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Tomorrow Never Knows: The Present Value of Prospects and Why the Rangers Can Afford to Trade From Depth

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While certainly a top 10 system in all of baseball, the Rangers can no longer brag that their collection of talent resides in the rarified air of the top tier. Thanks in part to the graduations of Neftali Feliz and Mitch Moreland, the trading of Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Blake Beavan, Michael Main, and Omar Poveda, the rapid decline of former prospects Kasey Kiker and Danny Gutierrez, and the developmental hurdles encountered by top prospects Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers, the overall ranking of the Texas farm has taken a hit, and the makeup of the system has shifted (somewhat) from high-impact talent to depth. That’s not to say that the minor league system is void of high-impact talent; rather, the farm’s value is more directly tied to depth than in previous years.

Let’s take a closer look at what the Rangers currently have on the farm and assign a basic trade value to each prospect (trade value based on a big ticket return like Greinke, Johnson, etc). I’ll group the players into tiers based on their present value, and give you some brief scouting breakdowns like potential impact, attributes, and red flags. After we’ve established value for the farm, I’ll make a case for why trading prospects for proven major league talent makes sense for the Rangers at the present, and how that could affect the shape of the system in the future.


Tier #1

LHP Martin Perez

Potential impact: Quality #2 starter on a first-division team.

Present value: Top 25 prospect in baseball; primary piece in a trade.

Attributes: Short athletic pitcher with compact delivery, above-average command projection, and three pitches with plus potential. At present, his fastball can sit 92-96 with good lefty movement; his curveball flashes plus at times, and projects to be a 60 grade pitch at maturity; his changeup plays well off his fastball with great shape and tumble, and projects to be above-average with a chance to be well-above-average at peak.

Potential red flags: Lacks physical projection; struggled with command and consistency in 2010; saw fastball velocity ebb and flow during season; the unknowns associated with present age.

Comment 112 comments  |  8 recs  | 

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Don't listen to me. I'm a fucking moron.

by hornedfrogs45 on Dec 18, 2010 2:38 AM CST reply actions  

Good read

"By MLB.TV, we can see J. Hamilton's homer, M. Young's clutch, and N. Feliz's explosive. All about Rangers things can be our interest"
--South Korean Rangers fan

Rangers Fan Radio

by Conjunction on Dec 18, 2010 4:27 AM CST reply actions  

This article is the sex, Proffesor.

Even if you did accidentally say that Mike Olt was/is/will ever be good at baseball…

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 18, 2010 5:08 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

Ten human-dollars says he tried to a hate on me but instead he accidentally struck out 5 times.

I really dislike everything about him.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 27, 2010 10:21 PM CST up reply actions  

He's a really good prospect

Legit. Other teams are high on him as well. Pus power potential and a slick glove at 3B? Yes.

by jparks77 on Dec 27, 2010 11:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Pus power potential?

He’s not that bad.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Dec 27, 2010 11:31 PM CST up reply actions  

haha

Well, “pus [sic]” power potential should be called “Arias” power potential. Olt has plus power potential, but the potential to be a puss is always present.

by jparks77 on Dec 27, 2010 11:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Mike Olt forgives you for implying that he could be a puss.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 27, 2010 11:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Jason Parks is beloved by pusses everywhere for the various pleasurable-as-butt-shit acts he's bestowed upon them, so coming from him it was actually a compliment.

But of course Mike Olt missed that.

Fucking fucktard whiffs on everything.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 27, 2010 11:59 PM CST up reply actions  

whiffs

I think you’re referring to Tommy Mendonkey-Dick.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Dec 28, 2010 12:18 AM CST up reply actions  

So...Joe Wieland is Tommy Hunter?

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Dec 18, 2010 7:28 AM CST reply actions  

Less fried chicken and more hair, though

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Did you call the hypothetical hardware store and buy a theoretical chain saw?

by Keynes on Dec 18, 2010 10:15 AM CST up reply actions  

Wieland

At peak, could present a better all-around arsenal than Hunter. Very abstract at this point. Hunter isn’t a guy I wanted taking the ball in a post-season game, but he is a valuable commodity. Wieland should be so lucky to achieve Hunter’s current level of success.

by jparks77 on Dec 25, 2010 3:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Merry Christmas.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Dec 28, 2010 8:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Great stuff.

Required reading for anybody thinking about throwing out a half-baked trade proposal for the flavor of the day.

