Breaking Down Borbon
Excellent piece from Kevin Goldstein for BP subscribers.
"The question really revolves around plate discipline, as leadoff men are expected to work the count and reach base via the walk as well to boost their on-base percentage. For many, the baseline here is a 10% walk rate -- that is, if a player has 500 at-bats, one wants to see a minimum of 50 walks. Borbon's career minor league rate is just 6.6%, although there has been some progress including an 8.1% mark at Triple-A, followed by a shockingly good 9.6% rate with Texas. If this is real progress, it spells great things for the Rangers' chances in the American League West. "
almost 2 years ago
ramjam36
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just a question
not trying to be smart.
should that be 500 at bats, or 500 plate appearances?
or…
500 ab + 50 walks = 550 PA’s (not counting, sacrifices, etc…)
so would it be more like 9% of plate appearance should be a walk?
600 ab + 60 walks = 660 = 9% walks
I always get confused by this as well.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
baseball-reference uses plate appearances to compute BB%.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
FWIW, in ST his walk rate is 5%.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Arbitrary number
Who cares as long as he’s getting on base some way and is working the count? I don’t want to see him never taking a walk, but whether he does it 8, 10, or 12 percent of the time doesn’t make any difference to me as long as he hits and runs like the devil.
Well
I think Goldstein’s point is that we have a pretty good handle on what Borbon is going to hit - he’ll probably be a guy around .290.310. Thus, the question becomes, what is his walk rate going to be — is it going to be enough for him to be a quality leadoff hitter?
He’s not arguing walks for the sake of arguing walks, but saying, the walk issue is the unknown part of Borbon’s OBP projection.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 19, 2010 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah
Since he’s young and everything and still has time to grow, if he hits .310 I’m not going to be disappointed in the least if he walks only 8 percent of the time. I know I have an archaic view of things compared to a lot of you guys, but the times he does get on base he’s going to drive the other team nuts and that’s what counts to me. Of course, the more he can do that, the better. But at this stage of his career he doesn’t have to walk a shit ton to be a quality leadoff hitter in my opinion. For example you could put Player X at lead off who gets on base a little more often at maybe a rate of 10 or 11 percent or whatever, but if he doesn’t have Borbon’s speed it’s a wash, at best. That’s what I think anyway.
by Black Francis on Mar 19, 2010 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
x
if he hits .310 I’m not going to be disappointed in the least if he walks only 8 percent of the time.
I’d be ecstatic if he accomplished that playing everyday this year.
by Randy Richardson on Mar 19, 2010 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions
And pretty surprised
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 19, 2010 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions
What was your predicted slash line for the Borbonic plague this year, Blogamemnon?
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 19, 2010 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions
BB is awesome
Never watch MM.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
I'm gonna start with BB this season.
Watched the Pilot today. hopefully can catch a few more episodes before the new season starts
It's a crazy, creepy, uncomfortable ride
Enjoy.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Definitely Breaking Bad
Mad Men is excellent; but Breaking Bad is better. Lots of reruns on this w/e before season premeire tonight.
Cranston and Aaron Paul are as good of an acting duo as any on TV. Their dynamic frequently reminds me of the type of chemistry and interplay you saw w/ Gandolfini and Imperioli, god bless em. And fucking A if Bod Odenkirk isn’t pitch perfect as a sleazy defense attorney.
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 20, 2010 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm gonna give this a whirl tonight.
stick it.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 21, 2010 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Well?
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
by Brian Thomas on Mar 19, 2010 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions
maybe simplistic
but i don’t care as much for walk % as much as i do about avg and obp%
guess it’s true that with no person on base, working a walk would typically take up more pitches than getting a single and be just as valuable but…
if you get an obp% of like .350 or better on top of being able to steal bases, i’m probably happy with that. that said, unless he hits like .315 he’ll have to walk quite a bit to get that obp that high. let’s hope hope hope he’s rickey henderson (sans power of course).
So, you do care about walk %.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Thinking of Borbon as an elite leadoff hitter....
gets my sports wiener throbbing…..
by death of the cool on Mar 19, 2010 1:25 PM CDT reply actions
Not sure we needed the weiner part.
