Julio Borbon Community Projections Discussion Thread
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 12, 2010 12:38 PM CST
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Place to discuss projections.
How will Borbon perform defensively? How many bags will he take?
I think he'll play a decent centerfield but will improve over the year. Arm will never be there but his contributions from the leadoff spot will make us forgive that.
I'm gonna say that Borbon will steal atleast 60 bases in '10. If he can ratchet that obp to around .360 (I have him at .335) then he'll take 70-75.
To me, he is the most intriguing player to watch this year, he's a player we've been waiting on around here for a good while.
The potential for devastation on the paths that he and Elvis have from the 9-1 make me want to do something that would embarrass my family for years.
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"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 12, 2010 12:55 PM CST up reply actions
Stop copying me!
I’m sure you arrived at your prediction more scientifically than me anyways. I could have just as easily gone with 10 points higher or lower in all 3 of the categories, but I think Borbon is going to be around average offensively (according to OPS) with his SBs being where he becomes clearly above average offensively. Playing CF while doing this will only help him be that much more valuable.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It wasn't that scientific.
I did make sure what I came up with wasn’t too far from CHONE, though. It wasn’t, I just gave him more PAs.
Then I saw yours. . .
You guys can suck it. Borbon is busting out this year.
Surely he can break .300. C’mon guys, have a little faith. He’s going to be belting gap drive doubles and bunt singles left and right.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
.290/.340/.400
That what I picked and that would be very nice from a center fielder. Don’t focus on the batting average.
I'm not too focused on it.
I had him at .422 Slugging. I think he’ll bring some pop to the table.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
I think he is closer to a Pierre type of player
then Kenny Lofton. At least for 2010. Put me down for 59 SBs and a whole lot of hand wringing over his defense early in the season.
Vladimir Guererro - 2010 AL MVP
If Borbon ever even remotely approaches Lofton's walk rate I'd shit on a puppy I'd be so delighted.
Lofton never got enough credit for how beastly he was at his peak, imo.
A speed merchant who could go get it in CF and posted multiple .400+ obp seasons… damn.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 12, 2010 4:36 PM CST up reply actions
Same here.
He was probably the best leadoff man of the 90’s. (I might be forgetting someone, though.)
His peak was fantastic.
How was his defense regarded?
I remember thinking he was really good in CF back in the day, but that was a while back now, and eyes only tell you so much anyhow.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 12, 2010 5:33 PM CST up reply actions
His defense was regarded very well.
And TotalZone backs it up. 7.8 runs above average for ever 1250 innings played. And that’s with a pretty horrible collapse after he turned 37. Five times in his prime a double digit run protector in the field.
And as long as we’re looking at TZ, his career WAR of 65.1 is within ten runs of Tim Raines, Ozzie Smith, Robbie Alomar, Ernie Banks, Manny Ramirez, Willie McCovey, Rafael Palmeiro and Craig Biggio. Two seasons firmly of MVP caliber and another 5-9 seasons on top of that around All-Star caliber. Even his last year in Texas BP has as an above average year.
Dude was sick. When I was a kid I assumed he was a Hall of Famer. Then I grew up and stopped thinking that. Then I started to care about defense, OBP and positional adjustments and changed my mind again.
That's very heady company
He may be borderline, or better. Let’s finally put the overly offensive era to an end, get more saber-friendly guys voting, and he may be close several years.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Borbon might have a Pierre like BA/OBP
but he’s going to hit for more power than Pierre. Borbon has some decent pop and can definitely get that extra base to turn line drive singles into doubles and doubles into triples
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Are we talking about the good Juan Pierre or the bad Juan Pierre?
Cause he’s been both at various points in his career.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 12, 2010 5:26 PM CST up reply actions
Good or bad, Juan Pierre never hit for any power
Pierre never cracked a .100 ISO while Borbon was able to do that his rookie season. And of course, Pierre hitting 4 HRs in a season never happened either while Borbon was able to do that in 179 PAs.
Overall, I can see Borbon this season giving something near Pierre’s career average of being a .300 hitter with a .348 OBP, but the power is what sets him apart from Pierre. Borbon just isn’t that weak of a slap hitter like some think he is.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
x
Didn’t think it was too far of a stretch since he has hit over .300 at every level since Bakersfield.
by GregoryM on Mar 12, 2010 1:01 PM CST up reply actions
If he can prove to hit lefties, he can be a .300 guy.
