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It is far more likely this team wins 92 games than the 81 that CAIRO predicts
But as for PECOTA and CHONE – of course predicting 86 or so wins is a “better prediction” for number of expected wins. That doesn’t really tell us anything about the variance of expected wins though – and I’m pretty certain this club has an unusually high variance – anything between 81 to 95 wouldn’t surprise me.
Nolan’s prediction of 92 wins is perfectly valid. He’s the senior exec of the club, he’s going to be a little ambitious. And the number is a realistic possibility.
Go Rice Owls!
Looking at the projection systems again
PECOTA projects 4 teams in baseball to have 90-95 wins with 2 of those at 90 wins. CHONE has the Yanks at 99 wins with the Cards and Red Sox at 91 and 93 wins respectively. I don’t know about CAIRO, but its probably similar.. Its in these system’s nature to not many teams as that far above .500 even though each league is going to have at least 3 90 win teams.
When 2 of the projection systems say we are going to be 1st in the division and the other says we’ll be in second, I don’t think expecting at least a 90 win team is out of the question, even looking at where the projection systems put us. Its silly to say that Nolan’s prediction is out of the question when you are completely fine with predicting the Rangers to win the division. Winning an AL division means you’re going to likely need 90 wins.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
"Winning an AL division means you’re going to likely need 90 wins"
Yep.
If someone said to me “The 2010 Rangers win 87 games. I’ll give you even money on whether they win the division” Do you make the bet? I don’t – Easily less than a 50% chance that 87 wins will be enough
Go Rice Owls!
PECOTA could actually be used, if someone had the time, ti apply the range of variance.
That would be interesting to see.
I placed a future bet at 84.5 wins...
Here’s hoping Nolan is close to right.
"Support the Dutch Oven"
Hard to not get rediculously giddy when you hear,
“absolutely dominant, pretty solid, a good deal of room for improvement, arguably the best pitcher in Japan, the raw stuff to keep up with practically any pitcher in the game”…all in one paragraph about our starting rotation.
Didn't CHONE project 72 wins for the Rangers last year?
Yeeeaah, so lets keep on referring to BS projection programs. I’d like to see the how well those lame prediction have fared over the decade. I’m guessing they miss by a tremendous average.
To be fair, they weren't very accurate last year.
But yeah, I’m guessing Tex34 doesn’t have any idea what he’s talking about.
You should read Vegas Watch then.
Here you can see how it went in its history, up against a great many other sources. That does not include 2009, where, as pointed out above, it was relatively awful, worse than just about everything they listed.
Where are your projections from the past decade that we can compare them to?
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[crickets]
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Huh?
Happy to have any conversation about this, just not sure where you’re going…
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A casual Rangers fan friend asked for my "expert" opinion on the wins number
He and another buddy have a yearly bet where his buddy sets the wins total and my friend takes the over-under.
The over-under is 88, I told him to take the over.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Your friend's buddy has a shitty deal
He and another buddy have a yearly bet where his buddy sets the wins total and my friend takes the over-under.
Last man to go in that scenario has an advantage.
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
I think that the Rangers have one of the more high-upside, high-risk rosters in the game
The rotation COULD be horrifying with Harden, Lewis, Feldman, Feliz and Holland, but then again, none of those guys has exactly been consistent at the ML level, in terms of both production and health.
But it could very well fall apart too, and while the team has some depth, few guys can match the raw stuff of Feliz or Harden.
I like that team a lot, and I think that they’ve had a pretty solid offseason. I think that a baseline in the 84-86 win range seems pretty fair for Texas, considering the wide variety of results you could see that roster producing. Which means that they could quite easily win 92 games, and just as easily they could win 77 or 78 games.
It certainly helps Texas’ case that they should have a decent deal of flexibility this season to make in-season acquisitions if possible.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
At that point though
you’re not projecting for accuracy, but just making a projection to try and not be too wrong. That’s my issue with a lot of these projection systems and one I admittedly don’t know how they could fix since I’m just not too clear on how they get these results. Like I said above, having only a few teams projecting to win over 90 games is just wrong and that seems to be the case each year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
These aren't really outliers
Each year, projection systems seem to take the average of x number of trials, but when you have a player or team that has a 75% chance of being really good or really bad, you’re going to end up with a poor projection. Using the CHONE Hamilton projection as an example that I believe we’ve talked about before too, is he more likely going to put up a .349 wOBA or is he more likely to repeat his 2009 or 2008? The projection system takes a look at what he’s done and pretty much says he’s going to be the near average of those 2 seasons. That just doesn’t seem like much of an accurate projection rather than being a decent average of what he could do with a large standard deviation.
As far as these team projections go, they have the same basic problem. There are only a few teams over the 90 win mark and a few below the 70 win mark. CHONE only has the Blue Jays under 70 wins (at 68) with no other team having fewer than 73/74 wins. Even looking at adjusted standings from recent years will show that one team being under 70 wins (and only by 2 wins) is rarely the case.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I'm so happy. Sniffle.
…the Rangers have a pitching staff that could potentially keep up with anyone in that division.
The Ticket is still running the “But when are they going to get some pitching in here?!” promo line. Idiots.
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