Rob Neyer is picking the Rangers in the A.L. West
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 31, 2010 9:03 PM CDT
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PrintSo, with the season kicking off Sunday night, we are going to start seeing predictions come rolling in, and Rob Neyer says he is taking the Rangers in the A.L. West this year. Neyer's reasoning is that, while they'll be lucky to win 90 games, so will either of the other three A.L. West teams, and he says the numbers keep coming back to the Rangers having the best shot of doing that.
He mentions his prediction as part of a post urging the Rangers to grab Mike Lowell, with the idea that he would platoon with Chris Davis at first base and shore up what appears to be the Rangers' biggest potential problem in the everyday lineup.
I go back and forth about this...part of me says, the Rangers are going for it this year, and Chris Davis is too big of a wild card to go out there without some insurance. At the very least, I figure, platoon him...it can't be that hard to find someone to play first base and mash lefties, right?
On the other hand, I think...before last year, Davis didn't exhibit big splits. Of course, last year, he was horrible against lefties (he actually post an OPS above 800, albeit barely, against righties)...but at the same time, if we have a repeat of 2009 with Davis, then Justin Smoak is going to be up. Or Mitch Moreland,.
In any case, the Rangers supposedly are still cool on Lowell, and while Neyer suggests that $3 million shouldn't stand in the way of acquiring Lowell, by all accounts, the Rangers simply don't have $3 million to spend until the ownership change goes through. So I don't think Lowell is coming here.
That said...it is nice to see a national writer pick the Rangers this year. Texas appeared, at one point, to be the hip pick in the West, but as Neyer notes, Seattle is now the trendy pick. The brilliance of the Seattle front office, I imagine, is going to be worth 5-7 wins at least...
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Oh shit...
I forgot the carry the 1.
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Jack Z...
is the next George Brett?!
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Does that make...
Jon Daniels the next David Clyde?
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Jon Daniels is the next Perez.
And Mr. Perez is the next JD.
I bet that blew your mind.
"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz
Not at all
JD is the next Neftali Perez.
Martin Perez is the next JD.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
You know, for some reason I'm feeling the most apathetic about this team I have all winter.
Then again, I look at all the other division rivals and feel the same way.
Ron Washington is: The Bad Manager - Port of Call New Orleans
That's just the way...
God made you, lsJ.
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm coming out of my apathy.
Davis seems to be on an uptick since the day off. Colby, Feldman and CJ seem like they’re throwing real well. O’Day seems to be back in the fold. We found a defensive wiz UIF who can spell Kinz until he’s ready. Borbon just keeps Borboning upward and onward. Hammy seems like the good old Beasticon Hammy. Nellie and Vladdy are just gonna thwack the cover off the ball. Salty even seems to be back fit and maybe hitting decent. I think we’re as ready as we’re gonna be for opening day.
by shroomer on Mar 31, 2010 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
Maybe I’m just bracing for the annual April false start, I dunno.
I am more optimistic now than I was a couple weeks ago on a lot of individual players (CJ, Feliz, Colbyashi Hamilton) but for some reason that hasn’t translated into optimism for the team overall. Kinsler being out, and our bullpen looking shaky aren’t very encouraging.
Ron Washington is: The Bad Manager - Port of Call New Orleans
I kind of want the Rangers to win...
not just because I enjoy them, but just to hear your laughter once more.
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm optimistic.
But the error bars on our rotation are immense.
from smallest to largest.
1) Feldman. He can be anything from a LAIE to some kind of Roy Halladay clone. From April 25th (when he entered the rotation) through September 19th (his last start before the team fell out of contention) he was 17-5 with an ERA of 3.28, 147 hits in 170 innings.
2) Harden. I put him next because there’s really only two options here. either he’ll stay healthy and win a lot of games with a very low ERA, or he won’t stay healthy and not win a whole bunch of games but still have a very low ERA.
3) Lewis. Complete wild card, but you know he’s at least going to stay healthy. He could have an ERA below 3 or above 5, you just don’t know.
4) Wilson. Coming from the pen, we don’t know how much stamina he’s going to have, will he be able to retain things into august and september pitching every 5th day. He’s been healthy, but he’s going to be asked to pitch a lot more than before. Plus, while the stuff is there, what happens when he’s asked to pitch through the order a third time?
