Predict Cliff Lee's Contract
by t ball on Nov 3, 2010 10:58 AM CDT
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PrintIt's time to predict what it will take to sign Lee.
Here's what I think it will take:
- 5 years, $125M, vesting option for 6th year at same, team option for 7th year, $10M buyout
- No trade clause (Lee is going to insist on this)
- Private plane to fly to Ark from anywhere the Rangers play. Rangers agree to fund R&D for teleportation device to make trips faster.
- Hefty donation to Leukemia charity org of Lee family's choice, frequent drives for favored charity each year.
- bonuses for ALCS and WS MVP, Cy Young
- up to 12 comely lasses available on call 24/7. These can be offered to CJ Wilson and other pitchers as wished.
- Mr. Lee will be referred to as Cliff Lee!!! in all official team publications.
- Ballwasher, hand picked by Cliff Lee!!!, on call 24/7.
- Rose petals to be strewn in front of Cliff Lee!!! as he walks.
- Birthday becomes TX state holiday
Post your predictions and vote in the poll below.
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Agreed
Was going to say 6 years 135-140.
Heyman says he thinks the Yanks could get him for a deal around the Santana range (6/138). I think he’s vastly underestimating Lee’s desire to stay and the Rangers ability to pay if he thinks the Yanks will get him for that little.
"I fully expect to lose tonight" -- LSJ
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 3, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
agree on contract
but he goes through the auction process.
by Sherman McCoy on Nov 3, 2010 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmm
I agreed to the contract — skipped over the “before FA” thing
"I fully expect to lose tonight" -- LSJ
I don't think it goes that high.
That’s the same years as CC and more per year. And CC was like 3-4 years younger when he signed his deal. If they offer that they’re idiots.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Yep, Yanks
7/165
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there is a man on base." - Dave Barry
by Suicide Prince on Nov 3, 2010 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
ridiculous, then I'll help pack his bags(and try to squeeze my way in)
lol but yeah I want him back badly, but no way can or should the Rangers go that high.
I should add that I won't shed a tear if he ends up with the Yankees
Lee is worth a lot, but there’s a pretty good chance the contract will be an albatross in a couple of years. He’s had some back problems, and when his command isn’t there he’s hittable. Without his salary, which I expect will be in the $22-25M range, the Rangers can fill multiple holes and spend lots of money on next year’s stellar draft class — for which they’d have an additional 2 picks if Lee signs with the Yankees.
There are pluses and minuses for Lee staying and for him leaving. I trust the front office has a price it will not exceed to keep the team from being hamstrung.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
5 years $110 million Rangers with mutual 6th year option for $18 million
and someone to wash his balls
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
IF they can get him
on a 5 year contract, I’ll be thrilled. I kind of doubt it though.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
I am worried about that back as he gets older
I wonder if his missing of location on his pitches only gets worse with age. I am just afraid he will start throwing meatballs when his velocity and location begins to suffer because all of his pitches are around the plate and a small mistake by him ends up over the fence. If that makes sense
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Lee has superb control of his pitches though
He might lose something on his fastball, but plenty of pitchers have gotten by otherwise.
Greg Maddux comes to mind. Big Unit
by oc on Nov 3, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I still remember him struggling late in the regular season and the World Series
My only concern is an injury causing that again. But I am all about resigning that’s just a shit ton of cash if we do 6 or 7 years.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
I don't think that gets it done.
The last two offseasons free agent salaries stagnated, or even declined if you’re figuring dollars per WAR. I think this winter inflation is back. Look at the contracts that have already been signed for Ted Lilly and others. DH types and older hitters will continue to be something of a bargain relative to the past, but pitchers are going to be expensive this winter.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I agree with all of this
This postseason has allowed me to set aside my grumpiness towards the trade, but I’m still not sold that the team should spend $20 million+ on a single player, particularly one who is aging fast and is already showing back problems.
I’m terrified that Cliff Lee will be Kevin Brown redux. Brown was great when he pitched under that huge contract, but he rarely pitched. I can easily see Lee averaging only 20 starts a year over the 2013-2015 seasons.
