2009 community projections vs reality
by gossamer on Mar 12, 2010 6:19 PM CST
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still want ben/adam/whoever to post the results. but for now i can do 1 or 2 at a time. for community projections i am using simple average (mean) and will not adjust ERA/AVG/OBP/SLG based on individual projected ab/ip. first i will do matt harrison, probably do another tonight. i will post that i updated at the bottom of the thread and then post the results in the initial post. if you want this toward the top, rec it so it won't disappear after a day. if not, then i will know not to waste my time. feel free to do some yourself. just search "community projection". i won't be able to do any saturday or sunday...but should be able to pick this back up monday.
reality: 4 wins/ 63.1 IP/ 34 K / 6.11 ERA
community (including the 22/200/130/2.79 from miles) 11 wins/156 IP/ 103 K/ 4.92 ERA
verdict: way off
person that got the closest: NorCalRangersfan who projected 4/65/30/6.65
reality: 7 wins/ 97 IP/ 65 K / 4.62 ERA
community : 11 wins/ 147 IP/ 106 K / 4.56 ERA
verdict: off, but reasonable. injuries (surprised?) didn't get him the IP and Wins, but his ERA was close, and his K's per inning were close.
person that got the closest: sprite 7/110/67/4.69
will use his season total including dodgers stats for this
reality: 12 wins/ 147 IP / 97 K / 4.46 ERA
community: 14 wins/ 214 IP / 147 K / 4.57 ERA
verdict: close. between rangers refusing to play him and his little wait before becoming a dodger, he missed out on some games. was pretty easy to project because we know what he is. the K rate is right there, his wins are right there and era are right there.
person that got the closest: Chase Irwin 13/150/110/4.40
reality: 13 wins/ 198 IP/ 123 K / 3.67 ERA
community: 13 wins / 178 IP / 132 K / 4.75 ERA
verdict: off. we were a little down on him based on 2008. his first part of the 2009 season really carried his era (from what i remember). he didn't K as much as we projected either. we got the wins though!
person who got the closest: Martijn1309 14/175/125/3.85
reality: 541 PA / .267/.329/.373
community: 490/.252/.306/.340
verdict: way off. he performed much better than we anticipated at the plate. and on the field too.
person who got the closest: Conjunction: 550/255/.330/.360
reality: 310 PA / .233/.290/.371
community: 442 /.278/.351/.460
verdict: really big disapointment
person who got the closest: philkid3 360/.240/.320/.410
reality: 493 PA / .269 / .338 / .447
community: 430 PA / .276 / .328 / .454 (made adjustment to kinslerhomer's projection, he had the rare feat of an avg higher than obp. i assume his .231 obp should be .331)
verdict: almost exact. he had more plate appearances than we had hope for, but "he is who we thought he was". we projected an ops of .782 and he gave us .785.
person who got the closest: gossamer 456/.273/.328/.443
reality: 515 PA / .260 / .332 / .524
community: 527 PA / .278 / .342 / .509
verdict: decently close. ops projected was .851, we got .856. we were pretty high on his 2008 performance, and he was only off a little. while he didn't hit for average or get on base quite as often as we expected, he made up for it with a little more pop.
person who got the closest: egriffey 440/.267/.330/.525
reality: 365 PA / .268 / .315 / .426
community: 642 PA / .304 / .374 / .558
verdict: sea salt (j/k...see salty)
person who got the closest: Spadedsnake 415 / .297 / .348 / .459
reality: 495 PA / .234 / .277 / .459
community: 483 PA / .287 / .347 / .497
verdict: way off. another disappointment. surprised that we actually had expectations for hank? guess he hit so well in those 2 injury plagued seasons we thought playing DH almost exclusively would keep him fresh (guess we didn't count on him playing 1B that much??)
person who got the closest: Randy Richardson 330 / .277 / .326 / .447
reality: 419 PA / .238 / .284 / .442
community: 622 PA / .276 / .334 / .540
verdict: another one that was way off, another disapointment. and it would have been off even more had he not turned it around in AAA to come back and have an outstanding september and august (his september line was .290/.330/.484). i imagine this year's projections will be somewhere between 2009's reality and his september line. maybe something like .270/.320/.450? unless a good spring and that last 5 weeks from last season gets us all hyped up again.
