Joe Nathan Has a Torn UCL
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 10:47 AM CST
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PrintJoe Nathan has a torn UCL, and while there is talk that he's going to try the rest and rehab route, it sounds like he's probably done for the year with Tommy John surgery.
This means the Twins have lost their closer, and given that they have playoff aspirations, one has to wonder if they might not be inclined to shop around for some bullpen help. Would a Chris Ray for Brendan Harris swap be something the Twins would be interested in? Harris would give the Rangers a legitimate utility infielder, and Ray is someone who the Rangers could afford to part with in a deal.
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Wow, bad news for the Twinkies.
i think I’d rather keep Ray and see what he has. FX2 leaving soon, CJ starting or closing, Scheppers as a starter, Feliz as a starter…who is/would have closer-ability in two years?
OTOH, this does seem to be the all-in year, and Ray was a throw in.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
There are alot of guys in our system
that could fill the role - Strop, Ogando, Beltre, Kiker, Gutierrez, Main.
I’d take the UI that will be apart of this team trying to compete for Ray, who is ultimately expendable.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
I'd like to see how pressed Minnesota is...
If the Twins decided today that for one day only they’d offer Brendan Harris for Chris Ray, I’d say the Rangers should pass. I’d like to see how Joaquin Arias can do and I know that injuries to pitchers can pile up rather quickly. If in a couple of weeks the Twins still want to make the same deal, with enough pitchers still around and Arias not forcing himself into the Rangers’ 2010 plans, then possibly. The Rangers do have a lot of pitchers who could very well help the team this year, but there are probably going to be a few expendable utility infielders around the league as well.
by YourNameHere on Mar 9, 2010 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
So far, Arias is busy forcing himself out of the Rangers' 2010 plans.
Brown as well. And the Rangers could use a quality UI, not an expendable one.
Arias is not a big leaguer -- he's terrible
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
I have heard
Scheppers name thrown in the hat for the closer role in 2013
Rusty, the bed was very soft- Clark W. Griswold
by AndrusImpersonator on Mar 9, 2010 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
I doubt it
They have Rauch who is more than capable of handling the job. Ray isn’t worth giving up Brendan Harris who is very valuable.
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
Well
I wasn’t saying they trade for Ray and make him their closer. Even if they bump Rauch up, that means a hole for your setup guy. Losing Nathan may put them in a situation where they’d want to add a pitcher like Ray to fill a role, be it setup, closer or whatever.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
Well, I just don't think they'd trade Harris
If you’re interested in Punto, they’ll listen.
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
Punto is becoming quite the valuable commodity
It’s not easy to find players who can play above average defense at SS, 2B and 3B.
Yup. I'd be surprised if the Twins were willing to move Punto cheaply,
especially more cheaply than Harris. Granted, Punto has a hard time hitting his way out of a wet paper bag, but…
Rauch has experience, but he's not that good
If I were the Twins, I’d hand it over to Guerrier in the meantime to see if he can handle it. He’s still a better option than Rauch. A bullpen guy like Ray though would help solidify a setup role or the closers role.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Ray wouldn't be a bad option if the Twins felt the need to bring someone in.
But because of the depth of our farm system, at least as far as bullpen arms are concerned, this will probably be handled internally.
The bullpen at the major league level was already a strength, and it’s likely that Gardenhire would rather go with a vet like Rauch, Guerrier or Crain first. Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama and Alex Burnett are all guys who could fill the final bullpen spot; in fact it might be the only thing that could save Perkins’ career as a Twin.
I don’t want to pretend like losing Nathan won’t hurt, because it will—he’s an elite guy in the closer’s role—but if the team can find someone internally who can handle the pressure mentally, then this is probably an injury the Twins can absorb. If this was an injury to a starter or a position player, I’d be a lot more concerned. As it is, it sucks, but I just want Nathan to do what’s best for him. The Twins will be fine.
What about trading FX2 to MIN?