Go Rice Owls!
my fear is greenberg
I get the sense that he will be in “sign lee at any cost” mode just to win over fans and make a point. i hope this is not the case…i want Lee here but would be just as happy using that money on international players and other big time free agents.
Greenberg
even if he feels that way (which I doubt) he’s not the only person in on that decision.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Matter of fact, percentage wise he's probably not even a factor when it comes to the actual finances.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
He is likely
a rounding error, as is Ryan
by thedudeabides on Nov 8, 2010 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
very true
signing lee would be a huge boost to this team from a marketing stand point. I look back at the auction and just the comments he made afterwards. They had put so much time and effort into buying this team and weren’t going to be denied. I could see them viewing lee in the same sense.
I'm certain that Greenberg
(and others on the ownership team and in the front office) would LOVE to keep Lee away from the Yankees. But only at a cost that makes sense, there will be no cock-blocking for the sake of doing so here. The thought of facing Lee in the playoffs next year is not pleasant, but I’ll stomach it if the price is too high.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
after reading the article below on the yankees finances
I’m not so sure the price will go out of our price range. for the yankees, they would like have to either shed a ton of payroll or they are looking at increasing their payroll to likely above 230million to acquire lee. I don’t think they will be able to do the same as they did with C.C. and just outspend everyone. I think lee will have 2-4 offers in the same price range and ultimately decide to stay in Texas. At first i thought it would reach the 25mil/year level but i’m not so sure it will.
Yanks are shedding like 50 MM in payroll this year
by Sherman McCoy on Nov 3, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
A good bulk of that's going...
to re-signing Jeter and Rivera and (assuming he doesn’t retire) Pettite.
Pettite... He gone.
I really don’t see him playing anymore.
"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz
It's possible the Yankees
force him to retire by giving him a low ball offer. If it is a choice between Pettite or Lee they would have to go Lee.
You didn't read closely enough
if you think they’d have to go to 230.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Personally
I’m not sure they need a big marketing boost. Signing a player is a one year boost, and I suspect going to the World series gave you as much of a boost as you are ever going to get.
You sign Lee because you think it makes sense from a baseball standpoint, not because you think it makes sense from a marketing standpoint.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
Oh, it probably plays some role.
We both know that the fan base is going to be more excited about a rotation fronted by Lee than one fronted by Wilson or Lewis.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
6/140 (frontloaded so they can pay for it with the new TV deal)
with a 7th year that becomes vested with a 180IP average for years 1-6 of the deal.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
1 million dollars!!!
A million dollars isn’t exactly a lot of money these days.
Really? Okay then, we pay him…One… Hundred… BILLION DOLLARS
"Calmer than you are dude"
I’m only slightly smarter than a sea sponge
by brettgardner on Sep 10, 2010 12:03 PM PDT
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 3, 2010 11:25 AM CDT reply actions
the only way the Yankees get him is by throwing just STUPID money at him
something like 7y-200M, and they’re not going to do that.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
don't be so sure
Part of me thinks that this contract will be the beginning of salary cap discussions around the league.
by Sherman McCoy on Nov 3, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Nah,
the smaller market teams make too much from the Yankees sitting at $210M.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Here is what I think happens
Rangers offer:
5 years, 120 million, team option for $24 million 6th year, $5 million buyout, vests similar to Millwood (180IP in 2015, 360 in 2014-2015, or 540 in 2013-2015).
No trade (obviously)
Very large bonus for Cy Young
My fun contract addition: Cliff Lee can opt out of the contract after 3 years if the Rangers have not made the playoffs in any of those seasons. This would give him security about the team becoming non-competitive despite his good pitching.
New York will offer something like 5 years, 140 million, but Lee will decline it as the tax differential doesn’t make sense. NY won’t go to $30 million/year, as that’ll essentially be costing them well over $40 million.
FWIW, I’d offer something more like 4/90 and would be very hesitant to guarantee a 5th year. But this is a discussion about what I think will happen instead of what I want to happen.
Go Rice Owls!
I agree with you.
Maybe slightly different on the specifics, but I think that’s what they end up settling in on.