"...I'd rather play with little men..." - LSJ, 12/16/2010

by Past A Diving Michael Young on Dec 18, 2010 8:16 AM CST reply actions  

Yes it was.

"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW

by Rodney on Dec 18, 2010 8:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Great job of taking stock of the farm system.

I can’t wait to hear what depth you think the Rangers should trade from. They have lots of pitchers in all tiers. They have up-the-middle talent only in the second and third tier, and, really, their depth of up-the-middle talent goes one prospect deep.

My guess: you’re punch line is to offer one tier 1, one up-the-middle tier 2, and load up on tier 3 pitching prospects.

If that’s the case, then I agree with the notion that the Rangers should trade for Greinke.

But, as I posted on BBTIA, high-end talent is the hardest thing to find, and the Rangers can’t sustain their success through the FA Market. To drain the system of ALL of its tier 1 and tier 2 talent, as some folks have suggested the Rangers should, would make that a much more likely reality, and make sustaining their success beyond the next 2 years a much smaller reality.

For example, Perez+Scheppers or Perez+Holland, seems to me to be too much, when considering that the Rangers will have to rely on that type of player to be successful in the 3-5 year window.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 18, 2010 9:23 AM CST reply actions  

Don't we need

to have some guys ready to succeed Hammy and Cruz and C.J. etc. after they leave in a few years (assuming we’ve extended their contracts)? If we drain our system of top-end prospects we’ll end up with no choice but to turn to FA’s instead to patch those holes. Seems like we have a 3-5 year window while Hammy, Cruz, etc. are in their primes, etc. but we could keep it open for a lot longer after that if we have a Beltre, Perez, etc. ready to keep the ball rolling after those guys are gone.

"I bent my wookie!" - Ralph Wiggum

by stupidsexyflanders on Dec 18, 2010 10:34 AM CST up reply actions  

The question is whether the prospects you're talking about can keep the ball rolling.

You’re assuming, for example, that Beltre will develop into a successor to Hamilton or Cruz.

Perez being able to match Wilson’s performance is a much safer bet, but if Perez’s ceiling (like Wilson’s) is as a first-division, number-two starting pitcher, don’t the Rangers still have something of a concern about who fronts the rotation, going forward?

I don’t know what Parks will write in the second part, but I’m willing to bet it’s a evaluation of the Rangers’ ability to win championships with the current roster, after filling holes via trading prospects for MLB players, versus their ability to win in the future, assuming even the best possible development of the prospects currently in the system.

One question, for me, is what sorts of trades/free-agent signings the Rangers will be able to pull off in the future, should those prospects actually develop ideally.

by Josh Garoon on Dec 18, 2010 10:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Do we really have anyone on the farm

who projects to be a big power guy, other than Davis to succeed Hamilton or Cruz? I mean, when you are getting to the point where Mike Olt is one of your guys with the best power potentials, you are a little light in that department.

Certainly there isn’t a lot to suggest Beltre has that kind of power.

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 18, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think the Rangers have any prospects like that,

who could be expected to perform in the majors at Hamilton/Cruz levels by 2014, no.

Then again, projecting any prospect to perform at those levels… you’d be talking a top prospect in baseball. So.

by Josh Garoon on Dec 18, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions  

Montero and... Harper?

I can’t think of anyone else, off top head.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Did you call the hypothetical hardware store and buy a theoretical chain saw?

by Keynes on Dec 18, 2010 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Hosmer

wants you to notice his .614 slg and his .431 wOBA in AA at age 20.

by tricer on Dec 18, 2010 12:25 PM CST up reply actions  

The royals could be really scary in a few years

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Dec 18, 2010 12:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Myers

I think I like his offensive skill-set more than Hosmer and Moustakas. He could be scary. Not as much value (RF), but ridiculously advanced approach with power potential and a promising hit tool. I love the guy.

by jparks77 on Dec 25, 2010 3:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Is he permanently off catcher, then?

Was he a lost cause there, or was the bat so far ahead of the glove they kinda had to?

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 27, 2010 10:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I think he's a RF

His mature bat is forcing a rushed defensive development behind the plate. You can’t rush catchers, so I think he will push to RF in the next year. He could be major league ready by 2012. It would take several years to develop him as a catcher, and even then its not a given he would give you a solid-average ceiling. Let the bat develop on schedule and move him to RF. His bat will be well above-average at peak, assuming he hits his ceiling.

by jparks77 on Dec 27, 2010 11:26 PM CST up reply actions  

So you wanna Josh Willingham this little Buster Posey, eh?

