Thanks for the email. You're right, I don't fully trust these metrics. While my background is scouting, I really look to the advanced stats a lot for certain things. I just think the defensive ones are flawed. There's always debate but quite often there are clear cut problems with these stats. Cruz, to me, is a solid defender. He throws well, and he's athletic. Is he a top defensive corner outfielder? No, he isn't. And, I feel pretty comfortable saying that. I see him as an adequate defender, but not among the league's best by any means. I'm sure there would be others that think less of him than I do, and some more. But I really do not see him as an above average defender, at least yet.
Frankie Piliere responding to an email I wrote him this morning regarding Nelson Cruz' defense. I specifically asked his view of Cruz' defense from a scouts point of view as oppose to some of the advanced defensive metrics that can be found.
over 2 years ago
octoberty
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UZR
I think fangraphs recently had an article that said you really need about 3 years of data before you can bank on most fielding stats, including UZR. Even over a full season there is statistical noise, luck, etc. Piliere nailed it when he said Cruz is a good defender but not a top glove out there. That’s what he looks like.
People going on about his terrible defense and bad routes are overstating the effect his occasionally goofy-looking play actually has on the outcome. But you also can’t just point to UZR and say he’s awesome no matter what he looks like.
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Glad I could help
I agree about longer stretches of date helping make these more accurate. Until the day there’s a way to account for every unique play that happens on defense, however, it can’t be 100%. There’s just so many variables.
And….accessibility is my middle name ;)
- Frankie Piliere
http://twitter.com/FrankiePiliere
"I just think the defensive ones are flawed."
Going out on a limb there.
Every stat is flawed. So is anecdotal opinion. What’s the point here?
Very flawed then
Stats still in general lie less than the eyes can, but I just think it’s up to the individual to be able to pick out clear problems. I think we all have enough common sense to see clear problems with how these stats grade certain players.
The defensive stats are, I think, even more specific than offensive statistics for example. They are supposedly telling us just good a defensive player someone is. And, there are so many variables involved that it’s unfair to use them as gospel as some do.
That’s the point here. They aren’t useless, but some people like to use them as definitive evidence for judging a player’s defense, and sometimes the flaws are clear enough to see with our eyes.
Not trying to make some grand statement here. I just personally think defensive stats are more flawed than others because they claim to tell us things like how good a player’s range is, and many people than cite that as evidence. And let’s be honest, we know these players. Sometimes you can spot definitive flaws.
That is more so than any other stats. Batting average, for instance, we know is flawed, as are others but there are lots of ways we can measure offense. I think there is a pretty firm grasp on pitching and offense. I don’t think there is nearly the grasp on defensive metrics. That’s all I’m saying.
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