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Best In The West

As of May 24th, the Rangers are leading a very competitive four team race in the AL West.  WTF you ask? :)
Well, I am using my baseball simulator to play each game of the 2010 season (actual schedules) 10,000 times. 

It's a fairly slow process as you can imagine and I am currently up to May 24th.  There has been some juggling of teams at the top of the standings.  The A's were in first after the first two weeks, then the Mariners took over the lead up until the Rangers unseated the Ms as of May 24th and have actually opened up a bit of a lead.

I take the win expectancy of each game and sum them all up to get a teams likely win/loss record.  Here are what the standings look like as of (Updated to July 1), and note the use of fractional wins due to the summing of WE for each game.

Current to July 1st games

AL West
Team Wins Losses W Pct
Rangers 40.6 37.4 .520
Angels 41.1 39.9 .507
Mariners 39.3 38.7 .504
A's 40.1 39.1 .501

 

Here are the standings for the rest of the divisions. So far the team results that stick out are the low win totals for both the Cardinals and Mets.

For input the simulator uses weighted projections and regressed UZR for defense. Park factors are also included.
vr, Xei

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My own proprietary system

But not all that different than your typical Marcel, Chone etc… I just put more weight on what has happened recently than they do – and I use a log scale instead of a linear scale for weighting. I am not saying my method is better or worse. Our aging curves are probably very similar, but I am sure our regression methods have some differences too.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 4, 2010 4:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Interesting.

Lots of work involved in that so good luck…

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by TxStCa on Feb 4, 2010 4:35 PM CST reply actions  

Rangers rotation

First off, a little methodology background. I got roster depths from each teams Yahoo website, so hopefully the rotations are correct – or atleast close to correct. What I am doing is using 7 starting pitchers for each team. I use a regular 5 man rotation, but every once in a while I have the 6th or 7th starter sub in for one of the top five starters. I didn’t want all the top five starters all getting 32 or 33 starts, as that wasn’t too realistic. I programmed it so the top starter gets the most starts and the #7 starter gets the least amount.

I tried to order each rotation as to have the best starter at #1 and worst at #5, with #6 and #7 usually be a minor leaguer, mop up man in the pen or a spring training invitee – basically the bottom tier starters are pretty much the same so in most cases it was pick your poison of replacement level starting pitcher. Here is what I used for the Rangers.

1. Harden
2. Feldman
3. Hunter
4. Holland
5. Lewis
6. McCarthy
7. Nippert

I am not too much concerned if the order is “slightly” wrong, as it shouldn’t change the results much unless I had Harden at #5 or something along those lines. If I am missing someone from the rotation please point it out and I can add him in.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 4, 2010 5:05 PM CST up reply actions  

In July you can put Feliz in

Don’t know who you replace though? Hunter?

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by TxStCa on Feb 4, 2010 5:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Is that a gaurantee

that Feliz is in the rotation sometime during 2010? If so, I’d probably just make him the #7 starter – which would net him about 12 starts in my system. I’d have to do similar stuff for other teams too, then it becomes a bit more complex than I’d like.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 4, 2010 5:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Moreso hope.

'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'

by scoop16 on Feb 4, 2010 5:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Just hope.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by TxStCa on Feb 4, 2010 8:19 PM CST up reply actions  

that looks pretty close to me

minor tweaks but those are probably the 7 in some order.

so nice work.

by ab03 on Feb 4, 2010 9:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Exercise is complete now

Basically a statistical dead heat between all four AL West teams.

Mariners – 82.4 – 79.6
Angels – 82.2 – 79.8
Athletics – 81.5 – 80.5
Rangers 80.9 – 81.1

Other divisions:
Yankees-Red Sox-Rays-Blue Jays-Orioles
Twins-White Sox-Tigers-Royals-Indians
Braves-Phillies-Marlins-Mets-Nationals
Cubs-Cardinals-Brewers-Reds-Pirates-Astros
Dodgers-Rockies-Diamondbacks-Giants-Padres

by Xeifrank on Feb 17, 2010 12:25 PM CST reply actions  

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