I’m not real familiar with their prospects, but I believe their farm system is well thought of. I also believe that Delmon Young is currently a 4th OF for them. I haven’t studied their roster to look for a match, but the idea of seeing what Frank would get from them popped in my head as soon as I read the news.
I don't see why...
…you’d trade your closer for prospects at this point.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
It was just a thought
I understand this team is a contender for the AL West this year. But if you can get someone who is MLB-ready or nearly so, a tandem of Feliz-Wilson-O’Day-Oliver is still pretty solid for innings 7 thru 9.
I know Feliz has his most value in the rotation, but I think we can all read between the lines and can see that he’s almost assuredly going to be in the pen for 2010.
The problem is...
…that trading your closer for prospects on the eve of the season would be like telling the players that you aren’t serious about contending.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
is that just a given?
b/c it doesn’t seem as black and white to me
In fact, I think if Warsh wasn’t running around telling folks that Frank was his closer, there’d be some discussion
he was pretty bad in the 2nd half
Yep
Maybe at the deadline, you can afford to make this kind of move with a strong bullpen and a good deal forcing your hand. Right before the season starts, not the best time to trade away a big piece of your team
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
< insert lewd joke here >
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
JD's recent success with the farm system has turned some of you into prospect-addicts
If we can trade him in a package for, say, Adrian Gonzalez… that’d be one thing
but we want to go to the playoffs
To clarify
I didn’t mean trade FX2 for some catcher in A ball who will hopefully arrive in 2015.
I meant a legit AA or AAA guy who might be ready for the bigs in 2010. Or someone like Delmon Young. I know Young was subpar in 2009, but I have also read in a few places he could be due for a breakout year in 2010.
My thinking is two-fold:
1- If FX2 pitches as well in 2010 as he did in 2009, he won’t be a Ranger in 2011
2- This team WILL need an OF in 2011. Hamilton needs to be a DH at least 75% of the time once Vlad expires.
It was just a thought. I’m usually the of the mindset that trading proven guys for “potential” guys is a bad idea. But this opportunity is a little different.
No way
Do not billy beane our team to get a couple of extra prospects unless,heaven forbid, we have no chance at the playoffs at some point
I see your point
I was just thinking out loud
Sucks for MIN. I know closers are overrated by some, but Nathan is a legit stud closer.
off the top of my head
1. he’s had some injury issues recently
2. he was pretty bad in the back half last year
3. he’s not very good against lefties
Francisco reminds me a lot of Cordero, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the league catch up to Frank they way they did with Cordero
Obviously, JD’s is not pushing for this trade, but if the Twins want someone with some experience (unlikely), I’d look at an upper level prospect package and just make Wilson the closer
This kind of leads me to a line of thought I've noodled around a little lately
Might we be in contention around the trading deadline, and trade our closer? Assuming Frankie does spend the first half as our closer- and healthy- and we’re competing for a division title, I could actually see moving Frankie to a team that would flip him (for a working ML piece) or moving him for prospects (either to flip or replace prospects going out in a separate deal for said working ML piece)
I can’t think of any time that’s actually happened, but given the prospects to fill out a bullpen in the system, the odds of resigning Frankie to a decent deal are slim, and is it worth it to hold in to him for a few extra months to go from a prospect or two to a compensatory pick (assuming he’s Type B, and I’m not sure there’s a good market for him as a Type A).
Idle thoughts go to genitals, as they say.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
Well
We did that with Cordero, but that’s because he had flamed out.
Billy Beane did about a decade ago.
But I can’t imagine that, given the prospect depth this team has, the Rangers wouldn’t just deal the prospects themselves for a piece, rather than give up a closer for someone else to flip.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, the only way it makes sense
Is is they have good Elias info on his ranking as a free agent, or if there’s a really good fencing opportunity that presents itself- while our non-Frankie bullpen is steamrolling lineups, and that’s not a likely combination.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
Yea trade Cordero and we get Otsuka
We thought he had flamed out at least. Guess which one is still a closer? I still hate that trade Cruz or no Cruz
"Hell's frozen over, Pigs are flying! The Saints have won the Super Bowl"
Really?