If he can’t hit lefties and Wash protects him because of that, then he can still hit .300.
It’ll be on Borbon to hit the lefty and up to Wash if he can’t.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Gotcha.
I think pitchers still won’t have a feel of how to pitch to him yet, which will give him a slight advantage there. I’m thinking just above .300 this year, .290ish the next year or two, then improve back into the .300 range. If we’re lucky. Just a hunch, nothing to back it up, as usual. heh
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Over 100 steals by our #1 and #9,
will be very exciting to watch.
Now if we can get them across home plate is a whole other story.
"Big whoop, wanna fight about it?"
I see a lot...
of optimism for Borbon. Don’t get me wrong, I think the guy is going to be the Rangers long-term solution for CF, but I also see him struggling a little at times this year. I don’t see him as a .300 hitter over the course of a full season. If he has an OPS over 720 or so I think I’ll be happy. As long as he plays well defensively in CF.
I expect him to steal 45-50 bases too.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I don't either.
I do think Warsh will fall in love with his speed and he’ll play a whole lot, so he’ll get more PA’s than most are predicting. I think Borbon will be good but not great with the bat, but an absolute terror on the bases.
by Black Francis on Mar 12, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions
I'm a little concerned about the reports we've bene hearing on that
and how he doesn’t seem to be utilizing his speed correctly. Still, watching him last season gives me confidence in his ability to steal bases at a 75% clip at least. And when you have Elvis and Borbon on base at the same time, the double steal will come into play, which is a great weapon that Wash has done a great job using correctly.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
If he can steal at only 75%, though, I only want him going strategically.
When we need a SB for some reason, I’m comfortable with a 75% guy going. But 75% is breaking even, not making running a plus. If he can only steal at a 75% clip, I don’t want him running 70 times a year.
Besides, running the paths a lot is not a good way to stay fresh and healthy for a whole season. Unless it can be a true plus, keep it limited.
I think if you can steal at a 75% clip and mathematically break even
Then the intangible part of base stealing, the minor effect it can have on the defense, the pitcher’s confidence, etc, will help make it a net positive.
I’m not too worried about Borbon’s stamina. A guy like Hamilton or an older player, maybe. But for Borbon, a young, college draftee who could probably benefit from all the experience he can get this season, its just not something I’m concerned about.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I'm worried about stamina.
I’m just going to have to be convinced that the “intangible” stuff is worth the risk. I mean, I’ll sure be excited during the games. I love stolen bases. But strategically it’s a worrisome strategy if he’s not clearly making it worth it.
Of course, if he can do it at a good enough rate to be clear with it, that’ll be awesome. I’m worried, doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
I'm not big into the intangible stuff either
But if he is truly breaking even, then I think that would tip the scales in favor of the stolen base Its just my opinion that going for the stolen base gets the tiebreaker as opposed to standing pat.
And yeah, I think its going to be a moot point by the end of the season, one way or another. He’s not likely to be right at that 75% point and if he is able to make it to or near the 50 SB mark, he’s going to have to get caught a lot to not make it worth him stealing bases.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I will say another reason I worry about staying healthy while stealing is Jose Reyes.
And how he always craps out as the year goes on.
I think there may be a different reason for that. . .
Isn't 67%, not 75%, breaking even?
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 12, 2010 10:35 PM CST up reply actions
Anything more than a 2 to 1 ratio would be better than breaking even
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 12, 2010 11:06 PM CST up reply actions
Okay, I think it might be a little more than 70%.
Using this linear weights chart.
Unless I’m missing something, at those run values, Once you hit 70.1%, you’re producing (barely) positive value. So you were closer than I was and I’m also a little less worried.
So let's say he steals 50.
That’s 9.75 runs added (which is actually nifty). Getting caught 21 times would take away 9.6 runs. Anymore and it’s now a negative. That’s just over 70% (70.42..). I think we can expect that.
I'll take the over on that ratio
I think if he is getting caught that often, the team will have him slow down a bit on stealing bases and try to pick his spots more carefully or work on his technique.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Agree
I don’t think they’ll let him run too much if he is not successful. And based on last year, I fully expect him to be successful.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
I think he can
We’ll see. But he’s definitely going to distract the hell out of some pitchers and force fielders to rush throws. That’s the havoc he’ll cause.
by Black Francis on Mar 12, 2010 6:44 PM CST up reply actions
I think another thing we're overly optimistic on is the SB's
It’s fucking hard to steal 50 bases in a season. Only 6 guys stole more than 40 last year, and of those 6 guys only one (BJ Upton, who somehow stole 42 with an OBP of .313) had an OBP below .350.