I think the Yankees will offer 6 years, $150M and an opt out after 3 years. Cliff Lee will have to decide between the differences in taxes, market, etc.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
This won't be popular...
but I’ve been saying for a couple months now that he’ll get 6/140 from the Yankees.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
what do you think the Rangers offer him, if he picks that offer?
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
I think they stay around 5/115-120...
and I think that’s a wise decision.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I say 6/140 to us
Bonuses for everything under the sun (innings, Cy Young, WS MVP, etc…)
6th year is option year with a buyout
PLUS…………
- a brand new toilet seat be installed at any ballpark played
- 24 bars of Ivory soap and Flintstones chewable vitamins
- four “soft head” toothbrushes, Listerine mouth wash and mint-flavored Sensodyne
- an organic cheese tray featuring cave-aged Gruyere, Swiss and sharp cheddar, along with organic berries, fresh – not canned – olives and Ferrero Rocher chocolates.
- butterfly-cut organic free range pork chops for the bus
- and a fishing pole and bait
I think he's goint to get paid, but 5 or 6 guaranteed years for a 32/33 year old seems unrealistic.
I’m going with 4 guaranteed years. Vesting options based on IP that can push it to 5 and 6 years. Those options revert to team options if they don’t vest. 7 mil buyout.
To account for only 4 years guaranteed Cliff Lee!!! can opt out after 2 years if the Rangers miss the playoffs in both seasons, or finish in last in the AL West in year 2.
2/55, 4/100, 6/120
He's one of those lefties who will pitch well in his late thirties.
Lefties are just built differently. If Andy Pettitte, Kenny Rogers, and Jamie Moyer can do it into their forties, Lee can.
by Big D Bam Bam on Nov 3, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I didn't say he would
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
The Yanks offer him 8/300
agree to move New York closer to Arkansas.
"There's really no way of knowing... Sometimes when I see their big eyes looking up from my lap I think, that's definitely a homeless guy in a fur coat." Betty White on SNL
So...
if the Rangers offer him 10/400 and annex Arkansas that should work, right?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Yes
I think they’ll also need to start a religion called Cliffleeanity that all Texans must worship.
There will be a new book in which to follow where stories of Baby Cliff saving everyone at the Alamo will warm our hearts and guide us down the path of low walk totals. Everyone will know of the story of Cliff vs. The Beast From The Bronx, in which Cliff was able to destroy the greedy monster with a well placed fastball on the outside corner, then the inside corner, and finally a looping curve that left the beast frozen with fear in a puddle of it’s own urine.
Christmas will obviously be “Cliffmas” from now on, starting in 2010. Also, Easter will be moved to July, the month our Savior Cliff Lee graced the Rangers with his presence. (It may also be celebrated in June for some reason?) It will be referred to in the Book of Cliff as “Cliff Lee!!!” Children will hunt for “Cliff Lee!!!” eggs decorated in red and blue.
Oh what a glorious time…
"There's really no way of knowing... Sometimes when I see their big eyes looking up from my lap I think, that's definitely a homeless guy in a fur coat." Betty White on SNL
by Pocket Ninja on Nov 3, 2010 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
It's going to be $25M a season.
Rangers will match anything up to six years, bail if New York throws in a seventh.
Seriously though, the ball is in Texas’ court here. So long as they’re willing to match the Yanks, he’s staying. Matching offers mean that the tax issue will always tilt it in Texas’ favor.
If they get outbid, it’ll be on years.
6/125
NTC
250k for each CYA, MVP, WSMVP, ALCS MVP, lead league in wins, blah blah blah
can you do it underwater
like the chick in Coming to America?
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I don't think Cliff is the sole heir to the throne of Zamunda
But yeah I can do that
by oc on Nov 3, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
You mean you didn't hear?
Zamunda had a military coup in 1995. For the next 15 years, the country was ruled by a junta. Then in October of this year, the people rose up and overthrew the junta. Because the junta had killed all of the royal family, there were no remaining heirs to the throne, so the people decided to elect a new king. The election was held yesterday, and Clifton Pfifer Lee received 99% of the votes, making him king of Zamunda for life.
