Sunday a.m. Rangers things
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 28, 2010 8:57 AM CST
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PrintSpring training games just around the corner...
Rich Harden will start the team's first exhibition game, on Thursday, while Scott Feldman will start Friday's game, although Ron Washington says he hasn't decided which of the two will start Opening Day. My assumption would be that Harden would get the start -- they got him, after all, because he's supposed to be their top of the rotation #1 starter.
Anthony Andro writes that Feldman, meanwhlie, is aiming to show that last season wasn't a fluke.
Evan Grant writes that with several veteran leaders on last year's club departing this offseason, it is up to some of the young players currently here to take on a leadership role.
T.R. Sullivan has notes up on Matt Harrison, Luis Mendoza, and Ben Snyder. Sullivan says the Rangers like Snyder and want to keep him, and may try to work out a trade with the Giants so that they can option him. The problem with that, of course, is that he'd have to clear waivers for that to happen, and he's the type of pitcher than another team might want to claim on waivers and stash in their bullpen (much like Texas did with Darren O'Day last year).
Grant discusses Michael Young's career to date, who he compares to and what those players did in their mid- to late-30s.
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"Harden v Feldman"-Filed under...
“Things that Washington says that have little to no bearing on what will actually happen”
Don’t worry, the files have long name tags.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 28, 2010 9:03 AM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Yawn
Man, it’s a weird, yet encouraging feeling having all but the last bench spot or two on the team filled going into spring training.
The only downside is it makes for even more fluff articles from the media than we’ve ever seen before.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
I know they probably don't matter as much as I want them to,
but these sorts of comments from players make me happy:
Feldman said he needs to improve his strikeout to walk ratio.
Don't worry, I'm the same way.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Feb 28, 2010 9:25 AM CST up reply actions
Men's hockey, gold game: US vs. Canada 2:00 Ch. 5
Be there, or be a fucking Commie.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
50 years to the day...
We’ll be the underdog again, but when are we not? We’ve been the underdog in almost every game, yet somehow, we’re here and Russia, Sweeden, etc are not.
Let’s get it on!
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 28, 2010 9:51 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
and 30 years to date Ghetto if you count the Mircle on Ice
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
My logic center and heart are conflicted
Canada should roll us, but still, maybe a hot goalie and speed pulls it out for us.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
I don't think they should roll us.
They’re more skilled, but they aren’t better. They’re spineless, they played a perimeter game offensively against us last time sans the final 3 minutes, and we have the top goalie in the tournament.
Plus they haven’t seen the tweaked lineup with Kane playing with giants. I really like our chances.
Yes, but...
…they’ve gotten some physical goals in the crease from Morrow this past week.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 28, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
WHEN
There’s only one sport I give a damn about in the Winter Olympics: the one where they ski for a while, stop to shoot at stuff, ski some more, stop to shoot at more stuff, and so on. I don’t know what it’s called but I’d like to watch some of that today. It’s so bizarre.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
Bialthon
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
There is no more Bialthon events this olympics
there only doing 2 events besides the closing cermony
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 9:58 AM CST up reply actions
yeah I just looked that up.
Sucks I missed the whole damn thing.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 9:59 AM CST up reply actions
yeah, that's pretty fun
some guy is a minute ahead of the pack skiing and misses two of his targets on the last range and is out of the medals. Part of me says “how is this a sport” and then part of me says “these are survival skills in Scandinavia at their finest”
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Feb 28, 2010 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
hell yeah
It looks really weird, but then the more you think about it, if you’re unlucky those skills could actually come in very handy. It just doesn’t seem like something they’d put in the Olympics.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 10:03 AM CST up reply actions
That explain's why the gun looks so thin
and has a long barrow
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
oh sorry to hear that :)
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
I think they should use a Barret .50.
And the targets should be 750 yards downrange.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
And there should be a squad of men on horseback tracking them.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
All white snowsuits.
Camo would make them too easy to locate by the guys on horseback.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
Good point.
We should draft a proposal to the IOC.
Basically, tRA is FIP having a nightmare.
~ Matt Swartz
The scoring could be based on...
how many mission-critical targets the biathletes neutralize before the guys on horseback catch them.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
I also think The Running Man...
should be an event in the Summer Olympics.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
The Running Man????
WTF is that
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
oh ok thanks
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Oh, shit on me.
I’m going to be using that.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
Speaking of expensive...
I read an article recently which argued, pretty convincingly, that Greece’s sovereign debt problems are a result of their hosting the Olympics and that Olympics have historically been a fiscal disaster for their hosting cities.
It was probably in Reason, come to think of it.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
No...
It was a longer piece than that. I’m pretty sure it was either in Reason or The Atlantic.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
Hmm.
I found an Atlantic blog entry pointing to the Matheson piece, but can’t find anything longer. If you come across it again, I’d be interested in reading it…
Who ever approves say I
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
The Man should get a larger gun to show how tough they are
Like the Ak-47 and the women should stay with the gun they have since they they nag and b——
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
I think they need to use the gun from Quigley Down Under.