I don’t think Borbon is gonna have a .350 OBP this year, and as a result I don’t see him stealing more than 40.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
Screw you and your reckoning.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 12, 2010 8:33 PM CST up reply actions
Borbon stole 19 last season
in just 179 PAs, although it was accompanied with a .376 OBP. I think given his minor league track record and how he didn’t seem shy about stealing bases against ML pitcher-catcher duos, 50 is a reasonable number (as crazy as that might sound). Andrus also has a minor league track record to show that 50 is a reasonable goal, and again, looking at last season, he was able to steal 33 bases with only a .329 OBP. Give him some more starts, some more freedom, and a higher OBP, and he’s likely getting around 50 too.
Also, having Wash as a manager makes it very possible. He likes stealing bases and has the talent to do that.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I haven't looked it up
I think given his minor league track record and how he didn’t seem shy about stealing bases against ML pitcher-catcher duos, 50 is a reasonable number (as crazy as that might sound).
But I’m gonna go out on a limb and say those 6 guys that stole over 40 bases last year? I’ll wager they also had great “minor league track records.” Most likely greater ones.
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 12, 2010 10:41 PM CST up reply actions
Eh, Ellsbury, Michael Bourn and Carl Crawford, Nyjer Morgan, Figgins
Ellsbury and Bourn are fairly similar, I guess, and they where the top 2 (70 and 61).
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
.270/.335/.395, UZR/150 of +5 in CF.
His speed/defense will keep him the lineup when he goes through rough stretches, which he undoubtedly will, and his overall numbers will suffer a bit because of it due to the fact that I think Wash’ll end up writing his name into the lineup even against all but the toughest lefties this season.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
.335 OBP is a little harsh
Hell, he might bat that (likely not). Take out his age 21 season and he’s always had an OBP a good chunk above .335. I went with .360 which I think is right in the middle of what he can do.
How come so a low an OBP?
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
.360 is right in the middle??
Pfft. I think you are quibbling over the wrong number. He’s giving him a .65 point spread, which is higher than he’s ever had, college included.
His OBP, aside from his rook debut, has always been heavily avg-driven. Hopefully, last season was a sign that he’s learned how to take a walk, but I wouldn’t be sold on it yet. If he hits 270 but walks enough to get on base 33 percent of the time, this year, we should be pretty happy.
And come on, broheme. A 24 yr old Julio Borbon is so not hitting for a .335 avg. Not in MLB anyway.
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 12, 2010 6:35 PM CST up reply actions
His walk has steadily increased since Bakersfield
and both Borbon and the team have talked about how that is a part of his game he needs to work on with the results showing that he’s capable of doing so.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
BT is
just hatin’ on Borbon. Borbon kicked his dog or something.
"There's not a man alive who can whup me. I'm too fast. I'm too smart. I'm too pretty. I should be a postage stamp. That's the only way I'll ever get licked." --Muhammad Ali
On a serious note..
BT — Didn’t you disapprove of the Borbon pick or I am dreaming?
"There's not a man alive who can whup me. I'm too fast. I'm too smart. I'm too pretty. I should be a postage stamp. That's the only way I'll ever get licked." --Muhammad Ali
I did
I have come around on him a good bit. I admit he has surpassed my expectations so far.
Nevertheless, I think many here and elsewhere are a bit more bullish than the facts merit. Slappin speedsters frequently invite this sort of response,
Borbon is precisely the type of player we would all say is overrated if he wasn’t in our system. But, because he is, everyone is willing to wishcast that his historical shortcomings: mediocre eye, noodle arm, little power, etc. are all gonna be solved by the sheer force of his makeup and our developmental brilliance.
I think what we have with Julio is a pretty solid regular when he hits his prime. Which is really good, obviously, but not what many seem to expect.
That said, I switched to Dish last summer, losing extra innings, so I have seen very little of his defense. I’m really curious to see how he looks in the field.
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 12, 2010 10:34 PM CST up reply actions
I'll bet you a ton Borbon ends up becoming overrated.