Interesting…

I love Myers, but it hurts watching him mature into a water buffalo sex object right in front of our eyes, as I added his scent to my genital ointment shortly before that draft and was really hoping we’d take him… but we’re cheap and stupid and ugly and unwilling to pleasure ladies (or draft picks wishing to be compensated fairly), so of course we didn’t fucking get him… which makes me so very fucking angry all of the time when I think about it.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 27, 2010 11:56 PM CST up reply actions  

He doesn't have Posey's defensive skill-set

On offense, he’s a monster. On defense, its not going to happen.

by jparks77 on Dec 28, 2010 12:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Carlos Delgado not going to happen, Max Ramirez not going to happen, or Mike Piazza not going to happen?

Like, how “not going to happen” are we talking about here?

I’m like a slut who grew up drinking lake-water and eating saltines out of a fucking canister of some sort when it comes to the idea of a slugging catcher… If a guy’s got a glimmer of a sliver of a chance to stick I almost always advocate for him to be given every opportunity to develop behind the dish.

Also, as a hipster, how often do you wear jeggings?

I find the fact that this product is worn to be quite disconcerting.

I’m guessing you wear them a lot.

Why?

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2010 12:12 AM CST up reply actions  

I've never worn them. I thought they were for girls.

Re: Myers

From a scout:
“I saw him six times last year and it wasn’t pretty. He is athletic, but his footwork is off and he isn’t in sync with the pitcher. He looks like a guy waiting to play RF.”

I think the Royals would be smart to continue to develop him as a catcher (more value), but his bat will eventually push him up the ladder, and when the defense won’t play behind the plate, he will move to RF.

If you want to keep him at the position, you have to keep a high-impact bat in the minors for several additional seasons in order to maximize his overall value. I doubt the Royals will be that patient. I wouldn’t be.

by jparks77 on Dec 28, 2010 12:19 AM CST up reply actions  

Fair enough.

I guess I can afford to be patient due to the fact that it ain’t my job on the line if the big club doesn’t win.

Walking that line between developing prospects the way you truly want to and developing them in the way most likely to prevent you from getting fired so hard you accidentally slam your penis in a car door has gotta be one of the toughest things about working for a big league club.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2010 12:28 AM CST up reply actions  

Royals are under the 'scope

I mean, how can they fuck this up? With Moustakas, Hosmer, Myers, Montgomery, Lamb, and Duffy, representing high-impact potential close to the major league level, not the mention their recent acquisitions, the Royals (on paper), should be ready to compete at the major league level as soon as 2012. If they fuck this up, man, that would be historic. This is the best system I’ve seen in a long, long, long time.

by jparks77 on Dec 28, 2010 12:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Dayton. Moore. Will. Find. A. Way.

Of this there can be no doubt.

Or, well… His fail at least casts some shadow on the thing he’s got going there, imo.

But, yah, their system is to potential dynasty what you undressing is to females about to experience true pleasure for the first time.

So many of my favorite “I hope the Rangers get this fucking mother fucker” ended up with the Royals.

Handsome Hosmer and Myers chief among them, naturally.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2010 1:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Hosmer

Is so good. Seriously. Superstar level bat. 40+HR bat with good contact and a good glove at 1B (although, he has the athleticism to play a corner).

And…I actually like Myers more. Some like Moose more. It’s crazy how good those three can be.

by jparks77 on Dec 28, 2010 1:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Did they ever figure out what the fuck was wrong with Handsome his first year?

Was it really the vision/eye-surgery thing?

My money was on hobo-AIDS…

Granted the vision thing sounds more plausible, but I’m kinda rooting against it cause FUCK do I hate those Spring Training articles we get inundated with every spring about how “player X has done thing Y and has reported to camp completely fixed and ready to show what he’s truly capable of!”

Oh, really, Mr. Newspaper fucking Writer-Guy?

Is he in the best shape of his life, too?

Has he perhaps taken up kickboxing and/or yoga!?

Well, gollee-gee, I find that very interesting in a sex-way, too!!!

Ugh…

And if it really was the eye thing then I might have to start maybe putting some stock in those damn things, and probably I’ll kill myself, no doubt leaving behind a very snarky suicide note that will make probably only about 5% sense.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2010 1:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Eye and hand. Legit

He was 100% in 2010. The results speak for themselves: Total: .338/.406/.571

by jparks77 on Dec 28, 2010 1:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Damn.

Yah, he’s a sex-creature.

