Rangers 2011 ZiPS Projections

by coolaid on Nov 9, 2010 3:35 PM CST

Dan Szymborski has posted 2011 ZiPS Projections for the Rangers.

At this point, the Rangers still look like the favorite in the AL West, but we're probably looking at the mid-to-upper-80s for wins rather than an AL beatdown if Lee and Guerrero can't be replaced adequately. A lot did go right for the Rangers and the absolutely sick bullpen should keep the team's bottom from dropping out if the breaks otherwise don't go their way in 2011.

ZiPS is pretty meh on Moreland. Projects Borbon and Elvis to have OPS+ under 85. Richard is projected to have a better ERA than Holland (4.15 compared to 4.54).

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Buzz Oliver?

"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW

by Rodney on Nov 9, 2010 3:49 PM CST reply actions

I think that's...

DO.

by coolaid on Nov 9, 2010 3:58 PM CST up reply actions

4.73 ERA for Hunter

Seems reasonable.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 9, 2010 7:05 PM CST reply actions

would be nice in that KC rotation

"what I have learned in 11 years in the sports business is that the dumbest guys in the room are always the media guys." - mark cuban

by Longhorn on Nov 9, 2010 7:08 PM CST up reply actions

"I also have to say that I was pretty obviously wrong about C.J. Wilson. As recently as the All Star Break, I proclaimed the decision to move him the rotation a failure. That was epicfail of a, well, epic nature" - AJM

by chrisR on Nov 9, 2010 7:55 PM CST up reply actions

had some fun looking at the Royals 2010 roster

So many former Rangers pitching failures. Josh Rupe, Mendoza~!, Bruce Chen, Robbie Tejeda (was actually decent), Jesse Chavez (former Rangers farmhand),

by chrisR on Nov 9, 2010 8:01 PM CST up reply actions

Fun fact:

The only game I went to in ‘09 was Mendoza’s last game as a Ranger. It was a 2 1/2 hour game that featured 3 rain delays, so it actually took like 6 hours. Mendoza’s appearance went flyball out, lineout, single, hit-by-pitch, walk, AJ Pierzynski grand slam, flyout. I want my money back.

I never have anything interesting to say, but follow me anyway.

by AsDevilsRun on Nov 9, 2010 8:11 PM CST up reply actions

I was at that game. Terrible.

I remember sitting 2 rows behind the Ranger dugout about 12:30am in the 8th inning.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by TxStCa on Nov 9, 2010 11:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I actually ended up sitting right behind home plate.

Best seats I will ever have. Still not worth it.

I never have anything interesting to say, but follow me anyway.

by AsDevilsRun on Nov 9, 2010 11:06 PM CST up reply actions

Fx2 has some nice comps.

'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'

by scoop16 on Nov 9, 2010 7:08 PM CST reply actions

I really like Colbayashi's comps

by kevinkinsler on Nov 9, 2010 7:13 PM CST up reply actions

I'll say. I missed those.

'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'

by scoop16 on Nov 9, 2010 7:18 PM CST up reply actions

Oops

I misread that… 9-6 record! nice

by knuckleball03 on Nov 9, 2010 7:12 PM CST up reply actions

The Martin Perez debut

isn’t project to go so well…

But hey! Heidi Richardson is back!

"there's no money in triples" - CJ, 3.23.10

by Oddibee on Nov 9, 2010 7:14 PM CST reply actions

HEIDI!

Cliff Lee: "Seventy or 80 percent of [Hamilton] is better than everyone else. Everyone knows his history. He’s a complete player who plays every aspect well. He’s the best player I’ve ever played with. That’s the best compliment I can give him.’’

by RangersSD on Nov 9, 2010 9:31 PM CST up reply actions

Pretty reasonable projections for most of the regulars

Of course its off on playing time and there are the guys like Beltre who won’t be on the ML team with a 71 OPS+.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 9, 2010 7:15 PM CST reply actions

Mark Lowe having a good year could be huge for our pen

"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34

Hey Arod. You're fucking out. And we're fucking in.

"If we do that," Lee says, "it would be hard to walk away."

by Brian Thomas on Nov 9, 2010 7:15 PM CST reply actions

2011XFactor

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Nov 9, 2010 10:09 PM CST up reply actions

BB/9 < 2: Lee = 100%.

I never have anything interesting to say, but follow me anyway.

by AsDevilsRun on Nov 9, 2010 7:16 PM CST reply actions

How do the extrapolated career statistics work?

does that list mean none of our pitchers have a long enough career to extrapolate other than Cliff Lee?

by kevinkinsler on Nov 9, 2010 7:22 PM CST reply actions

Pitchers are so erratic that I mostly do starters that are a bit established. The attrition rates of pitchers are so high that the relatively low expectation for win totals for young starters make people sad and make those people cause me to have a headache!

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN,Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Nov 9, 2010 7:35 PM CST up reply actions

thanks!

just about exactly what I expected to hear.

by kevinkinsler on Nov 9, 2010 7:39 PM CST up reply actions

Question...

any reason Eric Hurley’s numbers aren’t projected (is it becasue he hasn’t pitched in the last two years)? Curious to see how his numbers compares to Hunter.

by coolaid on Nov 9, 2010 8:17 PM CST up reply actions