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
by crazy86er on Nov 3, 2010 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That has actually happened in the past in several countries when no heirs were available.
The nobility elected a king, or they just found some foreign royal and asked him to be king. There were also some duchies/kingdoms in the Holy Roman Empire and Eastern Europe (Poland is one example) that officially elected their kings. Of course, in Poland’s case this usually meant that the next heir to the Jagiellon dynasty was elected as king, but they actually did hold elections.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_election
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
I found this article pretty interesting
The Yankees already have a lot of money committed to next year and the Steinbrenners have said that payroll is going to be where it was this year, meaning the Yankees are going to have to do a lot of juggling or get creative to add Lee.
RIP Feldman
I think we keep him
I don’t think we will go to 7 years. I think we will go 6 years max and go somewhere close to $25 million per. I think we do that and then all get down on our knees and pray that this is not another Barry Zito.
RIP Feldman
Basically..
I think some are going to be surprised by how much we’re willing to pay. Not something crazy but I highly doubt the Yankees are going to blow us out the water with their offer. I’ve been hearing from too many folks including the folks with the actual deep pockets(simpson) that they are going hard after him and will be aggressive, imo they mean it.
Interesting read
With current commitments and arb contract, it looks like the Yankees can spend about $50M or so and still be “within the same level” for 2011 as Hal Steinbrenner said. They can backload Lee’s contract slightly, knowing that both Jeter and Rivera will be gone by the end of it. In 2011 Lee gets about $20-21M, and they spend about $25-29 combined on Rivera and Jeter and whatever else they do to fill out the roster.
I don’t think they’ll hesitate.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
NY's offering $20M and Texas is offering $25M, he's not going anywhere.
$25M a season is the buy-in here, which means that that’s going to have to be one hell of a backload if the first couple of seasons are in the $20M-$21M range.
I just don’t see any realistic way NY can hold onto that $206M figure while out-bidding Texas for Lee and holding onto Jeter and Mo, who are still probably going to cost them $15M each.
by Big D Bam Bam on Nov 3, 2010 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
By not paying Pettitte.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
They're talking tough about Jeter
it will be interesting to see what they really do.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I think the Yanks have all the leverage in negiotiating with Jeets
unless another suitor steps up, and I’m not sure that any other team would seriously consider signing him.
What is Jeter gonna do if he doesn’t like the Yanks best offer? Threaten to retire?
Yeah
there isn’t a team in baseball who would consider some of the things Jeter is apparently asking for, like a 6 year contract at the age of 37. I think Jeter has a delusionally high value of himself.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
It just depends how many guys they bring back.
I assume they’ll bring back Jeter and Mariano Rivera, but the truth is that if Pettitte retires, they could easily afford Lee. I don’t think they can sign all of those guys back and sign Lee on top of that, but I could be wrong.
I’m betting they try to sign Lee and then use Pettitte as a backup plan.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Yeah, Pettite seems to be the key
If he stays then things will get interesting. Of course, if he leaves and they sign Lee you have to ask if they’ll have enough elite pitching to win a title. CC and Lee are a great 1/2 but then you have Hughes and Burnett and then what.
RIP Feldman
I think Hughes will be better next year.
Though I’m not sure he’ll be a good enough No.3 to win them a WS.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Someone voted other
which team? I could see Detroit or Boston as dark horses here.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
If he's just going to play mercenary
I could potentially see a dark horse team swoop in and make an offer that no other team should match.
Washington, maybe. They seem like the type that would do that. Maybe the other New York.
by vfn on Nov 3, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
The Mets don't seem likely to add payroll
from their new GM’s comments the other day, and I don’t see Lee giving up on being competitive in Washington for a few million more.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Hard to see Boston
If they hadn’t signed Lackey last year, then maybe. But they have huge money tied up in Lackey and Beckett. They have Lester and Bucholtz who will need to be taken care of soon. Then there is Dice K who is still owed.
RIP Feldman
You also have to ask
if Cliff Lee wants to pitch in certain places. I could definitely see him pitching in Boston but you would have to think that he would not want to live in Detroit
RIP Feldman
So he'd be like the rest of America?
