Nelson Cruz Community Projections Discussion Thread
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whoa Nellie
30/30 here we come! His walk up music should be “Who Let the Dogs Out” because after this season nobody will saying he was ever in Ron’s doghouse.
Vladimir Guererro - 2010 AL MVP
Will Ben have the previous projections posted tonight?
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
by this weekend, I've heard.
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
ElectricOkra.com
I think the same time
Adam posts the next edition of top 50 Rangers of all time.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I used Juan's career numbers
Granted, Juan had something extra going for him (hint – it’s injected).
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Any idea how AJM is coming up with the order here?
Young
Kinsler
Cruz
"Big whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Davis will have the most comments
on his discussion thread.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
He has the greatest difference
between what he did last year (as bad as it can get, right?)
and his potential
Ha,
very nice sir!!
"Big whoop, wanna fight about it?"
by lost in space on Mar 9, 2010 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
650/.290/.360/.530, 35 homers, 25 steals. *** RF, uzr/150 of +12.
With the Cowardly Cattleman being reigned in by the new owner, JD should be free to ensure Nelly gets more consistent PT this year.
I see big things from Nelly this season.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Yeah...
that’s pretty close to what I have him at too.
I think/hope this is going to be a big year for Cruz.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Thats alot of at bats given where he will be in the batting order
he would have to play damn near all 162 games to get that many. And hes not gonna play all 162 games
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Whatever broseph.
If you truly believed that he’ll put up those numbers, there’s no way he’d be on the trading block.
Using the Community Projections for trade posturing…shame on you Huntressa.
by LiamP on Mar 8, 2010 8:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
And, to be fair, are those numbers all that crazy?
I admit they’re probably his 90-95% projections, but the dude did hit 33 HR’s and steal 20 bases in only 515 PA’s last year.
I think the BABIP will come up a bit from the .278 from last year, giving him a bit of a bump in BA, and the homers and steals should be up a tick just from an increase in PA’s, imo.
Or so I hope anyhow.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
The plate appearances and maybe average
…seem a bit crazy. The only way Nelly sees that many plate appearances is if Josh gets hurt and Murphy’s Grit gets most of his PA’s this year in LF.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 9, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
After re-looking at the number the BA seems a bit high... .280/.350/.530 is prolly more in line.
His BABIP was really low last year, but digging a little deeper I think he hits so many flyballs that it prolly won’t ever come up too far.
.280 isn’t unreasonable, though I don’t think.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Sorry...
..should have read this first.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 9, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
np, and, coming clean, I don't worry too much about PA's.
650 PA’s was my way of saying he’s gonna be an everyday player this year for the most part.
Trying to predict a player’s performance is one thing.
Trying to predict The Gut is best left up to the mystics and a few of the more non-ice dancing gays, imo.
Given a full season of playing time I think those are the numbers he’ll put up… which are very similar to the numbers he put up last year.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 9, 2010 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
Ok, that's a legitimate way to view it
Also, I think there’s still room for improvement as he’s something of a late bloomer and of a type (power hitting OF) that generally develop and peak a bit later. He’s going to be 29/30 this year and hasn’t exactly racked up the 3-4 years of PA at the MLB level that you’d need to feel incredibly comfortable in projecting for this year.
I’m not projecting that he will, but I certainly don’t think it’s out of the question.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 9, 2010 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Bill James seems very bullish on Cruz
.284/.354/.541 with 36 homers and 21 steals.
If that happens, I will be very very happy.
meta-signature
Bill James projects just about everyone to hit .284/.354/.541 with 36 homers and 21 steals
Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.
by LSJ on Mar 8, 2010 9:03 PM CST up reply actions
Bill James'
formulas are mostly crap.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
An improvement over last year but not that much
..269 average; .529 slugging. I forsee him having another very good but not spectacular season. 36 homers sounds reasonable.
I just really hope that he isnt the scariest player in our lineup
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
I love Nelly
But I’m worried about his contact rates, going back to a piece fangraphs did last year.