5) Harrison. uncertain effectiveness, check. Coming off major surgery, check. unexplained uptick in velocity, check.
thank goodness we still have 3 more starters waiting in the wings with McCarthy, Holland and Hunter.
The pen should be fine though. Franky’s been healthy, Oliver has been great. Feliz showed he can still blow batters away, O’Day is getting healthier, and who really worries about your 5th and 6th relievers, so whether its Nippert and Mathis or Eyre or Strop or Moscoso or whoever, that’s not going to hurt us.
And of course, our starters on offense are all still ok, other than Kinsler. He seems to be getting his injury out of the way early this year.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
Is the emphasis on
Bor or bon because if its bon, that sounds dirty
it's a synonym
for Ellsburying
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Kind of how I feel about it
I don’t love the makeup of the Rangers, but when I look across the division, none of the competition frightens me.
A good hot streak by any of the teams is probably enough to sew things up.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Wes Bankston?
Hard to take Neyer seriously when he doesn’t even know one of the in house options is Matt Brown.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
Most Rangers fans don't know...
…one of the in-house options is Matt Brown.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 31, 2010 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions
?
That’s the standard you’re holding Neyer to?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Mar 31, 2010 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I think he just wanted to make a Wes Bankston crack...
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions
He just updated the post...
…to mention Brown and Mad Max.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 31, 2010 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Joaquin Arias
AL MVP?
She say she are the manager.
by rockin_rangers on Mar 31, 2010 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Were you...
the “friend” whom pointed Max and Brown out?
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll bet
Wes Bankston crack is pretty poorly cut.
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
That's nice, I guess
I respect Neyer’s opinion, so at least there’s that.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
When are we doing our season predictions thread?
Last week I had the Rangers at 93-94 wins. Right now I am thinking 90-91. Anything lower and they won’t win the AL West.
Vladimir Guererro - 2010 AL MVP
C.J. Wilson - 2010 AL Cy Young
I'm with ya
I think the West will be won with 90-92 wins this year, and the Rangers are gonna be the ones to do it.
She say she are the manager.
by rockin_rangers on Mar 31, 2010 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions
would Ron then get 100x the cocaine?!
She say she are the manager.
by rockin_rangers on Mar 31, 2010 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I think
you underestimate how expensive it is to secure 100X more cocaine.
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
I'm picking 85-87 and winning the west.
I don’t necessarily think it will take 87 to win it, but I think the Rangers the most likely team in the division to get the most wins.
In other words, I do think there’s a good chance the winner tops 90 wins, but I don’t think any team is likely to.
Look at it this way.
If you pick every team based on their likely records and every division based on likely order, you’ll be more accurate than if you try and adjust for the fact that their will be outliers by trying to nail those outliers.
I have a serious M's related question...
Now, I know I’m not looking through a set of LL Stat-colored Rosy Dr. Zoinks Fun Glasses right now, but it seems strange to me, if the team is “going for it,” to put Jose Lopez at third and Figgins at second if it has anything at all to do with shopping Lopez by hiding his deficiencies.
Practically the only guy worthy of replacing Adrian Beltre’s otherworldly defense at third base is Chone Figgins. With Chone at third they might have even seen a small improvement as Chone was probably marginally better there last season. So, they would still be getting nearly the same, if not better production, because they already know what they’re getting from Lopez at second.
However, moving Lopez to third is going to be an unequivocal downgrade at the position over last year and what Figgins can produce there. Figgins will be an improvement at second over what Lopez would give you there, no doubt, but he isn’t as good at second as he is at third. Is second just a higher priority for them to shore up? It just seems like a weird move that will probably even out in the end but I’m just curious as to why they’d risk it when it has a better chance of not working out at all for preventing runs which is what that team is entirely built on.
What’s up will all of that?
by ghostofErikThompson on Mar 31, 2010 9:30 PM CDT reply actions
I wondered that too
Because third base is literally the only position Figgins has a positive UZR/150 at for his career.
Granted, it’s also really been his only regular position in his career, and maybe he’s a better defender now than he used to be. But that could also be a strike against him moving to second base, as he’s never played more than 40 games there in a season and that was way back in 2005.