And shoot targets that are 1.5 miles away. That would be the bees knees.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
I never had much use for one, never said I didn't know how to use it
Love that movie.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
by WestTxAg06 on Feb 28, 2010 6:14 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Tom Selleck at his finest.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Bullets are round like the shooting game
on the State Fair midway. Just big-assed BBs. Still that has to be a bitch controlling your breathing.
"If this video was an ice cream flavor, it'd be pralines and dick." Clark
re: Matthew Wilder-Break My Stride, 4/17/09
They are, but I saw the close ups
where the bullet was hitting the target. It just left a little dent and bounced off. Looked like when Ralphie shot the target in a Christmas Story and it clocked him under the eye.
"If this video was an ice cream flavor, it'd be pralines and dick." Clark
re: Matthew Wilder-Break My Stride, 4/17/09
Well, fuck me.
I was about as wrong as I could be.
Ammunition must be the international standard .22 caliber long-rifle shot made from lead or a lead alloy. It is loaded into a magazine that holds five rounds. For the relay, three extra rounds are stored in the bottom of the magazine. Competitors place them into a cup at the range, and only use them if they need them. The magazines are stored in the rifle stock while skiing, and the rifle is only loaded at the range.
Yes, Virginia, they are rifles.
"If this video was an ice cream flavor, it'd be pralines and dick." Clark
re: Matthew Wilder-Break My Stride, 4/17/09
Okay, but I was also wrong about ball shaped projectiles,
which can be used in rifles. I should have remembered this from Civil War history, but I’ve been displacing that knowledge with new-fangled baseball stats like OPS.
Apparently, the adoption of rifling spurred the move toward breach loading and ammunition that resembles what we know today.
rifling was first used in cannon
and they fired cannonballs.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
I meant small arms,
but cannon was what confused me in the first place since I had assumed they always relied on ballistic approaches. I’m in awe of the force it must have taken to shove a good sized cannonball down a rifled barrel.
I don't really know much...
…about military history going that far back, but for a long time cannon was a fairly primitive weapon. As late as the civil war, at least, they’d just fire them straight into the enemy lines and the bouncing ball would just cause holy hell going through the ranks. I think they had explosive charges back then, too. I know they had mortar probably even long before that, but the pictures I’ve seen look like the barrel was so short that rifling would do much for accuracy. In the late 19th century artillery and ballistics took a huge leap forward.
I’m not sure how much force would be required to fire a cannonball through a rifled barrel. Most rounds were only 8 and 10 pounds, I think. But by the time the big naval guns came along with those huge rounds and big ranges and much better engineering tolerances, I bet it took a shit ton of force. But in the 1820’s or whatever they didn’t have an explosive that energetic.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know that much about it either
and was intrigued by a couple of the things I found.
One thing: what I meant was the human power needed to ram the ball into the cannon. As I understand it, before rifling, the ball could be a looser fit packed in on top of powder and wadding along with a host of nasty things, e.g chain. Once you need the barrel to score the ball and thereby spin it, you need a bigger artillery crew and a long ramrod.
They are some sweet looking guns, though.
"If this video was an ice cream flavor, it'd be pralines and dick." Clark
re: Matthew Wilder-Break My Stride, 4/17/09
.22 caliber
I don’t think they even use higher powered rifles in the summer Olympic shooting contests anymore. I researched it awhile back and the only current contests they have in the summer Olympics is target shooting at 50 yards with a .22. I have shot guns since it was 5 or 6 years old and I can guarantee that precision and accuracy with an open-sighted .22 at 50 yards while trying to catch your breath is not an easy task. Your not going to pull your shots with a .22 like you would with a higher powered rifle; but a .22 doesn’t seem to have the same consistency with shot placement as a larger caliber rifle.
you know
Guns have the potential to make the Olympics much more interesting. Track and Field? Combine that with target shooting. That would sure make the pole vault more fun. And figure skating would really benefit.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
Ice Dancing
Ice dancing desperately needs some guns.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Feb 28, 2010 10:11 AM CST up reply actions
Lol
It would be funny seeing them dodge some bullets as they dance
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:13 AM CST up reply actions
and Curling is?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Feb 28, 2010 11:40 AM CST up reply actions
Border Guards
This sport came from the guys patrolling the the international borders.
by CONCRETE_GUY on Feb 28, 2010 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
though I watched Curling the otherday all the way through heh
Sweden knocking out Canada was intenSe
Hey...
..wanna throw up an “OT: This time it counts!” Hockey post?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 28, 2010 1:30 PM CST up reply actions
Dallas Morning News says that Fieldman is for sure
somewhere in the top 2
Plus the Players like him
He’s gone out and and developed a lot of crediblity with his teammates to go along with the talent to pitch at high level- Michael Young
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
I wish our team didn't relase Millwood
He was our best pitcher and he had pitched a perfect game at one point
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:01 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah it was stupid we traded him to La
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
Heh
And boom goes the Snark…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Hey, did you read this?
