

You can’t call KC back and say ‘Hey, takesie-backsie on Profar back now that he’s Hanley 2.0’.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Did you call the hypothetical hardware store and buy a theoretical chain saw?

by Keynes on Nov 18, 2010 7:42 PM CST reply actions

IMHO you are a little light on the cost for Lee.

He is gonna get around $23M per, but you are right about the risks that come with the length of the contract.

You can only be young once but can be immature forever!

by Bigfan16 on Nov 19, 2010 11:14 AM CST reply actions

Isn't the real risk in doing neither Greinke nor Lee?

You can only be young once but can be immature forever!

by Bigfan16 on Nov 19, 2010 11:22 AM CST reply actions

The Rangers are set up to compete for a few years IF they have an ace on the mound.

If I was the Rangers, I’d give up prospects rather than money. You can’t be saddled down with that huge Lee contract in six years. If you get Greinke, you’ve got an option in two years on what to do. You aren’t saddled down when he’s 36 and 37 and league average at best. However, I’m all for the Rangers signing Lee and trading for Greinke.

That’d be sweet.

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Nov 19, 2010 7:15 PM CST reply actions