If I had a gun to my head and had to pick one pitcher to pitch a game to save my life.... I'd pick 1999 Rick Helling.
by matthewbschultz83 on Nov 3, 2010 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I can see Boston getting creative
signing Lee and trading someone and letting their payroll increase a bit.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
yeah
I think if it looks like Texas will get Lee, Boston won’t push hard. But if it looks more like NY is going to get him, then Boston will definitely do something to try to get him.
There is some funky game theory involved. The problem for Boston is that outright entering the Lee sweepstakes just moves his price up, making it more likely Lee goes to NY. So I imagine that they’ll sit on the sidelines hoping that he goes to Texas.
Ideal for Boston is that Lee goes to the NL, but the number of potential NL landing spots is pretty thin.
Go Rice Owls!
Speaking of,
I’d love to trade Feldman to an NL team for a prospect in the top 40-80 range on Top100 prospect lists. Some team like the Padres or some such should be interested in buying low, in my opinion.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
I'd love to bang supermodels every night
But thats about as likely as getting a top 40-80 prospect for Feldman and im one of Scooters biggest supporters.
Unless you mean a top 40-80 per team not top 40-80 overall
pfft, you don't bang supermodels every night?
/FP
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
Haha
Adam would say “Feldman won’t be traded. Why would the Rangers want to trade Scott Feldman?”
Cahill would say “Feldman won’t be traded. No one wants to pay Scott Feldman what he is owed.”
JBImaknee would say “That’s a great idea, GhettoBear04. I think some team out there would be interested, hoping to get him cheap off a bad season. Maybe not a top 100 prospect, but a Carlos Melo type high ceiling very high risk 18 year old and an opportunity to clear our books of a terrible waste of money (for this particular team)”
Go Rice Owls!
I don't think you can send him to AAA
Which means he’s the longman/spot starter and I can’t help but wonder if his trade value is as high as it’s going to be right now.
Heh, I like your response, though.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
5 years/$115m
Give or take an incentive-based or team option on the 5th year, or a 6th.
Go Strangers.
5/120 Guaranteed
-20 million dollar signing bonus
-vesting option for 6th year at 24 million that vests with 180 IP in 2015 or 400 IP in 2014-2015
-full no trade clause
-clause written in where at least once a month in between starts Cliff is allowed to fly home and be with his family for 2-3 days
x
Rangers will go, oh, 6 years, 135 million. Yankees go about 7 years, 160 million. Where he goes is up to him, but if I had to guess, I’ll assume the Yankees. Money talks (and there ain’t a thing wrong with that).
by Giant Space Ants on Nov 3, 2010 2:02 PM CDT reply actions
Congratulations.
You just pooped on my party.
:(
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
5 years/110 mil
I think people here are outbidding their own projections now. Sabathia was a unique case. He’s quite a bit younger, he is just as good, and the yankees had a bunch of contracts coming off the books. 5 years 110 still pays him more than any pitcher not named Sabathia (including Halladay, who just re-upped at 20 mil per). The economy is not out of the woods and the incredible inflation of the early 00’s in baseball is a thing of the past.
I would normally agree with you
but free agency is weird in that it is essentially an auction in an irrational market. In most cases, four or five teams will be interested in a given FA, and each will make an offer based on the expected value they project for the player over the contract duration. Of course, being an auction, the player will typically go to the team that has the highest expected value. But key to this is that all the teams are bidding on expected value, not maximum possible value.
Now, every once in a while you get irrational bidders. Teams who essentially are willing to bid up to maximum possible value instead of expected value. In theory, if you only have one of those teams, the player is only slightly overpaid because other bidders drop out fast. (ARod and Hicks being the exception to this, though notably ARod did live up to the contract). However, if you have TWO teams willing to be irrational and pay “whatever it takes” things can get crazy.
I think most of us think that Texas and New York are willing to be irrational about this. The Yankees can afford to be irrational, and they clearly think they need Lee. Texas, unusually, has a perfect storm aligning to be irrational as well. New owners, fresh of World Series visit, etc.