More background on SIERRA, with regard to DIPS & BABIP. Good stuff.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Heh.
I did. My favorite line:
Basically, tRA is FIP having a nightmare.
(I’ve been pondering making that my sig…)
I had planned to post day-by-day links to the whole series, and then recap it, but life got in the way.
You should, it's a great line.
Ah, and the comments; but Miguel de Los Santos’ 52% strikeout rate….against what competition, exactly?
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
I was wondering if that was iblum.
Matt was very polite throughout all of his responses. I should print them out and re-read them before responding to posts bemoaning the fact that the Rangers traded Franco to the Dodgers.
That was me.
Miguel did it in the DSL. he’s still 20 though, so old for the league. He was also the closer and is left handed. don’t know why he wasn’t at short season ball…. definitely needs to be there this year. His baseball reference page
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
Very interesting.
I’ve been a big fan of tRA because its methodology seems to be more thorough than FIP’s, but I’ve been waiting for something to show strong or weak correlation. I guess that would be what I was looking for, eh.
You should
I can only imagine the kind of hell you’ll get for telling some of their mods that their stat isn’t good.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Yup.
I had read about the potential issues with tRA, but this is one of the clearest explanations I’ve read about why,
Care to summarize
the issues?
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I'll just quote this:
Since tRA asked the question, “What would the average pitcher’s ERA be, given his strikeout, walk, home run, pop-up, ground-ball, non-HR outfield fly ball, and line-drive rate?” it was given an answer that highly correlated with line drives. There is a negative -0.23 correlated between line drive in a given season and ERA for pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings, but line-drive rate does not carry over to the following season. Thus, any DIPS statistic that relies on line-drive rate will unravel the following season if it tries to predict ERA. That is why when tRA was compared to FIP in predicting the following year’s ERA, it did worse. It uses all the same information, and a bunch of extra information to confuse itself. Basically, tRA is FIP having a nightmare.
Now, maybe there’s a rebuttal, but this squares with what I’d recalled reading elsewhere about tRA vs. FIP. (I’m not exactly sure where ~ I’d have to do some digging to find it again. I really should start maintaining a database or something.)
Thanks, I'm reading now
Had a student cancel so I’m using the time to read.
Really, though, it seems like tRA, xFIP, and SIERA are all pretty close in their predictive value. Marginal improvement is welcome, as is the increased understanding of all the parts of these formulas, but Graham’s reaction above seems pretty petulant, and the overall fuss bewilders me.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I teach piano
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I need to learn ' Fur Elise'
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Do you play?
For most of my students, that one is about 4 or 5 years in, less if they really work.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Very sparingly and sporadically.
If I could choose one to learn, that would be it. Or some SWonder clavinet.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
They're smart guys, but. . .
. . . it doesn’t bode well if your reaction to peer review unearthing potential flaws in your attempt to advance baseball science is childish insults.
This is relevant to the discussion, though.
Starting from a nonlinear regression makes way less sense than starting from what actually happens in a baseball game.
I saw that
but I don’t really understand the comment. How does that negate SIERA predicting ERA more closely than tRA?
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I'm wondering
why everything in a game has to be linear. Over lots and lots of games it would seem like nonlinear regression actually makes perfect sense. I get the premise behind DIPS theory, no problem, but some of these arguments about the nitty gritty sausage making lose me and even when I do understand what they mean I get the feeling they’re really picking some pretty small nits in terms of results.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I'd really like the LoL guys to specifically and maturely address SIERA and what's good and bad about it vs. tRA.
Again, they’re smart. They can and should do it. I feel like advancing baseball knowledge is a lot more important than snarky fights between web sites and having the best stat.
Possible problem with nonlinear regression
It’s hard to figure out the right way of doing it – there is one kind of linear regression – the linear; there are endless possibilities for nonlinear regressions. Particularly since datasets generally have a lot of scatter, it’s sometimes difficult to tell what the best form of nonlinear regression to use.
You also run the risk of drowning in the sea empiricism – where you end up just trying to get a best fit for your data points, but lose track of possible explanations of why the data points are they way they are (i.e. logical explanations behind them)
I have no idea
The second paragraph is a generalization, it tends to happen with increasing complexity of an empirical model, but does not necessarily happen. If you build the model well, then it’s not an issue.
I don’t know enough about SIERA to make any comments specifically about it right now, so I can only resort to spouting out nebulous generalities that may or may not be relevant to the discussion.
That seems to be some folks' gripe,
but I thought Matt and Eric did a decent job explaining how and why they came up with their regression equation.
There might be debates over their methods, but I don’t think they drowned in their data.
That's what I was thinking...
…but wasn’t sure. Thanks for the confirmation.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 28, 2010 5:38 PM CST up reply actions
Somewhat related. . .
. . . in searching for discussions of SIERA on LoL, I found someone asking about why Matthew’s projections for Lee are less conservative than most projection systems or statistics.