Ron Washington is: The Bad Manager - Port of Call New Orleans
Is a 0 UZR secondbaseman
more valuable then a 0 UZR thirdbaseman?
Vladimir Guererro - 2010 AL MVP
C.J. Wilson - 2010 AL Cy Young
So Basically,
The org isn’t a big fan of Jose Lopez at 2B and the market wasn’t there for him to be traded.
And they have this idea that Chone Figgins has the range advantage over Lopez to play 2nd base while Lopez has the arm advantage to play 3rd base. What was initially set as an experiment has now gone final since both players have bought into the change.
There are people who can explain this better but this is what I gather from this. Will it work? Your guess is as good as mine.
Thank you...
for the serious answer to my serious question. I guess we’ll see how it goes.
by ghostofErikThompson on Apr 1, 2010 1:22 AM CDT up reply actions
I think it's an effort to get more Fantasy Baseball Fans
to draft Mariners because of their multi-positional eligibility.
The M's front office put a lot of stock in range, and range is more important at second than third.
Also, Lopez seems to be getting bigger each year and the organisation believe his body type is more suited to third base going forward, whereas Figgins has better range than Lopez for getting into the hole.
Plus, with Wilson playing SS this should give Lopez a bit more support with balls hit to his left than, say, if Yuni was there.
There are bound to be problems with this move, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Lopez commit a tonne of errors. However, this is a move looking to the long term, and the reality is that Lopez probably only had one more season playing a passable 2B anyway, so best to make the move now rather than banking on Ackley joining the big club in 2011.
by EnglishMariner on Apr 1, 2010 3:51 AM CDT up reply actions
"a tonne of errors"
Woah, you really are a Brit…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Heard on the radio
I was listening to XM and heard an interview with a Mariners Scout (Fusco or something). He was talking specifically about the switch of Figgins and Lopez and said that it was done because they felt that Figgins’ athleticism would be more useful at second and that Lopez’ quickness would play better at third. Since they tried it in spring training, both players feel much more comfortable at their new positions and thats the way its going to stay.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
CD
Is he someone that needs regular rest? Should he only play ~130 games? I am starting to warm up to the Lowell idea. Maybe rest CD against tough LHP and before or after an off day. If he does struggle then give more playing time to Lowell.
Vladimir Guererro - 2010 AL MVP
C.J. Wilson - 2010 AL Cy Young
Everyone boo this man. BOO HIM.
Davis is young and vibrant. The only rest he should need, especially with him being a first baseman, is for mental days. It’s not like he’s in the OF or catching. The LHP thing I can see, but his minor numbers show that when he’s hitting, he can usually hit LHP as well as RHP. Hopefully he will be hitting this year.
I’m not trying to jump on you or anything, I’m just really against trotting out the corpse that is Mike Lowell on to the field.
"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz
I think he may have a point
But I think its all mental. Davis seems to me to be streaky. So, you rest him when he’s not doing well, especially against a tough lefty. When he’s going great, you ride him as long as possible.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
Man, that was weird
The snozberries taste like snozberries!!
by Chrom on Apr 1, 2010 1:43 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Davis needs to be platooned
in that ideally you have one guy fill in for Davis against lefties. And on other days, you have another player fill in for Davis against righties
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Mar 31, 2010 11:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wow
I’m surprised at how many writers are picking the Rangers. It breaks my heart, but I did not feel confident picking my boys this season. I went with the “trendy” pick. I don’t know. I hope I’m wrong on most of my picks.
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
I'm an Andrus-caliber catch. :-)
We are the trendy pick
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
I meant
I picked Seattle.
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
I'm an Andrus-caliber catch. :-)
by The Best Micah on Apr 1, 2010 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Boo!!!
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Trust me, Rodney
I hope I’m wrong. The thought of Milton Bradley in the playoffs makes me want to throw up.
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
I'm an Andrus-caliber catch. :-)
by The Best Micah on Apr 1, 2010 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Seattle is the trendy favorites
The Rangers are the trendy darkhorses.
Ron Washington is: The Bad Manager - Port of Call New Orleans
by LSJ on Apr 1, 2010 1:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Obviously he's been deemed replaceable by Seattle...
but is Garko really that big of a drop in production from Lowell?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
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