BP Division Preview-Guess Who Finishes First...and Last
by Rodney on Feb 19, 2010 7:47 PM CST
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PrintTexas Rangers
Projected record: 87-75
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Seattle Mariners
Projected record: 83-79
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Projected record: ???
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Projected record: 76-86
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Player Who Could Surprise: Colby Lewis returns stateside after spending the past two seasons pitching in Japan. PECOTA believes the time abroad has helped the Rangers' first-round draft pick from 1999—it projects Lewis to post a fine 3.84 ERA in 165 innings.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Scott Feldman seemingly came out of nowhere to lead the team with 17 victories last season. PECOTA doesn't see a repeat, forecasting a 9-9 record and 4.78 ERA in 157 innings.
More here.
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" forecasting a 9-9 record and 4.78 ERA in 157 innings"
Don’t really see how Feldman is only going to win just over half of the games he won last season….he’s better than that. 17 wins again in 2010 might be pushing it but I can see him winning 14-15 games…
The prospect of LA finishing last is delicious….
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Feb 19, 2010 9:33 PM CST reply actions
Wins for SP's are kinda meaningless
Bookmark that.
Seriously, I don’t know why folks get so wrapped up in predicting X amount of wins for starting pitchers.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
"Factory Girl" from the Glimmer Twins?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Yes sir.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
They were very good to that point
but the road to greatness was paved by Beggar’s Banquet.
Loves me some Stray Cat Blues, No Expectations and can only wonder what Sympathy For The Devil sounded like it ’68.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Feb 22, 2010 10:39 PM CST up reply actions
Beggar's Banquet is my favorite
Have you seen ‘Rock n Roll Circus’? Love seeing ‘Sympathy’ fresh, feels like it’s new.
‘Parachute Woman’, ‘Jigsaw Puzzle’, and I really dig their take on ‘Prodigal Son’. That album is so good, ‘Street Fightin’ Man’ seems like the weakest cut to me.
Bluesy, countrified rock n roll at it’s finest.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
All great songs.
It was as if they spent ’63-68 figuring out who they were and what they could do best while writing & singing a bunch of good songs but truly got serious with BB.
From ’68-76, there was nobody better – thank you, Mick Taylor. Maybe he as just in the right place at the right time but the Stones were the perfect band for his talents.
One of their very underrated favorites on a night like this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOypYEvZ9Q0
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Feb 22, 2010 11:16 PM CST up reply actions
Love it.
‘Goat Head’s Soup’ is underrated b/c it’s surrounded by so much greatness.
‘Waiting on a Friend’ was actually an outtake from that album that came out what?, 7-8 years later. I believe Taylor is the guitar on it.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Per Waiting on a Friend...
Didn’t they record a bunch of songs in Jamaica or some island in the Caribbean from ’73-76 and used several on later albums?
I thought Worried About You (which sounds awesome live) was one of those tracks and later released on Tattoo You.
I haven’t listened to “Winter” in a while but listened to it just now 5 times in a row.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on Feb 23, 2010 12:15 AM CST up reply actions
Yep, and the Netherlands
using a bunch of different guitarists. They tried out Beck and Frampton among others. Jamaica had to be where ‘Hey Negrita’ came from.
Mick and Keef love money, they oughta release all those outtakes.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
I'm infatuated
with the super group perfomance of Lennon’s Yer Blues in the Circus.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Oh shit,
that was awesome. Lennon, Clapton, Keef, I can’t picture the other players. What a great show. Taj Mahal really brings it. I had it saved on my TIVO forever, stupidly erased it.
PBS ran it, haven’t seen it listed since.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Mitch Mitchell
is the drummer, from Hendrix Ex.
It’s on youtube, just search for Yer Blues. Not sure how much of the rest of the show is on there.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
lol you guys are such fucking baseball stat snobs
Get off your fucking negative horse, and go on with your life. If I want to have fun, and predict wins, then I can. I am not going to breakdown all his fucking stats because I am just making a fun quick random prediction. I’m not trying to be a baseball analysts.
Half of you guys have baseball bats shoved so far up your ass that you can’t enjoy half of the stuff that makes baseball so great.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
by iorange555 on Feb 20, 2010 7:51 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe we just don't think predicting wins is any fun.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
and that's fine.
I happen to enjoy it. So the fact that you reply, and philkid talking about how wins are useless, and it’s meaningless doesn’t make any sense. I didn’t say anything about their importance. I wasn’t breaking down any stat. I was just stating something I thought for the fun of it.