Well. . . he is a Mariners fan. . .
That's also very interesting.
Of course, one thing xFIP will continue to have on SIERA is a more user-friendly website to call home.
Absolutely.
It’d be a shame, though, if BP and FanGraphs (or some third parties) couldn’t get it all together and post the two side-by-side…
Pipe dream, maybe.
Are you actually shocked by that response?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Me, too.
I think SIERA is interesting because of its much different approach, relative to FIP.
By the way, the discussion here at The Book has been complicated but educational…
Is there anywhere
that has any leaderboard or something of SIERA?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I don't know.
I’d guess that it’s too new for anyone to have had a chance to do that, but maybe the folks at BP have it up…? (I’m not a subscriber, and I haven’t looked into it yet.)
Does the same apply to hitters?
In other words, do hitters have control over their LD%? Hitter seem to have more control over their year-to-year BABIP; it that because they have more control over their LD%, or perhaps more control over their BABIP on certain type of balls in play (speedy hitters and BABIP on GBs, for example)?
The one thing that continuously bother me is that if hitters can control their BABIP, why is it that pitchers cannot.
Hitters definitely have more control
because their skill is in making good contact with whatever pitch is thrown, and in pitch recognition, etc. This is precisely why the pitcher does not have control over line drive rate. And to use Swartz’s example, Michael Young is going to make solid contact a lot more than Endy Chavez. That is Young’s skill.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
really?
I thought that was one of the mantras people kept talking about to support the repeatability of high BABIP’s
The Statcorner glossary
has BABIP for hitters roughly LD (in decimal form) +0.11
Right
didn’t mean to imply otherwise.
One of the comments in Swartz’s post brought up a point I’ve often wondered. How do some pitchers maintain abnormally low BaBIP rates over long careers?
One day while looking at Feldman’s BaBIP rate (a tad low both last year and for his career) I noticed how many pitchers had much lower rates, even over thousands of innings. That can’t all be luck and good defense. Isn’t 1000 innings enough to cancel out luck?
Even using 3,000 innings as a minimum there are a lot of guys with BaBIPs in the .250-.270 range, and the highest figure in that group of pitchers is the .305 of Bobby Matthews. Now, of course, guys that last 3,000 innings in the majors are good, but that’s my point. If in any given year the BaBIP spread among pitchers centers more around .290-.300, then why are so many of the best pitchers below that? The average for that group of pitchers is closer to the low .280s.
This leads me to believe that pitchers might have some bit of control, or that the hitters being unable to make solid contact as often is part of the story. I don’t understand it, but I certainly haven’t yet seen a convincing explanation of the range of BaBIPs for the best pitchers.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Any list of guys who pitched 3000 innings
is going to lean towards the past, but a quick glance shows there may be fewer from the last decade or two than previous decades. I might actually count later on if I get time.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
How much of it is that cutter?
At least for Feldman, that cutter saw a lot of poor contact being made. There could be other reasons for other pitchers too. For some, it might be a pitch like the cutter or a sinkerball pitcher with a good IF behind him. For others like O’Day, it could just be their mechanics that keeps hitters uncomfortable.
The problem with a lot of of these kinds of statistics and the regression you can expect is that they look at everyone as a whole where you could easily have special cases that are the exception. These special cases also don’t have to be that rare.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Feldman's BaBIP
was low before 2009 so I wouldn’t chalk it all up to the cutter.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
He was still throwing it in 2008 though
Anyways, it could just be that he got lucky in 08 and it was more skill related in 09. That’s also part of the problem with BABIP. Sometimes it might be luck while others its actual skill.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Right, but...
one can just as easily argue that a better pitcher can make it more difficult for hitters to make good contact. It’s a lot easier to make solid contact on a 88 mph McCarthy mediumball than to do it on a 98 mph Felizian RPG. Michael Young can certainly make better contact that Endy Chavez, but it is still harder for him to make solid contact against Feliz than someone like Carlos Silva, for example.
Of course, it’s a lot more likely that hitters can’t put the ball in play against Feliz at all versus against Silva, but that would correlates to K and BB rates for hitters as well. The essential problem is that why making solid contact, while putting balls in play is a skill that can be controlled by hitters, but not pitchers – even though the skill of both parties would logically affect the expected outcome.
Related to my post just above yours
and kind of what I’m wondering in my long rant on pitcher BaBIPs. I think it might be as simple as, hitters have a small amount of control over their BaBIPs by virtue of their ability to make solid contact (relative to other hitters), and vice versa, I still believe that pitchers have some control over how difficult it is for hitters to make that contact, just less control than the hitters have.
A couple of sentences in Swartz’s post almost hint at this but won’t go that far.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I'm cynical and ignorant on these stats.
Isn’t it obvious that a hard sinker, e.g. Kevin Brown’s prime, is harder to make solid contact against?
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
There you go.
As I said, I’m ignorant on this stuff.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Isn't that pretty good?