person who got the closest: badradiorules 545/.235/.310/.505
reality: 640 PA / .253 / .327 / .488
community: 641 PA / .306 / .375 / 543
verdict: way off. wouldn't necessarily call him as a player a disappointment. he seemingly improved with the glove and gave us a nice 30/30 season (career high in HR, SB, and 1 away from tying career high in Runs). but he certainly didn't hit where we had expected. we can blame most of this on the dismal month of july. the amazing months of april and august were...amazing, but certainly closer to the regular season numbers. we were right on with the plate appearances, which is hard to predict with ian who had never played more than 130 games.
person who got the closest: LiamP 575/.290/.350/.470
reality: 593 PA / .322 / .374 / .518
community: 664 PA / .298 / .349 / .425
verdict: another one way off. who expects mike young to miss games? (out of 123 projections, only 6 had him having less than 600 PA). highest batting average and obp since 2005. career best slugging. and playing 3rd instead of short means his bad defense doesn't hurt near as bad. definitely exceeded everybody's expectations (his .892 OPS is higher than any projection, one guy had .886, next highest was .856).
person who got the closest: SteveP 670 / .320 / .370 / .475
//////////////
real short summary
pitching: expectations weren't close to being met by harrison. mccarthy got bit by injury bug. padilla was close to right where he was predicted. millwood exceeded expectations
hitting: young and andrus exceeded expectations. cruz was close. murphy was almost exact. kinsler had a really really really bad month and didn't meet expectations. the rest of the hitters didn't meet expectations. of course had reason to think hammy would hit they way he did. salty was supposed to be a plus hitter and ended up being well below average. and other than homers, davis couldn't make any contact.
yeah, we are fans and optimists.
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That was uber close. Kudos NCRF
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Thanks.
Just for that, I’m reccing this bitch up!
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Mar 13, 2010 12:19 AM CST up reply actions
Kevin Millwood's 2009 xFIP: 4.78
I don’t think we were necessarily off for not seeing a flukey BABIP performance.
Was Andrus really much better in the field than we expected?
He was better than I expected ,but I felt like I was pretty pessimistic compared to the crowd.
Rec this peeps!
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 12, 2010 8:09 PM CST reply actions
HAHAHAHA!
I was actually just thinking today about how I was baffled by how high you all were on Salty, and brought my ex in to the discussion and she called me a moron for being so down on him. I didn’t go back and look at how close I was, though.
Sucks that the only predictions I ever nail are the gloomy ones. :(
Teagarden bandwagon!
All aboard!!!
(It’s just Spring Training, he’ll turn it around.)
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
He's not going to turn it around until he learns how to hit.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
Yeah, once upon a time I was pretty high on Teagarden.
Weirdly, I’m now higher on Salty. Because my expectations have lowered to “servicable” for what I want from our catcher.
I'm hoping servicable is what Tea can at least bring to the table.
His defense I think is moved forward and now for the hitting. It’s sounding like he is overmatched a lot of the times he’s at the plate. I’m really hoping he’ll get it squared away this spring. He’s still my guy, and I hate UT, so that’s saying something.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Tough to believe
Tea will ever hit enough to be serviceable.
I think the Rangers solution at Catcher may not be in the current organization.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I agree. But until they make a trade, I'm all for Teagarden.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Great Job!
Much better job than Ben does. I like the person closest part.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Thing I'd suggest
Is links to the original threads, so everyone can easily look back and see how they did.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
still,
its kind of fun
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I remember talking, I think with Atron, in the off season about how I felt Murphy was probably the easiest player on the team to project.
As far as a rate standpoint. Good to see there was some sense to that.
I'm stunned i was right on anything
especially Millwood….Hooray for improved defense and mediocre pitching!
Derek Holland-2011 AL Cy Young
Dude, keep up the great work
"Big whoop, wanna fight about it?"
by lost in space on Mar 14, 2010 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Mmmmmmmm
That coolaid was delicious last year.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
by WyoRanger on Mar 15, 2010 9:53 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
If you got the batting lines of Kinsler, Hamilton, Blalock, and Davis...
and you were to guess how many wins we would have had, what would you pick?
I’d probably go with 75 or so without having any clue as to how amazing the defense and pitching ended up being.
That was fantastic
Great job putting that all together.
Tom Grieve is my hero.
For shame Ben.
For shame.
Not mediocre. Right about average
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