I love him and his Maurice London-esque unibrow.

Sigh…

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2010 1:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Not that I wish suicide on you, but I figure your suicide note would be a think of bizarre, mystical awesomeness

Like, they’d have an internet correspondence course on suicide notes that uses yours as a template on how to properly write one.

THE RANGERS ARE FULL OF UNBELIEVEABLE SUCK GIVE UP NOW IT DOES NOT MATTER GOOD BYE.

"It has been said that baseball is to the United States what revolutions are to Latin America, a safety valve for letting off steam. I think baseball is more serious than any Latin American revolution. But, then, I am a serious fan." -- George F. Will

by WestTxAg06 on Dec 28, 2010 8:25 AM CST up reply actions  

i imagine lots of word salad.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Dec 28, 2010 8:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Stop imagining lots of word salad.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2010 9:36 AM CST up reply actions  

They've done a pretty nice job fucking up Alex Gordon.

I really want to see a Rangers-Royals ALCS, so I’m not rooting against the Royals by any means.

But, I mean there is Alex Gordon, then there are all those guys that are “winning” players that Moore likes: FA signings like Kyle Farnsworth, Jose Guillen, Jeff Francxfsfsdf, and trades like Mike Jacobs, Yunieski, Coco Crisp.

But, they do accidentally get guys like Mike Aviles and Joakim Soria from their farm system. And they did develop Billy Butler.

So, you never know. It could actually happen that in 2013 the Rangers and Royals could be in the playoff.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 28, 2010 8:34 AM CST up reply actions  

They didn't develop Joakim, they Rule 5'd him from the moron Padres

But still, yeah, he’s an excellent closer. And has the best nickname in all of baseball.

THE RANGERS ARE FULL OF UNBELIEVEABLE SUCK GIVE UP NOW IT DOES NOT MATTER GOOD BYE.

"It has been said that baseball is to the United States what revolutions are to Latin America, a safety valve for letting off steam. I think baseball is more serious than any Latin American revolution. But, then, I am a serious fan." -- George F. Will

by WestTxAg06 on Dec 28, 2010 8:54 AM CST up reply actions  

oh yeah.

Moore is such a frustrating GM. He does smart stuff like this, then all of the other stuff like Farnsworth.

Maybe he’s a victim of his circumstance. Maybe he’d make better FA decisions if he could go after high-dollar guys.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 28, 2010 9:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Is it a minority of scouts now who think Escobar will hit?

I have a hard time finding informed opinions about him online, now that he’s a ML player rather than a prospect.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 28, 2010 9:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Hosmer

I’d take his future over Montero, and I think Montero is going to be a star. Hosmer is the best power bat in the minors. Harper can match his power potential, but Hosmer has the better bat.

I think KC has a chance to be very good for a very long time. The Greinke return will only add to their already ridiculous collection of talent. If they can acquire a few major league ready pieces now, 2012 might just be the year they start to touch the surface of their potential.

by jparks77 on Dec 18, 2010 12:41 PM CST up reply actions  

So, to repeat my Scheppers question over here...

If this past year Scheppers had showed a 50 changeup and better ability to pitch low, would that have bumped his projection from late inning guy to good #2?

I"m trying to get a feel for people’s opinion on his age/injury discount.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 18, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I would be more worried about durability

He seemed to tire towards the end of the year and became less effective.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Dec 18, 2010 1:15 PM CST up reply actions  

He hadn't pitched much in about 2 years

It should have been expected he would tire some

by bigsteve on Dec 18, 2010 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

that aside, he has big durability red flags

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Dec 18, 2010 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I prefer Scheppers in the pen

Because I want to maximize his arsenal. If the CU does in fact reach a sustainable 50, and he continues to work on pacing and sequence, etc, and the FB and CB remain well-above average pitches, I think he would easily profile as a #2 in a rotation.

by jparks77 on Dec 18, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

I can't help but continually fall back into the "Jon Papelbon minus 100% of the doucheface"-comp with the Scheppard.

Joba as well, but he’s fat, and you can’t compare fatties to non-fatties or the government will send a painful tax at you I hear.

Basically a guy where it’s always gonna be tempting to try him in the rotation cause the results if he were to “get it” would be so fantastic, but I just don’t know if it’s in the cards and perhaps we’d all just be best served in sitting back and giving eachother sexual high-fives as he mows down hitting-sluts as sort of modern day gun-slinging terror-clown out of the ’pen.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 18, 2010 10:39 PM CST up reply actions  

"modern day gun-slinging terror-clown out of the ’pen"

I’m going to send this description to scouts and FO personnel. It needs to make the rounds.

by jparks77 on Dec 18, 2010 10:58 PM CST up reply actions  

See that you do, Professor.