Where’s the best place to find a collective leaderboard?
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
So, the Bambino is the all time
leader. Another bulletpoint for the Babe.
Interesting that so many are pre-WW II, before defense was so advanced. Errors might have been given out more liberally.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
I don't know if you should count that as a bullet point for the Babe.
A high BABIP is most likely luck that will come down over a larger sample size.
And I believe you are correct about errors. Fielding was also more difficult (mostly due to older gloves).
Yes, that's the problem
That certainly makes sense, but the problem is that the data of all of the pitchers from the past however many years show that this is not the case, at least on average. Remember, the data IS the reality – it is what actually happened, and it doesn’t care whether you can explain it or not. Stats are directly based on what ACTUALLY happened.
On the other hand, we can’t just accept something that appears to be the reality, but cannot be explained – which is why this whole discussion is going on.
by Telegraph on Feb 28, 2010 3:34 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks.
That’s why I’m asking, but it’s messing with how I’ve watched the game forever. Interesting to check out.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Your gut is right, though, in a way
Brown was harder to hit than many other pitchers. But once the ball is in play (once the contact has been made) the difference between two given pitchers is negligible.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Okay, maybe a stupid question but,
Do any of these take into account slugging pct in play?
Seems to me if Brown or say, Derek Lowe, has been effective with an average BABiP- It’s because of singles. Followed by base-erasing double plays often.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Warning! Acronym alert.
When Brown made the switch to the NL, his K/BB ratio increased markedly, and for a good stretch, he gave up even fewer than average HR/9.
That’s a pretty good combo.
I absolutely believe pitchers have some control.
I would think that’s inarguable. I think the argument is how much that can be accurately utilized for statistical evaluation.
That's my feeling
but DIPS theory starts from the premise that they have no control. Now, lately, I’ve seen some guys say that sinkerball types and ground ball guys might have a slightly lower rate, but not much.
I might mess around with that fangraphs career leader board some day this week if I get time. I wonder if most of those guys who are lower were more ground ball types, or if they cluster heavily in certain eras of play, or…I don’t know.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Yes sir
This is great reading, even a day later.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
A cursory glance shows
8 of the top 20 post WW II. Of those 8, 2 are knucklers- Wilhelm and Hough.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Interesting.
Based on a quick look on BP, league-average BABIP has been rising steadily since 1954, when the AL mark was .277 and the NL .278 ~ which is interesting, since in many years, the NL was markedly lower than the AL.
Last year, the AL was .304 and the NL was .302, just for reference.
That confirms
my initial suspicion.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Is 1954
as far back as their league BaBIP goes?
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
It's as far back as I can get BP's stats.
I imagine the recorded stat has been calculated prior to that, since Fangraphs has it for older players.
But I can’t seem to call it up in tabular format, and it took a while for me to manually build the spreadsheet from 1954 to the present, so…
I'm trying to find
the league-average BABIP, by year, and can’t seem to find a full table ~ I can find it for individual years at BP and BR, but not for a bunch of years at once.
Anyone have any hints?
Yep.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
First impression:
The lowest BABiPs are in the raised mound era(‘63-’68), therefore pitchers have a greater effect. Dunno why the AL is much lower during that time.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
What struck me most
was the sudden rise starting in 1993. Sort of astonishing, even if I was mostly expecting it.
Suggests that the career stats before, after, and spanning that point are difficult to compare, right?
Yeah, since that stat removes
the homer, that’s a huge bump. Can’t figure a good reason. I wonder if it has to do with the more aggressive nature of hitters nowadays. i.e. either a K or a solidly hit ball.
More guys hack like it’s 2-0 when it’s actually 1-2.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
I thought that too,
but wouldn’t that affect hitters and pitchers equally?
Unless there’s just less MLB-worthy pitchers than hitters.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Except the Marlins got the 20th
best of all time- Charlie Hough. :)
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
True.
But Hough’s BABIP in his two seasons with Florida was .288 and .283 ~ better than league average in both years, but much, much more pedestrian than his .258 career average…
How about the Rockies?
one of the expansion teams in 93 was the Rockies. Adding a huge hitter friendly park to the mix could skew the numbers a bit more towards hitters over pitchers.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Rockies' team pitching in
expansion year- .319 BABiP.
FLA a respectable .293.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
So what we need
is a BaBIP+ to compare across eras.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Great chart
The ‘73 bump is pretty obvious (DH) and I’d argue the ’93 incline being related to expansion (as many others have), but throw in the possibility of juicing having an effect. Crazy?
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Some folks also think
the ball was being made a tad differently. I’d say if that’s true, than that and expansion had a greater effect than steroids. Steroids didn’t happen suddenly from one year to the next.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
True
And I had forgotten about the whole “different ball” thing.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Sorry wrong name
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
by sportsfan900 on Feb 28, 2010 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
Can someone check something
I’m pretty sure this guy is the same guy who was spamming his blog the last few days.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Good point!