So you’re right – in theory Lee shouldn’t get more than Halladay (who is a better pitcher). But the stars are aligned for Lee…
Go Rice Owls!
good points, but 5/110 is still in the realm of irrational
Lee is a great pitcher, but he’s not head and shoulders a top 3 pitcher in baseball. 5/110 pays him like that. 6/150??? I’ll bet anyone on here up to 200 dollars that when all is said and done his contract is not that high. any takers?
He was worth more than $22M this year.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
so he was a top 3 player in baseball?
As of now, only 3 players made 22 million. All Yankees. Based on everyone here, I’m way off. However, all the projections have Cliff Lee not as a top 10 player, but a top 2 paid player in baseball, with a contract that will be one of the longest. Do people not realize that 21 million per year, 5/105, still makes cliff lee a top 5 paid player? This is what I mean when I say people are outbidding their own ridiculous bids.
Many players aren't paid what they're worth.
The closest/best approximation we have suggests that Cliff Lee was worth around $28M last year. Now, that is based off of the value he provided over a replacement player based on the stats he put up this past year, which is not what you would seek to pay him.
I expect he’ll probably be worth an average of ~$22M year over the next 5 years, it’s just that each year may range from a lot higher to a lot lower than that average over that time. This assumes things like accounting for inflation in baseball contracts (which does not necessarily mirror inflation in the US at large) is offset by the discount players give in order to have guaranteed money in a long-term deal.
In other words, it’s not just a number drawn out of thin air.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
that's fair
but 28 million would put him as the highest paid baseball player, which seems a bit over the top. I guess all this “what a player is worth” talk is a little bit weird when the actual list of players and what they are paid doesn’t line up with it. The top three guys in baseball were ARod, CC, and Jeter. we are all betting that Lee is worth more than the three highest yankees (more than Santana, Halladay, Pujols, etc, (only including players past arbitration years)). I just think its ridiculous to make these assumptions. Clearly I am alone. Someone please, place a bet with me. up to 200 dollars says cliff lee doesn’t make 138mil this offseason.
Pitching is scarce
at least at that level, and the price will be high.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
$120/5yr + $30 mil vesting option ($5 mil buyout)
This makes him the highest paid pitcher (per annum)
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take it for what you will
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
In his defense, you are a retarded cuntbag by LiamP on Mar 4, 2010
Seems about right.
I don’t think the Yankees are going to blow Texas’ offer out of the water in terms of annual salary, I just worry that they beat it out in years.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Ditto.
The Yankees like their players old, so they can afford to offer Cliff more years.
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
Right
And they have the big four coming off the books in the latter years of a Lee contract, so they can afford an albatross in years 5-7, e.g.
by thedudeabides on Nov 8, 2010 3:28 PM CST up reply actions
125/6 years with mutual option for 7....with the Rangers
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I think the Rangers will be willing to go with 25 yearly liek you do.
so 25/125 but if that one extra yr is a sticking point, I think they may add it as an option.
Crowdsourcing on FanGraphs gives Lee 5/105. so....20mil a year
interesting….much lower than I thought and much lower than Dave Cameron thinks, too
That seems overly optimistic
There are almost no decent pitchers available after Lee. I agree with Cameron that a 5 year/$105M deal would be considered a victory for the signing team. If the Rangers offer that the Yankees beat it easily.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Rangers Win
6 years, 140million
And we all cry, good and bad tears
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by FormerLSBUser on Nov 3, 2010 6:56 PM CDT reply actions
4 years 110MM
"what I have learned in 11 years in the sports business is that the dumbest guys in the room are always the media guys." - mark cuban
6 years/$150 mil. Yankees.
One thing I see mentioned in different places (including in here) is the “no state income tax” thing.
I give Evan Grant a lot of grief, but he said something this year that I totally agreed with- this no state income tax in TX thing is a benefit for the PLAYER, not for the TEAM
If NYY offers $150 mil, the Rangers need to match or top that. Not offer $130 mil or $140 mil and count on the player to give them the “no state income tax” discount.
I’m pretty sure agents get their cut before taxes are taken out, anyway. And the players association wants the biggest number possible on that contract, so the bar is set at the highest level possible for future free agents.