Part of me fears his strikeouts will balloon and he won’t be able to put enough balls in play to put up a solid year. I projected .260/330/500.
I don't see Cruz as a player who will show
improvement because of his age and …. ummm….he doesn’t seem to be a very intelligent player, buddy.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Don't you know? Bad routes = dumb
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Nelson Cruz.
I consider Josh Hamilton to be one of the most physically gifted athletes to ever play the game and Nelson Cruz isn’t very far behind him.
I should also say that Cruz seems to be reasonably intelligent off the field. Nothing ever has been whispered about him doing anything blatantly stupid and he comes from a family where education was prioritized. Thought I read that his dad is a big journalist in the DR.
Why do I say that Cruz doesn’t appear to be a very intelligent baseball player?
He’s 30 years old on July 1 this year and a player with this kind of physical ability has had one good year in The Show. How does that happen?
What I see on defense is inexcusable. It’s not just bad routes but it’s a lot of other dumb things…overrunning balls, missed cut-off throws, throwing to the wrong base, misplaying a ball in the corner and somehow fucking your ankle up in the process…what the hell?!?!
Why the hell can’t he figure out how to hit LH pitching in The Show? I know we’re not supposed to talk about This Massive Elephant in the Room because of his minor league splits but other than the freakish 40 or so plate appearances he had in 2008, he has been unable to make the proper adjustments to do this. Can you imagine what kind of player this will be if he ever figures it all out?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Does inability to figure out LH pitching constitute lack of baseball intelligence?
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
I think there are a lot of signs that he's not a very smart baseball player.
You have a player of this immense physical ability on the doorstep of his prime as a 27-28 year old on a crappy team with a terrible OF and he can’t even make the team.
Why is that?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
It's a fair topic for discussion
But here’s what I’d like to know – when you have a player with great physical tools who just hasn’t put them together, does that automatically mean has lacks baseball intelligence? Or are there cases where players don’t put it together and its not explained by physical skills or baseball intelligence? They just don’t, for some unexplainable reason.
I honestly don’t know. There are so many high-ceiling players who never achieve even half of their potential.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Why should being able to run fast in a straight line...
…be the sole determinant in predicting a player’s skill? Or some combination of being able to lift very heavy objects and run very fast in a straight line?
Seems like there would be about as good a correlation between the two as with SAT scores and college performance.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 9, 2010 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
Why doesn't Nelly seem intellegent again?
I know minorities seem scary (and dirty!), what with their baggy clothing and their love of that nonsensical rap music (Biggie Smalls! How the fuckedy fuck-fuck can a person be both big and small, you stupid dark-skins?)
My guess is this stems from a) the idea that he’s a “bad route runner” and that because of this he must be a dumb-dumb McGillicutty, and b) he strikes out a lot, and apparent perception that player’s who strike out a lot are somehow dumb. It’s amazing how low contact rates seem to always be met with an assumption of stupidity on the offending player’s part. I don’t understand it. I really don’t.
And even if we grant his stupidity (which, again, I don’t), how does this preclude him from improvement? Stupid players improve all the time. If you can show me a correlation between a player’s braininess and his capacity for improvement I’d love to see it.
The age thing I’ll grant, but I think this will be at least somewhat cancelled out by the fact that since the Cowardly Cattleman has been muzzled this year Cruz will no longer have to constantly look over his shoulder for fear that he’ll be benched in favor of the Murphsquito just because the Coward likes it when he gets to see white players play baseball or whatever.
Additionally, shouldn’t we also take into account that this is his last year of pre-arb team control? He needs to perform if he wants to make serious money next year in his first year of arb elgibilty.
After all, those dirty dumb-dumb foriegners will do anything to get their grubby little immigrant hands on our soft green American money.
I mean, you have seen Scarface, right?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Mar 9, 2010 8:37 AM CST up reply actions 6 recs
"Brooklyn's Finest" is a great track
Long live Reasonable Doubt.
by Joey Matschulat on Mar 9, 2010 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
What we have here is a stupid poster, not a stupid player.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.

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