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
No he wasn't
And he wasn’t released, either.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
Just wondering what is Rick Harden's pitching record
IF you see a opportunity you take the opportunity
Rich Harden's pitching record...
…better than anyone else on the team.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 28, 2010 9:53 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I hear they're doing wonderful things at baseball-reference these days
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
by WestTxAg06 on Feb 28, 2010 9:54 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
This guy's going to be a tremendous addition to GDT.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Feb 28, 2010 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
Eleventyteen
"If this video was an ice cream flavor, it'd be pralines and dick." Clark
re: Matthew Wilder-Break My Stride, 4/17/09
by EssBee on Feb 28, 2010 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
so
what was the last one?
"Clearly, I've been wrong. VY is awesome." - AJM
by Longhorn on Feb 28, 2010 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The Ho signs with the Yankmees
By Luke Adams [February 28 at 11:04am CST]
The New York Yankees have designated Edwar Ramirez for assignment, according to a team press release. The move was necessary to make room on the 40-man roster for Chan Ho Park, whose signing is now official.
Josey Wales born on LSB July 18, 2006 Jumped the shark--That glorious day in 2008. RIP Josey Wales.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
just what the Yankees need, another Ho.
better them than us :)
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
This is true
Jason Jennings and his giant ass just signed with the A’s as well.
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
now is that 2 roster spots or one?
His fat ass should get it’s own roster spot.
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
thanks Mike E!
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
Actually, he should be added to the roster of every team they play.
Since he’s the opponents best player when he’s in the game.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
yeh I'm looking forward to the Rangers teeing off on him...
unless he spends the season in the minors :(
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
I wouldn't had minded him in the pen.
Though it’d be somewhat difficult for me to accept him being here again based on his last stint with the Rangers.
I was thinking once i woke up
That really this team could either be amazing or they could absolutely suck. Usually you kind of now either way. Or know they your team would be average, but with this team. Good lord it’s going to be a long ride.
I know this is not new news, but it has got me worried today.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
Agree
I think that the rangers will be really streaky this year because of the inconsistencies. May see some long winning streaks and some long losing streaks and come August and September still have no idea how good they are.
by nathanbaum09 on Feb 28, 2010 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
pardon me I'm warming up for Thursday...
Let’s go Rangers!!! Clap Clap Clap Clap Clap!!!!
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
by BigGuns on Feb 28, 2010 12:20 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
If you wanna check up on Purke's noon start out in Cali
Gametracker – He gave up an unearned run in the 1st due to 2 WP’s.
What an utter failure
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Purke looks like Howdy Doody, I had no idea...
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
Actually
He looks damn close to that guy that played Jimmy Olsen in the new Superman flick.
"The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason." - Benjamin Franklin
oh yehhhh... you're right he does..
he’s also got a ’lil Howdy Doody in him…
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
OT: Anybody seen these cats. Good shit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xOxHyTP91c&feature=related
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
I enjoyed that, thanks Scoop!
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
for some unknown reason it reminds me of
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
That harmony is tight
and when they occasionally sing in unison it is very impressive how in tune they are, sounds like one singer.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
here's another
I flirted with the hot one at SxSW a few years ago. She wasn’t into it.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
The hot one
Being the hot one amongst those 2 is like being the thinnest kid at fat camp.
by LoneStarBallUser on Feb 28, 2010 2:02 PM CST up reply actions
'I flirted with the hot one at SxSW a few years ago. She wasn’t into it.'
I wouldn’t feel bad. From reading their bio, I don’t think Brad Pitt would make inroads.
Good song.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
nah they're actually married
Though I don’t think they were then. They’re very talented for sure.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
linked on that page
I kind of like Tegan and Sara sometimes, too.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
I can see that. Pretty harmonies.
I gotta get over my music cynicism, there’s good shit out there.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
That guy playing the jug and spoons is my new hero...stallion.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Feb 28, 2010 1:53 PM CST up reply actions
I was hoping it was real cats
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
If MY is the second coming of Molitor, I'll take back a bit of my dislike for him.
We’ll see, though.
Also, I mad the mistake of scrolling down to the comments.
Awesome conversation.
Me: “Oh, look, it’s Don Cherry.”
GF: “OH MY GOODNESS!”
Me: “Oh, you have no idea. That suit’s conservative for him.”
GF: “HE IS WEARING RED VELVET!”
Me: “Yeah.”
He sounds like an animated
Cliff Clavin to me.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Don't you ever say Canada is the United States' Big Brother ever again, Jeremy Roenick.
Moron.
by TooLegitToQuit on Feb 28, 2010 2:05 PM CST via mobile reply actions
When I was a kid I had several Sergio Aragones books.
I think this is was stolen from a cartoon he did of Mexican banditos.
I don't get it.
Michael Young is a ballerina, yes, but why?
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
he casts the shadow of a prima donna?