"Whenever I'm about to do something, I think 'Would an idiot do that?' And if they would, I do not do that thing."
Why would the player accept less take home pay
just because his agent got his cut before taxes?
Of course the player should care about take home pay vs gross. I certainly would consider that if I had a job offer from NY or California and Texas
Go Rice Owls!
My point was the agent will pressure the player to take the higher gross amount....
….since the agent obviously makes more $$$ if his cut comes out of $150 mil instead of out of $140 mil.
I’m not always good at expressing my opinions as clearly as they sound in my brain.
"Whenever I'm about to do something, I think 'Would an idiot do that?' And if they would, I do not do that thing."
I understand what you're saying
I just think that people are assuming agents have more power than they really have. Sure, the agent would prefer New York. But as soon as an agent starts forcing recommendations that are against the best interest of their client by saying things like “take 150 million in NY instead of 145 in Texas – just ignore the face that the net value of the NY deal is 135”, we have an agent who won’t have clients for long.
Now, it isn’t a straight up “Rangers can underbid NY by their tax rate”. If the Texas deal = NY deal – tax; then sure, the agent, the players association, possible endorsements will bias it towards NY. But if the Texas deal is within $1 million of NY? The tax differnce makes the Texas big stronger.
ab03 was ranting about how players won’t take less money just because of their wives the other day. Well, players aren’t going to take less net money just because of their agent or the players association either.
Go Rice Owls!
i don't think the agent would make it that simple
he’d start talking about endorsements and how the Yankees have proven (over time) that they will do whatever it takes to field a contender year after year.
If the tax fact supports Texas, he’ll find a way to recommend NY.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
Apparently Seattle resigned him on MLB 2K10
for 4/38.
Maybe we’re doing something wrong?
Fight to the end, now we ascend, together we will take them down.
by AfterSchoolSpecial on Nov 3, 2010 10:07 PM CDT reply actions
Ryan Rowland-Smith.
That’s what.
Don't listen to me. I'm a fucking moron.
by hornedfrogs45 on Nov 4, 2010 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions
He's 27
Cliff Lee: "Seventy or 80 percent of [Hamilton] is better than everyone else. Everyone knows his history. He’s a complete player who plays every aspect well. He’s the best player I’ve ever played with. That’s the best compliment I can give him.’’
My guess:
He’ll sign with the Rangers on Dec. 25th
by oc on Nov 4, 2010 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
CLIFFMAS MORN'!
Cliff Lee: "Seventy or 80 percent of [Hamilton] is better than everyone else. Everyone knows his history. He’s a complete player who plays every aspect well. He’s the best player I’ve ever played with. That’s the best compliment I can give him.’’
Im guessing it happens quick
I don’t see Cliff as the type of guy who will drag out negotiations. I am guessing he tells his agent to get it done as quick as possible. There don’t appear to be a ton of teams who have legit shots at him besides the Yankees and Rangers. So unless some mystery team jumps into the bidding hard I see him signing within the first week or so of free agency.
Wait, Cliff Lee isn't going to have a televised 2 hour long event...
that is completely blown out of proportional where he waits until the very last 2nd to announce his signing?
Although a lengthy contract would see diminishing returns over time
Cliff does not seem to be the kind of guy that would continue to throw if he had nothing left. To me he seems like the kind of guy that would not want to finish his career with a bad taste in his mouth
we're from Texas
CJ says "Relax"
Detroit
The more I think about this the more I think Detroit is a dark horse here. They just dumped the salaries of Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, and Adam Everett (all owed money after being dealt away) and Magglio Ordonez. Their payroll is dropping by $50-60M. And after 2011 they can drop another $20M by letting go of Carlos Guillen and Valverde.
They have lots of room to sign Lee and still go after Crawford or Victor Martinez in a big way.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
5/132 (roughly equal to 140 in New York due to taxes, but not counting cost of living differences) + vesting option
NTC plus standard bonuses.
Signed on 12/28 after JD makes a Christmas visit to Arkansas.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Nov 6, 2010 12:05 AM CDT reply actions
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