Chris Davis Projections post
by WyoRanger on Mar 17, 2010 12:19 PM CDT
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Well, that thing's going to turn into a trainwreck if we don't have this post.
Let's see, 72 ABs, 5 infield singles, mismanagement, buried, JD, This Thing, etc., etc.
over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over
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Will I be the only poster who projects
an OPS below .800?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
I'm surprised you still think he gets nearly 500 PAs with that OPS.
No faith in Smoak and Ramirez to get any significant playing time this season if Davis struggles?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Maybe
Riddle me this – you keep saying how CJ is turning heads in ST and you were the first on that bus (which is bullshit). Yet you still think Davis will suck although he’s also had a great ST.
CJ sucked as a starter before, CD sucked last year. What’s the difference?
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
You honestly can't tell the difference between CJ getting his feet wet as a starter in 2005
one year removed from surgery and Chris Davis last year?
You treat both situations the same?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Is there that big of a difference
with C.J. gettin his feet wet and Davis. I mean he has only been in the majors a year and a half.
The snozberries taste like snozberries!!
by Chrom on Mar 18, 2010 1:43 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
CJ had 6 starts as a rookie
and was a year removed from surgery.
Davis has had more than 700 plate appearances in The Show which is a little more than a full season for most players.
A little more than a full season for a starting pitcher in The Show would be 35-40 starts.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
CJ sucked as a starter in the minors
Davis has over 1700 PA’s of OPS at .880 or higher, other than the 400 PA’s he had at the major league level last year. And I didn’t mention the PA’s he had at the end of last year.
so, you are basing a prediction of a sub .800 OPS for Davis on some 277 PA’s he had at the beginning of 2009 and discounting the rest.
yeah, whatever.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
WyoRanger
You forgot to mention -
“led the Rangers in hitting and RBI after coming back”
“changed his swing plane to get more backspin”
“suddenly found it with late season at bat v David Price”
“better relationship with new hitting coach”
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
I'll throw those up there after lunch
Gotta go get some corned beef and cabbage.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
I'm drinking the Chris Davis kool-aid
He’s a smart player who knows what he needs to work on and always has worked to fix his weaknesses. He’s also no longer letting his head get in his way and its showed this ST. He’s saying the right things, doing the right things, and has absolutely amazing power.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
That's the thing.
The raw power really is close to unique. Scouts are frothing at the mouth over Jason Heyward (and rightfully so), but the ball comes off Davis’ bat the same way. If he just increases his contact rate moderately, he’s going to be a serviceable 1B for a contending team.
Unfortunately
I think I’d rather have a player with lesser power with a better contact rate. I definitely agree he has huge power, but then, so did Incaviglia.
Power comes with age. I’m not sure strike zone judgement and contact get that much better.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
They can if the player wants to work on it
And Davis is thought to have true 80 power. Not many others have that kind of power.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Incaviglia
could hit the ball through the fence. Not sure it helped his career much.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Hey
the guy spent 12 years in the majors and THEN another 4 years in the minors. I don’t think he’s complaining much. He was no HOFer, but you could do worse.
He also cut his strikeout rate from 30% his first 3 years to below 25% later in his career.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
Unfortunately
CD profiles as Inky with less walks, and Inky ended up with a career 758OPS for a COF/DH, which is nothing to get excited about.
Personally, I think all CD does is keep the seat warm til Smoak is ready.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I noticed.
I actually went to your post to see if you copied me from the future again. You did not.
I still feel like I’m too optimistic. Same as last year, I’m telling myself nothing about Davis looks to me like someone who can hack it in the Majors, but everyone here is so gosh darn optimistic I decide to fudge a little bit to make him at least solid.
I think I'd go
250/305/500
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
This is a funny fanpost, WyoRanger
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
350/.240/.285/.450
I’m obviously not optimistic; though those numbers are a very slight improvement over last year.
Smoak or a trade fills 1b by the All Star Break
Go Rice Owls!
I hope he has a good year
so we can trade him, but I think he is gonna struggle with the strike zone.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I too hope he has a good year
but his weaknesses are too glaring for major league pitching to miss. Best case scenario – he’s good in April and May, but Smoak forces his way into the picture, and the Rangers get a good offer for Davis. Because Davis, at minimum, is always going to be an extremely streaky hitter.
Go Rice Owls!
Yep
I think he could smack a lot of mistakes a long way in the minors, but I doubt he sees as many mistakes in the majors.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Is he struggling right now?
I know ST is a joke when it comes to what measures a players strengths and weaknesses, but seriously what do you see right now that would make me feel like he is gonna be a train wreck by the ASB.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
So
a few week hot streak from a streaky player has completely changed your mind?
I’d need to see much more given his minor and major league history of Ks.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
but it seems like the k's are the only problem at this point right?
This can be fixed. Cruz seemed to figure it out. Even though the problem was slightly different with him, many were ready to write him off after 3 years and 1 good season. Now everyone is giddy over him. Davis shows some incredible promise for the future in a half a season and after 1 year he slumps. And just because his minor league stats show something different people are ready to write him off.
I see it as give him a chance. We gave Cruz a chance and look what he has become. An allstar RF. Davis’ defense is above average and so is his bat if he can limit his K problem. So really I dont buy the whole his “history of Ks” argument.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Saying K's are his only problem
is like saying that women are Tiger Woods’ only problem
Go Rice Owls!
I think you
underestimate how tough it is to fix strike zone judgement. Ive seen many hitters who were completely unable to fix strike zone judgement. There is a reason I think a good batting eye is a more important skill than power.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Yep
while there may be examples of guys who improve their K rate, you don’t see many examples of players with high K’s and low BB’s who don’t improve. Of course, that is because they don’t stay in the game. High K, low BB players are generally selected against early on in their careers. That Davis hasn’t been is either testament to how good he is when he doesn’t K, or that he has been relatively lucky so far.
Go Rice Owls!
AJM,
Do you post your projection in the thread at all? If you do I didnt look, but can you post it on the front page or at least in the post. Im very crious to see your projections.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
I want CD to succeed in the worst of ways...
..but I just don’t think he’s gonna do it.
Mark this post and throw it in my fat face if he blows up in 2010.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 17, 2010 4:07 PM CDT reply actions
Done. And will do.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Kinda like Billy Blazejowski threw his complimentary drink
in their fat faces after he got caught counting cards?
“I’m too good. They barred me.”
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
I bet Mike E has your answer
"Big whoop, wanna fight about it?"
by lost in space on Mar 17, 2010 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
If he plays the full season, I'm predicting something around a .260/.320/.500 line
However, I have a feeling that if he has another lousy first half, we might see Smoak taking over midseason, kinda like CD himself did back in 2008.
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
I think he does just enough...
to keep his job this year.
Smoak is comin’ quick though.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
My predicted line was
637/.315/.367/.612
It just came out of my head, but it translates to 185 hits, 49 walks, 33 doubles, 2 triples, and 46 homers. all easily attainable.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
This is CD's discussion thread, not Hanley's.
Honest mistake, it could happen to anyone.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
by AceJC on Mar 18, 2010 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If homeboy throws this up then we're going all the way.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 19, 2010 3:43 AM CDT up reply actions
iblum
voted most likely to die of a crack overdose.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I'm pretty sure this is sarcasm, right?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
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