So the fact that people have to reply to it with this shit just proves you want to be a fucking snobby asshole.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
Well...
To me it’s really more about wanting to educate other people so they can be smart like us as well.
I think sneering back at someone simply trying to make you smarter with a “I’m dumb and I’m enjoying it, why aren’t you” attitude is far more snobby, myself.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
....
are you serious right now, jon? I have been on here for two years now I have heard, and read why wins are meaningless plenty of times. Predicting wins does not make me, or anyone else dumb. I was simply just throwing something out there. Because if he does end up with 16 wins I will feel pretty good in predicting that then.
I didn’t say “He’s going to 16 wins cause they are the most important stat ever!” I never once said wins are important. Lol, you are such a dick dude.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
My original point
Was that wins are pointless and so is predicting them. And it wasn’t really directed at you, it was directed at GostofFocault’s original beef with PECOTA’s win projection for Feldman. You replied to him and I was replying to the entire subthread.
I don’t really know what your beef here is if you already know wins are kind of meaningless and you where just making an off-the-cuff comment. What are you defending here, your right to make meaningless comments? Because I really don’t think anyone needs permission for that…
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
It's not meaningless. I will feel good if my prediction is right.
I am defending it because it is obvious you were trying to sound smart, and act so godly.
It’d be like me coming around everytime you said someone was hot, and then i’d reply listing the reasons why you will never be able to get her, and she’d laugh in your face if you ever tried.
Pretty stupid, and assholey of me, huh? Because you were just saying she was hot. Not saying you had a chance with her.
Don’t be a dick all the time, and you’ll enjoy life more than you do now, jon.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
x
I am defending it because it is obvious you were trying to sound smart, and act so godly.
That’s not the case here. You’re mistaking philkid’s and my replies as being directed at you when they’re actually directed at what was said about PECOTA’s prediction for Feldman’s win totals.
No offense, but I’d say you’re the one acting like a dick here.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
You replied to my post
Saying “Wins are meaninglelss, bookmark that” I said bookmark that in my post, and you replied to my post. But you weren’t replying to it? I am confused, jon.
Philkid didn’t reply to mine, but he obviously included me “that goes for BP included” hinting there were stupid people before BP.
I am being a dick to you because you were to me whether you want to hop off the bat that’s up your ass and admit it, or not.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
Dude, you are blowing this waaay out of proportion.
If you’ll recall, I also said “Seriously, I don’t know why folks get so wrapped up in predicting X amount of wins for starting pitchers.”, therefore implying my play on your comment was just mild sarcasm and not an actual insult.
Apparently that went over your head, so my bad I guess… but I don’t know how you could possibly have taken philkid’s comment as an affront to you. You’re the one with the “bat up your ass”, finding excuses to say you’re being talked down at. Give it a freaking rest.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
I think it's obvious you were replying to me.
You called me dumb also, and you have implied several times that I am dumb in your replies. The last one being “apparently that went over your head”
If that’s not acting like you are superior to me….then I don’t know what is.
Go on with your godly self, jon.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
You're an NAACP lawyer in real life, aren't you?
Either that or you’re this guy.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
Why is Mark Teixeira fucking a pie?
"Jesus, Spanish- our jobs aren't enough, now you want our words?"
-- Sterling Archer
by RCCook on Feb 20, 2010 9:45 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
A-Rod and Jeter are taking all the pussy.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
by iorange555 on Feb 20, 2010 9:47 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Attaboy Cleets!
"Jurick Profar is tired of practice!! I wanna play I wanna play….waiting for march 12 to go to spring training! to kill some pichers:D:D I am Jurickson Profar son of judeska and chesmond.. And I was born ready! ready to play baseball!!" - Jurickson Profar
Come on...
I don’t like using wins for pitchers as much as you do, but did you really just say this :
To me it’s really more about wanting to educate other people so they can be smart like us as well.
You’ve been a baseball fan for what, 3 or 4 years now? You saying you’re trying to educate people does come off snobbish. Stop worrying about “educating” others and just worry about yourself. Give your opinion, but stop acting like it’s the one and only way to look at something.
I’m sure most of us have much we could still learn. Let’s not act like we have all the answers to the questions.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Feb 20, 2010 10:32 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I love it...