We got two months of Carlos Lee plus two draft picks — who turned into Blake Beavan and Julio Borbon — plus Nelson Cruz for Cordero, Mench and Nix.
I don’t see what the problem with that deal was.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 1:53 PM CST up reply actions
Might of got both either way from the GMJ signing
And then maybe another in 2008 if we let Cordero go then
"Hell's frozen over, Pigs are flying! The Saints have won the Super Bowl"
The GMJ signing
Not sure what you mean there — we did get 2 picks from the GMJ signing.
I don’t understand why someone would hate that trade, particularly if you would be advocating letting him walk after 2008.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
I mean that the picks from the GMJ signing were close to the Lee ones
It was a two-month rental for an outfielder who didn’t produce much better than Mench did when we needed pitching not offense if I remember correctly.
"Hell's frozen over, Pigs are flying! The Saints have won the Super Bowl"
This seems like an obvious trade, at least to me.
Rangers deal from a position of strength (bullpen arms).
Twins deal from a position of strength (white guys).
"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010
by ghtd36 on Mar 9, 2010 11:20 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
haha now that you mention that....i never really realized that before
"Josey drives to games???
I always assumed he rides in on his high horse"
jam0152
Martin Perez, "Mucho queso"
Ray's too much of an unknown
at this point. If i were either GM in that scenario, i would want to wait and see what Ray-2010 looks like.
What about CJ?
I was going to post a fanpost asking folks to speculate on this Nathan scenario, and the thought I keep coming back to is if CJ would be of interest to the Twins and if the Rangers think they can fill CJs hole from within.
CJ is definitely interested in being “the man” of the bullpen. I can’t get a feel for whether moving CJ puts an unfillable dent in the Rangers’ bullpen.
I can’t envision a return other than prospects, which makes me think trading CJ isn’t that good of an idea. I can’t really see a match here.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
I like your thought process here, maybe a utility guy or something along those lines.
"Josey drives to games???
I always assumed he rides in on his high horse"
jam0152
Martin Perez, "Mucho queso"
This makes less sense than FX2 to me
CJ is under control for 2 years. Neither is a trade the Rangers should make
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
No kidding.
Trading Wilson for a UI right now would be absolutely crazy, and if Daniels made that deal, I’d be singing the Outlaw’s tune.
trading CJ makes more sense than trading Fx2
I wouldn’t be surprised at it either. He’s obviously immensely talented, but I can’t imagine Nolan & JD like having players dictate terms to them. If the FO feels like CJ is more trouble than he’s worth, then he would make a lot of sense to move in a deal like this. Likewise, while I can’t see the Twins making a move just for depth, they would make a move for a guy of CJ’s caliber.
Go Rice Owls!
Funny how widely different the perspective on trading CJ is.
I’m not sure what to think yet, but maybe a utility infielder and prospects would be the return on CJ, compared to just a Brendan Harris return for Ray.
It depends some, I would think, on whether the Rangers FO think they have CJ-next in Harrison.
So, the basic idea is that CJ has an ambiguous role here. He would have a clear role there — closer — and its a role he wants. He would have higher return value than Chris Ray or MadDog.
I haven’t figured out what the trade targets would be that Texas would have in mind with a CJ trade, or whether it’s a hit to their depth they feel they can take. I think they think they can deal without CJ in the bullpen, so that gives me some evidence that he could be tradable.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
A quality lefty setup man/closer...
…is worth a more than a utility guy and random prospects.
If the Rangers are serious about contending in 2010, you don’t trade C.J. or Frankie for prospects, or for a bench guy and prospects.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
I agree.
It still astonishes me how much many folks here undervalue Wilson. (Although, to be fair, it’s not just here.)
The team clearly has a surplus of pitching talent at the big league level
and while Wilson is probably the best arm in the bullpen, he’s also by far the one with the most trade value. You don’t trade him for a utility guy and a couple of mid-level prospects, but you would think about a deal for a top prospect or two. If the Twins offered Aaron Hicks and Wilson Ramos, would you say no?