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
no
unless the ballerina is also an opera singer.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 8:50 PM CST up reply actions
a ballerina can be a prima donna, a lot of them are...
there is a second definition for the word below…I don’t think this applies to MY, more to CJ
2 : a vain or undisciplined person who finds it difficult to work under direction or as part of a team
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
guess it's hard to silhouette an opera singer
I’m not really sure “prima donna” describes anyone on the Rangers. Wilson says a dumb thing every now and then but it’s blown way out of proportion. Young did initially want to be traded when he was told he’d be moving to third base, which is more prima donna-like, but on the whole he hasn’t been one. I can’t think of anyone else that would fit the description. Baseball is low on prima donnas league-wide, it seems. I can’t think of any of the top of my head. Maybe Alex Rodriguez, but maybe not. I’m sure there are some but none stick out to me at the moment.
by Black Francis on Feb 28, 2010 10:55 PM CST up reply actions
the sporting news did a list of top ten sports prima donna's
not that they’re the most reputable source in the world but it’s a fun read and yes Alex made # 2
10 biggest pro sports Prima donna’s ever ?
Filed under: MLB
E-MAIL | PRINT | COMMENTS Aug 27, 2009 12:47 PM report abuse
Brett Favre has quickly climbed up the ladder of among Pro Sports biggest Prima Donnas’ . Over the years every one of the major pro sports and those individualized ones such as Tennis and Golf has had an abundence of them. Here is a list of players that I think rank high on this dubious list.
1) Michael Jordan – For all his greatness Jordan was and still is a Prima Donna. Jordan chose coaches and basically was the “REAL COACH” of all those championship Bulls teams. Sorry it is what it is.
2) Alex Rodriguez – Who can remember his outrages demands when the Mets were courting his services ? Would the Mets have been better off giving into those demands possibly, but by now he would have whined his way out of Queens ?
3) Tiger Woods – He plays to win and for a fee of course. Those appearance fees, must be a nice gig if you can get it. Every single aspect of a tournament has to be to his liking otherwise that becomes the reason why he didn’t win. This of course is the thinking of Tiger Woods and the star-struck media that supports this foolishness. How come Phil Mickleson never complains about spectators snapping pictures ?
4) Brett Favre – Blame the city of Green Bay, Wisconsin,all the cheeseheads, ESPN but definitely NOT Brett Favre for the mess that exist today. How else is one human being supposed to respond when for almost 20 years he has been protected,pampered and relatively blameless. Brad Childress has become the latest victim of Brett Mania. Last year it was Jets owner Woody Johnson. Who will it be next year ?
5) Dale Earnhardt, Jr – Simply put too much controversy for any heir to a legend, and not enough W’s to go along with it.
6) Allen Iverson – These days he’ll play for dinner but there was a time when it was all about him, never mind the team. A great individual talent but one who never grasped the team concept.
7) Guess Who – I retired prematurely and left a known “dead end” situation because I had enough of the losing. O.K. so maybe he doesn’t belong on this list but there are certain teams that are just born losers, so why quit on them. This team has never recovered because of this rash decision. Just my opinion.
Jason Kidd – How can any list like this go on without mentioning Jason Kidd? How many former NBA players and their families owe thanks to Kidd because of his whiny ways. Alonzo Mourning got a Fat paycheck because of Kidd, as did Penny Hardaway, Dikembe Mutoumbo, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion, and countless others. Not to mention the best coach in the history of the Nets organization was thanked by being fired after leading his team to back to back NBA finals appearances. Jason Kidd then held the organization hostage and got $100 million dollar ransom . Imagine a small market outfit like the Nets paying $100 million for any player. Fast fwd to 2009-10 season and the expectations for the Nets is the NBA draft lottery for 2010. Thanks Jason.
9) The Manning Family – New York & Indianapolis has fared well thanks to the Prima Donna ways of this clan. I guess on fatherly advice Peyton chose to become a 5th year student at Tennessee rather than come out and be picked #1 overall by the New York Jets. Maybe the Jets would have another superbowl ring by now maybe not. The point is this be a man be your own MAN make your OWN decisions. Then there is Eli. The good citizens of San Diego must be grinding their teeth every time Eli Manning name is mentioned. Sure they received a nice consolation prize with Philip Rivers but they don’t own any championships while the QB who they should have taken Ben Roethlisberger has two and the other guy who wanted no part of them has one. I guess Eli didn’t want to become another Tony Gwynn.
10) Bill Parcells – He is a classic example. Like all of these guys on this list it was always about him. He bullied his team and media to such a degree they were just afterthoughts. Sure he had success with the Giants,Pats,Jets i’m sorry he didn’t do a damn thing in Dallas. What gets him on this list is the fawning other NFL teams did whenever he decided to put his services up for sale. Who did they think they were getting, Curly Lambeau, Knute Rockne, Chuck Noll.
Until
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
i don't understand the Kidd complaint
they are mad because Kidd wanted to get paid? That’s the definition of a prima donna?
although when I think of a sports prima donna...