…someone who is reasonably gently pointing out that wins are on a old stat and don’t really matter as far as how a pitcher performed/will perform in a given year is being a snob. Why not talk about how many cycles Ian will get this year? Or around the park home runs Borbon will get? Sure they’re all sort of interesting to talk about for 5 minutes, but in the end, someone’s going to point out that they don’t really make a difference in determining how much a player will contribute this year.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea to try to elevate the level of statistics that are used around here to the more advanced and predictive ones. Because in the end, that’s what this is…are we going to use stats that don’t really mean much or stats that actually tell us how good someone is?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 20, 2010 10:41 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
All orange did...
was say Feldman was going to have 16 wins. In fact he admitted that wins are only a pretty stat, which is basically true. That should have been the end of the 5 minute conversation right there.
Assuming that he doesn’t know shit about stats or that he needs to be educated (and that you’re the one who needs to do it) is kinda snobbish imo.
Although I do think orange was out of line in his response to philkid as well.
I’m all for elevating the level of discussion and stats around here. But does that mean that whenever someone mentions wins or RBI’s that a 20 post diatribe is needed in order to educate that person? That’s going a bit too far imo. Unless those stats are removed from the game they will be mentioned from time to time. It’s not a big deal.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Seemed like BP was treating it as important.
The fact that you used it to launch in to a hilarious rant is awesome, though.
Also, it's not about wins and losses being meaningless this time.
It’s about them being subject to too many factors to be a reasonable stat for projecting. Someone could easily have as good as good a season as the year before and halve his wins. That wouldn’t make him disappointing.
But, please, continue to rant about how that’s what makes baseball great.
I'm more scared of the Mariners than the Angels.
"Jurick Profar is tired of practice!! I wanna play I wanna play….waiting for march 12 to go to spring training! to kill some pichers:D:D I am Jurickson Profar son of judeska and chesmond.. And I was born ready! ready to play baseball!!" - Jurickson Profar
But I think David Aardsma is going to blow up, Billy Koch-style.
"Jurick Profar is tired of practice!! I wanna play I wanna play….waiting for march 12 to go to spring training! to kill some pichers:D:D I am Jurickson Profar son of judeska and chesmond.. And I was born ready! ready to play baseball!!" - Jurickson Profar
Personally, I'm hoping for exploding clown style
If we get lucky, he’ll go boom while throwing a pitch to Kendry Morales and take him out too.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
Yeah, he could
High walk rate, .257 BABIP.
But Lowe and League are as good as Aardsma if not better, so even if he does melt down they will probably be okay.
But
Isn’t League similar to Aardsma? flamethrower with command issues?
"Jurick Profar is tired of practice!! I wanna play I wanna play….waiting for march 12 to go to spring training! to kill some pichers:D:D I am Jurickson Profar son of judeska and chesmond.. And I was born ready! ready to play baseball!!" - Jurickson Profar
Eh, not really
Last year he had a 2.53 BB/9, and he put up a 1.90 in 2006. It was 4.09 in 2008 and 5.40 in a limited sample size in 2007, but he fucked up his arm in 2007 (apparently lifted a few too many weights in the offseason) so I’m surmising 2007-8 was a bit of an aberration.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
I'm always leery of Billy Beane suddenly
having a young team with a ton of financial flexibility that can win 95 games.
He’s been in the laboratory for a while and I keep wondering when we’re going to see his latest version of Frankenstein.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
He's going to have
to find some offense somewhere. the last time the A’s had a decent offense they still had Eric Chavez. oh, wait….
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
i will eat my own poop
if the Angels only win 76 games
these projections are stupid
Promise?
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
I expected a link
promoting his Japanese porn site.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
No doubt
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
Don't think of it as a simple projection
Think of it as a distribution. What BP is saying is that based on the totality of projected runs scored and runs allowed for the individual players, the centerpoint of the distribution of wins for the Angels is only 76 wins. Now, first adjustment is that the Angels have outperformed their runs scored/allowed numbers by 10 wins or more each of the last 3 years, so there’s something there. secondly, it assumes that the Angels will have no roster turnover during the season (other than some internal options coming up).
Personally, I am still scared of the Angels, because if they are sitting at 5+games over .500 in late July, and are no worse than third in the division, they’ll make a move to get someone, be it a closer or a bopper for the stretch. The Angels are like the Yankees of the west, and won’t be satisfied to rebuild. they must win and win every year.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
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