I don’t disagree with you there, but I also don’t think overrated means bad. Juan Pierre is pretty overrated, but he was once pretty damn good. Even over his lesser years most of them are close to average.
As long as we don’t pay him like Pierre, I’ll be very happy if he has Pierre’s career. But yes, on any other team he’d eventually annoy me because he’d get overrated.
Oh no you dih ent...
Borbon is precisely the type of player we would all say is overrated if he wasn’t in our system.
Hey, fuck you.
Just because you hate me with a burning passion doesn’t mean I don’t count around here.
I think my stance on speedy dudes who can go get it in the OF is pretty well known.
The noodle arm does give me some pause, but after seeing it last year I’m not all that worried. I was afraid we might be looking at Johnny Damon when he was on the Yankees bad, but it’s not close to that level of suck.
I’m pretty sure if he was with another org I’d be advocating trading for him.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 12, 2010 11:21 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, your stance on guys like
Corey Patterson is very well known.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Apples and Oranges, as Patterson is more of a BORP-crush than a speedy God of OF defense-crush.
Patterson is fast, but other than that he doesn’t really fit into the same category as the traditional speedster types I’m known to love.
He was a ridiculously good prospect in the minors (.829 OPS and 22 HR’s in AA as a 20 year old? Yes, please), and his tools were off the charts.
He had two good seasons in ’03 and ’04 at 23 and 24 and looked he was on the verge of finally breaking out and then… POOP.
I guess I kept looking at his profile and thinking that the only way he could’ve failed so completely after such a promising start was that he’d been screwed up either because he was rushed or because of the Chicago coaches and that with the right coaching and opportunity there was the potential to pluck a super star out of AAAA limbo.
I still think he would’ve been a good gamble.
Not at the price I was willing to pay for him, of course, but at the price he ended up signing for, hell yes.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 14, 2010 1:00 AM CST up reply actions
You're kinda right
A .270 BA is unlikely. But as was mentioned below, his walk rate and climbed over the years. Maybe my .360 OBP is a touch high but he’ll be closer to that than .335 without a doubt.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Yah. I don't get how someone can think there'd be no doubt he's gonna post an OBP over .350.
Maybe if he was gonna get completely shielded from LHP’s, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen, and even then there’d be some doubts, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 14, 2010 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Not exactly what I said
I’m not saying there’s no doubt he goes above .350 but I’m sure he’ll be closer to .360 than .335.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Okay you said there's no doubt he's gonna post a .34751+ or better OBP rather than a .350+.
So I did take a little liberty… It was the tiniest of teeny tiny liberties, but I suppose I should refrain from complaining too vociferously about you picking my nits, seeing as how this whole difression started when Philip Kid, the 3rd and I started picking yours.
That said… my point stands.
There absolutely IS doubt about that. IS. IS. IS. I love the Adrian Borbonbot, but there just is a doubt that he’s gonna post an OBP that high this year. IS IS IS.
IS!
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 14, 2010 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions
It's almost exactly what you said.
You said that, “without a doubt,” he will post an OBP closer to .360 than .335. That means you think there is no question Julio Borbon will have at least a .348 OBP in his first full season in the Majors.
I can’t believe you don’t think there’s doubt.
Are you guys really going to pick on a little hyperbole in a post?
If I read someone saying “so and so will happen without a doubt”, I don’t take that too mean that they think there is absolutely no chance in hell that it won’t happen.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
But what I originally said was that there is very much doubt.
And there is.
Dirk then said “I don’t get how someone can think there’d be no doubt he’s gonna post an OBP over .350,” and Wyo said that’s not what he said, which it pretty much was.
I don’t think it’s picking nits. I think it’s saying that there is doubt he will OBP .348.
meh
I just think too much is made over Wyo pretty much just feeling confident in his prediction that Borbon will have a .350-.360 OBP.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I pretty much came out and said we were picking nits.
In fact I said it exactly.
I don’t think anyone was being mean. Certainly that was not the intent.
Someone made a comment and I made a comment on the validity of that comment as I saw it.
Isn’t that what baseball talk is all about?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 16, 2010 12:07 AM CDT up reply actions
.335 is harsh?
That’s an average OBP at a position of average offensive output. From a rookie, that’s far from harsh.
* Mmm... picking nits... *
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 12, 2010 11:23 PM CST up reply actions
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