See.

That.

You.

Do.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 19, 2010 3:31 AM CST up reply actions  

He do what he do.

It goes deeper. People take out their frustrations with Josey on their real-life acquaintances, which propagates forward, and before you know it you’ve got more marriages in an easily-smashable state.
by Closure GT on Dec 14, 2010 9:48 AM CST

by RangersSD on Dec 20, 2010 8:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Huh?

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2010 12:29 AM CST up reply actions  

also Mike Trout

probably a decent approximation for what Hamilton could have been. He might end up with plus power, plus hitting, and plus defense in CF.

by tricer on Dec 18, 2010 1:07 PM CST up reply actions  

i hate angels prospects

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Dec 18, 2010 3:49 PM CST up reply actions  

We don't really have that many

who look like they are going to be significantly above average in terms of power that I see.

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 18, 2010 11:41 AM CST up reply actions  

It will be great to see some ways to make this thought process more precise.

Playing with scenarios is quite fun.

What do we think the typical return on a low, first round pick might be in 2011, 2012?

Seems like for adding to the team in 2013-2015 via the draft, the most certain thing that can be had at that point might be an impact bullpen arm. HS players that fall in 2011 and 2012 because of signability are still unlikely to be ready by 2015. The best we can all hope is that either 2011 or 2012 will look like 2007 when the Rangers got a 4th OF (but one that is a credible CFer) and 5th SP.

So, really, if the Rangers don’t have impact players on the farm now, they don’t have much of a chance of graduating impact players in the 2013-2015 period. It’s not a zero chance, but the odds are longer than for a stacked system like the Royals.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 18, 2010 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

I think I should have a bit mor time over the holidays to write about stuff like this.

The depth-and-ceiling take on farm systems is interesting, to me. When Newberg writes that the Rangers have “one of the game’s richest farm systems,” for example, I wonder if his readers are able to contextualize that. It doesn’t strike me as a top 3 (or even top 5) system, at this point, and even if it there are folks who’d put it up in those reaches, it’d only be because of depth.

That’s much different than, for instance, the Yankees’ current minor-league situation.

by Josh Garoon on Dec 18, 2010 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Would you rather have depth

or 2 really high impact prospects, and not much else?

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 18, 2010 12:32 PM CST up reply actions  

No, not really referencing the Yankees

just a pure hypothetical.

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 18, 2010 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Ah, OK.

That’s a tough decision, and I think I’d have to know the context: in other words, what’s the major-league club’s situation (roster, payroll flexibility, etc.)?

by Josh Garoon on Dec 18, 2010 2:37 PM CST up reply actions  

I've seen too many guys

who are touted as depth become Joaquin Arias. I definitely would rather have a small number of impact guys.

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 19, 2010 1:59 PM CST up reply actions  

The Yankees system demonstrates the problem with the age baseball is entering.

They have the resources to beat teams in the international amateur market as well as the FA market. Red Sox fall in the same category, maybe Dodgers.

Those three teams really are the only three teams that can tap into multiple avenues for sustaining success.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 18, 2010 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know that the cost to entry for the international amatuer market is prohibitive to less-than-huge market teams

If those teams allocate their funds correctly.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Did you call the hypothetical hardware store and buy a theoretical chain saw?

by Keynes on Dec 18, 2010 2:57 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah. It's no longer a "market inefficiency".

The thinking that was articulated often by the large market clubs in the past was that prospects weren’t all that important to them because they wanted immediate return to be competitive.

But, now, to be competitive in the trade market, and maybe even to help keep payroll somewhat down by offsetting the old-guy salaries, large market teams seem highly interested in snapping up high-ceiling prospects, at least compared to 10 years ago.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 18, 2010 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

If your farm system only has two really high impact prospects, you better have depth.

I think the idea of 2 high impact prospects versus depth is a wash. Neither will get a team very far, unless they can spend heavily in the FA market.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 18, 2010 1:16 PM CST up reply actions  

When I say

really high impact prospects, I’m talking top 10 types. The kind we have zero of at the moment.

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 18, 2010 1:24 PM CST up reply actions  

A couple of prospects have the potential to be top 10 sometime in the next 3 years.

Alfaro, for one, maybe David Perez.