I think of someone who’s a bit of a peacock and doesn’t like to get his uni. dirty like MY but that’s just my own definition.
If the Rangers don't make the play-offs this year I'm gonna go all Epic Bearded Man on your ass.
So, 'Guess Who' is Barry Sanders?
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
Don't read too much into it.
Sure, MY ticks me off sometimes but it was mostly about seeing if I could use gimp and paint to get the effect I wanted without too much time/effort consumed. I regret not tilting the shadow to reflect the sun’s angle – forgot to do that before I posted it.
Hahaha!
Most excellent.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
When manager Bobby Cox said that the Braves will probably install nets to protect cars from Jason Heyward’s prodigious batting-practice home runs, reporters thought he was kidding.He was not kidding.
"I’m serious," Cox said Thursday at Champion Stadium. "Smashing too many cars."
Yeah...
…saw that he hit a HR that went through the sun-roof of the assistant GM (?) and has caused damage to many other cars. I was a doubter at first – not that he’d be good, just that he would fulfill the hype as the best prospect in baseball- but the latest stories/scouting profiles are getting ridunkulous. I’ve crossed over/seen the light.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 28, 2010 7:50 PM CST up reply actions
Almost an Inky like Spring
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
I'm quite impressed with myself randomly picking up off the FA wire in a keeper league last year
Can’t wait to get him in my everyday lineup.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Related to the conversation above, about the 1993 offensive spike in MLB:
David Pinto weighs in on Grant’s analysis of Young:
Evan Grant tries to get a handle on Michael Young’s future by looking at the careers of similar players. Of the four players he uses for a comparison, Paul Molitor, Barry Larkin and Julio Franco posted better OBPs after age 32 than before. The fourth, Craig Biggio, still played very well.
Grant, however, fails to adjust for the era. Molitor, Larkin and Franco all played most of their early years before the offensive explosion of 1993. Biggio was 27 in 1993, so he peaked just as offense took off. I think what we’re seeing is that these people played well past 1993, but their decline was covered by the increase in offense of that era.
Yeah, I didn't mean that to come off as critical of Grant as it might have.
I just found the sub-thread convergence too tidy to pass up.
Well, good and bad.
At some point I realized that I had a math error in Excel, so when I thought I was slightly under budget I was way over budget. That hasn’t ended up hurting me yet, but it has severely damaged my flexibility. Fortunately, no one has taken the players I needed to get back under budget.
CHONE has be at 42.4 WAR with 14 rounds left to go and just over half my budget spent. It took a little over 60 WAR to win last year.
Sounds as if in you're in decent shape despite the math problem.
Who was your top pick? And did you snag any Rangers?
(I’d check myself, but I opened that first thread, and it’s a bit long…)
My first pick was Ryan Braun.
I’ve had Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz and Julio Borbon all taken when I was zeroing in on them as my next pick. I’m pretty sure a few of us have near-identical draft boards.
I did get Colby Lewis. I probably could have waited on him, but I needed to get back under budget.
That looks super sweet to do.
I’m going to have to pick your brain on how that works and your strategy. Then give it a try next year. No way I have time to cram in how it all works and find a draft this year. If there are even drafts still starting up.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Agreed.
I hope philkid3 keeps us updated on how it goes this year. Maybe we can get an LSB one going next year.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 1, 2010 12:17 AM CST up reply actions
And, really, one this year would probably be possible still.
I don’t know if I want to volunteer for that on such short notice, though.
If it was next year, without a doubt.
But like I said, I don’t think I would be any good this year without cramming.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Chance for me to post the team I drafted today
Yahoo public, 12 team rotisserie
C Mauer, 1B Votto, 2B Beckham, 3B Sandoval, SS A. Ramirez, OF Upton, OF Bruce, OF A. Jones, Util Matsui, Util Coghlan, BN Prado, BN, Fowler, BN Dukes, BN Al Escobar
SP Gallardo, SP, B. Anderson, SP, Jurrjens, SP Garza, RP Baily, RP Jenks, RP Wuertz, RP Mike Adams, RP Howell
Wow...
…Nice team. Pitchers aren’t proven quite yet, but the upside is definitely there.
LOL @ OF A. Jones
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 1, 2010 12:16 AM CST up reply actions
I'm sure it was his second round pick right?
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
I know. My first thought was Andruw.
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
He's trying to fit into that 3rd base mold.
I could see him putting up a .290/.360/.530. With his usual ass load of doubles and maybe 25 HRs? This is certainly optimistic, but am I crazy thinking this? I’m sure you guys will set me straight.
PS I’m not a huge MY man-love-stalking-crush kinda guy. I’m pretty meh on him.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
At the Newberg thing he was noticeably larger.
His traps are beastly as are his latissimus dorsis.
Been waiting a long time to say latissimus dorsi.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 1, 2010 7:55 AM CST up reply actions
I think that makes sense
Especially considering he actually dropped weight a few years ago to better himself at SS. He can afford to carry more bulk at 3rd.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
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