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Greinke, Garza, Nolasco: A Quick Overview


Alright fellas, with all the names coming off the market and a decision expected from Cliff Lee! by the weekend, let's look at our options potentially on the trade market. In this, I will post stats from the past 2 seasons (without the W-L record, which most see here as irrelevant), along with packages that are the expected asking price for each.And let's not forget Age and Contract situation.

 

First, there's the fan favorite Zack Greinke. I say fan favorite because a) he is always talked about in Ranger trade rumors and b) he is a legitimate TORP. Let's take a look at his stats from 2009 and 2010.

 

Zack Greinke, 27, owed 27 mil over the next 2 years.

2009: 33 GS, 229.1 IP, 9.5 K/9, 2 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, .313 BABIP, 79.3% LOB %, 40% GB %, 4.5 HR/FB, 2.16 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 3.15 xFIP, 9.4 WAR.

2010: 33 GS, 220 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 0.74 HR/9, .314 BABIP, 65.3% LOB %, 46% GB %, 7.5% HR/FB, 4.17 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 5.2 WAR

 

Ok, looking at this, he had a down year last year. Yet the asking price has only gone up. The current asking price appears to be 3 out of Holland, Perez, Profar, Beltre, and that's the starting point. For me, it's too rich, but that's just me.

 

On to Matt Garza, who could be on the market for the right price. Problem is, it appears the Rays want more for Garza than he's probably worth. Let's look at his stats.

 

Matt Garza, 27, COT's does not show his contract info beyond 2010.

2009: 32 GS, 203 IP, 8.38 K.9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, .284 BABIP, 75% LOB %, 39.7% GB %, 10.2% HR/FB, 3.95 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 3.2 WAR

2010: 32 GS, 204.2 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, .279 BABIP, 75.5% LOB %, 35.8% GB %, 10% HR/FB, 3.91 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, 1.8 WAR.

 

The price on Garza is still steep, despite clearly being a few steps below Greinke. Evan Grant, love him or hate him, which for the most part it seems to be we hate his baseball perspective, says the price would be Holland, Borbon, and Profar. Really? Way too much IMO. But, you make the call.

 

Now on to Ricky Nolasco. People on here have said he's another Colby Lewis in terms of quality. Not sure what the asking price is on him, so I'll shoot high (and probably be shot for it).

 

Ricky Nolasco, 28, again COT's does not show his contract past 2010.

2009: 31 GS, 185 IP, 9.49 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, .336 BABIP, 61% LOB %, 38.3% GB %, 11% HR/FB, 5.06 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 4.3 WAR

2010: 26 GS, 157.2 IP, 8.39 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9, .328 BABIP, 71.6% LOB %, 40% GB %, 12.4% HR/FB, 4.51 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 2.5 WAR

 

Based on WAR and other peripherals, I'd say that Holland, Borbon, Profar is about right for Nolasco, but that could be high. Maybe Schep, Profar, Hunter sounds better.

 

Based on what you see here, I would think Nolasco is the best option if you feel you need to trade for starting pitching. So, now that you are armed with the stats for 2 years of each of them, debate, and vote in the poll please.

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