Go Rice Owls!
And that's partly because I'm not as optimistic as you are
about Texas’ surplus of pitching talent at the big-league level.
Absolutely I would say "no"
We’re trying to win the division here.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
So what about a blockbuster...?
Davis, CJ, and one of the big 4 for Morneau? Where would everyone feel on that one? I am really bad at valueing trades, so this be out of wack. The money would be a pretty big issue at 14 Mil for the next three years, but he would fill a hole we have at 1st, could be a DH/1B platoon with Smoak when he comes up either late this year or next year. Vlad will be expendable after this year. Thoughts?
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
Not worth the thought
This won’t happen. Morneau won’t be traded and the Rangers shouldn’t be looking for a 1b
I guess I just disagree with how essential Wilson is to winning the division.
Despite his talent, I don’t see him as particularly that much more reliable as the numerous alternatives. Yes, in a vacuum I prefer Wilson over the other lefty bullpen arms. But the team wouldn’t be auditioning Wilson as a starter if they didn’t think he was at least at some level replaceable in the bullpen.
Go Rice Owls!
Wow, couldn't disagree more.
CJ has what, 2 years of team control left? If the Twins offer me a 5 tool CF prospect of Hicks’ caliber for him I’d bite Bill Smith’s hand off to get that done. Add in Ramos and it would be absurd to turn that down. What’s the point of building layers of pitching depth if you have to turn down deals like that?
by LiamP on Mar 9, 2010 1:00 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
yep
I’d take Hicks for CJ in a heartbeat.
Let’s not go too far in overvaluing CJ’s worth. A lefty setup guy is replaceable… it would only be a bad deal if CJ turns into a #2 type starting pitcher; but that isn’t the argument being put forth thus far…
The question, for me, is how strong a chance of winning the division
Texas has this season and next, and how large a role you think Wilson plays in that. So it’s not just a question of Wilson’s value in isolation, or even whether a pitcher with less of a track record could potentially take his place in the bullpen.
I don’t think anyone would deny that Hicks is a great prospect, but neither he nor Ramos is a sure thing, and I’d argue neither of them could be expected to be a key piece of the Rangers’ big-league puzzle until 2012.
What is the point of building a contender...
…if you are going to sell off key guys for prospects the year you are supposed to be making a run at it?
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
really?
Where would the bullpen have been last year without him?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
that was last year
How many arms are available for the pen this year?
I’m not discounting CJ’s 2009, but the thought that trading him sinks 2010… well, that seems to be a bit of an overreaction to last year’s production.
That makes him sound like he's some replacement level scrub
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
no, it really doesn't
However, go look at CJ’s WAR value up to 2009. It isn’t far off from replacement level…
The discussion is lefty set up reliever. There are arms in the Rangers camp now that can do that job, and do it well.
If the return is a prospect like Aaron Hicks, I don’t see how you don’t flip CJ for that in a heartbeat. He’ll be gone in 2 seasons anyway — if there’s a way to get a guy like Hicks… do it.
What happens if Francisco goes down, or doesn't perform?
(Just one question I have about the wisdom of trading Wilson for a couple high-ceiling prospects.)
live arms
what’s to say we wouldn’t find our “closer of the future” in this case?
A lot of live arms in camp this year… I think the Rangers have some talented guys that could close.
How certain are you that CJ didn’t “career year” last year?
To contend, Texas needs their closer of the *now*,
If the club is serious about contending this year, then Daniels putting the bullpen in the position of relying heavily on “live arms” like Feliz and Scheppers stepping up this season seems like a bad idea to me.
I’d be more willing to bet on what Wilson brings to the table than the younger guys with slim (if any) track records. But that’s just me.
worse than relying
on a guy who has been very inconsistent his entire career?
You don’t want to rely on a guy with no track record, but you’re willing to ignore CJ’s track record and focus in on a possible career year in 2009? That doesn’t sound like Snark to me…
I don't agree with your evaluation of Wilson.