If all goes perfect, Martin could be a top 5 by the end of the year.

But, yeah, the Rangers don’t have a consensus top 10.

Still, it appears from the past 10 years that neither system depth without top 10 prospects nor a system with only, say, Strasburg and Harper, will do much for creating a window of post season expectation at the ML level.

I’d prefer the second, though, because should the top 10 guys develop into MLers, they could be traded for a slew of high-end prospects.

Godspeed Mike Olt.

by rooster on Dec 18, 2010 1:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Well yeah

obviously you’d rather have top end guys, and depth, but that isn’t a good hypothetical.

I think if I had to choose, I’d agree with you and take the impact guys without depth.

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 18, 2010 1:44 PM CST up reply actions  

2 really high impact guys, no matter the big league club's situation

"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34

Hey Arod. You're fucking out. And we're fucking in.

"Don't argue with an idiot (JW); people watching may not be able to tell
the difference."

by Brian Thomas on Dec 20, 2010 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

waitwaitwait... faux hawks are a plus for you?

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Did you call the hypothetical hardware store and buy a theoretical chain saw?

by Keynes on Dec 18, 2010 10:16 AM CST reply actions  

He's a hipster like that

THE RANGERS ARE FULL OF UNBELIEVEABLE SUCK GIVE UP NOW IT DOES NOT MATTER GOOD BYE.

"It has been said that baseball is to the United States what revolutions are to Latin America, a safety valve for letting off steam. I think baseball is more serious than any Latin American revolution. But, then, I am a serious fan." -- George F. Will

by WestTxAg06 on Dec 18, 2010 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

Somewhere Future Pantaloons is growing one to gain on his hipster cred.

It goes deeper. People take out their frustrations with Josey on their real-life acquaintances, which propagates forward, and before you know it you’ve got more marriages in an easily-smashable state.
by Closure GT on Dec 14, 2010 9:48 AM CST

by RangersSD on Dec 18, 2010 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

It was a joke

Beltre spends a lot of time focusing on his appearance. It’s more advanced than his approach at the plate.

by jparks77 on Dec 18, 2010 12:01 PM CST up reply actions  

So he is the perfect hipster

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Dec 18, 2010 12:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Then again, if his style wasn't more advanced than his approach

He’d basically be wearing a potato sack and a beard with sticks and leaves in it.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Did you call the hypothetical hardware store and buy a theoretical chain saw?

by Keynes on Dec 18, 2010 2:45 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Could Buckle make himself into a Top 100 level prospect this year?

Or is that setting the bar too high?

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Did you call the hypothetical hardware store and buy a theoretical chain saw?

by Keynes on Dec 18, 2010 2:48 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Who?

"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW

by Rodney on Dec 18, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions  

I vote Monday

Great post title, btw. One of my top 5 favorite Beatles recordings.

This is one of my favorite Beatles’ covers of any of their songs.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Dec 19, 2010 7:33 PM CST up reply actions  

actually that whole 801 Live album

is pretty durned cool.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Dec 19, 2010 7:34 PM CST up reply actions  

You liked something the Beatles did? I'm shocked, shocked I tell ya.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 19, 2010 8:10 PM CST up reply actions  

801 Live isn't a Beatles album

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Dec 19, 2010 10:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Ahh, sorry. Obviously I'm not much of a Beatles guy.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 20, 2010 12:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Gracias

I’m a sucker for a good Ringo malapropism.

by jparks77 on Dec 20, 2010 2:00 AM CST up reply actions  

It's pretty tough to take an objective look

at our major league team, and our farm, and not agree with:

My answers to the above questions don’t exactly fill me with confidence going into the 2011 season, much less the next decade. The Rangers, as they are presently constructed, have an expiration date; sometime in the next three seasons.

"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington

by DJCahill on Dec 20, 2010 4:30 PM CST up reply actions  

A lot can change over 3 years.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 20, 2010 11:29 PM CST up reply actions  

MIchael Young will be here forever.

Life hates me.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 21, 2010 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Feed on the hate.

Become who you were born to be.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

by Aqua on Dec 21, 2010 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

you left out

…it is your destiny.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Dec 21, 2010 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I like you.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Dec 24, 2010 11:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I thought we were beard enemies?

I’m happy that we aren’t.

Unless we are… in which case please ignore that sentence, as it wouldn’t make sense.

The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)

by thedirkatron on Dec 27, 2010 10:25 PM CST up reply actions  

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