Chris Davis And The Hype Machine

about 2 years ago Joey Matschulat 10 comments 3 recs |

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Very good article

Major league hitters can (and do) thrive with high strikeout totals, provided that they’re accompanied by above-average walk rates, and can survive with the combination of low walk and strikeout rates; the reason you see very, very few major league hitters with high strikeout totals and low walk rates is because very, very few of them are capable of sticking in the majors for any extended period of time with that offensive profile.

I don’t think this can be said enough. Last year, when he was struggling, I would hear people say – while arguing that he doesn’t need to go to the minors – “Chris Davis is never going to walk close to 100 times a year” and things like “we should wait and see, he’s a unique player” Well, he’s unique because the 200K/year, 50BB/year player is highly selected against in baseball development. That approach just doesn’t work very well.

I’m hoping Rudy leaving will help here, because quite simply, Chris Davis HAS to walk more, a lot more, to be a valuable player. I don’t buy that he can’t be an Adam Dunn 100-BB a year player. I don’t see why not if he can punish pitchers who pitch to him, as we know he can. But that should be the direction they’re pushing with him.

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Mar 9, 2010 7:01 PM CST reply actions

It'd be terrific if Davis turned into Dunn.

Thing is, Dunn had an impressive K/BB ratio and BB% from his debut in Billings forward. Davis’ track record on the farm was much less promising on those fronts. As Davis gains more experience, he should be expected to draw more walks ~ but I think there’s reason to be skeptical that he’ll ever approach the level Dunn’s reached. I tend to agree with the A’s (and others’) philosophy that it’s very difficult to teach those skills once a player’s reached the majors. And because Davis’ plate discipline in each of his minor-league stops was fairly average, I’m not sure Jaramillo’s departure can be expected to make as much difference as we might hope.

I’m hopeful Davis can cut down on the strikeouts while drawing more walks, and move back toward the numbers he posted in 2008. But another thing to note about that impressive debut was his .351 BABiP, and I just don’t know…

"Basically, tRA is FIP having a nightmare." ~ Matt Swartz

by Snark on Mar 9, 2010 8:53 PM CST up reply actions

Yup.

It’s also worth noting that his improvement in the second half last year was BABIP-driven as well. I don’t think he’s ever going to hit .300 over a full season.

Best case scenario I see him being similar to Mark Reynolds, only with less walks.

Morality you can fake. Fun you either have or you don't.

by LSJ on Mar 9, 2010 9:07 PM CST up reply actions

0.362 in 1222 career MiLB ABs

Just saying…but this topic has been beaten to death already, so…

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Mar 10, 2010 1:06 PM CST up reply actions

What about infield hits?

by Inkara1 on Mar 15, 2010 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I looked pretty hard

to find High-K Low-BB players who were successful, and there aren’t many of them.

Probably the best I found was Henry Rodriguez. who had a 24%K rate and an 8% BB rate for his career. During his big Cubbie years he did get his BB rate up and his K rate down.

However, It is tough to have a decent OBP with High Ks and low walks. It’s tough to say I see much out of Hurdle to think he will change things compared to Jaramillo.

"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland

by DJCahill on Mar 10, 2010 6:51 AM CST reply actions

Alfonso Soriano

He did have the one season in Washington where he walked around 60 times, but he’s been a low BB/high K player most of his career.

"Jesus, Spanish- our jobs aren't enough, now you want our words?"

-- Sterling Archer

by RCCook on Mar 10, 2010 8:36 AM CST up reply actions

I hope

Davis’ strikeout rate drops to soriano’s.

by DJCahill on Mar 10, 2010 9:27 AM CST up reply actions

There are a few other contemporary success stories in the career 0.30-0.40 BB/K range besides Rodriguez

Juan Gonzalez (0.36 BB/K, .382 wOBA), Javy Lopez (0.37 BB/K, .352 wOBA) and Pudge (0.36 BB/K, .347 wOBA) can be found in this group. Russell Branyan, I guess. Matt Williams. It’s slim pickings.

Below that 0.30 BB/K threshold, however, about the best you’re going to find is Alfonso Soriano and Andres Galarraga. I’m reasonably hopeful that Davis will make some strides in this area, but if he keeps posting one walk to every five strikeouts, he’s almost certainly not going to be the Rangers’ long-term solution at first base.

Baseball Time in Arlington

by Joey Matschulat on Mar 11, 2010 4:55 PM CST up reply actions

I'm not sure

those are great comparisons. The guys you mentioned had fairly good Batting averages, but

Juan had a K rate of 18% for his career.
Javy had a K rate of 16.7%
Pudge 14.2%

Quite simply, if Davis 24.3% minor league K rate (let alone his 32.3% major league K rate) doesn’t plunge, I just don’t see how he has a high enough BABIP to be a .290-.300 hitter like the guys you mentioned, because he damn sure isn’t going to put that many balls in play.

He also won’t have the walk rate to bring up a fairly weak average to a decent OBP, like guys like Dunn can do. I think Davis needs to be given some of this year to turn it around, but I can definitely see why some in the organization think Smoak and even Moreland are better long term bets.

Without a plunge in Ks or a huge leap in BBs, Davis will have very long odds to have a successful ML career.

by DJCahill on Mar 12, 2010 8:54 AM CST up reply actions