I’m not focusing in on a possible career year in 2009, and I’m not ignoring Wilson’s previous seasons.
I think Wilson will be an important component of a Texas run at the division in 2010, and possibly in 2011. I think Texas has an opportunity to contend, and I think it’s very important for the club (both in the short and long term) that it make the most of those opportunities.
So, regardless of whether it’s in character, I’d prefer the Rangers not to trade him for a couple high-ceiling prospects who aren’t likely to make any sort of impact until 2012.
That’s no knock on Hicks and Ramos. It’s just that I can’t look at that deal straight up, and ignore the broader ramifications.
setup lefty
you’re talking about a lefty setup guy, who when given the opportunity to be a closer was “ok” at best.
He’s a reliever, and we’re talking about being offered a very nice prospect in Hicks for him.
I think you’re overrating Wilson’s ability as a lefty set up guy compared to other arms in camp that could do the same job. I think CJ will do fine in that role too, but I think there are other arms in camp that could do the job too.
Personally, I don’t think there’s any way in hell we’d get a guy like Hicks for CJ anyway, but Liam’s post wasn’t that he thought we could, it was what to do if we were offered that. I don’t see how you don’t make that trade — that’s a maximum value swap. There is a bit of a concern about depth, but still a CJ for Hicks deal would be a good one.
We simply disagree
about Wilson’s value with the Rangers this season. I don’t think anything new or different’s going to coming out of this exchange, but it was interesting thinking through it.
yep
and I do think Wilson has value; but I wouldn’t pass up a chance to get a talented prospect like Hicks for him.
I do hope oh so much that we get 2009 CJ again — that boy was good. :)
It isn't that trading him sinks 2010
It is that trading him, on the eve of the season, for prospects, weakens your team at the major league level at a time when you are supposedly to be trying to win the division, and sends a pretty bad message to the team about how serious you are about being a contender.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2010 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
not so sure about the message
being a “white flag” message if he’s dealt.
It certainly would fall on whoever took his place to play well, but it isn’t like we’re trading Joe Nathan. It’s CJ, and while he had a great year last season — he’s not the epitome of consistent results by any stretch.
Another part of the equation here
Is that Ceej might not be the most popular guy in the locker room, and the weird entitled chemistry factor that seems to exist here might view moving Wilson as a positive- but that’s a unique factor here. Your point still holds, that trading a major league asset for prospects doesn’t make sense for the team right now
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
Why is Wilson's role here ambiguous?
I mean, I get that there’s uncertainty, but he has a definite role as a left-handed setup guy.
He's trying out for a SP role, but he's viewed as one of the best RP options.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Sure ~ that's the uncertainty. But the fact that he's auditioning as a starter
doesn’t make me wonder if he has a role with the team. (I don’t much care what he thinks about it.)
Since Duncan is 2 seam Jesus
What about Mendoza + Garr? for Lugo?
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Sadly............
Dozer would probably be in the Top 3 of STL propsects the instant that deal was made.
They had that farm system turned around, finally, and then………BAM! DeRosa and Holliday were acquired.
This totally boned my keeper league
Still have a strong core of closers… But ouch
by vfn on Mar 9, 2010 11:42 AM CST via mobile reply actions
The Twins are obviously in dire need of a catcher, SO...
Orlando Hudson and the summer weather in Minnesota for Teagarden, CJ Wilson’s ego, Tom Hicks’ outstanding debt, and a flaming bag of poo.
And if that’s not enough, they can have all of the fans that do the wave at the Ballpark. That should even things out nicely.
by eric_hurleys_rotator_cuff on Mar 9, 2010 12:05 PM CST reply actions
I'd imagine if we trade CJ anywhere...
…it’ll be to a team that immediately inserts him into their rotation.
is it really that hard to find a pitcher to get 3 outs
with a 2-3 run lead?
"Clearly, I've been wrong. VY is awesome." - AJM
Yes.
You usually have to find 6. The first 5 are you starting pitchers, the 6th one is your closer.
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
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