I am Jurickson Profar son of judeska and chesmond.. And I was born ready! ready to play baseball!!- Jurickson Profar 2/15/2010
by Aquaman, Esq. on Mar 19, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
While his range isn’t an issue, his arm is. We’re not talking Johnny Damon noodle-like arm strength, but we’re not talking much better either. It’s a liability, but also a common one for players like Borbon. The good news here is that Texas couldn’t find a better tutor than Gary Pettis, who despite his offensive shortcomings as a player, is arguably the best defensive outfielder of his generation.
Borbons arm
I think last night we all saw how he can make up for his below average arm strength. He threw out a very fast runner by quite a bit by getting rid of the ball quickly and being accurate with the throw.
Hes not gonna be throwing guys out at home plate on sac flies but if he can keep other teams from going 1st to 3rd thats a huge help.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Lets hope he defers to Cruz
and Hamilton whenever possible on some of those sac flies.
Vladimir Guererro - 2010 AL MVP
That's what I'm thinking.
But it’s tough for your centerfielder to defer. He’s supposed to be QBing out there. It’ll be tough for him to go “Ok Cruz, you get this.” It’s just so much easier for your CF to be able to call off everyone.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Borbon was only about 50 feet behind 2nd base when he made the throw
on a runner going from 1st to 3rd. It was an accurate, but from that shallow it should have been.
More than that, says TotalZone.
I’d take this from Borbon. Though I believe one of the things TZ isn’t able to quantify well is outfield arms, but still.
His arm
On The Ticket the other day, Mike Bacsik said Borbon had the worst arm of any OF he had ever seen after seeing him at ST.
by LoneStarBallUser on Mar 19, 2010 6:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, now that the most trusted baseball expert in all of DFW has weighed in, that's settled
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
I don't know how you can watch him
and not think it’s fairly atrocious. I think Frankie the Cat had a stronger arm
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
So I saw the throw last night....you guys are telling me that Damon's arm was WORSE than that?
unpossible.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Mar 19, 2010 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not willing to bet it on such a small sample size.
But Damon’s arm was pretty pathetic. He was also an awesome baseball player, plus arm was just not a skill of his.
From the 2nd row behind the Rangers' dugout last night, Borbon's bunt was a thing of beauty
I know how some of the LSB community views bunts in general, but Borbon’s bunts are no wasted-out sacrifices. It’s a legit and dangerous tool that the club needs to exploit.
Also, watching him going in and out of the dugout and fooling around before the game, he comes across as a charismatic, extremely likeable guy.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
You're there?
That bunt was faboo, no doubt about that. And then, the nice grooved FB to the next hitter…I could see that happening a bunch this year.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Elvis Andrus put up a 7.4% walk rate as a rookie at a much more offensively valuable position.
He’s not very good, though. If he was anyone else he would have potential to be a quality lead-off hitter.
Much more
offensively valuable position?
Seems like CF and SS are normally pretty much a coin flip. If anything my money is on CFs outproducing SSs offensively.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Wait, are you serious?
No no no no no. The expected output from a shortstop is quite a bit lower than a center fielder. CF an above average position; shortstop is better only than catcher.
CFs put up a .269 EqA last year and a .270 in 2008. SSs put up a .258 last year and .257 the year before. An average hitter (for the league) with average defense (for the position) is a below average player, while an average hitter with average defense at shorstop is an above average player.
Another way to represent it: FanGraphs’ positional adjustment for Borbon was -3.1 runs last year, which would rate at -9.8 given the same number of games as Andrus. Andrus’s adjustment was +6.4 runs.
Ah, when you say more
offensively valuable, I assumed you meant the position more likely to produce offensively.
For instance, I expect a 1B to produce much more than a SS.
I misunderstood.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Didn't read the last sentence right.
No, it’s not a coinflip, but offense is more valuable at shortstop BECAUSE CFs outproduce SSs. Offense is more rare, and thus more valuable, at the more difficult positions on the defensive spectrum.
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